Can Michigan's Defense Stop Ohio State?

by user Drpatriot

I will start this article off for apologizing to those fans who are tired of hearing about this game. Unfortunately, as a faithful Michigan fan, I must present another side of the story that has not been present so far on this web site. Though many of the analyses has been good and few (The Shark's) have been great, a statistic viewpoint has not been taken yet.

The biggest controversy appears to be about whether Michigan's defense can stop Ohio State's stellar offense.

Short answer: Yes.

Long answer:

Michigan's great run defense is on a different level than any other rushing defense in the NCAA. The Wolverines have allowed 29 rushing yards per game this year. TWENTY NINE! Opponents rushing against them have gained 1.8 yards per rush on the ground. These numbers are so low that it is almost absurd. No team in recent history, other than this year's Texas Longhorns, has breached 2 yards per carry or 50 yards per game.

We remember that Texas and Ohio State played this year. How convenient! User ASwaff said in a recent comment on the article Michigan or Ohio State?:

"Michigan has a stellar rush defense, so we'll see if they get nailed the way UT's great rushing defense got nailed."

I have already shown you how the first statement he makes is true. As for Texas getting ripped up by OSU, we check the statistics for the game. As it turns out, the Buckeyes gained 79 yards on the ground. The reader must note that in the three years preceding this one, teams that allowed 79 yards on the ground per game were ranked at an average of 3rd in the NCAA standings for yards allowed. 79 yards is by no means being ripped up. The Longhorns lost because of their pass defense, ranked a measly 107th in the NFL in yards allowed per game, has allowed 20 touchdowns passing, and allowed 269 yards passing and 2 touchdowns from Troy Smith. The reader notes that Michigan's pass defense is ranked 63rd in yards allowed per game. This is by no means stellar. However, Michigan has only allowed 11 touchdowns in comparison to the Longhorns' 20.

If we assume that Troy Smith performs similarly against Michigan, and the Ohio State running game performs similarly as well, and adjust the numbers to Michigan's defensive averages of yards per game, Troy Smith gets 216 yards and 1 touchdown, and the Buckeyes rush for 57 yards. I know this isn't a perfect science and that pure statistics can't show everything, but one thing appears pretty clear to me: if Texas' defense can limit OSU to the numbers they did, Michigan can definitely do better.

But the Texas game was at the beginning of the year, you say? This means that we must look at other games that the Buckeyes have played this year. Interestingly, the games follow a sad trend for Ohio State.

Two trends appear immediately. First, and apparantly the most crucial, the Ohio State rushing game has become both vastly improved and vastly more relied upon during the last five weeks of the season. This appears to be in no small part because of the emergence of Chris Wells, who performed very well in somewhat limited opportunities at the beginning and began to take carries away from Pittman as the season went on. He has had 5 straight games with a touchdown and seems to have been an important part of the Buckeyes' offense.

Second, and more startling, is that Troy Smith has gotten increasingly worse as the season has gone on. Not only has he had almost 30 yards fewer passing per game, his completion rate has dropped by almost 5%. His touchdown rate has dropped and the interception rate has risen. Though he has lost 3 passes per game, likely a combination of playcalling and running out of the pocket more, his efficiency per pass has gone down and each of those passes he loses per game is a completion, not an incompletion.

Right now, why is Ohio State winning? Surely not because of Troy Smith.

Now let's check one last statistic before I make my final projections for the Michigan game: the defensive strength of schedule.

It seems we have a reason for the sudden jump in the Buckeyes' rushing game.

60 extra yards and half an extra touchdown per game allowed rushing for every defense faced will benefit any team. No wonder the Buckeyes were gaining...about 60 yards and half a touchdown more per game. As for the passing game, Troy Smith's numbers have dropped even though the defenses he has faced have been a little softer. Suddenly the Ohio State offense no longer looks so stellar.

Taking all of these things into account, I have made a "real" last 5 weeks of the season, in comparison to the first 6 weeks, in an attempt to show how well the Buckeyes have really been performing.

Statistics with ** next to them haven't been changed.

Real yards passed and rushed have been adjusted based on actual number of completions and rushes.

Now the OSU offense really doesn't seem stellar.

Finally, my projections for the Michigan game, applying Michigan's passing and rushing ypg/TD rates to the "real" statistics.

Interestingly, the impenetrable rushing defense of Michigan appears to get trashed, or at least by their standards. However, the defense looks like it will be holding the Buckeyes' offense to two touchdowns. And to me, that definitely seems like Michigan's defense will stop Ohio State.

Remember that these are only projections. To some (mostly OSU fans), this is the worst-possible scenario. To me, this is the statistical average outcome that could occur during the game. All I know is that the Michigan defense, according to these statistics, should be able to hold the Ohio State offense under 20 points without any problems and prevent the shootout that everyone seems to be predicting. So here is my bold prediction: A low-scoring game where Michigan pulls it out in the end, 21-17.

The sharkDraft Pick

1109 days ago

Score 4

Great work. You didn't change my mind but great research.

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Davis21wylieMVP

1108 days ago

Score 1

Agreed, great work. However, I just can't get past one stat - Michigan: .891 Pythagorean W% (probably the best predictor of future results), Ohio State: .974. However, Michigan has played the tougher schedule, so that could partially explain the discrepancy. Either way, it will be a great game...

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The sharkDraft Pick

1108 days ago

Score 1

D21W - Can you show me an example of this Pyth % please?

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Davis21wylieMVP

1108 days ago

Score 2

Okay, here goes:

Ohio State has scored 394 points this season, allowing only 86. You plug those values into this formula:

(Points Scored^2.37)
Win% = ----------------------------------------------
((Points Scored^2.37) + (Points Allowed^2.37))

And come out with:

(394^2.37)
Win% = ------------------------ = .974
((394^2.37) + (86^2.37))

Daryl Morey, now the assistant GM of the Houston Rockets, came up with this football adaptation of Bill James' classic "pythagorean formula"... It's generally a better predictor of next season's win % than win % in the current season is, so we know it works, more or less.

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The sharkDraft Pick

1108 days ago

Score 1

Thanks!!

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ASwaffAll-American

1108 days ago

Score 2

Patriot, I don't know if you missed my point, read only one sentence, or intentionally misconstrued my quote to make your point, but I think that what I said bears repeating. While I did say what you quoted in this article, I immediately followed it by saying:

"UT could do nothing to stop the pass against Ohio State. That will be the key for Michigan, in my opinion. If they can contain the pass and make Ohio State try to run the ball, they stand a chance."

I know UT held them to 79 yards on the ground. Only one team has rushed for more than 100 yards against Texas this year, and that's Oklahoma. Even then, Texas held Adrian Peterson to 109 yards, well below his per-game average of 156. My point wasn't that UT got shredded on the run, it was that they were so keyed on the run that they got shredded by OSU's passing attack. If Michigan can neutralize their passing attack in the way that UT couldn't, I know they'll be able to stop the run. That's what I was saying.

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DrpatriotAll-American

1108 days ago

Score 0

I didn't miss your point in the original article. However, I was unaware at the time that when you said "ripped up" the Texas defense, you only meant 79 yards. I figured that the average reader would not know this either, and wanted to point it out. I figured you meant somewhere around 150 yards. In this sort of debate, where a good rushing defense getting shredded for 79 or 150 yards makes a difference as to my own predictions for the game, I thought it was important to clarify. I didn't intend to misrepresent what you said, just to clarify this piece of data.

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ASwaffAll-American

1108 days ago

Score 0

Well, I don't consider 79 yards ripping them up. Again, my point wasn't that they got ripped up rushing. Their rushing defense got ripped up because they were so keyed on stopping the run (which they did) that Ohio State was able to dominate them through the air.

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

1108 days ago

Score -1

I don't know if Michigan's defense could stop OSU, but Rutger's defense surely could!!!

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ASwaffAll-American

1108 days ago

Score 1

lol...right.

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Ojingalena

1108 days ago

Score 1

you name says it all

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Anonymous Fanatic #2

1108 days ago

Score 1

Not sure how statistically significant some of the numbers are? 5% drop in completion %, eh, OK, somewhat perhaps. But a .1 diff in int/game is not significant. And 30 less yards per game throwing makes perfect sense when you consider they are rushing more. How about Troy Smith's individual rush numbers over that time? I would think that will be a v. important aspect on Saturday, his ability or inability to avoid the outstanding Michigan front four...

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DrpatriotAll-American

1108 days ago

Score 1

Ask and you shall receive.

Troy Smith's rushing numbers greatly increased between the first time period and the second time period. However, they still were not great. He had 29 rushes for 78 yards (2.7 ypc) during the first 6 weeks and had 29 rushes for 143 yards (4.9 ypc) during the last 5 weeks. Using the same technique used for the overall Ohio State rushing game but comparing his overall percentage of carries to those in other games, his rushing numbers end up around 6 rushes, 4 yards. This seems wildly inaccurate, as the rushing data used has been defense vs. runningback, not defense vs. quarterback. As the Wolverines have not really faced a mobile quarterback yet this year, we turn to previous years when the Wolverines have faced Smith.

In 2005, Troy Smith had 11 rushes for 34 yards against a defense that gave up 136.1 rushing yards per game. In 2004, Troy Smith had 18 rushes for 145 yards against a defense that gave up 121.5 yards per game. This puts him on an average of having 14 rushes for 90 yards against a defense that gave up 128.8 rushing yards per game. These numbers adjusted to Michigan's current statistic of 29.9 ypg puts Smith around 14 rushes, 21 yards tomorrow. Adjusted to Smith's recent average of 6 rushes per game, he is projected to have 9 yards on the ground on Saturday.

Admittedly, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, as the rushing ypg does not specifically separate quarterback rushes from runningback rushes and there may be no correlation between the two whatsoever. Despite this, I will say that all statistical methods within reach suggest that Smith is not poised for a huge game on the ground on Saturday.

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ASwaffAll-American

1107 days ago

Score 0

I know it's a different team and a different year, but I wonder about Michigan's rush defense this season. Supposedly, they had an amazing rush defense in 2004 that manhandled one-dimensional teams. I remember talking to Michigan fans that year because they wouldn't listen to me when I said they hadn't faced a rushing combo like Vince Young and Cedric Benson before. Again, I know this team is different than the one in 2004, and I'm certain their rushing defense is MUCH better, as some teams ran wild on them that year (Michigan State went for 368). But, I can't help but always wonder if the team that held Notre Dame to four yards rushing will show up, or if it will be the team from two years ago that let Vince Young account for 372 yards of total offense, including 192 yards rushing (average of 9.1 yards per carry).

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Anonymous Fanatic #2

1107 days ago

Score 1

Thanks for the answer, DrPat. I suppose the other obvious factor and one that is pratcially impossible to quantify, is Troy Smith's scrambling ability: even if he can't get positive rushing yards, if he's able to get out of the pocket to avoid rush and throw downfield then obviously that is a huge edge for Ohio, correlationally, if Michigan can contain him, the opposite holds true.

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Ojingalena

1108 days ago

Score 1

Nice work.

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The sharkDraft Pick

1105 days ago

Score 0

The answer to the question posed: apparently not

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