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By Popular Demand... NL Playoff Odds

15
Vote

by user Davis21wylie

Okay, just like Junior Seau, I'm coming out of retirement... I heard clamoring for NL Playoff Odds graphs, so I'll post those, short and sweet. It's probably not enough content for some people, but whatever.

Contents

  • 1 East
  • 2 Central
  • 3 West
    • 3.1 Date

East

Image:NLEastOdds.jpg

Boy, the Braves faded in August. And I wonder what the record is for quickest to 90% playoff probability, because the Mets must be close -- they passed that milestone on June 10th, and never looked back.

Here's the 4th-order polynomial regression version of the same graph, as requested by DNL:

Image:NLEastOddsPoly.jpg

Central

Image:NLCentralOdds.jpg

Okay, this one's a little hard to read. The Cardinals are in black, the Reds are in red, the Brewers are in dark blue, the Astros are in that weird brownish color, the Cubs are in royal blue, and the Pirates are in yellow-gold... Interestingly, Roger Clemens came back on June 22, but Houston's odds have been only marginally better since his return. If only he could hit, too... Oddly enough, the Brewers' graph looks a lot like the 2005 Orioles'.

Again, the polynomial regression:

Image:NLCentralOddsPoly.jpg

West

Image:NLWestOdds.jpg

Hardest-to-read. Graph. Ever. Dodgers are in royal blue, Padres are in "dark teal", Diamondbacks are in regular teal, Giants are in orange, and the Rockies are purple... Wild, wild graph. L.A. was at only 7.2% as recently as July 27, but a 23-7 streak has brought them back from the brink. The Padres are still lurking, though... As a statistical sidenote, the D-Backs had one of the highest-variance graphs of any team. Just for your edification.

And the regression:

Image:NLWestOddsPoly.jpg

Well, that's it. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm signing a one-day contract so I can retire a 49er.


Date

Wed 08/30/06, 4:35 pm EST


Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
DNLLegend
1169 days ago
Score 1+-
Can you come out of retirement to normalize the graphs? I'd love to see a smoothed out version of the NL West one.
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
1169 days ago
Score 0+-
I'll do it after classes today.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
1168 days ago
Score 0+-
...And there you have it.
Permalink
SashaDiv-I Stud
1169 days ago
Score 0+-
By that graph the D-Backs are due for a big September.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1169 days ago
Score 0+-
My bad, I was a little cranky yesterday. I didn't rip you D21dub, just people's reliance/need to have data displayed in chart form vs. using common freeking sense.

I had a presentation at work recently during which I slipped in the statement "we put the data in these pretty charts basically to distract you from the total lack of content" which was 100% true and no one batted an eye.

I apologize to everyone who isn't/doesn't like me...
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
1169 days ago
Score 1+-
Aw, you know I can't stay mad at you, Manny. Besides, we need to save the real beefing for your fantasy league... which I am going to dominate! :)
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
1169 days ago
Score 2+-
nice... details on the draft-only league will be forthcoming soon...

BTW... I always liked this one (my first image upload, hopefully it works...)

Image:Piechart.gif
Permalink
RoblefkoLegend
1169 days ago
Score 0+-
It's increidble how the marlins have never been over 10%. What are they, 2 games out?
Permalink | Reply
Bball3345Draft Pick
1169 days ago
Score 0+-
that's due to the terrible preseason predictions
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #1
1160 days ago
Score 0+-
http://www.coolstandings.com does these graphs for you, and they're updated daily. Cool polynomial regression, though.
Permalink | Reply
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This page was last modified 16:30, 31 August 2006. Content is available under the GFDL.

Categories: Opinions | National League Opinions | Atlanta Braves Opinions | Philadelphia Phillies Opinions | New York Mets Opinions | MLB Opinions | Washington Nationals Opinions | Florida Marlins Opinions | Chicago Cubs Opinions | St. Louis Cardinals Opinions | Milwaukee Brewers Opinions | Los Angeles Dodgers Opinions | Houston Astros Opinions | Pittsburgh Pirates Opinions | Cincinnati Reds Opinions | San Francisco Giants Opinions | Colorado Rockies Opinions | Arizona Diamondbacks Opinions | San Diego Padres Opinions | August 30, 2006 | Opinions by User Davis21wylie

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