Braves Deal LaRoche to Pittsburgh for Mike Gonzalez

I have no idea:

Year	Age	Games	AB	HITS	DBL	TRP	HR	BB	EqA	VORP	AVG	OBP	SLG	TB	RC	RC /25
2007	27	148	481	140	35	0	33	53	0.303	47.6	0.291	0.361	0.569	274	99	7.23
2008	28	150	488	131	34	1	35	49	0.289	37.1	0.269	0.335	0.554	270	91	6.35
2009	29	155	499	135	34	0	38	52	0.293	41.9	0.270	0.339	0.571	285	96	6.62
2010	30	153	505	138	34	1	35	52	0.291	40.0	0.273	0.340	0.553	279	95	6.47
2011	31	154	491	131	32	0	33	51	0.285	34.6	0.267	0.335	0.537	264	89	6.15
2012	32	154	491	126	31	0	30	50	0.275	26.2	0.257	0.326	0.505	248	81	5.55
2013	33	153	479	122	29	0	28	53	0.272	23.5	0.254	0.329	0.489	234	77	5.39
2014	34	152	474	120	28	0	26	47	0.267	19.7	0.254	0.321	0.478	226	73	5.14
2015	35	152	467	114	26	0	23	49	0.259	13.7	0.245	0.316	0.450	210	66	4.72
2016	36	81	227	55	13	0	10	23	0.253	4.7	0.241	0.311	0.433	98	30	4.43
2017	37	31	69	16	3	0	3	7	0.239	0.1	0.226	0.298	0.394	27	8	3.79
Career		1882	5937	1574	393	6	358	606	0.280	364.1	0.265	0.333	0.514	3055	1018	5.83

Looks pretty good to me. And certainly worth the $3.7 million he asked for in arbitration yesterday...

How accurate are these long-term projections. Come on now, we are starting to lose perspective & reality when we start throwing out wild numbers.

I would venture that they're not super-accurate, since Bill James invented the process back in the mid-1980s (I don't need to tell you that the game has changed a lot since then), and he wasn't really all that confident in them back then. But they can be fun to look at, and I feel safe in saying that they approximate the general career trend for most players. It's all in good fun, just like when they said Ryan Howard would swat 806 career homers!

I should have a disclaimer: I make no claim to the accuracy of these projections. Use at your own risk. Use of said projections will still make you a better GM than Bill Bavasi...

Early 80's. I still have a beaten up copy Bill James' Baseball Abstract where he projected guys who would hit 500 Home Runs and Mike Schmidt fell just short, while Bob Horner and Dale Murphy were projected to both clear 500... go "figure"

Hey Davis, have you ever tested the accuracy of those stats? Is it possible to take someone like Manny or A-Rod and use stats from 5 eyars ago to see if they if they came anywhere close to what actually happened?

I'll do the projection for each, after their third season as a regular (100+ G).

Manny:

Actual
Year	Ag	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB
1993	21	CLE	AL	22	53	5	9	1	0	2	5	2
1994	22	CLE	AL	91	290	51	78	22	0	17	60	42
1995	23	CLE	AL	137	484	85	149	26	1	31	107	75
1996	24	CLE	AL	152	550	94	170	45	3	33	112	85
1997	25	CLE	AL	150	561	99	184	40	0	26	88	79
1998	26	CLE	AL	150	571	108	168	35	2	45	145	76
1999	27	CLE	AL	147	522	131	174	34	3	44	165	96
2000	28	CLE	AL	118	439	92	154	34	2	38	122	86
2001	29	BOS	AL	142	529	93	162	33	2	41	125	81
2002	30	BOS	AL	120	436	84	152	31	0	33	107	73
2003	31	BOS	AL	154	569	117	185	36	1	37	104	97
2004	32	BOS	AL	152	568	108	175	44	0	43	130	82
2005	33	BOS	AL	152	554	112	162	30	1	45	144	80
2006	34	BOS	AL	130	449	79	144	27	1	35	102	100

Brock2
Year	Ag	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB
1993	21	CLE	AL	22	53	5	9	1	0	2	5	2
1994	22	CLE	AL	91	290	51	78	22	0	17	60	42
1995	23	CLE	AL	137	484	85	149	26	1	31	107	75
1996	24	CLE	AL	152	550	94	170	45	3	33	112	85
1997	25	CLE	AL	150	561	99	184	40	0	26	88	79
1998	26	CLE	AL	157	574	107	182	43	1	35	113	82
1999	27	CLE	AL	154	564	113	189	43	1	36	117	83
2000	28	CLE	AL	155	559	103	177	40	1	39	118	75
2001	29	BOS	AL	158	568	102	176	39	1	41	121	78
2002	30	BOS	AL	156	567	99	178	40	1	38	116	75
2003	31	BOS	AL	156	552	92	171	38	1	36	111	73
2004	32	BOS	AL	155	548	83	164	36	1	33	103	71
2005	33	BOS	AL	154	535	77	157	34	0	30	96	73
2006	34	BOS	AL	153	528	72	156	34	0	28	92	65

And A-Rod:

Actual
Year	Ag	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB
1994	18	SEA	AL	17	54	4	11	0	0	0	2	3
1995	19	SEA	AL	48	142	15	33	6	2	5	19	6
1996	20	SEA	AL	146	601	141	215	54	1	36	123	59
1997	21	SEA	AL	141	587	100	176	40	3	23	84	41
1998	22	SEA	AL	161	686	123	213	35	5	42	124	45
1999	23	SEA	AL	129	502	110	143	25	0	42	111	56
2000	24	SEA	AL	148	554	134	175	34	2	41	132	100
2001	25	TEX	AL	162	632	133	201	34	1	52	135	75
2002	26	TEX	AL	162	624	125	187	27	2	57	142	87
2003	27	TEX	AL	161	607	124	181	30	6	47	118	87
2004	28	NYY	AL	155	601	112	172	24	2	36	106	80
2005	29	NYY	AL	162	605	124	194	29	1	48	130	91
2006	30	NYY	AL	154	572	113	166	26	1	35	121	90

Brock2
Year	Ag	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB
1994	18	SEA	AL	17	54	4	11	0	0	0	2	3
1995	19	SEA	AL	48	142	15	33	6	2	5	19	6
1996	20	SEA	AL	146	601	141	215	54	1	36	123	59
1997	21	SEA	AL	141	587	100	176	40	3	23	84	41
1998	22	SEA	AL	161	686	123	213	35	5	42	124	45
1999	23	SEA	AL	156	649	130	215	41	4	38	127	47
2000	24	SEA	AL	157	653	127	210	37	5	41	130	48
2001	25	TEX	AL	152	623	127	204	38	4	40	127	49
2002	26	TEX	AL	157	641	138	212	38	4	48	142	50
2003	27	TEX	AL	154	623	147	214	39	4	52	149	54
2004	28	NYY	AL	155	619	132	200	36	3	54	148	47
2005	29	NYY	AL	159	625	134	200	36	3	58	156	52
2006	30	NYY	AL	156	621	130	201	36	3	55	150	50

I just think these things are a lot of fun. Obviously they're going to be wrong more than they're right (especially when we're talking about years down the road), but to me it's incredibly cool to project out what a Ryan Howard might do over the next ten years, or to look at guys who got injured (Tony Conigliaro, Ken Griffey Jr., etc.) and see what they might have been if they stayed healthy. Here, I've got one more...

Barry Bonds...

'Roids Version
Year	Ag	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB
1986	21	PIT	NL	113	413	72	92	26	3	16	48	65
1987	22	PIT	NL	150	551	99	144	34	9	25	59	54
1988	23	PIT	NL	144	538	97	152	30	5	24	58	72
1989	24	PIT	NL	159	580	96	144	34	6	19	58	93
1990	25	PIT	NL	151	519	104	156	32	3	33	114	93
1991	26	PIT	NL	153	510	95	149	28	5	25	116	107
1992	27	PIT	NL	140	473	109	147	36	5	34	103	127
1993	28	SFG	NL	159	539	129	181	38	4	46	123	126
1994	29	SFG	NL	112	391	89	122	18	1	37	81	74
1995	30	SFG	NL	144	506	109	149	30	7	33	104	120
1996	31	SFG	NL	158	517	122	159	27	3	42	129	151
1997	32	SFG	NL	159	532	123	155	26	5	40	101	145
1998	33	SFG	NL	156	552	120	167	44	7	37	122	130
1999	34	SFG	NL	102	355	91	93	20	2	34	83	73
2000	35	SFG	NL	143	480	129	147	28	4	49	106	117
2001	36	SFG	NL	153	476	129	156	32	2	73	137	177
2002	37	SFG	NL	143	403	117	149	31	2	46	110	198
2003	38	SFG	NL	130	390	111	133	22	1	45	90	148
2004	39	SFG	NL	147	373	129	135	27	3	45	101	232
2005	40	SFG	NL	14	42	8	12	1	0	5	10	9
2006	41	SFG	NL	130	367	74	99	23	0	26	77	115
All Natural
Year	Ag	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB
1986	21	PIT	NL	113	413	72	92	26	3	16	48	65
1987	22	PIT	NL	150	551	99	144	34	9	25	59	54
1988	23	PIT	NL	144	538	97	152	30	5	24	58	72
1989	24	PIT	NL	159	580	96	144	34	6	19	58	93
1990	25	PIT	NL	151	519	104	156	32	3	33	114	93
1991	26	PIT	NL	153	510	95	149	28	5	25	116	107
1992	27	PIT	NL	140	473	109	147	36	5	34	103	127
1993	28	SFG	NL	159	539	129	181	38	4	46	123	126
1994	29	SFG	NL	112	391	89	122	18	1	37	81	74
1995	30	SFG	NL	144	506	109	149	30	7	33	104	120
1996	31	SFG	NL	158	517	122	159	27	3	42	129	151
1997	32	SFG	NL	159	532	123	155	26	5	40	101	145
1998	33	SFG	NL	156	552	120	167	44	7	37	122	130
1999	34	SFG	NL	102	355	91	93	20	2	34	83	73
2000	35	SFG	NL	136	470	119	134	32	4	34	99	100
2001	36	SFG	NL	129	441	104	120	27	3	34	93	87
2002	37	SFG	NL	138	468	95	121	28	3	29	86	91
2003	38	SFG	NL	139	465	100	129	29	3	30	90	87
2004	39	SFG	NL	143	472	77	114	25	2	24	75	86
2005	40	SFG	NL	75	226	41	60	13	1	12	38	40
2006	41	SFG	NL	98	284	48	71	15	1	13	45	48

Ooh, here's another great one:

What Cincinnati Got:
Year	Ag	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB
1989	19	SEA	AL	127	455	61	120	23	0	16	61	44
1990	20	SEA	AL	155	597	91	179	28	7	22	80	63
1991	21	SEA	AL	154	548	76	179	42	1	22	100	71
1992	22	SEA	AL	142	565	83	174	39	4	27	103	44
1993	23	SEA	AL	156	582	113	180	38	3	45	109	96
1994	24	SEA	AL	111	433	94	140	24	4	40	90	56
1995	25	SEA	AL	72	260	52	67	7	0	17	42	52
1996	26	SEA	AL	140	545	125	165	26	2	49	140	78
1997	27	SEA	AL	157	608	125	185	34	3	56	147	76
1998	28	SEA	AL	161	633	120	180	33	3	56	146	76
1999	29	SEA	AL	160	606	123	173	26	3	48	134	91
2000	30	CIN	NL	145	520	100	141	22	3	40	118	94
2001	31	CIN	NL	111	364	57	104	20	2	22	65	44
2002	32	CIN	NL	70	197	17	52	8	0	8	23	28
2003	33	CIN	NL	53	166	34	41	12	1	13	26	27
2004	34	CIN	NL	83	300	49	76	18	0	20	60	44
2005	35	CIN	NL	128	491	85	148	30	0	35	92	54
2006	36	CIN	NL	109	428	62	108	19	0	27	72	39

What Cincinnati Thought They Were Getting:
Year	Ag	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB
1989	19	SEA	AL	127	455	61	120	23	0	16	61	44
1990	20	SEA	AL	155	597	91	179	28	7	22	80	63
1991	21	SEA	AL	154	548	76	179	42	1	22	100	71
1992	22	SEA	AL	142	565	83	174	39	4	27	103	44
1993	23	SEA	AL	156	582	113	180	38	3	45	109	96
1994	24	SEA	AL	111	433	94	140	24	4	40	90	56
1995	25	SEA	AL	72	260	52	67	7	0	17	42	52
1996	26	SEA	AL	140	545	125	165	26	2	49	140	78
1997	27	SEA	AL	157	608	125	185	34	3	56	147	76
1998	28	SEA	AL	161	633	120	180	33	3	56	146	76
1999	29	SEA	AL	160	606	123	173	26	3	48	134	91
2000	30	CIN	NL	158	615	124	177	30	3	50	136	81
2001	31	CIN	NL	157	592	111	167	26	2	45	123	82
2002	32	CIN	NL	157	589	101	161	26	2	42	117	78
2003	33	CIN	NL	155	572	94	154	25	2	39	109	80
2004	34	CIN	NL	154	564	88	152	24	2	37	105	72
2005	35	CIN	NL	153	554	79	144	23	2	33	97	73
2006	36	CIN	NL	152	546	73	140	22	1	31	91	69

The 2000, 01, 02 seasons for Manny were really close. That's pretty cool.

Yeah, $3.7 million is way too much to pay for 32 jacks and a .915 OPS from your first baseman...

When I revamped the old Bill James spreadsheet (to put in EqA and VORP), I deleted those columns by mistake! Next time, I'll try to dig up the master copy, which predicts runs scored and RBI...

Maybe Schuerholz doesn't think he's the real deal, and is trading him at the peak of his perceived value...

Adam LaRoche has a condition that makes him seem very lazy and almost asleep at times, he's not a very Rah-Rah guy. Gonzalez is a cheap, serviceable lefty... What team owned by a cash-strapped souless corporation WOULDN'T make this trade???

I didn't know Lillibridge was the throw-in -- he's a pretty decent prospect. Good defense, great plate discipline, lacks power but definitely can hit for contact... Kind of on the old side for A ball (22) last year, but could be a (much?) better version of Wilson himself someday. Good call, Bball.

Damn.

Wrong reply. As in, "Damn, Lillbridge is good"? Nope, that doesn't really work...

Whoops, user error. I should predicted A-Rod to the Yankees back in 2K1, and Manny to just quit and go back to the Dominican by 2003... Bonds' projection uses real stats up until the steroid effects kicked in in 2000, I should have made that clearer. Kenny Griff uses real stats through '99 as well, to show how utterly his career derailed after that season...

Get it? "Clearer"?

I get it.. it's not funny. Bonds took HGH, and testosterone precursors (and may have snorted dried leprechaun brains), NOT steroids. get it right punk =P I think I might try and become the Bonds version of "Derek Jeter fan" for some random fun and antagonization.

Haha, I forgot you were a Bonds guy. Personally, I don't care what he took, and I think it's funny to hear the knee-jerk moral outcry at the mere mention of BB's name. Asterisk-worthy or not, the man could/can rake. And you know I loves me some walks... Is my indifference toward Bonds inconsistent with my criticisms of Shawne Merriman earlier this week? Yeah. But Bonds never faced the Red Sox in the playoffs, either. So there.

Here's a fanbox for you, Manny:

I don't love him, but I appreciate his game. I know alot of people who know him personally (the Giants train in Scottsdale and he went to ASU) and from what I can gather, he's actually a pretty nice guy for a total asshole. I'm sure we have a lot in common. I want to become an over the top fan of a few things this year (wait til you see what I have planned), you know to try it out for a while... maybe Barry is my guy! Maybe he is... (tapping side of head and staring off to space)

Or maybe:

Give it up for Captain Clutchmeister!

nice box, DDub! (I bet you get that from all the guys) But I'm not a fanbox slut! Oh wait, Yes, yes I am...

Ever counted your fanboxes? Who has more, you or me?

I've got 102.

Beat that.

Woe woe woe! Jeter? Let's not fall down and hit our heads on things!! Psst.. I'll tell you a secret... (<whisper>/font) I actually think Jeter is good! (<whisper>/font)

Jeter is not among the 102, for your information.

Show me your boxes and I'll show you mine???

Neil, I never knew this about you...

109!!!! And I'm adding Bonds!!! 110!!!

110? Holy crap, Lois!

and people tell me I'm not a fan of anything... hee hee! I now plan on having 200+ boxes by the Spring equinox.

You're going to have to start being fans of some really crappy players to get 200... "Mario Mendoza Fan", anyone?

I created 90 of the 110 I currently display...

I'm a fan of some weird things, I won't run out of ideas. I've forgotten, remembered and re-forgotten some boxes I wanted to add...

I might make a "Fan of LaRoche-Gonzales trade" since I mucked this article up with comments

Do it and I'll add it, too.

I split the difference:

(Trades Fan)

and (Player To Be Named Later Fan)

Template:Player To Be Named Later Fan

Ooops, just (Player To Be Named Fan)