Bowl Winners Addendum

I am just curious: for the bowls with teams with the same record, what is the winning % of that sub-category based on Better Point Differential, Better Offense, and Better Defense? -ArmchairGM user

Ask and you shall receive.

When bowl teams have the same record the winning percentages for each category are as follows:

Better Point Differential: 14-20 .412

Better Conference Record: 8-10 .444

Better Offense: 14-20 .412

Better Defense: 21-13 .618

When teams have the same overall record, better defense remains a good predictor of bowl winners (actually increasing from .581 when overall record is discounted). However, the other three measures all decline in their ability to pick winners, especially point differential and better offense. I wouldn't draw any dramatic conclusions from this because the sample size is quite small. What do you think?

Date

Mon 07/24/06, 3:04 pm EST

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ChristofMVP

1227 days ago

Score 1

That is I who asked that question!!! So it looks like the old saying, "defense wins championships" holds true in bowl games! :)

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Madproof9Red-Shirting

1227 days ago

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That's why USC lost to Texas, and almost lost 5 times during the regular season. Sure, you can score 55 points a game, but then you give up 45 to Fresno State, 28 to ASU, 41 to Texas, etc. It doesn't matter if you have the best offense in the country, if you don't have the D to back it up, you'll end up losing 41-38 in the Rose Bowl.

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