Blue Jays and the Playoffs? In a word, No Way!
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by user The shark
This weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays went to south Florida to play a 3-game series with the AAA Florida Marlins. The result? The Jays came out of it without a win. The result of this 3-game series is not the reason that I'm confused by all of the "watch out for Toronto" talk I've been hearing lately. But it does serve quite nicely to accentuate my point. That point is this: this is not a playoff-caliber team. Period.
Granted, they are better this year. A lot better. In fact, this is arguably the best team they've had in Toronto since Joe Carter's mammoth walk-off blast brought a second straight title to the Great White North in 1993.
Vernon Wells seems poised to make a run at an MVP Award, Alex Rios is making a case for himself as the most exciting young player in the American League, Troy Glaus is on pace for a splendid season. And ex-Red Sox Shea Hillenbrand is producing as consistently as he ever has. As a team, the Jays own one of the most dangerous offenses in all of baseball. They lead the AL in batting average, home runs, and slugging percentage. Obviously, the reason for my skepicism is not the offense.
The issue here is the pitching. Outside of Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay (8-2, 2.94) and shut-down closer B.J. Ryan (17/18 saves, 0.53), this team has massive question marks. Remove those two guys from the picture and Toronto's team ERA is 5.45 which is good for 13th out of 14 in the AL (just ahead of the Kansas City Royals). Ted Lilly (6-7, 4.12), rookie Casey Janssen (5-5, 4.50), raggedy-armed Josh Towers (1-8, 9.00), and Gustavo Chacin (6-2, 5.61) are all extremely dicey propositions. Lilly, Towers, and Chacin have combined to surrender 40 longballs between them already this year.
The bullpen does not look any better. Besides Ryan and Justin Speier (2.73), there isn't an ERA in the group below 4.68 (Taubenheim). In fact, there are 6 relievers who have thrown 19 innings or more with an ERA over 5.00. That's, quite simply, not going to get it done.
This is a team with a very strong offense, and really subpar pitching. For that reason, this team will not even come close to the playoffs this year. But hey, there's always next year.
Date
Mon 06/19/06, 4:09 am EST
Seriosuly, though, there's no way the Jays can survive the long haul. The AL East is very good, with even Baltimore and TB being able to scare teams and put up a fight. The Jays simply can't win enough games to come in second in the AL East, which precludes them from making the playoffs. And even if they magically do win enough games to finish #2, the WC isn't going to be easy to get, with two very hot AL Central teams as the early leaders.