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I say they finish above .500. Their rotation isn't that bad. Towers is gonna be better than average and ted Lilly will make a good number 5, unfortuantely it looks like he'll be pitching in the 3 spot. Their offense has some bright spots and I think Reed and Russ will perform better than you are projecting. They both performed admirably in the minors and should be able to improve across the board. Reed actually had a good year in 2003, too bad you didn't show those stats. As for the standins, I agree it will be tough to beat out the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Russ Adams might perform better but I don't know about Reed Johnson. I like Towers, as I said, but Lilly struggles mightily with the HR ball. Their offense does have some bright spots(Glaus, Wells, maybe Overbay) but they also have what I see as major holes(Reed Johnson, Alexis Rios) and a lot of mediocrity. This team cannot afford any injuries because it lacks depth. Unless of course that inury is to Reed Johnson, then they can play Catalanatto:)

I agree with you there, they do lack depth. How are Rios and Hill defensively?

Rios has tremendous speed and can cover RF very well. Overall, he is definitely an above average fielder. Hill is interesting. As a minor leaguer, he was a SS and a solid one at that. In the MLB last year, he mainly played 3B with a little SS and 2B. In relatively small sample sizes, he was above average as a 3B and as a SS he was average. This year he will be playing 2B, which, in his 22 games last year, he dominated. Rate is a BaseballProspectus stat that measures the amount of runs above or below average per 100 games for a fielder. Average is 100 and Hill was a 120 at 2B last year. Mazeroski's highest season was a 119, so Hill probably won't repeat that number; however, it definitely sparks some confidence.

how can you think that this team, with all their improvements and their solid overall pitching has the same projected record as last year's squad. First, halladay was injuried for a large part of the season, which impacted their record, secondly wells had no protection in the line-up which created unneccessary pressure on him to be the 'clean-up' guy, which now we have. Now i know that injuries affect every team, but this was halladay is our 'ace' so its different when he goes down. Now, i think some of your predictions of the players are very conservative. I think reed is an alright player, but he gets less efficient with more ab, so hes good in short amounts, i think aaron hill and russ adams are better then what you think they are. I want to make one thing clear, hinske and hillenbrend are not the same, hillenbrand is a much better hitter with a little more consistenceny, hinske goes for the long ball, but hillenbrand drives it hard usually although he is prone to being very streaky. I think we got at least average depth considering our starting catcher is now our backup and we got catalanatto is back up as well as hinske. Our bullpen is above average, i think our pitching staff is strong, but their is serious potiential for everybody not to live up to their invidividual potiential and this could lead to a 'halladay and everybody else' rotation. And you say a line-up without power, but lets look at the CHIGAGO WHITE SOXS. i think they won the world series with STRONG pitching and chemistry. I think we have a bit of both, the red-sox and the yankees in my opionion have gotten weaker overall, and this may the year the bluejays might make a run at second and maybe even first. The orieos dont have a chance. The devel rays need pitching. GO BLUE JAYS!

the previous comment was by rafeal araujo

Thanks for the double post...just kidding. But seriously, the White Sox, if I am not mistaken had quite a bit of power. "Reed is an alright player but he gets less efficient with more ABs"...I don't know how that is a defense but okay. My point in Hinske and Hillenbrand being similar hitters is that if you look at their final stats for the year, they are extremely close. Whether or not one swings for the long ball or not I don't really know. I can just judge based on what they produced last year. While I am not a believer in chemistry so much, why would it be assumed a team with a bunch of additions to the team would have great chemistry? Well, I admire your loyalty to the Blue Jays anyways.

To be honest, I'd take the Jays rotation over the Yanks rotation. If Schilling and Beckett are healthy though, they should be the narstiest of the AL East. LETS GO METS!!

Agreed, but the lineups of the Yanks and Sox will probably score 100 or so more runs.

good point

I agree catcher is deep with Molina and Zaun. Yes, Catalanatto is a very strong bench player but he should be starting over Reed Johnson and, as I said, Johnson is a very poor hitter.

By the way, White Sox were 5th in the Majors last year in HRs. They were advertised as a "small ball" team, but that was very misleading.

"A.J. Burnett will contribute a mid to low-.300 in ERA... After [Halladay and Burnett] there is a huge dropoff to the next three starters... [Towers] with potential for an ERA in the mid- to low-3.00's"

So from one "mid to low-3.00 in ERA" to another there's a huge dropoff? Interesting.

"Reed Johnson is near the top of the list of the worst starting players in baseball... Hopefully, Frank Catalanatto will be given as many AB's as possible."

Both Johnson & Catalanotto have been in Toronto for 3 years, and for most of that time they've been platooned in left field. Johnson hits lefties fine (.300/.349/.457 in 460 career AB) and has only had more AB than Catalanotto in one season - 2004, when Cat missed a lot of time with injuries.

"Hinske and Hillenbrand, practically identical hitters, will split the DH spot."

Incorrect. The current plan is to platoon Eric Hinske with Alex Rios in right field.

"Projection: 80-82 3rd place in the AL East...The offseason moves were good but..."

How is it that the Jays made good offseason moves but project to have the same record as last year? Did the rest of the league improve just as much as the Jays did?

"the White Sox, if I am not mistaken had quite a bit of power."

Correct. But like many, you've got a blind obsession with power. The White Sox last year scored 741 runs for an OPS+ of 95. The Jays scored 775 runs for an OPS+ of 95. The Sox were better than the Jays because of their pitching, not because of their power.

"A.J. Burnett will contribute a mid to low-.300 in ERA... After [Halladay and Burnett] there is a huge dropoff to the next three starters... [Towers] with potential for an ERA in the mid- to low-3.00's"

So from one "mid to low-3.00 in ERA" to another there's a huge dropoff? Interesting.

"Reed Johnson is near the top of the list of the worst starting players in baseball... Hopefully, Frank Catalanatto will be given as many AB's as possible."

Both Johnson & Catalanotto have been in Toronto for 3 years, and for most of that time they've been platooned in left field. Johnson hits lefties fine (.300/.349/.457 in 460 career AB) and has only had more AB than Catalanotto in one season - 2004, when Cat missed a lot of time with injuries.

"Hinske and Hillenbrand, practically identical hitters, will split the DH spot."

Incorrect. The current plan is to platoon Eric Hinske with Alex Rios in right field.

"Projection: 80-82 3rd place in the AL East...The offseason moves were good but..."

How is it that the Jays made good offseason moves but project to have the same record as last year? Did the rest of the league improve just as much as the Jays did?

"the White Sox, if I am not mistaken had quite a bit of power."

Correct. But like many, you've got a blind obsession with power. The White Sox last year scored 741 runs for an OPS+ of 95. The Jays scored 775 runs for an OPS+ of 95. The Sox were better than the Jays because of their pitching, not because of their power.

"So from one "mid to low-3.00 in ERA" to another there's a huge dropoff? Interesting."

Let me clarify, with Burnett and Halladay you are guaranteed an ERA in the 2.00s or 3.00s but Towers had an ERA of 5.00+ the year before last. Yes, I think Towers has potential but none of the bottom three are guaranteed success like Burnett and Halladay.

"Johnson hits lefties fine" Well, last year he had 165 ABs vs. Lefties and 233 vs. Righties. So he found plenty of time to hurt the team against righties. Also, his numbers last year for lefties: .279/.335/.418 and righties: .262/.329/.408. I'm not liking either one.

"The current plan is to platoon Eric Hinske with Alex Rios in right field."

That is true but Hinske will still see time at DH, especially if, according to CBSsportsline, Alexis Rios continues his hot spring.

"How is it that the Jays made good offseason moves but project to have the same record as last year? Did the rest of the league improve just as much as the Jays did?"

The rest of my sentence in the original post says "Toronto still goes into the year with the possibility of having huge holes in the lineup."

I like the new players but I think the players from last year will see some regression. Chacin (weak K/BB) will have a tough time repeating his success last year. Speier's ERA was way out of line with the rest of his career. Their bullpen as a whole is weak. Their two best hitters outside of Wells last year (Catalanatto and Hillenbrand) are both past their prime. Also, Glaus, their most valuable offensive addition has missed substantial amounts of time in 2 of the last 3 years. If I had to bet, I would not say this is a much better team and they have a good young DRays team and the Sox and Yankees in their division.

"But like many, you've got a blind obsession with power"

The only reason I brought up power was because you stated, "And you say a line-up without power, but lets look at the CHIGAGO WHITE SOXS."

"The White Sox last year scored 741 runs for an OPS+ of 95. The Jays scored 775 runs for an OPS+ of 95."

Why are we using runs scored and OPS+ to determine power? This includes OBP in the equation. How about we use ISO, which is the true measure of power (SLG - BA). The White Sox had a .163 ISO and the Blue Jays had a .142 ISO. The AL average was .157 ISO. So, in terms of power, the White Sox were above average and the Blue Jays were below. The White Sox were in the top 6 and the Blue Jays in the bottom 5 in the AL. So to say that the White Sox should be an example of a team winning WITHOUT power is misleading and false.

The thing about the Blue Jays is that they have upgraded in every single offensive position from 2005 to 2006 (not easy to do) and also each spot and the rotation and at closer.

1B Overbay better than Hillenbrand 2B Hill better than Hudson (debatable) SS 2nd year Adams better than rookie Adams 3b Glaus better than Koskie C Molina better Zaun OF Protected Wells better than unprotected Wells OF 2006 Rios better than 2005 Rios OF Hinske/Catalanatto/Johnson better than Catalanatto/Johnson DH Hillenbrand/Hinske/Molina better than Hillenbrand/Hinske

Rotation:

2006 Halladay better than 2005 Halladay (freak injury) Burnett better than Chacin

2006 Lilly better than 2005 Lilly (tendinitis

(Conitnued)

Chacin better than Towers Towers better than Bush

Closer:

Ryan better than Batista

Bench:

Lots more depth on the bench with Johnson, Zaun, Rios

Chacin better than Towers

Towers better than Bush

Closer:

Ryan better than Batista

(Continued)

(Continued ... I keep getting cut off) Lots more depth on the bench with Johnson, Zaun, Rios

The Jays are definately better. I just don't see this team scoring a lot of runs, so it's going to depend on the pitching staying healthy. Burdette was a huge investment and somewhat of a gamble. I'm interested to see how he'll fare in the AL East where the bats are a whole lot bigger than the NL East.

well here's my 2 cents worth. the jays will finish first or second in the division and here's why. Pitching, they have the best one two punch in the division in holliday and burnett, they have a premier closer in ryan wich is supported by a strong bullpen. the rest of the rotation is solid. Offense, the best way to measure an offense in my opinion is to look at runs scored. last year the jays were 5th in the league in that category and they have improved it with 3 new hitters, glaus, overbay and monilla. they can put a solid hitter in every position, look for alex rios to have a breakout season. the only weakness i see in their line up is they don't have a legitamate leadoff hitter. when you compare the jays with the yankees and red sox, i see the jays with the better pitching staff, the yankees have the best offense, the red sox in the middle, i don't see a clear favorite, if the yankees had more pitching i might be inclined to put them as the favorite, but with the staff they have now i can't.

chacin and lilly are solid??? first, runs scored is not the best way to measure an offense and second, the sox and yankees have much greater offenses than the blue jays.