BetUS.com doesn't respect Johan Santana
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by Airjakub2
Today, BetUS.com posted odds on who will win all the major postseason awards. This is a tricky situation, as it's hard to put odds on something that is so arbitrary. But they were dumb enough to try, so that's their problem. Here are the AL Cy Young odds they posted:
Well that's certainly an interesting way of looking at the situation. If it wasn't obvious already, let's try this.
I don't really know how they came to these conclusions. Haren at +200 is completely reasonable- he does have a 2.30 ERA so far. But Johan at 10:1?
Sure, Santana is "only" 10-6 with a 2.75 ERA so far this year. But last year at the break he was 9-5 with a 2.95 ERA. And he went on to unanimously win the award. Last year wasn't the first time he went nuts in the second half. Here are his 2003-2006 numbers from after the break:
Assuming the other contenders are between their first half performance and their PECOTA in the second half, and Santana is between his first half numbers and his historical second half numbers, this is how things shake out in terms of the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor:
Johan Santana is the favorite to win the award; he should be more like 2:1.
The odds can be found at BetUS.com, under Futures/Props, MLB Futures, American League Awards Specials, "Who Will Win the AL Cy Young?" I would assume they'll change these odds fairly soon (by tomorrow morning) so, if you're so inclined, act quickly.
For more on this, and other related material, check out my site, Vegas Watch.
UPDATE: Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus also thinks Johan will come away with the award, as he writes here.
