Bball Plays Pirates GM: Part Two
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
In Part One of the Series(go ahead and click the link if you missed it), I analyzed the hitters. This article will look at the pitching side of the equation. Last season, a writer at BaseballProspectus did an exercise with the Cubs similar to what I am about to do with the Pirates. The colors assigned to the players will be assuming the Pirates are a playoff contender. So, while Player X may have value on a team as bad as the Pirates, the assigned color will be based on whether that player would have any value on a playoff team.
The Pirates have used almost all of their high draft picks in recent years on pitching prospects. The best example was in 2002, when Pittsburgh chose Bryan Bullington over B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Scott Kazmir, and plenty of other guys who are miles ahead of Bullington at this point. Pittsburgh has developed a good young rotation, in spite of picking these "top" pitchers, as those picks suffered major arm injuries and are just now coming back. It has been their later round picks that have had success.
Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny look to be solid #2 pitchers with a conceivable chance of becoming aces. Snell's peripheral stats are already so strong, that there isn't a weakness to point to in his game. Snell is more-or-less a finished product. While Gorzelanny does not have the strikeout potential of Snell, he keeps the ball in the part more effectively. Gorzelanny has shown improved control early in 2007. If the lowered walk rate is real, then expect him to fulfill his potential this year. Zach Duke is a good #3 pitcher. His low walk rate and home run rate makeup for his below-average strikeout rate. Paul Maholm sits in a lower tier than the top three, but he makes for a serviceable innings eater toward the end of the rotation. However, he still has potential for a breakout season. A cut in his walk rate is the difference between him being a #3 or #5 starter. Tony Armas is the Pirates current #5 starter, but he should be gone after 2007.
While doubtful, Sean Burnett could make a succesfull comeback yet. Brad Lincoln, the Pirates #1 draft pick last season, recently had major arm surgery (surprise, surprise). When he recovers, he projects to be a #2/#3 starter. Lincoln has more potential than Duke. Todd Redmond is one of the top 5 prospects in this organization. He only has average stuff, but should join Maholm as an effective innings-eater type. John Van Benschoten was a great prospect with the bat, leading the NCAA in HRs in 2001, but the Pirates converted him to a starting pitcher. At 27 and coming off of a slew of shoulder surgeries, he has extremely limited value in the future. At this point, him making it back to the big leagues would be an accomplishment.
Overall, the Pirates have three above-average starters, a typical #4 guy, and some bright prospects on the way, assuming injuries don't bite them all.
Matt Capps looks to be the Pirates best reliever until he burns out. As a rookie in 2006, Tracy sent him out for 85 games. He has already thrown in 11 of the first 17 games in 2007. Salomon Torres has had a good career as a reliever, but at 35-years-old, how much does he have left? Jonah Bayliss has control issues and gets stung by the home-run ball too often, but he has dominate stuff. He should end up as a useful middle reliever at some point. Damaso Marte is in his early-30s and should be one of the better options out of the Pirates bullpen for the next couple years.
The Pirates have three average to slightly-above-average prospects in the bullpen: Josh Sharpless, Mike Felix, and Justin Vaclavik. All three of them could end up as very good set-up men. Sharpless is the best of the three, sporting a tremendous slider. Felix is a raw-talent lefty with decent speed and tons of break to his curve. Vaclavik never shys away from a challenge and keeps the ball on the ground. Those three, Capps, and Bayliss make the nucleus of a strong, young bullpen.
Part Three will be the final part of this series. I will take a look at the Organization as a whole, develop a rough plan of action, and wrap-up the series.
