Bball's Series Preview: Pirates at Reds(April 6-8, 2007)
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
With the inspiration and permission of Angels Fan, I will write previews for the Pirates' series. I am one series late, but here we go.
After sweeping the Astros in Houston, the 3-0 Pittsburgh Pirates head to Cincinnati to face the Reds. The Reds won two of the three games in their series with division rival, Chicago.
The Pirates put on a pitching clinic in Houston, while scoring just enough runs to win all three games. Opening Day starter Zach Duke(0-0) went 7 innings, allowing 2 runs and 1 walk. Ian Snell(0-0) followed with a masterful 6 innings, 11 Ks, 1 BB, and 2 runs. Tom Gorzelanny(1-0) finished off the series by going 5 and allowing 3 runs, 2 earned. Offensively, Jose Bautista and Xavier Nady each drove in 3 runs.
The Reds won their first game against the Cubbies on a strong performance by SP Aaron Harang(1-0). Harang went 7 innings, allowing 1 unearned run. Slugger Adam Dunn supplied the offense with 2 HRs and 3 RBI. The Reds dropped Game Two 4-1. Opposing pitcher Ted Lilly held the Reds offense in check. Dunn singled in the only Reds run of the game. Game Three was won on some late inning offense, capped by a two-run homer by Scott Hatteberg.
Games
| Game | Pirates Starter | 2007 Data | 2006 Data | Reds Starter | 2007 Data | 2006 Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Maholm | 0-0, 0.00 ERA | 8-10, 4.76 ERA | Matt Belisle | 0-0, 0.00 ERA | 2-0, 3.60 ERA |
| 2 | Tony Armas | 0-0, 0.00 ERA | 9-12, 5.03 ERA | Aaron Harang | 1-0, 0.00 ERA | 16-11, 3.76 ERA |
| 3 | Zach Duke | 0-0, 2.57 ERA | 10-15, 4.47 ERA | Eric Milton | 0-0, 0.00 ERA | 8-8, 5.19 ERA |
What each team needs to do
The Pirates need to neutralize Adam Dunn's bat. The rest of the lineup is manageable. If Dunn isn't driving runners in, then the Reds offense won't be scoring runs.
The Reds need to get to the Pirates bullpen. After Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, and Salomon Torres, the Pirates are without quality arms. Capps and Torres have already pitched in 3 games this year, so the Reds offense needs to get as many appearances against poor relief pitching as possible.
Key Personnel
Pirates
Paul Maholm - After a strong spring for Maholm, he is the series breaker for the Pirates in Game 1. Harang has the matchup against Armas and Duke has the matchup against Milton, but Maholm vs. Belisle is anyone's ballgame. Belisle had a tremendous spring himself, so this should be the best of the three games. Maholm is a groundball pitcher who doesn't get stung by the home run ball. This gives him an advantage against Dunn.
Adam LaRoche - The Pirates gave up top prospect SS Brent Lillibridge and closer Mike Gonzalez to acquire LaRoche's "big bat." After hitting 1/12 in the opening series, his bat needs to wakeup in the friendly confines of the Great American Ballpark.
Reds
Adam Dunn - As mentioned before, the Reds offense revolves around #2 hitter Adam Dunn. Last season, Dunn slumped in the second half and the Reds offense followed suit. On August 2nd last season, Dunn's OPS was .960. He finished the year at .855. On the same date, the Reds had scored 4.93 runs per game. They finished the year at 4.62. This lineup hasn't added any firepower from last season, so Dunn must hit the Pirates pitching.
Brandon Phillips - After "breaking out" in 2006, Phillips has started off this season slowly. Hitting in the #3 spot, behind Dunn, Phillips needs to produce. What many don't realize is that Phillips OBP was only .324 last season. Phillips was nothing more than an average hitter, for a second baseman. Dunn will be on base often; Phillips has to drive him in and improve on last year's performance if he is going to make the decision to bat him third look smart.
Injuries
Pirates
- Freddy Sanchez - Sprained ligament, right knee - on 15-day DL effective 3/23
- John Grabow - Left elbow inflammation - on 15-day DL effective 3/23
Reds
- Eddie Guardado - Torn ligament, left elbow - on 60-day DL effective 3/23
- Chris Denorfia - Right elbow surgery - on 15-day DL effective 3/23(out for season)
- Elizardo Ramirez - Right shoulder tendonitis - on 15-day DL effective 3/23
== Prediction == Pirates win the first and third game, but the offense can't handle Harang in Game Two. Dunn homers twice in the series.
