Bball's MLB Award Watch: April 2007

by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)

It may be early to do a list like this, but, in my mind, it is never too early to start talking about the MLB awards. After a month of action, most of the best players have made their way to the top. There are still plenty of surprises here, some who could last the 162-game marathon (Matt Cain) and others who are less likely to be here for May's recap (Ramon Ortiz). On to the awards...

NL

MVP

1. Jose Reyes
2. Barry Bonds
3. Aaron Rowand
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Kelly Johnson

Bonds has been the best hitter in the league so far, but Reyes, the more complete player, has been the most valuable. Rollins has seemingly stolen Ryan Howard's power. Johnson has made the transition to 2B with ease for Atlanta.

Cy Young

1. Tim Hudson
2. Matt Cain
3. Ian Snell
4. Jake Peavy
5. Braden Looper

Hudson has been the best pitcher in either league. Cain and Snell are impressive young players making their marks on the league for two losing ballclubs. Peavy seems fully recovered from last season's injury problems and ineffectiveness. Looper has been tremendous moving out of the bullpen to the starting rotation.

Rookie of the Year

1. Josh Hamilton
2. Manuel Corpas
3. Kevin Cameron
4. Shawn Hill
5. Renyel Pinto

Hamilton has made his comeback to become one of the best hitters in the league, rookie or otherwise. The rest of the rookie class is rounded out by young pitchers.

AL

MVP

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Joe Mauer
3. Vladimir Guerrero
4. Ian Kinsler
5. B.J. Upton

This is the most lopslided of the awards. Rodriguez has hit as if he sold his soul to the devil. Mauer almost made it through the entire month without a home run, but his average and OBP are right up in elite territory. Vlad is a mainstay on the MVP lists. Kinsler and Upton are talented middle infielders off to hot starts.

Cy Young

1. Roy Halladay
2. Ramon Ortiz
3. Nate Robertson
4. Josh Beckett
5. Dan Haren

Halladay has grown accustomed to being at the top of Cy Young lists, but generally behind Johan Santana. Beckett, Robertson, and Haren have the talent to stay here all year, but Ortiz? I think not.

Rookie of the Year

1. Dustin Moseley
2. Akinori Iwamura
3. Hideki Okajima
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
5. Sean Henn

Much like the NL rookies, this is a pitching-heavy list. Iwamura was recently sidelined with an oblique injury or he would be #1. Okajima and Matsuzaka have come from overseas to bolster the Red Sox pitching staff. Henn has been a rare bright spot on the Yankees pitching staff.

Davis21wylieMVP

925 days ago

Score 2

My $0.02...

NL MVP: Bonds. Higher OBP and SLG than Reyes, plus his Giants (Matt Cain aside) wouldn't be anywhere near 2 games back in their division without him.

NL Cy: John Maine. 1.35 ERA, 4 wins, not imploding like I predicted, etc.

NL ROY: Hamilton. Although I am a fan of "Habeas" Corpas.

AL MVP: A-Rod (who else could it be?) -- but the second he starts hitting less than .350, it's back to booing!

AL Cy: Josh Beckett -- 5 wins, 2.48 ERA, and only 1 home run allowed! If only he'd pitched like this last year, too...

AL ROY: Aki Iwamura. If somebody had told me before this acquisition that the D-Rays' starting 3B would be OPS-ing .961 with solid defense, I'd have laughed in their face, but no longer.

Oh, and all in all, good stuff as usual, Bball.

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The sharkDraft Pick

925 days ago

Score 1

D2Dub - You should have written this article (no offense BBall - I always like your stuff) - but I agree with every one of your picks, save maybe Iwamura (especially now that he is DL-ridden). But I love any list that can spark this debate this early in the season. KUDOS!

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Davis21wylieMVP

925 days ago

Score 0

Thanks, but I like to leave the heavy lifting to Tim. :) Besides, I was kind of trying to be a contrarian, because I'm sure Bball went straight here when formulating his picks (I know, because that's the first place I go, too). But after Morneaugate, I'm kind of over VORP for MVP/Cy discussions anyway, for reasons partially outlined here... Instead, I like "literal value" measures for MVP: (RBI + Runs)/2 is probably as simple/good a measure as any for batter value, and some combo of wins & ERA is probably best for pitcher value. I like WPA best of all, but good luck calculating that one on the back of an envelope.

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KelsdadAll-Star

924 days ago

Score 0

Batter value: (r+rbi)-HR*2/team runs.

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Davis21wylieMVP

924 days ago

Score 0

I just don't agree with subtracting the home run...

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KelsdadAll-Star

924 days ago

Score 0

Total average, r + rbi -hr was invented by Tom Boswell around 1980. I have always felt that was an incomplete stat since the homer counts as both, so why only subtract it once? If you divide the result by the team runs, you get a "net" runs total, or percentage value. It shows, for example, homerun hitters don't have as much value as one would think by looking at their numbers. Just something I decided to do and feel its a better result.

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Davis21wylieMVP

924 days ago

Score 0

Boswell's Total Average actually equals [(Total Bases + Hit By Pitch + Walks + Stolen Bases) -­ Caught Stealing]/[(At Bats - Hits) + Caught Stealing + Grounded Into Double Play]. I believe you're thinking of "Runs Produced", which is R + RBI - HR. But, like I said, I don't think you should subtract the HR, but rather let it "count twice" and divide by two. Since only a few runs get scored that aren't batted in, (R + RBI)/2 for individuals on a team should add up to the team run total, so you can make it a percentage of total team runs for value, like you alluded to above.

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BigPPupMajor Leaguer

925 days ago

Score 0

Im just gonna go out on a limb and say isnt this just a tad premature?

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Bball3345Draft Pick

925 days ago

Score 1

It's never too early to have a little fun, and what is more fun than the MLB awards?

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DNLLegend

925 days ago

Score 1

NL MVP: Reyes, Beltran, Alou, Shawn Green, and John Maine.

NL Cy Young: Maine, Tom Glavine, Joe Smith, Julio Franco, Billy Wagner

NL Rookie of the Year: Fernando Martinez, Joe Smith, Mike Pelfrey, Lastings Milledge, Phil Humber

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Leslie MonteiroVarsity

925 days ago

Score 0

I agree with you.

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TylersaltAll-Star

925 days ago

Score 0

Wah-wah Dan.

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Davis21wylieMVP

925 days ago

Score 0

Oh, those zany Met fans...

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

924 days ago

Score 0

The reason why I like my formula is it discounts the homer in its true value, meaning one each for the run and rbi. Only subtracting the HR total once does little to justify the end result, because it is not accurate. Your way in a sense gives a gross value, as you said you add up each player to match the team total. Subtracting the homer (x2) does give an accurate net value because, I guess this is the right term, the run total is unadjusted by the homers.

Using Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Howard, 104 R + 149 RBI = 253 -58*2 (116) = 137/865 (Phils runs) = 15.8% Utley, 131 R + 102 RBI =233 -64 = 169/865 = 19.5%

So, to me, Utley was more valuable to the Phils because he didnt just rely on the homers to contribute runs, even though he hit 32.

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Davis21wylieMVP

924 days ago

Score 1

Why should Howard be punished for his home runs, though? Say Howard hits a HR with Utley on second. 2 runs get scored -- Utley 1, Howard 1. 2 runs get batted in, both by Howard. Under your scheme, Utley gets 1 R + 0 RBI - 2*(0 HR) = 1, Howard 1 R + 2 RBI - 2*(1 HR) = 1. But clearly Howard is more responsible for the Phillies' two runs than Utley: he hit a Home Run, batting himself in and ensuring that at least one run would score; if not for Howard, Utley might not have scored at all, while Howard didn't need Utley's help to score his run, plus he helped Utley score his run. Howard deserves more credit. Under (R + RBI)/2, Utley gets credit for 0.5 of the 2 runs, and Howard gets 1.5, which better describes the amount of "work" each player put into the scoring of those two runs.

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The sharkDraft Pick

925 days ago

Score 1

Josh Beckett - Hands down AL Cy Young at this point.

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Anonymous Fanatic #2

925 days ago

Score 1

Beckett's not a bad pick, but I went with Halladay because he has gone deeper in his outings. Halladay's average outing is a little more than an inning longer than Beckett's. That was what tipped the scales for me toward Halladay. Ortiz had a better Runs Average and how many opportunities will I have to put Ortiz on top of the list?

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Bball3345Draft Pick

925 days ago

Score 1

That was me.

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The sharkDraft Pick

925 days ago

Score 1

Gotcha. But there is something to be said for a 5-0 start (especially when two of said five are against the hated rival)

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Bball3345Draft Pick

925 days ago

Score 0

Definitely, and the low HR rate for Beckett is a GREAT sign. Beckett will be in the Cy Young discussion until the end.

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KelsdadAll-Star

924 days ago

Score 0

I agree with what you're saying, but at the same time this is one at bat out of thousands.

This is the way I've always tried to explain this, but it has been awhile, so bear with me.

Homers give a false sense of value to a player. Granted, there is no discounting David Ortiz having six walkoffs last year, but this is an exception to the rule. Isn't it possible for a player to have 30 homers and be more valuable to his team than a guy with 45? The reason why I came up with this is because other players have at least as much, if not more, value to their team than a homer hitter. I first came up with this after the 1989 season, at the time there was a big disagreement on the AL MVP voting. Robin Yount won, but alot of people thought the award should have gone to Ruben Sierra. This formula clearly shows Yount had more value to the Breweres than Sierra had for the Rangers. Obviously, its not fool proof, but its good enough for me. And, quite frankly, I have yet to see something better.

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Davis21wylieMVP

924 days ago

Score 0

This is why it's important to remember the gulf between "ability" and "value". The best formula of this type (run estimators) is runs created, or one of the linear-weights formulae that do the same thing. They will tell you who the better player is more often than a stat using situation/lineup-dependent stats like RBI, because they accurately describe a player's ability, independent to that of his teammates. But for MVP we're not talking about who's better, or who theoretically would have put up the most runs for an average lineup based on some combination of their singles, doubles, etc. -- we're talking about who had the most impact in real runs for real teams: we're discussing "value". And (R + RBI)/2 describes real run production best, assuming that a run scored and a run batted in are of equal importance (which may or may not be technically true, but for simplicity's sake, I think we can say that half the job is getting on and half the job is driving them in). Your formula completely nullifies the value of a home run (by itself, 1 HR = 1 R and 1 RBI, and you take away both), and there's no real reason to do that, because home runs actually generate runs. I might agree with you if you were proposing the use of (R + RBI - HR), but there's no reason to subtract 2*HR other than to arbitrarily penalize home run hitters. Think about it: every time a solo HR is hit, your formula awards zero "runs"! But a run scored, didn't it? Remember, this isn't about hitting "ability", otherwise we'd just use runs created; it's about accounting for all of a team's runs and parceling out credit based on driving runners in and getting driven in. (R + RBI)/2 is superior because it parcels out credit evenly between the actors when a run is batted in, no matter if it's a home run or a run-scoring single.

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Tmil42AAA-er

925 days ago

Score 0

What about John Maine for NL Cy Young? 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA, that has to be worth something.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

924 days ago

Score 0

When I posted these, he was 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. One of his starts he only lasted 4.2 innings. This early in the season, that one short start was enough for me to bump him.

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KelsdadAll-Star

924 days ago

Score 0

I agree, again, with your perception. BUT, we're still talking over a full season and not on a game by game or even at bat by at bat scenario. An isolated solo homer wouldn't skew the numbers. I am, after all, looking for net runs, and is why the common denominator is team runs. How about (r + rbi) - HR x 1.4 (hr value number)?

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TylersaltAll-Star

925 days ago

Score 0

No Rich Hill up in Wrigleytown?

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Bball3345Draft Pick

924 days ago

Score 0

No doubt he has been great, but his last start was his 6.2 IP and 4 ER performance(I posted these picks before his game against PIT yesterday). That start was enough for me to bump him from the top 5.

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ChristofMVP

924 days ago

Score 0

Dude, a month of baseball is like 2 games in the NFL. Can we wait a little longer before naming award winners?

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Bball3345Draft Pick

924 days ago

Score 1

Right, I should have written some articles about how the Yankees should blow up their team, the Phillies are dead, and Bonds is on steroids so we should all be FURIOUS...

Wait, those just might have been done already...

Relax, this is just for fun. A month has passed so, y'know, it made sense to see how the players were doing so far. Then, in a month or two, we can look back and say "Wow! Braden Looper really has blown it after starting off so hot." or "B.J. Upton had a great start to an MVP-type season. He was in it from the beginning." Also, it can spark discussion. Imagine doing something like trying to start conversation on a blog!

Alas, I guess I should just go back to letting other people write knee-jerk articles, like this and that.

And where exactly did I say that these guys had already won the awards for the season? I can't seem to find that part in my article...

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KelsdadAll-Star

924 days ago

Score 0

sorry, that was me

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