Bball's "I Can't Do This On My Own" Pitchers
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
A few days ago, I wrote Bball's "I Can't Do This On My Own" Players, where I looked at the batters who were carrying their teams so far in the season. As promised, I will do the same thing in this article for pitchers, specifically starting pitchers. Here are the top 5 "I Can't Do This On My Own" pitchers, in no particular order...
- Roy Oswalt - With Jason Jennings on the DL, Oswalt has been left to fend for himself in the rotation. His 3.00 ERA is more than a run-and-a-half better than his next qualifying rotation mate, Wandy Rodriguez(4.66 ERA). On an interesting, slightly disturbing note, Oswalt's K rate is continuing a three-year trend of declining. An improving BB rate offset his declining K rate in the past, but this year he has a career-high BB rate with a career-low K rate, a sure recipe for disaster. His success this year is due to a .240 Batting Average on Balls in Play, compared to his career .305 BABIP. If Oswalt's BB rate and K rate don't reverse directions, his BABIP will be sure to rise, leading to a higher ERA. If that happens, the Astros rotation will be downright ugly.
- Gil Meche - 7 of KC's 17 Quality Starts have been thrown by Meche. His 2.15 ERA is nearly 2 runs better than the next qualifying starter, Jorge De La Rosa(4.06). Meche's success looks to be for real. His weakness throughout his career has been a lack of control. Last season, Meche's BB rate was 4.05, but he has almost cut that in half, lowering the rate to 2.32. As a result, Meche has a career-best K/BB of 3.00. Unlike Oswalt, Meche's BABIP is close to his career BABIP, at .283 versus .289, respectively. It looks like the Royals might have known something no one else did about Meche.
- Jeff Suppan - This may look to be a weird selection, since Chris Capuano actually has a lower ERA than Suppan (2.31 vs. 2.63). However, both Capuano and Suppan have let up 15 runs (5 unearned runs for Capuano). In 7 starts for each of them, Suppan has thrown 9 more innings. Capuano has basically been a 5 or 6 inning starter, while Suppan has gone deeper into games. As well, Capuano has only 2 QS out of his 7 starts, compared to 5 for Suppan. Like Meche, Suppan's success is due to cutting his BB rate for a career-high 3.0 K/BB rate. Suppan's .311 BABIP is higher than his normal .298, so if the improved control stands, Suppan will be one of the better starters in the league.
- Jake Peavy - Fellow Padres, Chris Young and Greg Maddux, are doing very well, at 3.29 and 3.67 ERAs, respectively. Yet, Peavy has a 1.75 ERA! He also has been 6/7 in QS compared to the 8/14 by the other two. Unlike Meche and Suppan, Peavy's success is due to an increased K/9. Peavy has always been a K machine, with an 8.96 career K rate. This season he is striking out 10.88 per 9 innings. Peavy also posseses a microscopic HR rate of 0.19. Usually, about 10% of Peavy's flyballs go for HRs; however, this season that number is 2.4%. Peavy has been inducing fewer flyballs and more groundballs this year, but that number will go back up toward 10%. Still, if Peavy stays healthy, he is in for a huge year.
- Braden Looper - This closer-turned-starter is looking like a natural starter. His 2.66 ERA blows the rest of the rotation out of the water. None of the other Cardinals starters have an ERA under 5.00. Looper's K rate has gone in the opposite direction one would expect from a move out of the bullpen. It is actually up by a slight notch from last year. His BB rate has also gone up a little, but nothing significant. Looper's success so far has been from a low HR rate, which is normal for Looper, and a somewhat low BABIP. If he continues pitching as he is now, his ERA will increase a tad, but he should still be one of the better starters in the league. The question will be how much fatigue will play a factor later on in the season.
