Baseball Strategy:Stealing Second Base
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[edit] Rules and Exceptions
A runner with the reputation as a stolen base threat can disrupt both the defensive positioning and also the pitcher's rhythm. The second baseman or shortstop has to "cheat" towards second base, thus opening a larger hole for the hitter to aim for, and can also cause the pitcher to rush his pitch, thus losing effectiveness.
The steal of second is more effective when a team is ahead, tied, or behind by no more than a run or two at the most. Exceptions would be if an outstanding runner is on base, or it is earlier in the game. The theory a batter should swing at the pitch in order to "protect" the runner may seem unnecessary, as it doesn't have a direct effect on the catcher's throw, but it can break the catcher's concentration and lead to a less accurate throw to second base.
The baserunner begins his lead by taking one step towards the pitcher. This provides him the optical illusion to the pitcher of being closer to the bag than he really is. The ideal lead is one and a half his own body length, enough to reach the bag on a pickoff attempt with one full step and a dive back, in which he will contact the bag on the outside, rightfield side.
When watching the pitcher for signs of a pickoff, the baserunner should focus on the right heel and/or left knee for a righthanded pitcher, and the right knee or left thigh for a lefthanded pitcher. You will also see good baserunners glancing towards the catcher for a possible pickoff sign, which sometimes can be given by his own hitter from the batter's box.
A defensive strategy on the stolen base is the pitchout, where the pitcher intentionally throws a pitch outside the strike zone in a manner in which the catcher can more easily attempt to throw out the runner.
Which is not to say that you should never steal. The threshold at which your stolen-base percentage must be to make a positive contribution actually goes down as the game progresses, meaning that later in close games, the benefit of a go-ahead run might outweigh the cost of an out. One great example of a team knowing when to steal late would be...
[edit] Notable Steals of Second
Oct. 17, 2004 - Game 4, 2004 ALCS. Mariano Rivera walks Kevin Millar. Dave Roberts pinch runs for the slow-footed first baseman. Mariano Rivera knows Roberts is going to attempt a steal. Jorge Posada knows. Joe Torre knows. Every fan in Fenway knows. Ruben Sierra may have been confused. Rivera throws over to first once, twice, three times - whoa, that one almost got Roberts leaning. Mariano finally goes to the plate and Dave's off. Posada stands and fires to Jeter covering second. The throw is a little high to the third base side of the bag, but Jeter slaps down a quick tag. But no, it wasn't enough. Dave Roberts grabs a piece of the bag a split second before Jeter can swipe his elbow. Second base has been stolen: The Swipe Heard 'Round the Nation, or perhaps more simply, just "The Steal."
