Baseball Prospectus

[edit] Book Summary

Baseball Prospectus, sometimes abbreviated as BP, is a think-tank focusing on the statistical analysis of the sport of baseball, which is also known as sabermetrics. The analysis featured on the site and in their annual book covers a diverse array of topics, from the value of individual plays, like bunts and stolen bases, to overall theory on roster construction. BP has often been considered the modern successor to Bill James' Baseball Abstract series of books in the 1980s.

Baseball Prospectus produces several products for baseball enthusiasts:

• The web site BaseballProspectus.com[1], which contains articles, statistical reports, and fantasy baseball tools. Some content and reports are free; some are only available to paid subscribers.

• A best-selling annual book (Baseball Prospectus 2006 [2]) that contains statistics and analysis of the past season and forecasts of the upcoming season.

• Other baseball-related books, such as Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning (2005) (ISBN 0761140182) and Baseball Between the Numbers (2006) (ISBN 0465005969).

• A syndicated and podcasted radio show, Baseball Prospectus Radio[3].

Baseball Prospectus has fathered several popular new statistical tools which have become hallmarks of baseball analysis, including VORP (Value over replacement player)[4], PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points)[5], EqA (Equivalent average)[6], and PECOTA (a player forecasting system[7]). Voros McCracken's pathbreaking article on DIPS also first appeared on the BP website.[8]

The analysis and statistics favored by Baseball Prospectus are similar to the principles followed by Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane as featured in the book, Moneyball by Michael Lewis.

[edit] Authors

These are the current active authors of the content on Baseball Prospectus as of July 2006, sorted alphabetically by author's last name.

• Jim Baker – writes the "Prospectus Matchups" weekly column, in which he discusses the best, worst, and most interesting baseball series of that week.

• Maury Brown – debuted with a new weekly column on May 29, 2006, called "The Ledger Domain," in which he discusses the business of baseball. Brown is co-chair of SABR’s Business of Baseball committee, and editor of SABR’s business of baseball committee website BusinessOfBaseball.com.[9] Brown also previously wrote a column for the Hardball Times.

• Will Carroll – writes the "Under The Knife" daily column. Each column leads with a brief intro, and then summarizes each of the news-worthy injuries of the day. Carroll also has published two books, one entitled Saving the Pitcher (ISBN 1566635780), and one called The Juice (ISBN 156663668X), which won the 2005 Sporting News-SABR Baseball Research Award. He also hosts the BP radio show.

• Clay Davenport – is responsible for many of the website's behind the scenes operations, including its advanced statistics and statistical reports. In addition, he writes occasional columns about new features on the site or other topics. Invented the metric EqA[10] (Equivalent average); created the Pythagenport Formula[11]; created the "Davenport Translations" or "DT's"[12] for translating minor league and international baseball statistcs into American major league baseball equivalents as well as for making major league performance statistics equivalent over time and context.

• Neil deMause – writes occasional articles about stadium building and finance.

• John Erhardt – compiles weekly "This Week In Quotes" articles, featuring various quotes from the previous week's action and discussion.

• Dan Fox – writes a weekly "Schrodinger's Bat" column, usually employing hard-core sabermetric techniques, and analyzes varied problems at length. Fox is another Hardball Times alum.

• Steven Goldman – writes weekly "You Could Look It Up" columns, generally discussing baseball's history with the new statistical tools. Goldman edited BP's book Mind Game as well as authored his own book Forging Genius: The Making of Casey Stengel. (2005 -- ISBN 1574888730) (2006 -- ISBN 1574888749)

• Kevin Goldstein – writes almost daily columns concerning high school, college, and minor league player "prospects," with an emphasis on scouting rather than sabermetrics.

• Tom Gorman – former research assistant to Will Carroll. Occasionally writes articles on Major League transaction rules and the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

• Jay Jaffe – compiles weekly "Prospectus Hit Lists" which provide a ranking of all major league teams determined sabermetrically and then provides insight into and analysis of the rankings.

• Rany Jazayerli – writes occasional "Doctoring the Numbers" columns. He also compiles the annual Top 50 Prospects list, although he does not determine the rankings alone but rather with the help of the other BP authors. Invented the concept of PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points).[13]

• Christina Kahrl – writes bi-weekly "Transaction Analysis" columns, listing and then commenting on each of the 30 major league team's transactions for the time period given. Also known as Chris Kahrl in earlier work.

• Joe Sheehan – discusses an important topic from the previous day's action in the daily "Prospectus Today" column.

• Nate Silver – writes a weekly "Lies, Damned Lies" column, which often debunks current common baseball opinion. Created the PECOTA forecasting system for hitter and pitcher performance.[14]

• Keith Woolner – writes occasional "Aim For The Head" columns, discussing statistics and how they help to interpret the game. Works behind the scenes on the "statistics" section of the website. Invented the concept of VORP (Value over replacement player)[15] [16].