Barry Bonds: How Much Would You Sign Him For?
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by user Timothy Moreland (Bball3345)
Man, it's been awhile since I've written anything on here. Well, I'll try to shake off the rust with this article.
According to ESPN.com, Barry Bonds will be testing the Free Agent Market. This begs the question, how much is he worth?
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Health
From the ages of 35-39, Bonds played in 130-153 games each season. Then, multiple surgeries in 2005 knocked him out for all but 14 games. Bonds again played in 130 games this season. At 42-years-old, health must remain an issue, but a team should expect close to a full season from the slugger.
Offensive Production
As for power, Bonds’ At Bats per Home Run dropped from its normal place in the 8.0’s to 14.1. A 350 at-bat season would place Bonds around 25 home runs at that rate. For a man in his early 40’s, who gets walked at an astonishing rates, 25 will do just fine. Where Bonds’ value comes from is his ability to get on base. In 2006, his OBP was .454. This is higher than his career .443 mark, but not at the level of his previous .500+ campaigns.
Looking at some of the production stats, Bonds still appears to add plenty of value to a team. His EQA (equivalent average) ranked third in the NL last season behind Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. His WARP was a solid 6.0. Again, below his recent Hall-of-Fame years in the teens, but good enough to start for a major-league team.
Other Skills
Defensively, Bonds has slipped over the past few years. Knee surgeries will do that to you. Judging by any defensive metric, Bonds appears to be slightly below average, at best. An AL team would be a better fit for Bonds, as far as keeping him healthy and not taking a hit on defense. Baserunning no longer exists in Bonds’ arsenal.
Attendance Effects
Well, let’s do some simple math. 734 + 25 = 759. 759 > 755. Yes, if Bonds hits more than 21 home runs, then we have got ourselves a new Home Run King. Who thinks attendance will rise to watch the chase to 755? Count me in.
Predicting Salary
The Hardball Times’ Net Win Shares Value Calculator will help out with this part. Last season, Bonds totaled 18 Win Shares Above a Bench Player (WSAB). If he regresses to 14 WSAB next season, then a contract of $15 million would still have a net value of $2,153,079. In other words, Bonds would be worth about two million dollars more than the contract. A contract of about $18 million puts you right on the head for a Free Agent with 14 WSAB in the market. Throw in the fact a team should expect to pull in extra revenue from ticket sales and the actual value of Bonds goes up. As well, if Bonds ends up being the final piece of the puzzle for a team near contention, his value to revenue (via playoffs) adds to the team as well.
Conclusion
Overall, a team should be willing to sign Bonds for $20 million, or more, depending on their situation. If possible, the team should try and do what Oakland did with Frank Thomas, sign him to a lower base salary and allow for playing-time bonuses. This would make sense in respect to minimizing risk.
