Barkingclam's 2007 NHL Playoff Predictions - part one
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by user Barkingclam
Part one – Uninformed
I’ve decided to try two methods this spring for my NHL Playoff predictions. First, I’ll go off the top of my head, throwing subjective thoughts and little (if any) prep into this. Wednesday, though, I’ll post my sabremetric look at the matches: who will win what when and why.
So, with that, here we go!
Western Conference
- 1 Detroit vs #8 Calgary
My pick: Calgary
Detroit started as great team this year and they’ve done nothing but improve. However, just like last year, their goaltending has the potential to completely derail them. Should Hasek go down… well, at least the Tigers are doing pretty good.
This is in addition to facing a team that is utterly incapable of winning on the road, but is also incapable of losing at home. Yes, they have a hard time scoring – but they also tied the season series at 2 games each.
I think that Calgary will steal an OT win early in the series and manage to win in seven.
- 2 Anahiem vs #7 Minnesota
My pick: Anahiem
I haven’t watched many, if any, games that involved the Mighty Wild this year, but they seem to have done pretty well for themselves – 48 wins, two shy of the #1 seeded Red Wings. However, they can’t seem to score too often. In three of the four games they played against the Ducks this year, they only scored two or less goals in regulation.
Adding to this, the Ducks are looking better then ever this year. For a while, they looked as it they may win the Presidents trophy, but that kinda fell apart. Nonetheless, they are still a team with great defence and even better goaltending.
They’ll take this series in 5 games.
- 3 Vancouver vs #6 Dallas
My Pick: Vancouver
What do you get when two teams, one no better then the other face each other?
This season these two teams have met four times.
Four times, the score has been 2-1.
The series is tied 2-2.
Well, you get either lucky or a game seven OT. I’m going to guess that we’ll see a 6 game series, 7+ if you add the OT periods to the totals, and the Canucks moving on.
It’s not like Jokinen can do his slide-move in the playoffs, anyway.
- 4 Nashville vs #5 San Jose
My Pick: San Jose
I’ve been telling anybody that’ll listen: Nashville is overrated. They win by pushing you around, opening up the middle for the forwards and drawing penalties from the other team. It’s not quite the same as the tactics the Flyers used to use, but it’s close enough for me.
But it won’t work. The Sharks won’t be fooled into taking bad penalties for four games in a row. They’re fast, they can score and they will win this series in six games.
Eastern Conference
- 1 Buffalo vs #8 NY Islanders
My Pick: Buffalo
I’m still mad, yes, at he Islanders, but that has little if anything to do with my decision. The Sabres are just a good team. They’re fast, they can play rough, they can score and they have some pretty good goaltending.
The Isles will be burnt out from their intense games against New Jersey, Toronto and Philly. They may have enough momentium to steal a game, but I doubt it.
Sabres in four.
- 2 New Jersey vs #7 Tampa Bay
My Pick: Tampa Bay
This one here’s a bit of a toughie – the Devils have been pretty good this year, but they’ve also been using Marty Broudier a pretty fair amount, too.
The Lightening have been pretty good lately, too. They’ve won their last two games against the Devils. I think if anybody’s going to make any upset in the East, it’ll be the Lightening, winning in six.
- 3 Atlanta vs #6 NY Rangers
My pick: Atlanta
It’s not really much of a contest, really. I think that the ATL is far and above the better team here, although I suppose the Rangers have more playoff experience.
Nonetheless, I don’t see it lasting too long. Atlanta in four.
- 4 Ottawa vs #5 Pittsburgh
My Pick: Ottawa
It’s a team known for choking vs a team with no experience in the playoffs.
The Sens are known for falling apart in the playoffs, usually capping with a catastrophic collapse against Toronto in game seven. However, they’ve kept it close against the Pens this year – all three of their losses were by a goal.
I think that while it’s not their year, they’ll be able to squeak this one out, for once. Sens in seven.
Coming tomorrow (or Wednesday) - a more Bill James-ish look at the postseason!
