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BCS Computers Set to Explode!

28
Vote

by SportsGerbil

With West Virginia and Missouri losing, it appears that we are set for an extreme BCS shake up which will decide who plays for the National Championship. Ohio State will clearly be the #1 team in the country, but the question is who will be #2? If it goes by the current polls that team will be Georgia, but there are several others that can make the case for a spot. Besides Georgia, those teams are Kansas, Virginia Tech, LSU, USC and perhaps Oklahoma. What a playoff that would make, but unfortunately we are stuck with this system. So who would I choose?

I think I would have to go with LSU to play Ohio State in the game. LSU has lost two games, but both of which were in triple overtime. They also went out and won the SEC Championship Game today while Georgia sat at home. The only reason Georgia is ahead of LSU right now is that they lost their games earlier in the season. I don't like that rotating carosel of ranking teams. If it isn't LSU then I guess it has to be Georgia. Either way, I'm very pro SEC here, as they clearly play the toughest schedules in America. No other team played Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, and Alabama in four consecutive weeks.

BUT COME ON DR. MYLES BRAND AND COLLEGE PRESIDENTS! THESE OPINIONS SHOULDN'T MATTER! TIME FOR A PLAYOFF!!!


Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
JMFlyer1454Draft Pick
728 days ago
Score 5+-
It will definitely be OSU vs LSU or Georgia. My money would be on LSU jumping Georgia as a result of winning the SEC Championship.
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KdubdubWaterboy
728 days ago
Score 4+-
I think Hawaii really has a legit beef since they started the year 23 and are only at number 12 now. But, this is just stupid...OSU v LSU doesn't even put the best two teams in the country. There needs to be a playoff.
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JMFlyer1454Draft Pick
728 days ago
Score 2+-
Just curious, who do you consider as the two best then? I'm not arguing. Just wondering.
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
728 days ago
Score 1+-
honestly...I think USC and Oklahoma (Georgia not too far behind). LSU has had too many scrapes this year for me and Ohio State is just the best of a very overrated Big 10.
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KdubdubWaterboy
728 days ago
Score 1+-
I said ^^^^^. I just wasn't logged in
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I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer
728 days ago
Score 4+-
USC only beat two teams with winning records this year.
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DNLLegend
728 days ago
Score 3+-
cpcp -- that's irony for you. USC turned down taking on Hawaii, after Mich St renegged. Had they played Hawaii and, assumedly, won, they'd have a much better argument for a title shot. Instead, they declined, and they're out because of it. Hah!
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LASportsblogAAA-er
728 days ago
Score 0+-
Dan I think it's much more resonable to suggest USC isn't in because they were beat by a 41 point underdog at home.
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Cougar2000All-American
728 days ago
Score 2+-
The computer will crash and fall like a cake in the oven when someone slams the oven door! I really think that Ohio State and Southern California should go to Pasadena, case closed.
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JMFlyer1454Draft Pick
728 days ago
Score 2+-
To play in the Rose Bowl? Or for the National Championship? Because the National Championship is in New Orleans this year.
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PSU ROCKSVarsity Captain
728 days ago
Score 1+-
dam those oven door slammers y cant u just be gentle
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I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer
728 days ago
Score 0+-
I don't want the Bucks to play USC because they play each other in the regular season the next two years anyway. I think it would be hilarious (and a good case for a playoff system) if Kansas ends up going to the National Championship because they lost the play-in to the Big 12 Championship game.
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PSU ROCKSVarsity Captain
728 days ago
Score 0+-
hasnt this happened only like once in the history of college football where 1 and 2 lost on the same day and that was earlier this year
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TrizzAll-American
728 days ago
Score 0+-
as much as we all want to wish otherwise it will be OSU vs LSU its common sense when LSU won they unofficially leapfrogged Georgia and became #4 and with WVU and Mizzou losing every team moves up 2 places so OSU #1 LSU #2 Georgia #3 Va Tech #4....its not as complicated as people make it seem
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JasonOWaterboy
728 days ago
Score -1+-
It is tough to go undefeated, but being #12 and nearly getting beaten by lowly Washington at home in such an important game is probably enough to keep the Warriors from moving up too many notches. They should get a nice BCS game though. I think that LSU will likely get it because they beat VTech earlier this year, but I hope Georgia does. I'm not a Bulldog fan, but LSU has controlled their BCS fate twice this year and lost both times. Georgia has two losses as well, but both were earlier in the season- they have since won six straight, and spanked Auburn there in that time, and I think they are playing the best football of anyone in the league. Ohio State vs. Georgia would be a great game.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
728 days ago
Score 2+-
What does it matter when Georgia lost their games compared to LSU? LSU won their division in the SEC, Georgia did not. LSU beat Tennessee, Georgia did not.
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The PipDiv-I Stud
728 days ago
Score 1+-
I want to hear no crying from those 2 loss schools. Going into the season every Div-1a team assumes that you have to go undefeated to have a chance, and if you are lucky you get a second chance with one loss. So don't lose to unranked opponents and we wouldn't have this issue. Except VaTech who did not lose to an unranked opponent, to them I say play those last 5 minutes against BC and we don't have this "problem" So I don't care what 2 loss team gets a 3rd chance because none of them can complain they all had their fate in their own hands. They all blew their chanceS (plural!) ON THE FIELD, so they cannot complain. Don't say you deserve a chance against Ohio State when you can't beat: South Carolina, Kentucky, Pitt, Staford, or Colorado. Sorry that BS does not fly. Hawaii I almost feel bad for but if the BCS schools won't play you then that blows. Pay them more, or complain about this, because you have a valid complaint against Michigan, Michigan St, and USC. Yell and scream about this valid issue. Make sure everyone knows that these schools are cowards and that you aren't getting your chance to show the world what you can do on the field.
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DNLLegend
728 days ago
Score 2+-
I mostly agree -- which is why I take Hawaii.

Ohio State is your national champs in my book. They won their conference with one-loss. No other major conference team can claim that. LSU, USC, et al had their chances -- and blew it.

Hawaii hasn't had it's chance yet. Who cares that, 10 games out of 12, they lose to any of these two-loss teams. 8 times out of 10, these two-loss teams win! That's the whole problem! They need to win 11 out of 12.

Give Hawaii the chance that LSU and the rest already blew. If it means OSU has a cakewalk to the trophy, so be it -- they, and only they, deserved it.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
728 days ago
Score 1+-
I don't know how one can support the BCS after this season, Hawaii is the only team to win every game it played, and they have little to no shot of making the title game. You've got a bunch of 1 loss and 2 loss teams floating around, and none of them are clear #1s and #2s. There's little to no merit in the BCS system.
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SportsGerbilJV Squad
728 days ago
Score 1+-
Hawaii would be blown away by any of the schools discussed to be in the BCS Title Game. And Trizz, it does seem rather simple to me too. Only reason this has juice is because LSU would have to jump over three teams to get into the two spot. Va Tech, Kansas, and Georgia.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
728 days ago
Score 5+-
And Oklahoma would crush Boise State? How about Appalachian State against Michigan? Pittsburgh against WVU? The game is played on the field. Hawaii would be an underdog against the other top teams, but they could still win. Every game starts off 0-0.
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DNLLegend
728 days ago
Score 1+-
I think this year is the perfect example of why a tournament is a terrible, terrible idea.

If you have an 8 team tourney, who do you take? Clearly the six major conference champs, but then ... Georgia and Kansas? So you leave out *undefeated* Hawaii? And what about two-loss Arizona State? Or two-loss Missouri -- a team which basically was unlucky enough to face an OU team it matched up poorly against, twice.

Fine, you say, let's move to 16 teams. In that case, we either have 10 at-larges (no way, no how) all five "minor" conference teams getting in with 5 at larges. The five at larges? Georgia, Kansas, ASU, Missouri and... uh... you could make the case for about ten different teams.

That's a big, big problem, because this year especially, that last team (Florida? Illinois? etc.) could very easily win the tournament -- as could the sixth team that was left out. This isn't like March Madness, where an 19-14 team who is given a #1 seed in the NIT instead of an 11 seed in the big show is, at best, going to flame out in the E-8. Here, a team that is a marginal inclusion has a very real chance of "winning" the championship -- and that's just BS.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
728 days ago
Score 1+-
How about 12 teams? Top 4 get a bye, games played at the field of the better seed, any "marginal" team would have to win 4 games (3 of which on the road) against the best teams in the country in order to win the title. And how come supporters of the BCS or people against a playoff always cite the possibility of upset wins? Didn't everyone become huge George Mason fans during their run? Didn't Boone, NC get on the map because of what Appalachian State did earlier this year?
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DNLLegend
728 days ago
Score 0+-
I see George Mason more like Hawaii than Florida... don't you?
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Steel TownDraft Pick
728 days ago
Score 1+-
I fail to see how every team having a "very real" chance at winning is an argument against a tournament. I think it's quite the opposite. That is the problem with the BCS, is that not enough teams get a chance. Of course you have to draw the line somewhere, but you will always have teams on the fringe complaining. I say so what. Give me a playoff anyday.
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Davis21wylieMVP
727 days ago
Score 0+-
This year is a great example of why a tournament is a terrific idea. If you look at teams by straight W-L, then, yeah, you could say "oh, there's so many teams who deserve a chance," but I'll say it again: We need to look at point differential when ranking teams. I'm tired of the political correctness. The best teams will separate themselves from lesser teams with the same record by the plain fact that they dominate while the weak teams squeak out wins. And given that, I think that by looking at pt-diff and SOS, the 12 clear-cut best teams in the country are: Oklahoma, Florida, Ohio State, West Virginia, Oregon, Kansas, Southern Cal, LSU, South Florida, Missouri, Virginia Tech, and Arizona State. All you have to do from there is to go through with Rawbeezeitz's idea of a first-round bye to the top 4, etc., and we'll finally have a real champion in college football. Who wouldn't want to see that? I mean, sure, there will always be weaselly little complaints about the cutoff, but the beauty of looking at point differential instead of pure W-L is that you can say, "Not only should you have won, but you should have won bigger." End of story.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
727 days ago
Score 0+-
I don't think point differential should matter. What about those monstrous blowouts Oklahoma had at the beginning of the year when they played teams like North Texas? Are you telling me that's more impressive than a 3 point win against a good team?
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Davis21wylieMVP
727 days ago
Score 0+-
Point differential + strength of schedule, my friend. A good margin is relative to the opponent -- beating a Top 25 team by 3 may be the equivalent to beating a weak team by 33, in which case the blowout would get no extra weight over the squeaker. But point differential matters very much when it comes to predicting future games (and, therefore, telling us who the strongest teams are). Do we want the 2 best teams to play in the championship game (or in my example make the playoffs), or the 2 that were lucky enough/played an easy enough schedule? The 2 best teams would make for a fairer, more ideal matchup, and the BCS has made a serious mistake by moving away from that in favor of political correctness.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
727 days ago
Score 0+-
OK, well let's say a team like LSU beats a team like Tennessee by 10 points on the road. At the same time, a team like Virginia Tech beats a team like Duke by 42 points at home. And at the same time, a team like Oklahoma beats a team like Texas by 4 points in a neutral location. How would you quantify the "impressiveness" of these games?

Doesn't including margin of victory encourage good teams to only schedule bad teams they can crush? And doesn't margin of victory counteract strength of schedule? A team with a difficult schedule will find it hard to blow out its competition each week. But a team with a cupcake schedule will improve their BCS positioning by dominating lesser competition.

The problem is, there's such a huge number of teams out there so comparing teams mathematically loses something. This isn't the NFL, wherein one team will play 13 other teams (42% of the entire League). In college, one team will play 10% of the rest of the teams, or less. How does one compare what Team A does against 1/10 of the teams out there with what Team B does with a different 1/10?
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Davis21wylieMVP
727 days ago
Score 0+-
A neural network-like system creates a web where every team is connected to every other team... When a game is played, it sorts the teams automatically not just by who won but by how much. After all of the games, it can tell you essentially by how many points each team should be favored over any other team by dynamically factoring in p-diff and SOS. The inclusion of more, better information (p-diff) is always better than less info (straight W-L). In the real world, it not only matters that you won, but how much you won by.
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Anonymous Fanatic #2
728 days ago
Score 1+-
I disagree, DNL-- the problem you mention is the exact same problem with picking who goes to the National Championship game, except we are just going to make that decision. Also, a tournament could involve the top 4 teams and become a 2 game playoff system.

In this case, I think LSU clearly deserves to be #2. I really don't understand how you can compare their two losses, both in triple overtime to teams with winning records, to Georgia's losses, and also ignore the fact that LSU won the SEC by saying "Georgia hasn't lost in a month!"

It really is just illogical. Triple overtime is the closest you can come to a tie and still lose-- I think the overtime system in college is kind of stupid. Just look at the Arkansas game-- they scored the tying touchdown, but they didn't get the 2 point conversion. Is that reason enough to say they don't deserve to play in the National Championship game??
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DNLLegend
728 days ago
Score 0+-
I never said that I'd just use the standard, current system. I'd use my system from last year.
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SportsGerbilJV Squad
728 days ago
Score 1+-
DNL, you've gotta have a cutoff at some point. Team #9 being left out is just the way of sports. Even in college basketball you get teams 66, 67, 68 griping. There is nothing you can do to stop it. But that is just the way it is. Team #3 has a LEGIT right to gripe, especially in Auburn's case three years ago when they went undefeated in the SEC.
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False ProphetAll-Star
728 days ago
Score 0+-
the difference is team 9 would be a legitimate contender for the national championship. 66,67,68 would be lucky to win a game
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SportsGerbilJV Squad
728 days ago
Score 0+-
And DNL... That's some system. I don't think the college presidents could understand it though, haha. But I think it is rather simple. Make it a 12-team tournament (6 major conference champs, 6 at-larges), and give the top 4 BCS teams byes. Similar to the NFL playoff system. If you have a team like Hawaii this year or Boise State last year, that team must be included in the system. Keep the ND rule, if they go 9-2 or better they are in. Home games for the better seed in the first two rounds, then have the four major bowls be the semifinals, final and 3rd place game. Semis on Jan 1st, Final on Jan 8th. Very simple.
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DNLLegend
728 days ago
Score 0+-
I'll never happen. Your system has games being played during finals, or, if you extend the season instead, up against the NFL playoffs. The fact is that there are two big problems with a 16-team playoff: (a) in many years, an 8-team bracket makes a LOT more sense and (b) it is at least one week, if not two weeks, too long.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
727 days ago
Score 1+-
God knows that having games during finals would be a tremendous blow to all those studious D-IA football players, whose academic lives mean so much more to them than football.</sarcasm>
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SportsGerbilJV Squad
728 days ago
Score 1+-
In baseball, team #9 could win the World Series, but they didn't qualify for the playoffs. Can't disgard the regular season altogether.
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SportsGerbilJV Squad
728 days ago
Score 3+-
The other college divisions handle playoffs just fine, even with finals and all that junk. It can be done.
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KelsdadAll-Star
728 days ago
Score 1+-
Everyone knows BCS stands for Big Crock of Shit, anyone posting on this article could come up with a better system in less time than it took to write it. That said, though, it is what it is.

As is the case with basketball, the top teams schedule lesser opponents so as to prepare themselves for their in-conference games. Problem is, football plays, at most, 8-10 in conference and maybe 12 games all season, basketball three times that amount. So a loss to Marshmallow State or Cupcake U has more of a negative impact on their BCS rating.

I think USC and Cal should be penalized in some form for not playing Hawaii, they're avoiding a game they know they could easily lose.

On the other hand, should West Virginia be penalized for playing a bad game? WV puts 66 on the board against UConn, at the time a top 20 team. UConn blows out Pitt by 20 something. Pitt beats WV. Hollywood writers couldn't make this shit up, yet here we are talking about reality.

Every other school has lost a game they should have won, so if I had a BCS vote I would put less emphasis on their losses than I would have in the past. And I agree 100% with Dan, Hawaii should not be screwed over because no one would play them (that tells me right there they are legit) or because they weren't a preseason favorite for anything. They're undefeated, they beat good teams on the road, so what's the problem. Same thing with Colt Brennan and the Heisman. The kid put up numbers, period.

I'm discounting Tech's loss yesterday as a fluke, although they did lose to LSU, who has not played well themselves. USC hasn't exactly impressed anyone lately, the only team who has stepped up and won when they were supposed to is Oklahoma.

So my BCS title game is Oklahoma and Hawaii, and I'll take Hawaii and the points.
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Kwitt11Varsity Captain
728 days ago
Score 0+-
These games are scheduled like five years in advance. You really think the reason USC didn't want to play them was because they somehow knew they were going to be this good?
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DNLLegend
728 days ago
Score 1+-
Kwitt, yes, because of the circumstances. This Hawaii team has a Heisman candidate and had only three losses last year, all to very good teams. They had a game scheduled at Michigan State, but the Spartans bought their way out of it ($250,000). So Hawaii went around trying to find a taker. Both Michigan and USC, who I assume had open dates, passed.
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KelsdadAll-Star
728 days ago
Score 1+-
Not always the case. Teams do keep open dates so as to schedule games with teams they can get a gate boost from or a BCS boost.
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SportsGerbilJV Squad
728 days ago
Score 0+-
Kels, Tech loss?
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Kwitt11Varsity Captain
727 days ago
Score 1+-
Hawaii is basically a Kansas team that didn't have to play Missouri. You can't tell me you think Hawaii would beat Missouri on a neutral field. It sucks that teams backed out of playing them, but you can't give them credit for something they didn't do - beat someone good.
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DNLLegend
727 days ago
Score 0+-
I'm not.

I'm giving them credit for not losing.

Imagine last year if Wisconsin beat Michigan, and Michigan had another loss (so, losses to Wisc, OSU, and Illinois). They'd have played the same type of schedule as Kansas, but wouldn't be a BCS conference champion. OSU would be the only other undefeated team (other than Boise State). Would *anyone* not have a Wisconsin/OSU title game? Of course not.

But think about it -- Wisconsin's schedule is maybe two orders of magnitude harder than Hawaii's (and, for that matter, Boise State's last year). But this year, the *second best* team in the nation, other than Hawaii, is a two-loss team.

If a small conference team can't get into the title game this year, they never can. Period.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
727 days ago
Score 0+-
All you can do is beat every team on your schedule. That is the most any football team can do. This isn't some movie where the underdog rag-tag team challenges the evil pro team to a backyard game. Hawaii beat everyone they scheduled, and everyone who scheduled Hawaii lost to them. Would Hawaii have beaten Missouri or Oklahoma or OSU or WVU or LSU or Georgia, there is no way of knowing that. But they deserve THE OPPORTUNITY to beat them.
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SportsGerbilJV Squad
727 days ago
Score 0+-
Teams make commitments dealing with their schedule years in advance. I don't think anyone backed out of playing Hawaii. It just didn't happen. LSU #2 in the coaches poll. So 1/3rd of the BCS is out with LSU looking good.
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DNLLegend
727 days ago
Score 1+-
Michigan State did. They paid $250,000 to Hawaii to *not* play them this year.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
727 days ago
Score 0+-
So when Hawaii scheduled Washington, how could Hawaii predict that Washington would be mediocre? Hell, Washington looked good to start off 2007, how could anyone predict how good they'd be in 2002 when they scheduled each other?
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
727 days ago
Score 0+-
And I can also imagine teams refusing to play Hawaii. Why would they? What could they gain from it? If you beat a team like Hawaii, you don't gain much in the polls. If you lose, it's embarrassing and all over ESPN, hell, even if it's close, it is a big story. There's no way a BCS regular like Oklahoma or USC would gain an advantage by scheduling Hawaii. They could only lose out by scheduling them.
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Tyrone BriggsHall of Famer
727 days ago
Score 2+-
All this arguing over who should play for the National Championship? Doesn't that validate the argument that deciding who is the best should be determined on the field and not by a bunch of computers or scribes?
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LASportsblogAAA-er
727 days ago
Score 0+-
Sadly, it's become apparent that that makes too much sense to actually try.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
727 days ago
Score 0+-
Yes but the traditionalists in and around college football are terrified of change. College football has been around for how long? 120 odd years? And for half that time the champion was determined by a vote BEFORE the bowl games. Big time college football is the slowest changing sport in this country.
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