B5TKM - College Analysis and Picks for Week 5
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by Kdubdub
I had a pretty tough time last week against the spread...
I went 2-3 in my "Best 5 Teamer Known to Man" college picks. Overall for the year I'm 7-8 which really isn't that great but I always try and stick with the marquee games. Last week I did all SEC where I called the Georgia win and the Auburn blowout. I missed on LSU, Florida, and Arkansas, who has really been a disappoint meant so far.
But, what about Andre' Woodson from Kentucky? All I can say is that I'm impressed by what he brings to the table and how he has performed over the last two years. Check out some of his stats since 2006:
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- 42 TD - 7 Int (all 7 last year) over 17 games
- 63% completion percentage in 2006 / 64.2 % in 2007
- 9-1 last 10 games (including bowl game)
- No INTs in 8 straight games
That is not too bad, not at all. I honestly think that Woodson and Matt Ryan from BC have been the two best quarterbacks that I have seen all year (Brian Brohm has also looked very good). If you haven't seen Ryan yet you will. He put on a clinic when he shredded my Georgia Tech D for over 450 yards.
Speaking of Boston College, this leads me into the biggest observation I have seen so far this year in college football...
You can't trust the polls
The easy examples are Lousiville and Michigan. Both were top 10 teams to start the year and both have 2 losses. Think about Michigan for a second. If App. St doesn't block that kick and Dennis Dixon goes down early what would they be ranked right now? Still #5 at least.
The Picks...
1. Auburn @ Florida (-18 1/2) Florida is looking for revenge after last years loss to Auburn. Tim Tebow, and the prolific Florida offense, are set to put a serious hurting on Auburn (according to Las Vegas odds). The only thing is that I think Auburn will be ready for their offense. Why? Kansas St., South Florida, and New Mexico St... all 3 teams run unconventional spread offenses not quite like Florida but in that same mold. As long as Brandon Cox can control the game and the turnovers, his defense will make it a tight game... Auburn +18 1/2
2. Alabama @ Florida St (-3 1/2) It is pretty simple. FSU can stop the run. The Tide cannot. The weather report calls for rain. FSU rolls in a sloppy, physical match that Alabama is not ready for... FSU -3 1/2
3. Clemson (-3) @ Georgia Tech I was really high on Tech until they ran into BC. The secondary could not stop Matt Ryan and they were embarrassed in the primetime game. They also were embarrassed very bad against Clemson last year on the road. Just like the BC game, it was the primetime game and they didn't show up. I think that will serve as motivation for Tech who is senior heavy on the Defense and they know their backs are against the wall with 2 ACC losses... GT +3
4. West Virginia (-7) @ South Florida One thing that keeps sticking out to me is WV's defense and that 3-3-5 look. It has not been impressive while South Florida has been stout on both sides of the ball. But this is a rivalry game and WV is looking for payback after last years loss at their hands. Tensions are high already and then Matt Grothe had to give them this friendly nugget about last years 24-19 win..."We still could have had even more points. It could have been, easily, 50-something to 10." Like WV isn't motivated enough... WV -7
5. Cal @ Oregon (-5) Too much offense...too much speed for both teams. You have some big time playmakers in this game. I think that if Cal can jump up on them early (which Stanford did to Oregon last week) they have more than enough offense to keep pouring it on and match scores once Oregon gets going. But will the Oregon Duck go postal and whip Cal's mascots tail during the game...that is the real question... Cal +5
