Atlanta Braves 2007 Preview
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by user kelsdad
Win totals last three seasons: 96, 90, 79
2006 League Rankings: Offense: 5, Defense 9, Pitching 12
Park Factor: Turner Field, 11 out of 30, slight edge to offense
Opening Day; April 2 @ Philadelphia, Home Opener; April 6 v. New York
Probable Lineup:
Andruw Jones CF
Pitching:
After finishing in the top five in the National League in pitching for 11 of the past 15 seasons, maybe there is something to Leo Mazzone's theory of pitching......nah, there's not, the only problem with the Braves pitching last season was the absence of John Smoltz' two golfing buddies. It's not like Tim Hudson and Chuck James are bums, they're just not Hall of Famers. So the slack has to be picked up elsewhere, and last season it wasn't. The chief culprit was the bullpen, the Braves finished at the bottom of the National League in 2006, blowing 29 of 67 save opportunities. The Braves feel they have addressed the inconsistencies in the bullpen by acquiring former Mariners closer Rafael Soriano, who, if healthy, along with his 97 mile an hour heater, will be the primary set-up man for incumbent and possibly temporary closer Bob Wickman. The reason I say "incumbent" is the Braves also acquired Pirates closer Mike Gonzalez in the Adam LaRoche deal. While the closer job is important to a team's success, who performs the job is not, so whomever gets off to the best start will get the job, with the other likely being dealt for help shoring up other needs within the roster. With the Braves chief division competitors, the Phillies and Mets being predominately left handed, Bobby Cox would prefer to keep Gonzalez, but also realizes he can get more for him as well. Right-handers Tyler Yates, Chad Paronto, Oscar Villareal and lefty Macay McBride figure to round out the bullpen.
The rotation had hoped to receive a boost from the return of Mike Hampton, who missed the past year and a half with elbow problems which ultimately led to Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, Hampton injured himself taking batting practice during a Spring Training drill and early expectations of a return is the middle of May. In addition to Smoltz and Hudson, the remainder of the rotation figures to be Lance Cormier and Chuck James with Kyle Davies filling in for Hampton, providing he is healthy. If Davies can't go, then Tanyon Sturtze and possibly Villareal will handle the fifth spot in the rotation.
Offense:
One key element in the Braves consistent winning ways over the past 15 seasons has been the uncanny knack of making a specific player transaction a specific need. On some occasions, getting rid of a player filled the same needs. The Braves finished second in the National League in batting average and runs scored, yet traded away Adam LaRoche and his .285-32-85 numbers. They apparently felt his second half surge last season was an abberation, and his pending victory in arbitration wasn't a good investment for the future. Rookie Scott Thorman is the only first baseman on the roster, he did hit 15 homers in 309 AB's at Triple A Richmond last season, and hit .234 with the Braves in limited action. Converted outfielder Kelly Johnson replaces the departed Marcus Giles at second base and also the leadoff spot. A foot injury limited Chipper Jones to 107 games in '06, but he still managed to post 324-26-86 numbers, a season most ML players would take for 162 games. A healthy Chipper is key to any hoped upon resurgence for the Braves this season. HItting primarily from the second spot, Edgar Renteria posted a second consecutive season of 100 runs scored and 70 RBI, while flashing his usual leather at shortstop.
Another player with an alarming split differential was rightfielder Jeff Francoeur, who despite 29 homers and 103 RBI posted and embarrassing .293 on base average, a result of only 23 walks (to go along with 132 K's). A solid defensive player, Francoeur needs to develop plate discipline and stop giving away atbats in order to become more effective in the Braves lineup. Centerfielder Andruw Jones enters his free-agent season coming off his second straight 40+ homer season. Jones is entering his 11th ML season in '07, despite not turning 30 until after the season starts, and his recent numbers aside, cracks in his game are starting to show, especially defensively. If there is any All-Star caliber player who will likely be traded this coming season, its Andruw. As with LaRoche, the Braves won't overpay for decreased production. Leftfield will be manned by journeyman Ryan Langerhans and Matt Diaz, with Kelly Johnson possibly seeing time there as well.
One of the most pleasant surprises of the 2006 season was the one turned in by catcher Brian McCann. The sweet swinger turned in a .333 season in 130 games, which far surpassed his previous career high season average by 55 points. McCann grades a 55 defensively on the ML Scouting scale (20-80), and most observers in the Braves organization feel he has peaked. Former first round pick Jarrod Saltalamacchia, just 21 years old, suffered a wrist injury in early 2006 but appears healthy so far in 2007. The Braves consider "Salty" to be their catcher of the future, with a move to third or first base likely in McCann's future.
Bench:
The Braves signed super-sub Chris Woodward in the offseason, he can play any position but pitcher and catcher. Former Dodgers prospect Willy Aybar backs up at third and short, with rookie Martin Prado likely in the mix somewhere. Rookie T.J. Bohn, acquired from Seattle in the Soriano deal, may make the team as the fourth or fifth outfielder, depending on how other positions pan out.
Contributing rookie:
With the health concerns of Hampton and Davies in question, #1 Minor League prospect lefthander Matt Harrison may figure in on the pitching rotation at some point in 2007. Harrison posted an 11-8 record with a 3.35 ERA in two minor league stops last season, and has an average major league fastball and curve to go along with his number one offering, a power sinker. Another player likely to spend considerable time in Atlanta is second baseman Martin Prado, a slick fielder who surprised the Braves with a .278 average in Double-A. If Prado were to win the second base job, this would likely force Kelly Johnson to leftfield, with Langerhans and Diaz relegaded to a more permanent bench role.
Key Player:
Francoeur. Jeff needs to even out his splits differential, especially the home/road, and must drastically improve on his pitiful OBP. If he does that, then he will be the protection for Andruw and Chipper Jones the Braves are counting on, if not, he'll be the only 30 homer guy in the majors hitting eighth.
