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Davis21wylie
I'm a 23-year-old Georgia Tech grad who lives and dies with the Yellow Jackets, Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics. I'll also catch the odd Braves game now and then.

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Win Probability - 2008 NCAA Men's Championship Game

by Davis21wylie
created April 08, 2008, last edited February 10, 2009
23
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Using Ed Kupfer's WinEx formula and ESPN's Play by Play, I kept track of each team's Win Probability during tonight's amazing game, and I thought I'd share with you the graph (a la Fan Graphs) and the raw data...

The key plays (big swings in Win Expectancy) noted above are:

  1. Chris Douglas-Roberts made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Derrick Rose.
  2. Antonio Anderson made Three Point Jumper.
  3. Derrick Rose made Two Point Jumper.
  4. Sherron Collins made Two Point Layup.
  5. Shawn Taggart made Two Point Layup. Assisted by Robert Dozier.
  6. Sherron Collins made Three Point Jumper.
  7. Darrell Arthur made Two Point Jumper.
  8. Mario Chalmers made Three Point Jumper!!! (+60.0% WPA)
  9. Chris Douglas-Roberts made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Derrick Rose.

And here's the full PBP with Win Probability. "Time" is simply minutes remaining (including OT); "BigPlay" is the swing in WinEx caused by that play. Initial probabilities were computed using Ken Pomeroy's Ratings and the log5 formula.

PBP						Time 	KU Lead	Kansas	Memphis BigPlay
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tip Off						45.0	0	61.2%	38.8%	0.0%
Joey Dorsey made Two Point Jumper.		44.8	-2	54.6%	45.4%	6.6%
Darrell Arthur missed Two Point Jumper.		44.4	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Antonio Anderson Defensive Rebound.		44.4	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Foul on Antonio Anderson			44.1	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Brandon Rush missed Free Throw.			44.1	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Brandon Rush made Free Throw.			44.1	-1	57.9%	42.1%	3.3%
Antonio Anderson missed Three Point Jumper.	43.9	-1	57.9%	42.1%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur Defensive Rebound.		43.9	-1	57.9%	42.1%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Two Point Layup.	43.7	-3	51.2%	48.8%	6.7%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Two Point Jumper.	43.2	-3	51.2%	48.8%	0.0%
Derrick Rose Offensive Rebound.			43.2	-3	51.2%	48.8%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Dunk Shot.	43.0	-1	57.9%	42.1%	6.7%
Robert Dozier made Two Point Jumper.		42.6	-3	51.2%	48.8%	6.7%
Darnell Jackson missed Two Point Jumper.	42.5	-3	51.2%	48.8%	0.0%
Derrick Rose Defensive Rebound.			42.5	-3	51.2%	48.8%	0.0%
Foul on Mario Chalmers				42.4	-3	51.2%	48.8%	0.0%
Derrick Rose missed Three Point Jumper.		42.1	-3	51.2%	48.8%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers Defensive Rebound.		42.1	-3	51.2%	48.8%	0.0%
Derrick Rose made Two Point Jumper.		41.7	-5	44.6%	55.4%	6.6%
Foul on Russell Robinson			41.7	-5	44.6%	55.4%	0.0%
Derrick Rose made Free Throw.			41.7	-6	41.4%	58.6%	3.2%
Foul on Robert Dozier				41.3	-6	41.4%	58.6%	0.0%
Brandon Rush missed Three Point Jumper.		41.0	-6	41.4%	58.6%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur Offensive Rebound.		41.0	-6	41.4%	58.6%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur missed Two Point Layup.		40.8	-6	41.4%	58.6%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur Offensive Rebound.		40.8	-6	41.4%	58.6%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Tip Shot.		40.8	-4	47.9%	52.1%	6.5%
Shawn Taggart missed Three Point Jumper.	40.6	-4	47.9%	52.1%	0.0%
Kansas Defensive Rebound.			40.6	-4	47.9%	52.1%	0.0%
Official TV Timeout.				40.6	-4	47.9%	52.1%	0.0%
Sasha Kaun made Two Point Dunk Shot.		40.4	-2	54.6%	45.4%	6.7%
Derrick Rose missed Two Point Jumper.		39.8	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Brandon Rush Defensive Rebound.			39.8	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Jumper.		39.6	0	61.3%	38.7%	6.7%
Darrell Arthur missed Two Point Jumper.		39.0	0	61.3%	38.7%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts Defensive Reboun.		39.0	0	61.3%	38.7%	0.0%
Foul on Darrell Arthur				38.7	0	61.3%	38.7%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Free Throw.		38.7	-1	58.0%	42.0%	3.3%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Free Throw.		38.7	-2	54.6%	45.4%	3.4%
Sherron Collins made Two Point Layup.		38.5	0	61.3%	38.7%	6.7%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Two Point Jumper.	38.2	-2	54.6%	45.4%	6.7%
Mario Chalmers missed Three Point Jumper.	37.9	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Robert Dozier Defensive Rebound.		37.9	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Two Point Jumper.	37.8	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Darnell Jackson Defensive Rebound.		37.8	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Foul on Shawn Taggart				37.8	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Foul on Shawn Taggart				37.3	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Foul on Robert Dozier				37.1	-2	54.6%	45.4%	0.0%
Darnell Jackson made Free Throw.		37.1	-1	58.0%	42.0%	3.4%
Darnell Jackson made Free Throw.		37.1	0	61.3%	38.7%	3.3%
Robert Dozier missed Two Point Jumper.		36.9	0	61.3%	38.7%	0.0%
Darnell Jackson Defensive Rebound.		36.9	0	61.3%	38.7%	0.0%
Official TV Timeout.				36.6	0	61.3%	38.7%	0.0%
Shawn Taggart missed Two Point Jumper.		36.2	0	61.3%	38.7%	0.0%
Brandon Rush Defensive Rebound.			36.2	0	61.3%	38.7%	0.0%
Brandon Rush made Two Point Layup.		36.0	2	67.6%	32.4%	6.3%
Foul on Sherron Collins				35.6	2	67.7%	32.3%	0.0%
Shawn Taggart missed Two Point Jumper.		35.5	2	67.7%	32.3%	0.0%
Shawn Taggart Offensive Rebound.		35.5	2	67.7%	32.3%	0.0%
Shawn Taggart missed Two Point Jumper.		35.2	2	67.7%	32.3%	0.0%
Russell Robinson Defensive Rebound.		35.2	2	67.7%	32.3%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers made Three Point Jumper.		35.0	5	76.0%	24.0%	8.3%
Derrick Rose missed Two Point Jumper.		34.7	5	76.0%	24.0%	0.0%
Darnell Jackson Defensive Rebound.		34.7	5	76.0%	24.0%	0.0%
Foul on Joey Dorsey				34.7	5	76.0%	24.0%	0.0%
Joey Dorsey made Two Point Dunk Shot.		34.5	3	70.6%	29.4%	5.4%
Mario Chalmers made Two Point Layup.		34.0	5	76.0%	24.0%	5.4%
Foul on Russell Robinson			33.8	5	76.1%	23.9%	0.0%
Doneal Mack missed Three Point Jumper.		33.6	5	76.1%	23.9%	0.0%
Sherron Collins Defensive Rebound.		33.6	5	76.1%	23.9%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Dunk Shot.	33.5	7	80.7%	19.3%	4.6%
Antonio Anderson made Three Point Jumper.	33.1	4	73.5%	26.5%	7.2%
Mario Chalmers made Two Point Layup.		32.9	6	78.5%	21.5%	5.0%
Robert Dozier made Three Point Jumper.		32.8	3	70.7%	29.3%	7.8%
Official TV Timeout.				32.4	3	70.7%	29.3%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Two Point Layup.	32.1	1	64.6%	35.4%	6.1%
Sasha Kaun missed Two Point Layup.		31.6	1	64.6%	35.4%	0.0%
Robert Dozier Defensive Rebound.		31.5	1	64.6%	35.4%	0.0%
Antonio Anderson missed Two Point Jumper.	31.5	1	64.6%	35.4%	0.0%
Derrick Rose Offensive Rebound.			31.5	1	64.6%	35.4%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Three Point Jumper. 	31.4	-2	54.5%	45.5%	10.1%
Sherron Collins made Two Point Jumper.		31.1	0	61.3%	38.7%	6.8%
Robert Dozier missed Two Point Layup.		30.7	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers Defensive Rebound.		30.7	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Sherron Collins missed Three Point Jumper.	30.5	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers Offensive Rebound.		30.5	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Sasha Kaun made Two Point Dunk Shot. 		30.4	2	67.8%	32.2%	6.4%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Two Point Jumper.	29.9	0	61.4%	38.6%	6.4%
Antonio Anderson missed Three Point Jumper.	28.9	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Kansas Defensive Rebound.			28.9	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Official TV Timeout.				28.8	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Sherron Collins missed Two Point Jumper.	28.4	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Darnell Jackson Offensive Rebound.		28.4	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Brandon Rush missed Three Point Jumper.		28.4	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Derrick Rose Defensive Rebound.			28.4	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Three Point Jumper.27.8	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Sherron Collins Defensive Rebound.		27.8	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Brandon Rush made Two Point Jumper.		27.5	2	67.9%	32.1%	6.5%
Foul on Joey Dorsey				27.5	2	67.9%	32.1%	0.0%
Brandon Rush made Free Throw.			27.5	3	70.9%	29.1%	3.0%
Mario Chalmers missed Two Point Layup.		27.0	3	70.9%	29.1%	0.0%
Sasha Kaun Offensive Rebound.			27.0	3	70.9%	29.1%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers missed Three Point Jumper.	26.8	3	70.9%	29.1%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur Offensive Rebound.		26.8	3	70.9%	29.1%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Jumper. 		26.5	5	76.5%	23.5%	5.6%
Mario Chalmers missed Two Point Jumper.		26.0	5	76.6%	23.4%	0.0%
Robert Dozier Defensive Rebound.		26.0	5	76.6%	23.4%	0.0%
Foul on Darrell Arthur				26.0	5	76.6%	23.4%	0.0%
Memphis Full Timeout.				26.0	5	76.6%	23.4%	0.0%
Antonio Anderson missed Three Point Jumper.	25.5	5	76.6%	23.4%	0.1%
Shawn Taggart Offensive Rebound.		25.5	5	76.6%	23.4%	0.0%
End of the 1st Half.				25.0	5	76.7%	23.3%	0.0%
Robert Dozier made Two Point Dunk Shot.		24.6	3	71.0%	29.0%	5.6%
Antonio Anderson made Three Point Jumper.	24.0	0	61.4%	38.6%	9.6%
Foul on Antonio Anderson			23.4	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers made Free Throw.			23.4	1	64.8%	35.2%	3.4%
Mario Chalmers made Free Throw.			23.4	2	68.0%	32.0%	3.2%
Antonio Anderson made Two Point Layup.		23.3	0	61.4%	38.6%	6.6%
Foul on Darnell Jackson				23.2	0	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
Antonio Anderson made Free Throw.		23.2	-1	58.0%	42.0%	3.5%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Layup.		22.8	1	64.8%	35.2%	6.8%
Robert Dozier missed Two Point Layup.		22.4	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Joey Dorsey Offensive Rebound.			22.4	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Two Point Jumper.	22.2	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Russell Robinson Defensive Rebound.		22.2	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers missed Two Point Jumper.		22.0	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Antonio Anderson Defensive Rebound.		22.0	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Two Point Layup.	21.9	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Robert Dozier Offensive Rebound.		21.9	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Robert Dozier missed Two Point Layup.		21.8	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Robert Dozier Offensive Rebound.		21.8	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers missed Three Point Jumper.	21.7	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Antonio Anderson Defensive Rebound.		21.7	1	64.8%	35.2%	0.0%
Joey Dorsey made Two Point Dunk Shot.		21.6	-1	58.0%	42.0%	6.9%
Foul on Chris Douglas-Roberts			21.3	-1	57.9%	42.1%	0.0%
Foul on Joey Dorsey				21.1	-1	57.9%	42.1%	0.0%
Russell Robinson made Two Point Layup.		21.1	1	64.8%	35.2%	6.9%
Derrick Rose missed Two Point Jumper.		20.5	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Brandon Rush Defensive Rebound.			20.5	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Official TV Timeout.				20.3	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Robert Dozier missed Two Point Layup.		19.7	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Sasha Kaun Defensive Rebound.			19.7	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Derrick Rose missed Two Point Layup.		19.5	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Russell Robinson Defensive Rebound.		19.5	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Sasha Kaun missed Two Point Jumper.		19.1	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur Offensive Rebound.		19.1	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur missed Two Point Layup.		19.0	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Derrick Rose Defensive Rebound.			19.0	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Foul on Sherron Collins				19.0	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Antonio Anderson missed Free Throw.		19.0	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Antonio Anderson missed Free Throw.		19.0	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Darnell Jackson Defensive Rebound.		19.0	1	64.9%	35.1%	0.0%
Darnell Jackson made Two Point Jumper. 		18.6	3	71.5%	28.5%	6.6%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Two Point Jumper.	18.3	1	64.9%	35.1%	6.5%
Darnell Jackson made Two Point Layup. 		18.1	3	71.5%	28.5%	6.6%
Antonio Anderson missed Three Point Jumper.	17.5	3	71.6%	28.4%	0.1%
Brandon Rush Defensive Rebound.			17.5	3	71.6%	28.4%	0.0%
Sherron Collins missed Two Point Jumper.	17.3	3	71.6%	28.4%	0.0%
Robert Dozier Defensive Rebound.		17.3	3	71.6%	28.4%	0.0%
Derrick Rose made Two Point Layup.		17.2	1	65.0%	35.0%	6.6%
Official TV Timeout.				16.6	1	65.0%	35.0%	0.0%
Mario Chalmers made Two Point Jumper.		16.1	3	71.8%	28.2%	6.7%
Derrick Rose made Two Point Layup.		15.5	1	65.1%	34.9%	6.7%
Sherron Collins missed Three Point Jumper.	14.9	1	65.1%	34.9%	0.0%
Joey Dorsey Defensive Rebound.			14.9	1	65.1%	34.9%	0.0%
Foul on Sasha Kaun				14.5	1	65.1%	34.9%	0.0%
Brandon Rush made Two Point Layup.		14.3	3	72.0%	28.0%	6.9%
Robert Dozier made Two Point Jumper.		13.8	1	65.2%	34.8%	6.9%
Foul on Sasha Kaun				13.8	1	65.2%	34.8%	0.0%
Robert Dozier missed Free Throw.		13.8	1	65.2%	34.8%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur Defensive Rebound.		13.8	1	65.2%	34.8%	0.0%
Sasha Kaun missed Two Point Layup.		13.5	1	65.2%	34.8%	0.0%
Robert Dozier Defensive Rebound.		13.5	1	65.2%	34.8%	0.0%
Derrick Rose made Three Point Jumper.		13.2	-2	53.8%	46.2%	11.4%
Kansas Full Timeout.				13.1	-2	53.8%	46.2%	0.0%
Foul on Chris Douglas-Roberts			12.9	-2	53.7%	46.3%	0.0%
Official TV Timeout.				12.9	-2	53.7%	46.3%	0.0%
Derrick Rose made Two Point Jumper.		12.6	-4	44.9%	55.1%	8.8%
Sherron Collins missed Three Point Jumper.	12.1	-4	44.6%	55.4%	0.3%
Antonio Anderson Defensive Rebound.		12.1	-4	44.6%	55.4%	0.0%
Derrick Rose missed Two Point Jumper.		11.6	-4	44.3%	55.7%	0.3%
Russell Robinson Defensive Rebound.		11.6	-4	44.3%	55.7%	0.0%
Foul on Chris Douglas-Roberts			11.3	-4	44.2%	55.8%	0.2%
Mario Chalmers missed Two Point Layup.		10.9	-4	43.8%	56.2%	0.3%
Derrick Rose Defensive Rebound.			10.9	-4	43.8%	56.2%	0.0%
Derrick Rose missed Three Point Jumper.		10.2	-4	43.2%	56.8%	0.6%
Robert Dozier Offensive Rebound.		10.2	-4	43.2%	56.8%	0.0%
Derrick Rose made Two Point Layup.		10.2	-6	31.6%	68.4%	11.7%
Foul on Mario Chalmers				10.2	-6	31.6%	68.4%	0.0%
Kansas Full Timeout.				10.2	-6	31.6%	68.4%	0.0%
Derrick Rose made Free Throw.			10.2	-7	25.4%	74.6%	6.1%
Sherron Collins made Two Point Layup.		9.9	-5	37.1%	62.9%	11.7%
Derrick Rose made Two Point Jumper.		9.1	-7	22.2%	77.8%	14.9%
Foul on Derrick Rose				8.8	-7	21.1%	78.9%	1.1%
Official TV Timeout.				8.8	-7	21.1%	78.9%	0.0%
Brandon Rush missed Two Point Layup.		8.6	-7	20.2%	79.8%	0.8%
Darrell Arthur Offensive Rebound.		8.6	-7	20.2%	79.8%	0.0%
Foul on Joey Dorsey				8.6	-7	20.2%	79.8%	0.1%
Darrell Arthur made Free Throw.			8.6	-6	27.2%	72.8%	7.0%
Darrell Arthur made Free Throw.			8.6	-5	34.2%	65.8%	7.0%
Derrick Rose missed Three Point Jumper.		8.1	-5	32.3%	67.7%	1.9%
Robert Dozier Offensive Rebound.		8.1	-5	32.3%	67.7%	0.0%
Shawn Taggart made Two Point Layup. 		7.6	-7	14.9%	85.1%	17.5%
Sherron Collins missed Two Point Layup.		7.5	-7	14.0%	86.0%	0.9%
Shawn Taggart Defensive Rebound.		7.5	-7	13.7%	86.3%	0.2%
Foul on Sherron Collins				7.2	-7	12.0%	88.0%	1.7%
Foul on Brandon Rush				7.2	-7	11.9%	88.1%	0.1%
Robert Dozier made Free Throw.			7.2	-8	6.3%	93.7%	5.6%
Robert Dozier made Free Throw.			7.2	-9	2.9%	97.1%	3.5%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Jumper. 		7.0	-7	9.9%	90.1%	7.0%
Kansas Full Timeout.				6.9	-7	9.5%	90.5%	0.4%
Sherron Collins made Three Point Jumper.	6.8	-4	33.7%	66.3%	24.2%
Foul on Russell Robinson			6.7	-4	32.3%	67.7%	1.4%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Free Throw.		6.7	-5	22.9%	77.1%	9.5%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Free Throw.		6.7	-6	14.1%	85.9%	8.8%
Foul on Joey Dorsey				6.4	-6	10.9%	89.1%	3.2%
Mario Chalmers made Free Throw.			6.4	-5	19.5%	80.5%	8.6%
Mario Chalmers made Free Throw.			6.4	-4	29.5%	70.5%	10.0%
Foul on Mario Chalmers				6.3	-4	27.7%	72.3%	1.8%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Free Throw.	6.3	-4	27.7%	72.3%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur Defensive Rebound.		6.3	-4	27.7%	72.3%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Jumper.		6.0	-2	45.1%	54.9%	17.4%
Memphis Full Timeout.				5.7	-2	41.6%	58.4%	3.5%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Two Point Jumper.	5.5	-2	35.6%	64.4%	6.0%
Sherron Collins Defensive Rebound.		5.5	-2	35.6%	64.4%	0.0%
Foul on Darrell Arthur				5.3	-2	21.6%	78.4%	13.9%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Free Throw.	5.3	-2	21.6%	78.4%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Free Throw.	5.3	-2	21.6%	78.4%	0.0%
Robert Dozier Offensive Rebound.		5.3	-2	21.6%	78.4%	0.0%
Foul on Brandon Rush				5.2	-2	10.2%	89.8%	11.4%
Kansas Full Timeout.				5.2	-2	10.2%	89.8%	0.0%
Derrick Rose missed Free Throw.			5.2	-2	10.2%	89.8%	0.0%
Derrick Rose made Free Throw.			5.2	-3	1.7%	98.3%	8.5%
Mario Chalmers made Three Point Jumper.		5.2	0	61.6%	38.4%	60.0%
Robert Dozier missed Three Point Jumper.	5.1	0	61.6%	38.4%	0.0%
Brandon Rush Defensive Rebound.			5.1	0	61.6%	38.4%	0.0%
End of the 2nd Half.				5.0	0	61.6%	38.4%	0.0%
Brandon Rush made Two Point Layup.		4.5	2	69.7%	30.3%	8.1%
Memphis Full Timeout.				4.4	2	69.8%	30.2%	0.1%
Robert Dozier missed Two Point Jumper.		4.2	2	69.8%	30.2%	0.1%
Darnell Jackson Defensive Rebound.		4.2	2	69.8%	30.2%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur made Two Point Dunk Shot.	3.7	4	78.7%	21.3%	8.9%
Antonio Anderson missed Three Point Jumper.	3.2	4	79.4%	20.6%	0.7%
Darnell Jackson Defensive Rebound.		3.2	4	79.4%	20.6%	0.0%
Darnell Jackson made Two Point Layup. 		2.6	6	89.9%	10.1%	10.5%
Memphis Full Timeout.				2.5	6	90.4%	9.6%	0.5%
Foul on Brandon Rush				2.4	6	90.7%	9.3%	0.3%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Free Throw.		2.4	5	86.3%	13.7%	4.5%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Free Throw.		2.4	4	81.3%	18.7%	4.9%
Mario Chalmers missed Three Point Jumper.	1.8	4	83.5%	16.5%	2.2%
Memphis Defensive Rebound.			1.8	4	83.5%	16.5%	0.0%
Derrick Rose missed Three Point Jumper.		1.7	4	84.4%	15.6%	0.8%
Antonio Anderson Offensive Rebound.		1.7	4	84.4%	15.6%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Three Point Jumper.1.4	4	86.3%	13.7%	1.9%
Darnell Jackson Defensive Rebound.		1.4	4	86.3%	13.7%	0.0%
Brandon Rush missed Two Point Layup.		1.2	4	87.4%	12.6%	1.2%
Brandon Rush Offensive Rebound.			1.2	4	87.4%	12.6%	0.0%
Brandon Rush made Two Point Layup.		1.2	6	96.8%	3.2%	9.4%
Chris Douglas-Roberts made Three Point Jumper. 	1.0	3	83.0%	17.0%	13.8%
Memphis 30 Second Timeout.			0.9	3	83.6%	16.4%	0.5%
Foul on Chris Douglas-Roberts			0.8	3	85.9%	14.1%	2.4%
Mario Chalmers made Free Throw.			0.8	4	92.4%	7.6%	6.5%
Mario Chalmers made Free Throw.			0.8	5	96.8%	3.2%	4.4%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Two Point Layup.	0.6	5	98.1%	1.9%	1.4%
Darrell Arthur Defensive Rebound.		0.6	5	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Three Point Jumper.0.5	5	99.2%	0.8%	1.1%
Sherron Collins Defensive Rebound.		0.5	5	99.2%	0.8%	0.0%
Foul on Antonio Anderson			0.3	5	99.9%	0.1%	0.7%
Sherron Collins made Free Throw.		0.3	6	100.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Sherron Collins made Free Throw.		0.3	7	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Derrick Rose missed Three Point Jumper.		0.3	7	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Darrell Arthur Defensive Rebound.		0.3	7	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
End Game					0.0	7	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
Bobbyjim45Draft Pick
599 days ago
Score 2+-
Nice work, Davis. So you're saying Kansas basically came back from the dead?
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
599 days ago
Score 3+-
Kansas was essentially dead twice in the final 2-1/2 minutes of regulation (Memphis had 97.1% & 98.3% WProb at two points during that span). Chalmers' shot defied Win Probability, though -- he added an astonishing 60.0% WP with one play. What a great game.
Permalink
RogersPollVarsity
599 days ago
Score 2+-
Memphis, 98.3% chance of winning with 5.2 seconds remaining. Why in the world did the Tigers not commit the intentional foul? With all due respect to Kansas, the best team in the country threw away the national championship.
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
599 days ago
Score 2+-
Hey, I'm not complaining -- Kansas just made me a lot of money in my bracket pool! However, I made the following pact last night: "If you guys win, I'll be a Kansas fan for life." So now I have to head over to their Fan Network and sign up... It was totally worth it, though.
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
599 days ago
Score 2+-
Theoretical Internet Money?
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
599 days ago
Score 1+-
You know what they say -- Mo' Theoretical Internet Money, Mo' Problems...
Permalink
The oldest manVarsity
598 days ago
Score 1+-
The only comment to be made on the whole game is choke choke choke....both players and coach did just that..some say how do you lost a 12 point lead with2:19 left and 3 points with 3.5 left and don't foul before a shot came be taken. Missed freethrows and poor final minute coaching sums it all up. Calipari got on the talk shows the week before and made a statement that he wasn't worried about missed freethrows but guess what that is one of the reasons, maybe the biggest, that they lost the game. They made the freethrows again UCLA on Saturday and played fairly well under control but on Monday it was back to their style of play. As it has been said before you win by the sword you die by the sword and that sword was lack of making freethrows and a very low basketball IQ under a pressure cooker situation. The question was been asked many times since the game, Did Kansas win the game so much as Memphis lost it? The missed freethrow by Rose only allowed Kansas to get the ball back and score the trying basket to go into overtime. What happened to the genius of Coach Calipari in these last 3.5 seconds and why didn't he call a timeout or why didn't the players foul before the trying shot could be taken. You foul before and they only score 2 points and you have the ball with a one point lead. That would have forced Kansas to call a timeout which would have allowed you to plan a inbound pass play to get the ball into someone's hand that would have forced Kansas to foul and even if your player misses the freethrows the ball is still on the opposite end of the court with only less than a second on the clock. To me the NCAA tournment is the greatest sporting event in the world today. It isn't perfect but it allows for some many upsets or things to happen to the final that other sports don't have. March Madness will never be fair to all the schools until all the schools are allowed to play in the event, which means you will have to have all 128 NCAA teams in the tournment. That will only add one more game to the 65 team event and even then you will have situations in game conditions that may equal or pass what we had last Monday with Kansas and Memphis State. Mistakes, bad calls, miss freethrows , wrong plays, poor coaching and anything else you can think of. But the bottomline on this years NCAA Championship was the last 3.5 seconds of regulation and the question of why this did or didn't occur. To foul or not to foul and missed freethrows that if not missed would have put the game out of reach for one team and that team is the team and finally won. Couldda, wouldda, shouldda.
Permalink | Reply
Anonymous Fanatic #1
507 days ago
Score 0+-
does anyone know where i can buy a poster of this awesome picture? ive been looking everywhere!
Permalink | Reply
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Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User Davis21wylie | April 8, 2008 | April 2008 | NCAA Basketball Opinions | Spring Silliness Opinions | March Madness Opinions | College Basketball Opinions | Kansas Jayhawks Opinions | Mario Chalmers Opinions | Sherron Collins Opinions | Derrick Rose Opinions | Memphis Tigers Opinions | John Calipari Opinions | Bill Self Opinions

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