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Week 3 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com August 13th, 2008 We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.

  Game of the Week: #1 Ohio State 27 @ #5 USC 16 If the New England vs. Indianapolis game last season was Super Bowl XLI.5, is this game BCS Championship.5? Or is it the Grandmommy of Them All? No matter what name sticks, this non-conference showdown will be one of the most anticipated regular season games ever. Two top 5 teams in our pre-season Power Rankings square off in a game that means everything to the perception and direction of the program of the visiting team and its conference. If Ohio State wins, it could erase many of the doubts surrounding its last two championship game performances as it eases into this year's championship. If the Buckeyes lose, then Ohio State cannot truly be considered an elite team and the Big Ten looks like a weak BCS conference. We say they win - convincingly. In the simulated game, Ohio State wins 87% of the time, by an average score of 27-16. Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 3.

| Matchup | Home Win% | Avg Score |


Chattanooga @ Florida State| 95 | 4-41 |


NC St. @ Clemson| 95 | 8-36 |  

Montana State @ Minn.| 95 | 7-41 |  

Southern Illinois @ Northwestern| 95 | 6-37 |  

Missouri State @ Oklahoma State| 95 | 6-48 |


Charleston Southern @ Miami (OH)| 95 | 4-39 |  

North Dakota State @ Wyoming| 95 | 4-39 |  

North Texas @ LSU| 95 | 5-43 |  

Samford @ Mississippi| 95 | 4-36 |  

Western Kentucky @ Alabama| 95 | 8-36 |  

Alabama A&M @ LA-Monroe| 95 | 5-33 |  

Alcorn State @ Troy| 95 | 6-30 |  

Delaware State @ Kent St.| 95 | 6-36 |  

Stanford @ TCU| 95 | 8-32 |  

UNLV @ Arizona St.| 95 | 15-34 |  

UAB @ Tennessee| 95 | 11-35 |  

LA-Laf @ Illinois| 95 | 12-38 |  

Iowa State @ Iowa| 93.4 | 7-31 |  

Mid Tenn @ Kentucky| 91.8 | 8-31 |  

SMU @ Texas Tech| 88.5 | 20-33 |  

Bowling Green @ Boise State| 86.9 | 15-37 |  

GA Tech @ Virginia Tech| 85.2 | 12-29 |  

New Mexico State @ Nebraska| 85.2 | 18-34 |  

Arkansas @ Texas| 83.6 | 22-33 |  

Nevada @ Missouri| 83.6 | 32-40 |  

San Diego State @ San Jose State| 73.8 | 12-22 |  

Virginia @ Connecticut| 72.1 | 10-24 |  

Air Force @ Houston| 67.2 | 24-34 |  

Memphis @ Marshall| 60.7 | 21-28 |  

Hawaii @ Oregon State| 60.7 | 16-21 |  

UCLA @ Brigham Young| 59 | 22-32 |  

Oregon @ Purdue| 54.1 | 23-28 |  

Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State| 52.5 | 26-31 |  

California @ Maryland| 47.5 | 32-33 |


Washington St. @ Baylor| 44.3 | 25-25 |  

Rice @ Vanderbilt| 42.6 | 23-22 |  

North Carolina @ Rutgers| 41 | 28-27 |  

Temple @ Buffalo| 41 | 25-23 |


Toledo @ E. Michigan| 41 | 28-24 |  

Navy @ Duke| 39.3 | 26-23 |  

C. Michigan @ Ohio| 37.7 | 32-27 |  

Wisconsin @ Fresno State| 36.1 | 33-29 |  

Kansas @ South Florida| 34.4 | 36-34 |  

Arizona @ New Mexico| 34.4 | 24-21 |  

S. Miss @ Arkansas St.| 34.4 | 29-22 |  

Michigan @ Notre Dame| 26.2 | 26-21 |  

W. Michigan @ Idaho| 23 | 28-21 |


Ball State @ Akron| 21.3 | 31-21 |  

Auburn @ Mississippi State| 14.8 | 17-10 |  

Ohio State @ USC| 13.1 | 27-16 |  

East Carolina @ Tulane| 6.6 | 34-18 |  

Penn State @ Syracuse| 5 | 36-18 |


Oklahoma @ Washington| 5 | 38-25 |  

Georgia @ S. Carolina| 5 | 35-10 |  

Utah @ Utah State| 5 | 37-8 |

 

  Updated FBS Standings through Week 3  

| Conference | Team | Abs Record | Exp Record |  

Atlantic Coast| Clemson | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Atlantic Coast| Virginia Tech | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Atlantic Coast| Boston College | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Atlantic Coast| Florida State | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Atlantic Coast| North Carolina | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Atlantic Coast| WF | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Atlantic Coast| Duke | 1 - 2 | 2 - 1 |  

Atlantic Coast| Maryland | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Atlantic Coast| Miami (FL) | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Atlantic Coast| GA Tech | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Atlantic Coast| NC St. | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Atlantic Coast| Virginia | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Big East| Louisville | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |


Big East| Pittsburgh | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Big East| W. Virginia | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Big East| Connecticut | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Big East| South Florida | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Big East| Cincinnati | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Big East| Rutgers | 0 - 2 | 1 - 1 |


Big East| Syracuse | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Big Ten| Iowa | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Big Ten| Ohio State | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |


Big Ten| Penn State | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Big Ten| Wisconsin | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Big Ten| Indiana | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Big Ten| Purdue | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Big Ten| Illinois | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Big Ten| Michigan State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Big Ten| Michigan | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Big Ten| Minn. | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Big Ten| Northwestern | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Big Twelve| Kansas | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Big Twelve| Nebraska | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Big Twelve| Oklahoma | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Big Twelve| Texas Tech | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Big Twelve| Texas | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Big Twelve| Colorado | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Big Twelve| Kansas State | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Big Twelve| Missouri | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Big Twelve| Oklahoma State | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Big Twelve| Texas A&M | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Big Twelve| Baylor | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Big Twelve| Iowa State | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Conference USA| Tulsa | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Conference USA| Houston | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |


Conference USA| Marshall | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Conference USA| Rice | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Conference USA| S. Miss | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Conference USA| SMU | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Conference USA| UCF | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Conference USA| East Carolina | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Conference USA| Memphis | 0 - 3 | 1 - 2 |  

Conference USA| Tulane | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |  

Conference USA| UAB | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |  

Conference USA| UTEP | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |


Independents (FBS)| Navy | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Independents (FBS)| Army | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Independents (FBS)| Notre Dame | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Independents (FBS)| Western Kentucky | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Mid-American| Ball State | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Mid-American| C. Michigan | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Mid-American| Kent St. | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Mid-American| Miami (OH) | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Mid-American| Temple | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Mid-American| W. Michigan | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Mid-American| Toledo | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Mid-American| Akron | 0 - 3 | 1 - 2 |  

Mid-American| Bowling Green | 0 - 3 | 1 - 2 |  

Mid-American| Buffalo | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Mid-American| E. Michigan | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Mid-American| Ohio | 0 - 3 | 1 - 2 |  

Mid-American| Northern Illinois | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |  

Mountain West| TCU | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Mountain West| Air Force | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |


Mountain West| Brigham Young | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Mountain West| Utah | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Mountain West| Wyoming | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Mountain West| Colorado St. | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Mountain West| New Mexico | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Mountain West| San Diego State | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Mountain West| UNLV | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Pacific-10| Arizona St. | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Pacific-10| Arizona | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Pacific-10| California | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |  

Pacific-10| Oregon State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Pacific-10| Oregon | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Pacific-10| UCLA | 0 - 2 | 1 - 1 |  

Pacific-10| USC | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Pacific-10| Washington St. | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Pacific-10| Stanford | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |  

Pacific-10| Washington | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |  

Southeastern| Auburn | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |


Southeastern| Georgia | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Southeastern| LSU | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |  

Southeastern| Florida | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Southeastern| Tennessee | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Southeastern| Alabama | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |


Southeastern| Arkansas | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Southeastern| Kentucky | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Southeastern| Mississippi State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Southeastern| Mississippi | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Southeastern| S. Carolina | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Southeastern| Vanderbilt | 0 - 3 | 1 - 2 |  

Sun Belt| Arkansas St. | 1 - 2 | 2 - 1 |  

Sun Belt| Florida Atlantic | 1 - 2 | 2 - 1 |


Sun Belt| LA-Monroe | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Sun Belt| Mid Tenn | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Sun Belt| Troy | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Sun Belt| Fla. Int. | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |


Sun Belt| LA-Laf | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |  

Sun Belt| North Texas | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |  

Western Athletic| Boise State | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 |  

Western Athletic| San Jose State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |  

Western Athletic| Fresno State | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Western Athletic| New Mexico State | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |  

Western Athletic| Hawaii | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Western Athletic| Idaho | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Western Athletic| Nevada | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |  

Western Athletic| Louisiana Tech | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 |  

Western Athletic| Utah State | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |

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