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Sj-hypocycloid
Mike Frangione has engaged himself in the noble calling of sportswriting over the years (1991-1997, and again in 2007), enjoying two stints covering (stringing) High School sports for my local newspaper in South Jersey. That was a great learning experience and also a great deal of fun.

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Some Old School Reflections on Joe Mauer's .400 Chase

by Sj-hypocycloid
created July 17, 2009, last edited July 23, 2009
18
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What do Rod Carew, George Brett, Tony Gwynn and Joe Mauer Have in Common?

Doesn't seem like anything, does it? All four have five letters in their last names. Three of four are American Leaguers. And four out of five dentists would recommend them as your team's leadoff hitter.

No, up until Mauer went 0-for-9 in his last at-bats before the All-Star break, lowering his average from .388 to .373, they all had the real possibility of being the first player since the great Ted Williams to hit .400.

I think this is one of those baseball achievements that will never happen again, and I have had lots of thoughts on this over the years, some of them rational, some of them lucid.

Rod Carew

I'm a little too young to really remember Rod Carew's attempt to hit .400. I mostly remember it from reading about it on baseball cards and in the Scholastic Baseball All-Star books I would get in school.

I wonder if any others on AGM did this? In school, they'd give you this form to fill out that offered all sorts of books. I'd always go for the Dynamite Magazines, any maze or puzzle book and any baseball or football book. Between these books, my baseball cards and Baseball Digest I thought knew Carew's 1977 season inside and out.


Rod Carew's 1977 Topps Baseball Card.
Rod Carew's 1977 Topps Baseball Card.


All-Pro Baseball Stars 1978 - An excellent baseball reference in the pre-internet era
All-Pro Baseball Stars 1978 - An excellent baseball reference in the pre-internet era
Player Year G   PA  AB  R   H   2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO  BA 
Carew  1977 155 694 616 128 239 38 16 14 100 23 13 69 55 .388 

Here's some stuff I didn't know - It's amazing. Carew started 'slow', finishing April at .356 and May at .365. Not that these are not great batting averages, but they don't really hint that someone was flirting with .400.

In fact, he didn't even reach .400 until June 26th, when he went 4-for-5 against the White Sox to push his average from .396 to .403. Then he moved up to his highest average of .411 on June 29th, maintained that for one more day, then staying on the plus side of .400 until gradually fading back below, to .398 on July 11th.

He wouldn't see .400 again that season, and in fact, dipped to .374 on August 25th. But then he rallied, raising his average steadily until he settled on .388 with a 3-for-4 performance on the final day of the season.

George Brett

As a kid, I always took it away from Brett, because in my mind, he didn't have as 'complete' a season as Carew. To me, Brett's .390 wasn't as legitimate as Carew's .388. I mean - 239 hits to 175 hits? 616 At bats to 449 at bats? Does 449 at bats even qualify you for a batting title? I believe that 500 plate appearances does...

George Brett's 1980 Topps Baseball Card
George Brett's 1980 Topps Baseball Card
George Brett's page inside the 1981 All-Pro Baseball Stars book.
George Brett's page inside the 1981 All-Pro Baseball Stars book.
Player Year G   PA  AB  R  H   2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO  BA 
Brett  1980 117 515 449 87 175 33 9  24 118 15 6  58 22  .390 

But I came to realize that Brett's .390 was a lot more legitimate than I'd given him credit for. For one thing, he triumphed over 'roids (hemorrhoids, of course. Yes, I am totally juvenile) to have this great achievement, and also, I saw the numbers of Williams' incredible 1941 season:

Player   Year G   PA  AB  R   H   2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB  SO  BA 
Williams 1941 143 606 456 135 185 33 3  37 120 2  4  147 27  .406 

But what I didn't notice until now is the amazing number of walks Williams had. I zeroed in on the hits - 185 to 175 - clearly, I had it wrong about the legitimacy of Brett's .390. Now that I see the walks, I think maybe I was right... :-)

Like Carew, George Brett's 1980 season didn't start particularly well. He didn't hit .300 until achieving a .301 batting average on May 31st. Then he played in only 9 games in June, but was able to raise his average to a more George Brett like .337 before missing time from June 10th to July 10th.

During July, he steadily increased his average (with some dips as well), ending the month strong with a fantastic 8-for-10 hitting show against the Red Sox that pushed his average up to .390, 59 points higher than the .341 he was hitting after going 2-for-2 upon his July 10 return to the lineup.

After dipping a bit in early August, Brett again started to increase his average, until he hit .394 after goin 3-for-4 against Toronto on August 16th. The next day, a 4-for-4 performance pushed him above .400 for the first time that season, as his average settled in at .401.

He topped out at .406 four days later, then saw a decline, and his average slipped to .399. But not for long, as four days later, on August 26th, he'd reach his season high, .407. This time he managed to stay above .400 for nine more games, and then re-entered the sub-.400 realm. He'd hit .400 one more time on September 19th, and then that was it for the .400 chase. But not a bad run at all - having a .400 average as late as September 19 (with 13 games remaining in the season) is awesome.

Tony Gwynn

Then along comes Tony Gwynn, who, along with Wade Boggs, had pretty much set the standard for batting titles in the 1980s,  winning four titles in the 80s and four more (four consecutive) in the 90s.

Player Year G   PA   AB R  H   2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO  BA 
Gwynn  1994 110 475 419 79 165 35 1  12 64  5  0  48 19  .394 

If my pre-teen self had seen this, it would have been 'not legit' all over again, baseball strike be damned.

Unlike Carew and Brett, Gwynn started strong, fashoning a .395 average by the end of April. It's hard to say whether or not Gwynn's foray into .400 was legitimate. It happened so early in the season - .402 on May 2nd, which was 33 hits in 82 at-bats. I'm thinking this is not enough of a season to say that a batter truly flirted with .400.

His last dip into the .400 waters came on May 15th, when he was batting .408 - 49-for-120. I am also noticing the wild fluctuation in his average at this time - .419 the day before, .398 the day after - based on this, I think this is more indicative of the kind of ups and downs seen in the early parts of a season.

That said, I am hardly downplaying Gwynn's spectacular batting prowess. He dodged, dipped, ducked, dived and dodged between .376 and .394 for the remainder of the season. It's amazing to have that type of consistency from a .294 hitter, let alone someone who is on the verge of .400.

Unfortunately, the big question when it comes to Tony Gwynn will remain unanswered forever: could he have hit .400 if the 1994 strike hadn't ended the season two months early? While I think that Gwynn was, perhaps, the best pure hitter of the 90s, I don't think he would have hit .400 for the season. No reason here, just what I think.

And then again, perhaps he could have. If I consider that Brett didn't top .400 until mid-August and Carew didn't get to .400 until June and had his last .400 day in mid-July, maybe. Sadly, it's all left to speculation now. I will say that if I thought anyone could have hit .400 at that time, Tony Gwynn would have been the guy on whom I'd have put my money.

Joe Mauer

Like Brett, Mauer has missed a significant amount of time in the season in which he chased/is chasing .400. He missed all of April (22 games), and a few other games here and there. He did finish May strongly, attaining a .414 batting average on the strength of a 41-for-99 performance.

Player Year G  PA  AB  R  H  2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA 
Mauer  2009 64 282 241 49 90 13 1  15 49  1  1  35 35  .373 

He stayed above .400 for a good part of June, holding on with a .407 average as of June 21st. But then his average saw a steady decline until he ended June with a .383 average. Not bad at all, but he's going the wrong way where .400 is concerned. As for July, he pushed his average back into the .390s, only to see that average dip, before bottoming out at .373 after an 0-for-9 drought in his last two games before the All-Star game.

Mauer still has 73 games to ply his trade, and I, for one, will be interested to see how he does coming away from the All-Star game. Even if he doesn't hit .400 this year, the fact that he was as close as he was, and the fact that he was hitting over .400 well into June is an endorsement of his belonging in the conversation with the four other great hitters mentioned earlier.

Again - as with Gwynn - the question: Can he hit .400? And again - as with Gwynn - I don't feel that he can. I'd love to see someone hit for that lofty an average again. And Mauer has already spent some quality time north of the Williams line this season. But I'll be watching the box scores to see how he does. And I'll be rooting for him.

A Comparison of the seasons

Player    Year G    PA   AB   R    H    2B  3B HR RBI  SB  CS BB  SO   BA 
                                
Williams  1941 143  606  456  135  185  33  3  37 120  2   4  147 27  .406 
                                
Carew     1977 155  694  616  128  239  38  16 14 100  23  13 69  55  .388 
Brett     1980 117  515  449  87   175  33  9  24 118  15  6  58  22  .390 
Gwynn     1994 110  475  419  79   165  35  1  12 64   5   0  48  19  .394 
                                
Mauer     2009 64   282  241  49   90   13  1  15 49   1   1  35  35  .373 

Resources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/, of course.

Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
141 days ago
Score 1+-
Damnit. The formatting looked much better before I submitted this. I don't feel like fixing it now. I'll do it later...
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
141 days ago
Score 4+-
Nice article. But John Olerud is not happy with you.
Permalink | Reply
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
141 days ago
Score 0+-
Olerud would have been a good one, but he finished at .363. And then folks could argue that Joe Torre (.363 in 1971, Wade Boggs) and many others could have been included.


Olerud's 1993 season is pretty amazing - he batted over .400 for a good part of May, June and July, but steadily dropped through August and September. A great year, but the end result caused me to leave him out. Sorry, Mr. Olerud...
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
141 days ago
Score 1+-
and the fact that he worse that stupid helmet in the field...

wussy...

stacy1.jpg
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
141 days ago
Score 2+-
i need a new keyboard..."he wore that stupid helmet in the field..."
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
141 days ago
Score 1+-
Didn't Chipper Jones even have a crazy high AVG at the break last year?
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
141 days ago
Score 4+-
That's right, yes, it's ironic, I work for Sports-Reference and I'm too lazy to actually go check what Chipper's 1st-half batting average in 2008 was...
Permalink
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
141 days ago
Score 3+-
Yep. Chipper was hitting .400 as of June 18, and finished June at .394. Again, similar to Olerud, the .364 finish is what led me to leave Chipper out.
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
141 days ago
Score 0+-
Tony Batista (I think) with the Blue Jays did something similar
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
140 days ago
Score 0+-
I only mentioned him because he's John Olerud and you're not, bitches!

Olerud "worse that stupid helmet in the field..." JuTMSY4- I guess you never wondered why he worse a stupid helmet for that long.

You probably think Kareem's goggles were dorky, too; eh?
Permalink
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
141 days ago
Score 4+-
One thing I forgot to mention here is that this article was kind of inspired by Mike Greenberg. He has a great tendency to assign lists to things.


My favorite (and most irritating) example is for that of Favre's place among the great quarterbacks. He always lists out the obvious names: Montana, Elway, Marino and tries to get the other commentators (victims) on that day's show to help him assign a spot for Favre. It's stupid. But what always galls me is that he never mentions Bradshaw. The guy won 4 Super Bowls - and it wasn't that long ago, for christ's sake. He should at least be in that discussion. Not that it can really be answered, but...


Anyway, "Greenie" did it again when talking about Mauer. He mentioned Gwynn, Brett and Williams and didn't mention Carew!!! I'm sure I just overreacted, but it ticked me off that he hosts a damn sports show and can't come up with obvious names and numbers for his little 'lists' that I can.


All right, rant over. Sorry about that...
Permalink | Reply
JuTMSY4Legend
141 days ago
Score 2+-
The answer is Bradshaw is 19 and Favre is 9...
Permalink
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
141 days ago
Score 2+-
While I think that Davis did a fantastic job on that (certainly much better than any discussion I ever heard on Mike & Mike), I do think Bradshaw should be a bit higher. But Davis gives excellent arguments and I will not raise any fuss beyond my previous sentence. I wish Greenie would read that article.


And, yes, Greenie does also mention Brady in these conversations. I think Brady is a very very good quarterback, but I think it's a bit premature to be talking about his placement among Marino, Elway, Montana and Favre. And I am limiting my grousing to these names because these are the ones that come up on the M&M show. Occasionally, Greenie will remember Unitas, but not every time.
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
141 days ago
Score 2+-
If it makes you feel better, I thought he belonged in the pantheon in 2006...
Permalink
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
141 days ago
Score 0+-
Okay, it does make me feel better. :-) And I totally agree with the names you selected for your pantheon. Including Bart Starr is the right call, and a call that many QB evaluations fail to include. Five championships? You gotta include Starr.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
140 days ago
Score 2+-
Isn't it a little "Sj-hypocritical" to artificially boost Bradshaw and Starr into The Pantheon solely on the basis of their rings (when their individual stats don't really warrant it) and exclude Brady at the same time (and where's Aikman, btw)? Either you give disproportionate credit for championships won or not, but you can't pick and choose who you give that credit to, you know?
Permalink
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
140 days ago
Score 0+-
I wasn't looking to be totally fair. I was just noting that Bradshaw should not be left out of the list. There's only so much room if you're going to go with six names. And who would I remove if I put Brady in? Starr, Unitas and Bradshaw belong as much as Marino, Elway and Montana. And Brady. And Aikman. And Staubach. And Favre. And Moon. And Griese. The list goes on.


And Unitas, Starr and (for part of the time) Bradshaw played in a run-dominated era - and an era of less games per season. I think it would be similarly Sj-hypocritical to hold low passing numbers against them and elevate other QBs who were able to get more passing yards and TD passes due to changes in the way the game is played.


Generally speaking, I am not a fan of Top lists like that, no matter how compelling the arguments are. My gripe was really with M&M and their ability to omit certain names that clearly belong in the lists they are talking about. In this case, names like Bradshaw and Carew.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
140 days ago
Score 0+-
If you'll recall, though, adjusting for changes in passing styles/rules by era was precisely what my system did. And Unitas' numbers were terrific after the adjustment, as good as anyone who ever played. So were Len Dawson's and Sonny Jurgensen's, btw. But Bradshaw's and Starr's and Aikman's and Brady's (keep in mind this was before 2007) weren't. So if anything, you should be trumpeting Dawson and Jurgensen as being underrated by the mainstream media. Bradshaw/Starr always get overrated because of the rings IMO, and that's okay if you're really obsessed with that at the exclusion of everything else, but it's weird to look at Brady differently -- all have the rings, and none had the stats going into 2007 (and after that, Brady had the stats and the rings). So at least balance it between the two categories if that's what you're into -- if you have the stats but not the titles, you probably made some mistakes in big games; if you have the titles but not the stats, your teammates were more responsible for the wins than you were. Pantheon Guys probably need to shine in both categories. Montana had both, for instance, as did Unitas (if you count pre-Super Bowl titles). Those two are the only no-doubt Pantheon guys. If Manning wins another ring or Brady posts another monster stat season, they'll put themselves near that group, though.
Permalink
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
140 days ago
Score 0+-
So I'm a little sensitive about a Bradshaw omission and you're a little sensitive about a Brady omission. Since you did the all that work evaluating the QBs, I'll take your word for it as to their overall historical placement. Again, I would take your estimation of the QBs over anything I've heard on Mike & Mike.


Just for the record, now that you've reminded me of Brady's statistical excellence, I change my mind about not including him. I guess I'll just remove Elway to make room for Brady. :-)
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
140 days ago
Score 0+-
Making a cameo is worth it when I can dis Tom Brady.

Brady couldn't carry John Elway's jock with a forklift. Alongside Mike Tyson, Don Drysdale and Scottie Pippen and every single NASCAR driver, arguably the most overrated athlete ever.

The Hall of Fame is about individual performance over a long, sustained period of time. The postseason is a team achievement. Brady is no more responsible for the Patriot's championships than the third string right tackle, he is also no more responsible for their failures.

Terry Bradshaw, IMO, is not a HOFer. He is in for the same reason Brady will be. An average to below average player fortunate enough to spend the prime of his career with a dynasty, a team that would have been a dynasty if Pee Wee Herman was their QB.
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
139 days ago
Score 1+-
Now, you're just being "Sj-hyperbolic" (to continue a tired, silly pun) when you say "Brady is no more responsible for the Patriot's championships than the third string right tackle". I know you don't believe that. We know how much Brady is worth now because of the offense's performance with him in 2007 vs. its performance with Matt Cassel (your everyday league-average QB) in 2008 -- literally the same personnel around him, same coaching staff, etc., and the offense declines by 180 points and more than 700 yards (in addition to the team losing 5 more games). That's a pretty huge difference: replacing an average QB with Brady would be worth over 11 points per game! Likewise, I don't believe Bradshaw was an "average-to-below-average" QB. I thought both were very overrated going into 2007, but Brady showed what kinds of numbers he could put up with a Manning-style supporting cast around him (and believe me, Manning's 2004 was powered by a similarly strong, if not stronger, group of teammates). So I believe in Brady from a cold, rational P.O.V. now as well -- his stats that season were as good as any QB to ever play the game. So yes, he's certainly been more responsible for the championships than "the third string right tackle"...
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
140 days ago
Score 1+-
I take sabermetric stats with a grain of salt, park factors being one of them. It will be interesting to see how much Target Field will impact Mauer's numbers. Moving from an indoor, covered, artificial turf with a short porch to an outdoor, uncovered, grass field with larger dimensions. I do however feel the new park will have more impact on Justin Morneau's numbers than Mauer's.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
138 days ago
Score 0+-
When you say it like that, it makes me realize "Will the New Park destroy all that is unique, interesting, entertaining, and good about the Minnesota Twins as we know them?"

It's all going to change!!! Waa!


This is sadder than when the Kingdome got imploded!!! Booo hoo hoo - - - sob.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
138 days ago
Score 1+-
I'm a pretty big fan of Brett's 1979 season as well. 20-20-20+ doubles-triples-Home Runs! That's downright Juan Samuel-esque!
Permalink | Reply
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
138 days ago
Score 0+-
Comparing Brett to Juan Samuel? Never thought I'd see the day. Brett's 1975 and 1976 seasons were pretty darn good too. If only Sammy could have batted .300 or better - just once.


Gwynn, Brett and Carew all had plenty of monster seasons - this time I just focused on their highest averages. I could probably write another article about their overall season-to-season greatness.
Permalink
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Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User Sj-hypocycloid | July 17, 2009 | July 2009 | Baseball Opinions | MLB Opinions | Chasing .400 Opinions

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