armchairgm
all sports, all you
+ Add Friends
You are not logged-in.
Sign Up - Log In
Main Page
Sports
Write
Articles
Hot Links
Images
Meet People
Fun
Explore
MLB - NFL - NBA - NHL - College Basketball - College Football - Soccer - Nascar - Other
Article - Locker Room Discussion
All Articles - New Articles - Today's Articles
Submit a Link - Approve Links
Picture Game - Ratings - Polls - Pick Game - Quiz Game - Spring Silliness
Random Page - Random Image - Random Fan

About the Authors

Behbigben15
The name's Ben Heck. I am 17-years old, and about to start my senior year at Queen Anne's County High School in Centreville, MD. I stand at 5 feet 8 inches and weigh 140 pounds. I am a Marylander, but I have been a Pittsburgh Steelers fan my entire life (my dad is from Pittsburgh).

I love writing, and talking about sports here on AGM, and I plan on going to a University to major in communications and/or sports management.

2007 AGM Most Improved Writer

2008 AGM Fantasy Football Champion

2008-09 AGM Fantasy Basketball Third Place Finisher

2009 AGM Fantasy Baseball Sixth Place Finisher (out of 14 teams)

Also check out my work at http://www.badnewsbloggers.com//

More By Behbigben15

Manning Brothers Continue League Domination: A Review Of NFL Week 5
8 votes, 2 comments
The NFL is Finally Back! (BBB15's Last Minute 2009 Preview)
10 votes, 3 comments
A Closer Look: The 2009 NFL HOF Class
11 votes, 10 comments
View All
Romiezzo
My name's Romi Ezzo and I'm a huge sports fan. My favorite thing in the world is baseball, and hopefully, I can become someone involved in sports, whether it's being a sports writer, an analyst, a commentator, or maybe just sticking around here at ArmchairGM editing stuff, and commenting every once in a while. Playing sports is what gets me going, and when I feel like I don't have the energy to actually play baseball, basketball, soccer (football), or American football, I'll just play some MVP, NBA Live, Winning 11, or Madden. My favorite baseball player is Derek Jeter (who I idolized growing up... yes, even though I'm a Red Sox fan), with Dustin Pedroia, Ichiro, and Jacoby Ellsbury in a close 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. I cannot choose a favorite basketball player (it seems like I have a different one each season). I like Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, Hedo Turkoglu, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, and Dwyane Wade... just to name a few. I'm a New England fan, which means that I love the Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics, and Bruins. I'm glad that I can talk sports to a bunch of people that have the same in common that I do.

Keep Armchair GM alive! :)

More By Romiezzo

Detroit Tigers: Should We Be Surprised?
17 votes, 22 comments
Home Runs of April 12, 2009
9 votes, 9 comments
Home Runs of April 11, 2009
6 votes, 10 comments
View All

Other recent voters

If you like the article, vote for it.
Edit
Page history Discuss pageWhat links here

Rom-Dawg and Big Ben Presents: Super Bowl XLIII

by Behbigben15 and Romiezzo
created January 29, 2009, last edited February 10, 2009
18
Vote

Super Bowl Sunday is just three days away. Can you believe that? Now that we have had almost two whole weeks to soak in the fact that the Arizona Cardinals are, in fact, in Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa Bay, Florida, I believe it's time to get down to business.  That's where Romi Ezzo and I (Ben Heck) come in. We are going to tell--yes, tell you, not predict--who will win this unlikely matchup.

NOTE: This is a new thing we are trying out. Romi and I would like to bring you a duo article at least once a week. We will choose one topic to discuss and pretty much give our own response. We believe this will give us a chance to voice our own opinions and spark debate all on one page.  Enjoy!

Super Bowl: Pittsburgh Steelers v.s. Arizona Cardinals

Tampa Bay, FL @ 6:28 PM ET

Romi:

The Pittsburgh Steelers versus the Arizona Cardinals: who would've came up with that matchup as their pre-postseason Super Bowl prediction? Two quarterbacks who are good under pressure in Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner are going to fight it out in a true "Offense versus Defense" contest (there is also a hair battle, but let's not get into that. This is the Super Bowl (also known as the "championship game" of the NFL). I am going to refer to Michael Jordan's famous quote for my prediction about this game: "Offense wins games; defense wins championships". In other words, my guess is the Steelers are going to win their 6th championship (a new record). Ben Roethlisberger will throw for one touchdown and possibly one interception, but he has played his heart out this year... both in the season and in the playoffs. Right now, I see a match that will consist of a team with a good quarterback (one of the toughest in football today), along with THE best defenses in the NFL (1st in yards allowed/game: 237.2; 1st in points/game: 13.9; 1st in passing yards/game 156.9; 2nd in rushing yards/game: 80.3).

Another main reason why I think the Steelers could win the big one this weeks is because of the fact that Big Ben can distribute the ball a lot better a lot more efficiently than Kurt Warner. What I mean by that is that Pittsburgh is going to expect that Larry Fitzgerald and possibly Anquan Boldin are going to have a good game if they do not guard him closely. With that being said, remember that Pittsburgh has the best defensive numbers in the NFL when it comes to passing yards allowed. So in order for the Cardinals to win this game, Kurt Warner must not underestimate the Steelers' defense and he should bring his A game. He should also get Edgerrin James and/or Tim Hightower to get a couple more rushing yards and get a few more chances to run with the ball than they're used to getting. They have to make big plays by getting first downs quickly without turning the ball over, which is going to be pretty difficult. On defense, we should expect them to stop the Willie Parker and the Steelers' running game and force Big Ben to beat them with the passing game.

The only way I could see the Cardinals winning the Vince Lombardi trophy is if everything goes their way. If the Redbirds do not turn over the ball once (which would probably mean that Larry Fitzgerald will have an amazing game) and Hines Ward doesn't have a good game due to his injury, as well as doing well at stopping Willie Parker, and score 30 points like they have in every, single one of their playoff games (30 against the Atlanta Falcons, 33 against the Carolina Panthers, and 32 against the Philadelphia Eagles). However, the Cardinals have never relied on their defense to win their football games this season as well as in the postseason. Can they defy the odds and win the big one this year? I don't know. They have yet to face what I think is their biggest challenge in the playoffs this year. Hopefully, they'll prove me wrong. (Yes, I'm rooting for them to win it; if you know me, you know I'll root for the underdog as long as a Boston team isn't the giant.)

Just a little tip for the Cards: Ben Roethlisberger was the most sacked quarterback on third downs (once for every 5.8 pass attempts) as well as against the blitz (every 6.2 blitz attempts).

Score: 20-13

Pittsburgh vs. Arizona: Roethlisberger vs. Warner, Tomlin vs. Whisenhunt.
Pittsburgh vs. Arizona: Roethlisberger vs. Warner, Tomlin vs. Whisenhunt.

Ben:

For the Cardinals to win this game, Ken Whisenhunt's offensive line will need to give Kurt Warner ample time in the pocket, meaning they will need to pick up Pittsburgh blitz schemes before the snap and get good jumps on the ball. Maybe use the hard count efficiently. There's no way you can try and say Pittsburgh will not bring the pressure, because they surely will. Dick LeBeau most likely hasn't been doing a whole lot of celebrating since the Steelers' 23-14 conference championship victory. The day after the win, LeBeau went back to the drawing board to come up with brand new disguises for his defense. The number one guy Warner will be looking out for is #43 and his long, black hair: Troy Polamalu. Get the ball out quick--which is usually what Warner does--and away from #43, and Kurt's offense has a chance to really put up some points, there's no question.

On defense, Arizona will need to stop the run. If Mike Tomlin decides to stick with classic Pittsburgh football (which is likely to happen), he will run the ball early and often. If Arizona's D doesn't come in ready to stop Fast Willie, they will get run over right off the bat. But, look out for the play-fake, Ben Roethlisberger tends to run that often and efficiently. Arizona will need to get to Big Ben and force turnovers. Obviously, he has gotten sacked a whole lot more than he planned (has been sacked the most times out of any QB in the last three years), but he hasn't turned the ball over so far in his two postseason games this season.

On the other sidelines, Pittsburgh's coaching staff plans on playing classic Steeler football (like I said earlier). LeBeau will bring the pressure, and bring it often. There's no doubt in my mind that they will force a couple turnovers and manage to get to Warner enough to rattle him early on. And that's exactly what they will need to do on defense in order to win this game. Force Warner out of the pocket, and double (maybe even triple) cover Larry Fitzgerald... but don't forget about the other receivers, too. That should be Pitt's game plan while their defense is on the field. Watching Kurt play, it seems defenses do best when he is out of the pocket. He's just not the same QB as Ben Roethlisberger.

On offense, obviously they will run the ball like I said before. The tandem of Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore will eventually wear down this defense. But, the most important thing for Pittsburgh's offense come Sunday? The offensive line. Will they give Big Ben enough time to distribute the ball to his teammates. For Arizona, you want to keep him in the pocket--the exact opposite of Warner. Big Ben seems to come up with big plays once he leaves the pocket. His size works to his advantage, because he can flat-out beat a majority of defenders at their own game with his large frame. Almost every NFL follower has discovered that he holds on to the ball too long, but he is able to move around back there and allow his receivers to get open. No matter how good a defenses pass coverage is, there will eventually be a gap somewhere if Ben is able to hang on to the ball back there. This is Santonio Holmes big chance to shine, especially since Hines Ward likely won't be 100% come game-time.

So, now that I've told you what each team has to accomplish to win the big game, it's time for my actual prediction. With homerism aside, Pittsburgh will win this well-matched up game. Pittsburgh really just has one great task ahead of them; stop Fitzgerald from running all over them. It's obvious Warner will be throwing the ball since he has the best WR in the game (Fitzgerald) on his side, and they are going up against a tough team to run the ball against, this all seems to lead to Arizona throwing the ball 35+ times. Pittsburgh's defense pressures opposing QB's like crazy, and Warner isn't exactly what you would call a mobile QB. This leads me to believe that Pittsburgh will stop Fitzgerald to just 6 catches for 120 yards and a single TD. Considering how Arizona's pass-heavy offense runs, that will not be enough to defeat this team. Sorry all you fans of Cinderella teams--and all 13 of you true Cardinal fans.

Pittsburgh 24, Arizona 14

Any feedback on our first duo article would be nice (positive or negative).  Thanks!


Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
Steel TownDraft Pick
283 days ago
Score 3+-
Big Ben will have more than one touchdown in this game. The Cards gave up 36 passing touchdowns this year to the Steelers 12. Look for Nate Washington or Santonio Holmes to have a huge game while Hines does his usual and picks up first downs. Note: Every single third down pass caught by Hines Ward this year was converted into a first down.
Permalink | Reply
CheezerAll-Star
283 days ago
Score 4+-
Let's take a look at the Playoffs only rather than the entire season. I think we can agree that the Cards have played better over the last month than they did in the regular season. And the Steelers just keep on getting it done regardless of what time period we look at.

Group TDs Int
Cards D 6 8
Warner 8 2
Pitt D 3 4
Big Ben 2 0


The Steelers played two games in which Roethlisberger had 1 TD in each. The trend indicates that Ben will probably have only 1 TD. Especially if the Steeler defense can keep the score down. Roethlisberger will not throw more than he has to.

The Cardinals had three games and did give up more TDs than the Steelers, but they also had more interceptions.

I do not know how I will root in this game. My youngest son is a Steeler fan and I love blue collar football so I'm willing to cheer for the Steelers, but I love the underdog as well and the best stories on are the other side of the ball. I won't know until the game starts.

All I am saying is don't underestimate Adrian Wilson and that Cardinal defense. Rodgers-Cromartie is the real deal.

Also, Ward is playing with a brace so we can't really expect him to perform at the same level, regardless of what he says. I know from personal experience that a knee brace does slow you down and inhibit your lateral movement.
Permalink
Steel TownDraft Pick
283 days ago
Score 2+-
I don't put much credence in this idea that we should throw out a 16 game body of work and focus on a 3 game body of work. When I look at the stats you provide one thing jumps out at me. 5 of those Cardinal INTs were in one game. I would like to think the Steelers have better ball control than that. When thinking about the Steelers poor offensive performance this year keep in mind that they played 7 of the top 10 defenses in the league. Over on Behind the Steel Curtain there is an article looking at how the Steelers perfomed offensively against top ten defenses versus sub-top-10 defenses. Here is what it says:


Opposing teams averaged 20.0 points and 310 yards (division weighted x2) against them. If anyone cares, that’d be the 11th yardage and 10th scoring defense.

We averaged 21.7 points and 312 yards, giving us on average +1.7 (7.9 percent) points and +1.5 (0.5 percent) yards versus the other teams they played. This suggests that our offense is almost exactly average at moving the ball, and I’ll hypothesize that our defense accounts for a lot of the point value over average. I find it odd that our FO offensive DVOA is an identical number (1.7) I hope that’s not their “proprietary formula”.

Now let’s split how we performed against top 10 defenses and everyone else. We played 7 games against top 10 defenses, averaging 16.1 points and 259 yards. The top 10 defenses averaged 17.6 points and 281 for the year. So on average, we were -1.4 (-8.8 percent) points and -21.7 yards (-8.4 percent) from our opponents’ opponents’ offenses. We were above average in 2 of 7 games in both points and yards.

On the flip side, we were +4.2 (16 percent) points and +19.6 (5.6 percent) yards against non-top 10 defenses. We were above average in 7 of 9 games in both points and yards.

This suggests the following: 1) On average, our offense is almost exactly average. 2) Our offense performs worse than most teams would when faced with a good defense and better than most teams would when faced with a bad defense. All teams production should fall off against good defenses, but ours declines more rapidly than usual as opposing defenses get better.

So basically what I am saying is that I think the Steelers O will perform far better than they averaged in the regular season.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
283 days ago
Score 2+-
heh, heh... "We"!! Good stuff!
Permalink
CheezerAll-Star
283 days ago
Score 2+-
And three of the Steeler four interceptions were in one game. Tomato, Tomahto.

Let me rephrase. Rather than disregard the regular season, let's give more credence to performance in more recent weeks. Anyway we look at it, we are subject to the statistical curse of small sample size so it's all speculation anyway. However, I must give more weight to more recent performance. If you exclude variables such as injuries, recent performance is a better indicator of current/future performance than something that took place months ago.

We need DDub to chime with factors such as trends, regression to the mean, and other statistical phenomena I don't begin to understand.

"This suggests the following: 1) On average, our offense is almost exactly average. 2) Our offense performs worse than most teams would when faced with a good defense and better than most teams would when faced with a bad defense. All teams production should fall off against good defenses, but ours declines more rapidly than usual as opposing defenses get better. So basically what I am saying is that I think the Steelers O will perform far better than they averaged in the regular season." So, you're saying that the Cardinals defense is worse than average. I think we need to agree to disagree. The cardinal defense of the regular season was much worse than average and that is especially due to putrid performances against NE, Minn, Philly, and NYG. The playoff Cardinal defense is playing extremely well this post-season. That is a fact that cannot be ignored. It's almost as if the coaching staff took some time off after they clinched the division to keep secrets until the playoffs. That would explain the vanilla sets they ran against the likes of NE and Minnesota. It would not explain the performance against the Giants and Eagles though.

I never said that I felt the Cards would win the game. At the end of the day, I hope for a good game and I just utter a word of caution to the Steeler fans that think this is going to be a blowout. Stranger things have happened.

Aaron Shatz at Football Outsiders says it well when he says, "Here we are again, back in the same situation we've been in twice before. This is our sixth Super Bowl preview, and the third time where the Super Bowl matches two teams with dramatically different regular-season performance. I'm left writing the same conclusion I wrote the first two times. AFC team was clearly better than NFC team all year. Two or three strong postseason performances just don't give us enough sample size to be able to say for sure that NFC team will continue its improved play in the Super Bowl. However, we also can't say we have objective evidence that NFC team hasn't actually improved since the regular season. If NFC team plays like it did during most of the year, this will be a blowout. If NFC team plays like it has over the last couple weeks, this will be close. Nonetheless, AFC team has played better than NFC team even if we only look at the playoffs and ignore the regular season entirely. Even the most optimistic view of NFC team's improvement still leaves AFC team as the slight favorite, yet probability is not a guarantee. If NFC team wins, they will claim that "nobody gave us a chance," but only a total idiot would claim NFC team has absolutely no chance to win this game."
Permalink
Steel TownDraft Pick
283 days ago
Score 1+-
I have tried to express to them to quit using we, but they don't seem to want to listen.
Permalink
CheezerAll-Star
283 days ago
Score 4+-
I like the duo article guys. It's kind of difficult as you both have the same perspective. For future writings, you may want to pick topics you disagree on and discuss them intelligently. Maybe even trying to prove the other person's position.
Permalink | Reply
Steel TownDraft Pick
283 days ago
Score 3+-
That's the only reason I said anything. I just wanted you guys to keep trying this. But, it was hard to start a debate when the two of you agreed on the topic, so I picked one line out of the article and ran with it.
Permalink
Behbigben15All-Star
283 days ago
Score 1+-
Yeah, I realized that too, but it's the Super Bowl! I couldn't pass this one up. We will try to for future articles though, thanks.
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
283 days ago
Score 1+-
Thanks for the feedback, guys. 'Preciate it.

Yeah, Ben and I were pretty passionate about who we thought would win the Superbowl... and we both agreed. Next week, we will (hopefully) get a question that we both disagree on. Or, who knows? Maybe we'll get a couple more in one article for ya...


And thanks for the attempt to start something on the topic, Steel Town. ;)
Permalink
Falcon02520Legend
282 days ago
Score 2+-
How'd I miss this? I'm an idiot, you guys aren't. That's how this thing came to be. And because it came to be, it had to be somehow. How is that somehow? Very nicely tis it. Well done boys, well done...
Permalink | Reply
Add your Comment
ArmchairGM welcomes all comments. If you don't want to be anonymous, Register or Login. It's free
Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User Behbigben15 | Opinions by User Romiezzo | January 29, 2009 | January 2009 | NFL Opinions | Football Opinions | Pittsburgh Steelers Opinions | Arizona Cardinals Opinions | Mike Tomlin Opinions | Ben Roethlisberger Opinions | Kurt Warner Opinions | Troy Polamalu Opinions | Larry Fitzgerald Opinions | Santonio Holmes Opinions | Hines Ward Opinions | Willie Parker Opinions | Mewelde Moore Opinions | Dick LeBeau Opinions | Ken Whisenhunt Opinions | Anquan Boldin Opinions | Edgerrin James Opinions | Tim Hightower Opinions

Don't Miss

Phillies World Series 2009: A Year Later, and They Still Don't Want Us
Sorry, But I'm Not Sorry
2009 NHL Preview
In Which Ricketts Wins World Series
2009 Week 3: Let’s Talk About Your Favorite NFL Team

In the News

The Detroit Red Wings defeated the San Jose Sharks 2-1 ending their winning streak at six.

Take a Poll

Worst 2009 NFL team
Chiefs Lions Cleveland Jacksonville St Louis

New Articles

Bad Flashbacks: An Analsis of USC v ASU
What If Brad Lidge Had Started Game One?
Week 9 Postgame: Trick or Treat?
Dear FIFA, UEFA, & Football Fans... It is time.
Make it Number 27

Retrieved from "http://armchairgm.wikia.com/Article:Rom-Dawg_and_Big_Ben_Presents:_Super_Bowl_XLIII"

This page was last modified 21:56, 29 January 2009. Content is available under the GFDL.

Main Page About Special Pages Help Terms of Use Advertise