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Niteowl049
Baseball fan following baseball since 1955. Have been fortunate enough to have seen Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, Johnny Bench, Roberto Clemente and Dale Murphy play baseball in Kansas City and Houston. Served in Army in Hawaii and Vietnam with 25th Infantry Division.

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Rays-Blue Jays Comparison

by Niteowl049
created May 02, 2008, last edited June 03, 2008
13
Vote

The Tampa Bay Rays are in first place in the AL East with a 3.61 ERA, while the Toronto Blue Jays have a 3.62 mark and are in last place with the two teams second and third in the AL in ERA. The Rays are 7th in batting with a .256 average, while the Blue Jays are 9th with a .251 average. Even though their stats are very close to being the same, the Rays are in first while the Blue Jays are in last place.

Here are some more stats for you guys to look at:
The Rays are ahead in runs 134-119
The Rays are beating the Jays in home runs 29-20.
The Rays have struck out 200 times compared to 148 strikeouts by Blue Jays hitters.
The Rays pitchers have allowed only 5 less runs than the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed only one more run than Rays pitchers.

What I am saying is even though their stats are so similar in a lot of categories, it proves that stats don't take actual game situations into consideration. Baseball is a game that should not judge on stats when it comes to actually winning and losing a game. It doesn't matter how good a player's stats are if they can't come through with a clutch hit in a crucial situation or a pitcher than can't handle pressure of having the bases loaded in the late innings and starts walking batters.

I would like to read the comments of others explaining how two teams can be so close in their stats but one team is in first place and the other is in last place.


Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
CrackajgDraft Pick
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Strength of schedule, injuries and like you said -- clutch performances.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
???


How about the Rays sweeping the Red Sox while the Jays lost 2 of 3?

Clutch, my ass!
Permalink
CrackajgDraft Pick
607 days ago
Score 3+-
It's May. Relax.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 4+-
3 games in May could make a big difference in Sepctober when you're 2 games behind...

I just know that last weekend's sweep was so far under the radar no one noticed but IF the Sox pull out a win this weekend, it'll be the marquee story on SportsCenter...

Of course, another Rays sweep would just be a minor blip, right?


Hey, Red Sox fans - don't relax... start to worry.
Permalink
CrackajgDraft Pick
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Not that I'm trying to take away anything from Tampa Bay, I think their a great team. If they sweep this weekend, then I'll officially be worried.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 2+-
If Kazmir is healthy and effective on Sunday - be worried - even if the Sox sweep the series... The Red Sox WILL have to make some moves before the deadline if they want to be in the race in Sepctober. This team is not going to fall into 96 wins like last season. They're getting older, and the young guys coming through aren't the cornerstones the lemmings of Boston want to think they are...
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 2+-
If the Red Sox are so good, why did they need EIGHT last inning wins already this season???
Permalink
CrackajgDraft Pick
607 days ago
Score 1+-
A win's a win in my book.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 4+-
1) It's May. Relax. The Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 games, the Jays are 2-8 - that should explain most of it. 4.5 games is NOT that big a difference in May.

2) the Jays suck. They have turmoil in the clubhouse and as Shea Hillenbrand would say, the ship is still sinking. Jeez, they even paid Big Hurt to walk away after a slump...

3) the Rays have been without Kazmir, Cliff Floyd and Rocco Baldelli was lost as well. Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar are hurt and Carlos Pena and Akinori Iwamura have been frozen molasses cold. Al Reyes has been a mess and even ordinary bar patrons are getting hits on him (haw, haw)

So me thinks the Rays will still improve!

4) the Rays swept the Jays last week in Orlando

5) If you want the one word answer - BULLPEN!!!

Yes, the Rays have a very good bullpen (which, if they had this bullpen last year, they would have been a .500 club)
Permalink | Reply
Niteowl049AAA-er
607 days ago
Score 0+-
Rays showed me something the way they recovered from being 7-10 on the 18th of April. They have been 9-2 since then. The hot streak started when Sonnanstine accounted for his first win of the three he has won out of the 9 victories. It is still early but the Rays look like the real thing. Who would have figured Scott Dohman would post wins against the Red Sox on consecutive days.I see ESPN has Kazmir as probable starter for Rays on Sunday against the Red Sox. Winning the series in Fenway should turn a lot of non believers into believers.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 4+-
Kaz is starting Sunday. The question is - who gets bumped out of the rotation?


The Rays have problems they've never had before - GOOD problems!! Too many pitchers producing - they already have one more shutout this season than ALL of last season!

And like I said, the bats really haven't gotten in gear yet... The Rays could very well be even better than they have been - and the world is still asleep despite my incessant screaming about them!!!
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Even Falcon has stopped talking about them. ;)
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 3+-
That's because Manny hasn't been around to bail him out
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
607 days ago
Score 0+-
Crackajg made a good point about the schedule. Sometimes when you face a team matters especially if you can catch a good team when they are in a slump.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Ummm... the Jays have had the easier schedule so far. 5 games against Texas and 3 against KC.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
I don't know, but I give alot of credit to the fackin' genius who predicted Andy Sonnanstine was a legitimate pitcher. Now if I can only remember this genius' name now, oh, fack, never mind.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Relax, KD... it's May!!! (He was a legitimate starter 3 out of every 5 starts last season too...)
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Wow, you predicted that a guy whose ERA was inflated by an unlucky .329 BABIP a year ago would have better numbers this year? :)
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Yeah, and based strictly on watching him pitch, as opposed to relying on some bogus stat. Imagine that.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Eh, never mind.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Good idea
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
607 days ago
Score 3+-
I mean, why waste my breath, you know? The close-mindedness and arrogance can be pretty off-putting sometimes.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 0+-
What you preach is bullshit, Davis. Mindnumbing, pointless bullshit. You are in the minority on this, and what I find annoying is you know it, yet you keep trying to sell it.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
607 days ago
Score 4+-
Thanks, Buzz Bissinger.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 3+-
You're welcome.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Exactly. Come September the Rays will be in fourth place, struggling to reach .500. As usual.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
"as usual"??? KD... 4th place would not be "as usual"
Permalink
SSreportersLegend
607 days ago
Score 2+-
They have finished 4th once (in 2004). Every other year they finished 5th, AKA dead last in the AL East.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 4+-
Wow, great point... Thanks, Cougar.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
607 days ago
Score 4+-
First of all, batting average is not going to tell you as much about offense as runs per game. Tampa is 5th in the league, Toronto is 12th, which explains why Tampa is doing better than Toronto. Also, the stats do predict winning %, that's why the Pythagorean Expectation works. It's just that, this early in the season, you're going to see some flukes and some teams not living up to their run differentials. Give it a full season, though, and most teams will be close to the record their runs scored and allowed says they should have (unless they're the 2007 Diamondbacks, but that's a different story).
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Stats don't predict ANYTHING. They explain probabilities based on a chosen set of gathered information.


Past performance does not ensure future results.

Pythagorus was always right with triangles (so punny) and merely a close or lucky guess in baseball. See: '07 Diamondbacks... or '06 Cardinals, '01 Mariners, '54 Indians, etc. ad nauseum...
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 0+-
That's the point of sabermetrics, Manny, trying to predict the future. I can take a quote from Davis himself,

"trying to predict the unpredictable"

The harder you try, the more you look like a horse's ass.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
...says "the fackin' genius who predicted Andy Sonnanstine was a legitimate pitcher".
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
He is. Tough you don't agree.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
...says the fackin' genius that thinks Edwin Jackson is...
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
I was making a point about you trying to be a horse's ass by predicting things...


I like Sonny, and I want him to do well but he isn't Greg Maddux-lite. He is a #5 starter on a hot streak.

I don't think he has as high a ceiling as EJack and they both tend to revert to "previous form" after a second good outing. EJax has more "stuff" and a better ability to get hitters out. Jack might give up more walks but he isn't as hittable.

Sonnanstine is NOTORIOUS for buzzing through a lineup and then getting smacked around the second time through.

In two years Sonny won't be in St Pete.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Sonnanstine - avg against - .250

Jackson - avg against - .211

I prefer guys that are harder to get hits against... my bad.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Whatever.

I'm far too busy to get into (AGAIN) why he's a good pitcher, and why he will be in Tampa far longer than Jackson.

Bottom line is this, Sonnanstine is the same type pitcher as James Shields. It takes longer for junkballers to find their niche because they can't just go out and blow hitters away. Randy Johnson was in the major leagues for 15 years before he learned how to pitch. Some guys have the gift of throwing 98 cheese or 91 sliders. Some guys fastballs don't reach 91, like Maddux and Sonnanstine and Shields. These guys have shorter margins for error, when they're good they're good, and when they suck they really suck.

Sonnanstine has found himself, and has learned to pitch.

Pretty simple, really.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Baserunners per 9 innings pitched, Jackson, 11.7, Sonnanstine, 10.9. Now what?
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Edwin Jackson doesn't give up extra base walks...
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Hey, Sonnanstine and Jackson are both better than Matt Garza at least.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
He was fine yesterday. His last two outings were way better than his first two.


I'm not worried about Garza one bit - and he will be better long term than both Jack and Sonny combined.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Now you're just being a horse's ass.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Ha ha! A horse's ass is all the losers see at the wire!
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Yeah, how many hits a team gets in a game has nothing to do with scoring runs.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 7+-
Can you win a game with no hits? Yes, yes you can... but you can't win a game without a run.

Please fellas, stop arguing over how to enjoy the game best.

No matter what you see before the game - stats or scouting reports - all that matters is what happens next.

Tom Lawless - a career .207 hitter - had one hit in the 1987 World Series - a HR - that's as many HR as he had in his CAREER to that point. His only WS hit proved to be the game winner.

What stat or scout would have predicted that???


The BEAUTY of the game is that when it comes down to it, you get three outs and anything can and will happen REGARDLESS of the stats, regardless of the scouting reports, regardless of logic.


Mickey Hatcher can be a hero. Bucky Dent can go yard. Leon Durham can make an error. "Mr November" can bat .148 in a seven game series.


NO method of player evaluation is perfect.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
607 days ago
Score 6+-
Boy, you're just not getting it all over the place today.
Permalink | Reply
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
I get it more than you do, brother.
Permalink | Reply
OvertheedgeVarsity
607 days ago
Score 3+-
two years ago nobody would have even talked about these two teams
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 5+-
Two years ago, my house would have sold for almost twice what I'm asking for it now.

Two years ago, my kids were in diapers.

Two years ago, Derek Jeter was a gold glove shortstop (according to a panel of voters, that is)

Two years ago, Brokeback Mountain won an Academy Award.

Two years ago, Tiger Woods' Dad was still alive.


Times change - Fast. Catch up or fall behind.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 4+-
Two years ago, I hadn't discovered Armchair yet.

Two years ago, I wasn't as smart as I am now.

There is a connection.
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Two years ago, SSR wasn't a teenager. :P
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Top Notch, Ezzo!
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 3+-
I can't believe I actually thought of that before you guys did. ;)
Permalink
SSreportersLegend
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Tsk Tsk Romi.... I'm only 4.
Permalink
SSreportersLegend
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Two years ago, Tony Kornheiser wasn't on Monday Night Football.
Permalink
Cougar2000All-American
606 days ago
Score 0+-
They might have given Toronto some ink two years ago. Now the tables are turned, so to speak. The Devil Rays now find themselves tied for second place with Baltimore, who are actually playing pretty good baseball themselves. Is is parity? Probably. Keep in mind that some teams are paying a higher luxury tax than others, so that could be another explaination.
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
607 days ago
Score 3+-
In Jackson's last start against the Red Sox he gave up only one earned run in 8 innings while Buchholz allowed 2 runs in 8 innings so it will be interesting to see the game tonight.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Well, based on what they did in the past, it's coincidental that they both did well. So, it will be interesting to see what they will do. However, it could be a totally different game, in many ways.
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Good topic, Niteowl. I know exactly what you mean when you talk about baseball and how stats can't be involved. However, I think that's for any sports. You cannot depend on the past to predict the future. It just doesn't work that way. These guys aren't machines: they're people, just like you and me. Players' stats change due to how they feel themselves (mentally, physically, emotionally, etc. Ex. fear from a certain batter, a death in the family, how they are in terms of confidence, etc.), how they cooperate as a team (problems caused or settled in the lockerroom), what team they face, whether the coach believes they are reliable or not (ie. Barry Zito, Derrick Turnbow)... there are a lot of reasons. YOU CANNOT RELY ON STATS. Face it. I wish I remembered that every time I debated against someone, here OR outside of AGM.
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 5+-
Stas tell you what was, not what will be.


That being said - D21Dub has an amazing mind and is able to see the gears that come together to make events turn into history. I would be a tremendous liar if I said I didn't learn some things from his offerings.

Stats have a place in sports, undoubtedly. But they aren't a crystal ball...


Keep in mind, my Mom got me a World Aalmanac and a Bill James' Historical Abstract for Christmas throughout the 80's...

But playing the game learns you some things - no matter WHAT - ANYTHING can happen


What say what say what? ANYTHING can happen!


And that is what makes baseball the beautiful game. You can come back from any deficit, you can fight through any obstacle, overcome any circumstance - as long as you have just ONE MORE STRIKE!
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
607 days ago
Score 2+-
The recaps yesterday got zero comments after I wrote them for 4 hours so decided to try something new. The worst part though is that you spent so long editing them and adding photos.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 3+-
It's ok, Niteowl. Seriously, I love editing your articles. It helps me AND it helps the AGM community. BTW, it seems like this article really seems to be doing well... at least for 4 or 5 of us. ;)
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
607 days ago
Score 3+-
I think it is gametime so I am going to watch some baseball. Think my Braves are on right now.
Permalink | Reply
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 3+-
I have a game to go watch too. Something about the PING of an aluminum bat just gives me goose bumps.
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Ah well, I guess I'm the only person that doesn't have to do anything right now. It's 2:30 am right now, with absolutely nothing to watch. (Can't watch baseball, unless it's through the internet, so I guess I'll do that).
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
607 days ago
Score 4+-
I have 9 more beers to drink before I open a bottle of Wild Turkey 101. Stupid rain delays...
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
607 days ago
Score 2+-
This really didn't get any comments either, just a "debate" on worthless stats and which sucky Rays pitcher sucks less.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 3+-
I beg to differ. Check out my little paragraph I added about 20 minutes ago.
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
607 days ago
Score 2+-
Well, 36 minutes now.
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
607 days ago
Score 3+-
Taking a commercial break from game...Reds 0 Braves 0...Chipper broke his 0 for 7 with a single. Hudson has ERA over 6.00 in last 3 games.
Permalink | Reply
Cougar2000All-American
606 days ago
Score -1+-
The Devil Rays have been looking good of late. Now the problem is can they keep this pace up? Remember, they are in the AL East, which has been ruled by the Yankess and the Red Sox all these years. It's not going to be an easy road for Tampa but if they continue this path, they won't be the doormats of the American League anymore. BTW, Hudson was lights out against Cincy last night! 10 k's, a complete game (which is what the Braves bullpen needed!) and a win!
Permalink | Reply
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