Pujols Named MVP after Powering Cardinals to 4th Place!

Howard was atrocious in April, June and August. Do the games in those months not count? He got hot in September, the only month in which he posted a higher OPS than Pujols. If he had been better all year, the Phillies would have clinched a lot sooner than the final week of the season.

Put Pujols on the Phillies and they would have done so. Also, RBIs are context-driven. Howard came to the plate with runners on base more than all but six players in baseball, getting nearly 50 more chances with runners in scoring position than Pujols because he had good teammates setting the table in front of him and stealing bases like Jimmy Rollins--43-for-47. RBIs are a team-driven stat.

Pujols had a higher BA, OBP, SLG and OPS with RISP; essentially, he was the more productive hitter in clutch sports but had fewer chances. He had better numbers in the stats that count, OBP and slugging, which have the most correlation on scoring runs. He is also a much better fielder and was consistent all year. The Phillies would have won the East by around 10 games had Pujols been their first baseman.

Howard was not even the most valuable player on his own team, which would be Chase Utley. Utley played a more demanding position defensively, playing it as well as any other 2B in the game. He also hit 32 homers and had a higher BA, OBP and OPS than Howard. Really, it is not even close.

In actual value, Howard was not even a Top-5 player; you are simply getting confused by his lofty counting stats. His VORP was a third of Pujols', and the Cardinals first baseman also led the league in offensive winning percentage as well.

Howard hit some big home runs down the stretch, sure, but had a pretty lousy year overall. He was a non-factor in the first half, which really hurt the Phillies. One month does not make him the most valuable.

Honestly, if you were a GM, would you rather have Howard or Pujols?

Essentially, you are holding the fact that Howard had better teammates against Pujols, who singlehandely kept the Cards in contention for much of the season. If Pujols had a better supporting cast and played for a loaded roster like the Phillies, he would have been a slam dunk. Why should that matter; last time I check the M.V.P. was an individual award, not a team award. But the only reason Howard garnered some votes is because he played on studly team. It is not rocket science.

I think AF #1 is kinda off in his assessment. Its not a question of who is better, or who would you prefer if you were a GM?

As far as teammates, that's not entirely true either. While Howard had Burrell and Utley (both of whom has much worse 2nd halves, whereas Howard stepped it up), Pujols had Troy Glaus, Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumacher (who's not a bad leadoff guy as far as OBP)...

What it really comes down to, and I'm reminded of this article, is that while the cardinals were pretty good hitters (12th in MLB in runs, 3th in the NL, 20 behind the Phils), they were a pedestrian 14th in the MLB in pitching (7th in the NL, Phils being 4th in NL and 6th in MLB as far as ERA as well)...

So while you can cite stats for both, what it comes down to is that this argument would exist if Pujols's team could pitch...

Oh and Howard has the hardware the counts...much like Pujols did in 2006...

A story that's told all the time in baseball is a player goes to an owner after a great year (in the era before free agency when players essentially had to ask for a raise each year). he says hey i want a raise i had a great year... the owner says we could have finished in last without you and i believe he trades him. I'm not saying Pujols isn't the better player cause he clearly is or that players on losing teams have no value, but how important is it really to a 4th place team that you knocked in that extra run or got that extra hit? you still finished 4th.

Agreed. Howard could not even hold Pujols' jock strap. He is a much better, more consistent hitter and a better fielder and baserunner, too. It is not even close. He had better stats in every category except home runs and RBIs, misleading, context-driven counting stats. He had 100 more at-bats overall, and 50 more at-bats with runners in scoring position. Give Pujols the same number of chances and he would have finished with around 46 home runs and 146 RBIs as well. It helps having Rollins and Utley batting ahead of him; again RBIs require other players on the team.

And you are wrong. The Phillies still could have first without Howard. They had a stud bullpen and other offensive stars. Plug in a replacement-level 1B, and they still win the East. Put Pujols on the Phillies, they win the division by 10 games and clinch in the first week of September.

Howard seriously hurt the Phils with atrocious months in April, June and August. He got hot at the right time and provided a bunch of home runs in BIG games in September. Had he hit better in the first half and August, those games would not have been BIG, as the Phils would have clinched already. I am sorry, a player who gets hot in one month does not make him the most valuable player. Your definition of value is misguided.

And, again, Howard was not even the most valuable Phillie. Lidge, Utley and Hamels all added more real value. Going by your logic, if you take any of those three away--though Madson would have saved around 37 in 41--the Phils' chances of winning a title would have been considerably worse than if they lost Howard. Can we stop the sillyness that Howard is an M.V.P. candidate? I can't believe I agree with Kelsdad, but he is absolutely right. Howard is an overrated hitter who is easy to exploit, nearly struck out 200 times and was poor against left-handed pitching.

Seriously, Anonymous Fanatic #1, sign up...

Let me read a quote by Albert Pujols in his MVP speech:
"I have to thank my teammates," Pujols said at a news conference at Busch Stadium on Monday afternoon. "Obviously this is not an award that you win by yourself. My teammates were involved every day, day in and day out, supporting me, getting on base and driving me in. These kinds of numbers, you can't do it by yourself."

Sure, Ryan Howard had the numbers, beating every single Major League player in home runs and RBI, but that's not all that makes a true Most Valuable Player.

Do you honestly think that the Cardinals would've been close to 86 wins had it not been for Pujols? So what if they ended up in 4th place; for the Cardinals, 86 wins was damn good in my book. Chris Carpenter, their ace, was gone for most of the season, and the Cards needed to rely on a pitcher with a 4.62 ERA in 2007 (Wainwright didn't play for most of June and July). The Cardinals' bullpen was one of the worst bullpens this season. 30+ blown saves is not good for one season. And of course, it's not Pujols' fault that their bullpen wasn't strong (or even decent). The Phillies won 6 more games than the Cardinals. Remember Brad Lidge? That guy who did not blow ONE save? I'm sure he had something to do with the fact that the Phils won 92 games. I'm sure if someone else was in his position (Brett Myers maybe?) they'd be closer to the Cardinals (maybe even worse).

And about the little sarcasm about Howard not being very successful from Day 1, here is another quote from Pujols: "I would say this year was the best because of the consistency that I had from Day One all the way to the end of the season. I was really patient at the plate." That's also what got him to another MVP: the fact that he could be relied on from day 1. If there were two players (let's take Pujols' and Howard's 2008 seasons), where one player did well from the very start and the other one did well 2 months after Opening Day, I'm going to say that the player who did well since the very beginning is more valuable to his team than the other case.

You're also ignoring the fact that Pujols is MUCH better defensively at first. A LOT better.

Strikeout numbers? As if this really matters all that much, but Pujols struck out only 54 times in 2008. He put the ball in play a lot more than Ryan Howard did with 199 K's.

On top of that, Pujols had to do all of this with an arm injury that he had to have surgically repaired at the end of the season.

I said earlier this year that Ryan Howard would probably either win the MVP award (and I'd get extremely pissed), or Albert Pujols would win it (with Ryan Howard being second place). Heck, I would've even went Berkman for MVP over Howard.

Albert Pujols' MVP award was well deserved. No one (including the AL players) was more valuable to a team than he was this year.

The MVP's the best player award. Not the best player on the best team, that's a load of Crap. Pujols was definitely more valuable, without him who else did the Cards have? They probably would have been in the cellar.

Chase Utley was more valuable to the Phillies than Howard was this year. He was more valuable to the Phillies than Jimmy Rollins last year. I think the real injustice here is that he is so under appreciated. Oh, and just sticking my head in on the other part...not for nothing, but Pujols' batting average (.357) was higher than Howard's OBP (.339).

What Pujols said is irrelevant. The man is a great hitter, but he is wrong on this front. A player should not have to play on a contender to win an M.V.P. http://jonah...ted_content/

The writers were wrong. Howard should not have finished second. Again, Utley, Hamels and Lidge were all considerably more valuable to their team. Howard had one good month, which tricked silly, traditional writers who do not know have to objectively define value.

The objective data says that Howard was not even a Top-10 player in the N.L. He was practically a guaranteed out in three months of the season. Do those games not count? Based on the faulty logic, if Howard went 0-for-200 with 100 Ks, but then had his September in a pennant race, he would be M.V.P.

Yes, it is silly that Howard was in the running. Outside of the context-driven counting stats, his numbers were terrible. He sucks at defense. He is not a good base runner. Pujols is better any way you slice it.

If you want to argue for Utley, I could really see a case. He finished 15th, but had a MUCH, MUCH better season than Howard and was more valuable to his team. He played an up-the-middle position and was more valuable offensively. So, yes, Howard as M.V.P. of the league when he was probably number four--or five, as even Burrell gave him a run for his money with a higher OPS and OPS+--on his own team. Someone who is not a Team M.V.P. should win the league M.V.P? That, my friend, is silliness.

Utley's first half slash stats line--.291/.372/.582 (.954 OPS)

Utley's second half slash stats line--.292/.390/.465 (.855 OPS)

Howard's first half slash stats line--.234/.324/.508 (.832 OPS)

Howard's second half slash stats line--.276/.360/.593 (.953 OPS)

Howard was a bit better than Utley in the second half offensively, but not by much. When you factor in that he was one of the top three defensive 2B in the game at a premium position, he was more valuable in the second half than Howard. And the first half is not even close. Over the course of the season, Utley was about 4-to-5 more wins more valuable than his teammate on the right side of the infield.

Which player was more valuable to his team over the course of the season with the following lines for each month.

Player A:

April—.365/.523/.594/1.117 May—.373/.454/.706/.1.160 June—.302/.444/.558/.1.002 July—.347/.413/.564/.977 August—.398/.491/.745/1.236 September—.321/.427/.702/.1.129

Player B:

April—.168/.298/.347/.645 May—.238/.344/.590/.934 June—.234/.287/.439/.726 July—.311/.366/.612/.978 August—.213/.328/.463/.791 September—.352/.422/.852/.1.274

Guess which one is which. Can we please end the Howard nonsense now? Your opinion is based upon subjective feelings, mine is based in factual data that proves Howard was not even the M.V.P. of his own team. You are entitled to your opinion, but it is wrong, according to the data.

AF #1 is absolutely right. howard shouldn't even be playing for a minor league team, let alone considered an mvp. he makes more errors in one game than pujls will make in his life. he can't hit in the clutch, and other than hitting meaningles homer, can't hardly hit at all. he's a disgrace to baseball and the phllies should wise up and trade him before he's a total waste of space. this sj-hypowhatever guy should get his head out of his butt. what a moron!

Oh, and about that quote by Pujols: "I see it this way: Someone who doesn’t take his team to the playoffs doesn’t deserve to win the MVP", he shortly thereafter said that Howard was a proper choice.

Source

What he said does not matter, however. It is about who added the most real value when looking objectively, not what the players think or say. Pujols was wrong in his assesment.

Howard finished 29th--yes, 29th!!!!!!!!--in Value Over Replacement Player. VORP does not account for defense, but that helps Howard, who sucks at fielding. Say what you want about the stat, but shouldn't an MVP candidate rank in the Top 10? At least? Utley and Rollins, each studs defensively, ranked higher in VORP, and were excellent in the field.

Pujols led the league in a landslide. http://www.b...p?cid=309868

Hanley Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, David Wright, Utley, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran and Ryan Ludwick round out the top 10. VORP is far from perfect, but it easy to make the case that all of these players added more real value to their teams than Howard did.

The M.V.P. is an individual award, not a team award. Why hold it against Pujols and several of the aforemtioned players for not playing on teams with better pitching staffs?

In light of my Armchair retirement, can AF#1 please get an account here and become my successor already? Geez!

Great article about this over at the Baseball analysts. http://baseb...wins_sec.php

After reading the article, if someone still thinks Howard deserved to win M.V.P., they are either a. a homer or b. an idiot.

I have tried to make an account but the security code thing did not show up.

A lot of valid points:

One issue I think a lot of people overlook is the MVP Award definition...

Is there one?

What I mean by that is; Most valuable to the team or league? Because they have team awards. If it's MVP of the League (that is what we're lead to believe), then that needs some definition, IMO

There is not one, and that leaves the door open for writers to come up with their own subjective takes on what it is value. The numbers, especially the new advanced metrics, allow us to see which players add the most real value in the things that lead to wins. To borrow a line from Rob Neyer, who sums up this perfectly in a comment over at the Baseball Analysts.

"Obviously, this is an age-old debate, one that our grandchildren will still be having in 40 years.

I do want to address Peter's suggestion that it's presumptuous (and in the end, counter-productive) to ascribe motives to voters.

Well, yes . . . but it's clear that voters *collectively* do have their biases (as we all do).

Sabermetricians tend to be biased toward the most productive players; or if you prefer, the most *valuable* where value is measured by doing things that lead to wins.

Non-sabermetricians -- including the great majority of award voters -- tend to be biased toward players who 1) play for playoff teams, and/or 2) drive in a great number of runs.

That doesn't mean there aren't exceptions. This year alone, Pujols and Pedroia both are exceptions to one or both rules. But the biases are there, and any half-baked study of the MVP balloting over the last few decades will show this to be true.

The voters' continuing preference for Justin Morneau over Joe Mauer speaks volumes. In this biased writer's opinion."

And the same is true in the American League. Justin Morneau finished second, which is equally egregious as Howard finishing second. Both players had high RBI totals, the result of ranking in the top 10 in their respective leagues in at-bats with runners on base.

RBIs are kind of a poor stat on their own, because it is so team, opportunity-driven.

Mauer won a batting title, posted the second-highest OBP in the A.L and played a premium position as well as any other catcher in the game. He did more things that lead to wins than Morneau, and it was not even close.

Ditto for Pujols. Utley did more things, the data suggests, that led to Phillies' wins than Howard. Voters, it seems, were fooled by the counting stats and one good month.