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Trecole696

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National League Central Preview

by Trecole696
created March 24, 2008, last edited February 10, 2009
11
Vote

1st Place, Chicago Cubs

Lineup:
SS Ryan Theriot
LF Alfonso Soriano
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Kosuke Fukudome
2B Mark DeRosa
C Geovany Soto
CF Felix Pie

Rotation:
RHP Carlos Zambrano
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Ryan Dempster
LHP Rich Hill
RHP Jason Marquis
SU: Carlos Marmol
CL: Kerry Wood

The Cubs brought over Kosuke Fukudome from Japan this winter to help solidify the middle of their order. It's still tough to tell what kind of power numbers he will put up in America, but he should be around .300, providing speed and solid defense. If Derrick Lee rebounds this year and can stay healthy, the Cubs should score plenty of runs. I like Theriot and Soriano at the top of the lineup. While their offense may not have quite the weapons that Millwaukee does, they have the better pitching. Carlos Zambrano and Rich Hill haven't even hit their prime yet and both are among the better starters in the NL already. Lilly is very steady in the 2 spot. It will be interesting to see how Dempster makes his return to the rotation, but the Cubs are banking on 30 starts from him. Their bullpen is finally settled as Kerry Wood takes over the closers role with Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry setting him up.

2nd Place, Cincinnati Reds

Lineup:
CF Corey Patterson
SS Jeff Keppinger/Alex Gonzalez
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
LF Adam Dunn
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Joey Votto/Scott Hatteberg
C David Ross

Rotation:
RHP Aaron Harang
RHP Bronson Arroyo
RHP Johnny Cueto
RHP Edinson Volquez
RHP Homer Bailey
SU: David Weathers
CL: Francisco Cordero

I think the Reds are primed to surprise people this year. With all that young talent in the lineup and rotation, I will actually be surprised if they aren't challenging the Cubs for the division in September. The second half of their starting rotation is very raw and that is the only thing that will be holding them back this year. Their lineup is going to score plenty of runs with veterans Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey and Brandon Phillips anchoring the middle of the order and youngsters like, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce all looking to break onto the scene in '08. The Reds have so many hitters that they don't have room for them all which is why Bruce will start the year in AAA. Their bullpen should be the strongest it's been in years with the addition of Francisco Cordero which moves Dave Weathers into his more comfortable set-up role. They also have the trading chips to acquire another starting pitcher if need be at the trade deadline. Things are definitely on the up in Cincinatti.

3rd Place, Milwaukee Brewers

Lineup:
2B Rickie Weeks
SS J.J. Hardy
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF Corey Hart
3B Bill Hall
CF Mike Cameron/Tony Gwynn Jr.
C Jason Kendall

Rotation:
RHP Ben Sheets
RHP Jeff Suppan
RHP Yovani Gallardo
RHP Claudio Vargas
RHP Dave Bush
SU: Derrick Turnbow
CL: Eric Gagne

The Brewers should be in the wild card mix as well as the NL Central race this season. The have some question marks regarding their pitching, but their offense could be the best in the National League. Rickie Weeks should rebound and be the lead-off hitter he's been touted to be this season. They have a very deep, young lineup that doesn't really give you a break until you get to Jason Kendall down in the 8th spot and even he can be a tough out when he's on. Their pitching is a whole different story. Ben Sheets is still answering health questions after injuries only allowed him 24 starts last season. Jeff Suppan is a nice veteran presence to have on the staff as a number 4 starter, but asking him to be a number 2 is probably a reach. I like Gallardo and Villanueva, but I don't think their starting pitching will hold up against the Cubbies. Their bullpen isn't in much better shape. Eric Gagne hasn't been healthy this spring and it's still uncertain if he will be healthy to start the season. If Gagne and Sheets can stay healthy all year long, the Brewers should make some noise.

4th Place, Houston Astros

Lineup:
RF Hunter Pence
2B Kazuo Matsui
1B Lance Berkman
LF Carlos Lee
SS Miguel Tejada
3B Ty Wigginton
C J.R. Towles
CF Michael Bourn

Rotation:
RHP Roy Oswalt
LHP Wandy Rodriguez
RHP Brandon Backe
RHP Woody Williams
RHP Shawn Chacon
SU: Doug Brocail
CL: Jose Valverde

The Astros undoubtedly have the offense to keep up with any team in this division, and any team in major league baseball for that matter. They could hit 250+ home runs as a team this season if they stay healthy. Not only do they have power, but they get on base and have 3 or 4 guys who should steal 20+ bases. If only their pitching had the same kind of quality. Instead of giving Carlos Lee 100 million dollars last winter, it would have been in the Astros' best interest to invest that money in pitching to surround Roy Oswalt. Wandy Rodriguez has come on to be a serviceable left handed starter, but outside of him and Oswalt, the Astros are paper thin in the rotation. Their bullpen isn't much better. Jose Valverde is a quality young closer, but the Astros have no clear set-up man or any real structure to their bullpen outside of Valverde. Even with the offensive fire power, it should be a long year in Houston.

5th Place, Pittsburgh Pirates

Lineup:
CF Nate McLouth
SS Jack Wilson
2B Freddy Sanchez
LF Jason Bay
1B Adam LaRoche
RF Xavier Nady
3B Jose Bautista
C Ronny Paulino

Rotation:
RHP Ian Snell
LHP Tom Gorzelanny
LHP Paul Maholm
RHP Matt Morris
LHP Zach Duke
SU: Damaso Marte
CL: Matt Capps

The Pirates look like they have a young rotation in place that could be there for years. Snell, Gorzelanny, Maholm and Duke are all 27 years of age or younger and all have proven themselves to some degree at the major league level. The Pirates are hoping this is the year they can all stay healthy and grow together. Their lineup won't allow them to compete with the better teams in this division, but they still have some talent there. I would expect bounce back years from Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez is one of the most underrated hitters in the game (when healthy) so they will score some runs, but not enough. Their bullpen is still a work in progress but they believe they have found their closer of the future in Matt Capps. The Pirates, like the Reds, are certainly on their way up, but it may take another year or two for them to be legit contenders.

6th Place, St. Louis Cardinals

Lineup:
RF Skip Schumaker
2B Adam Kennedy
1B Albert Pujols
CF Rick Ankiel
3B Troy Glaus
LF Chris Duncan
C Yadier Molina
SS Cesar Izturis

Rotation:
RHP Adam Wainwright
RHP Todd Wellemeyer
RHP Brad Thompson
RHP Braden Looper
RHP Kyle Lohse
SU: Russ Springer
CL: Jason Isringhausen

It's tough to pick a team lead by Albert Pujols and Tony LaRussa to finish last, but the Cardinals pitching is in such bad shape that it will take a small miracle for them to even finish at .500 this season. Not to mention Pujols is hurting and could cut his season short to have surgery on his arm in order to be ready for spring training in 2009. I like Adam Waiwright and they have some other young quality arms, but they aren't ready to win any divisions.

The Giants Baseball Blog-http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/

Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
RomiezzoLegend
612 days ago
Score 3+-
Interesting picks, Trecole. Reds in 2nd? I don't think I'll agree with you there. The Brewers are going to do a a lot better than you think. What have the Reds possibly done to get better? Not much, right? So Griffey Jr. is a little older, so he's not going to be as productive. Dunn? He hits home runs, but strikes out a lot. You can't always depend on him. I think the only person the Reds can REALLY depend on now is Brandon Phillips.

The Brewers, on the other hand, have Prince Fielder, a man who hits over .280 (.020 more than Dunn) and will probably hit 20 more homers than Dunn, even though Dunn has had 40+ homers for 4 straight seasons. And I didn't even mention Ryan Braun. And the Reds' pitching sucks, don't forget about that.

Now the Astros, on the other hand, really worked hard to get a better offense this year, and that's exactly what they got. They lost a lot of games due to the fact that they left many runners on base and because they couldn't score any runs. They got Kaz Matsui, Miguel Tejada, and Hunter Pence for a full season. JR Towles is going to do some damage this year as well. Overall, I picked them for third this year, Cardinals 4th, Reds 5th. (Cubs 1st and Brewers 2nd, if you didn't notice).
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
612 days ago
Score 1+-
Well, it's pretty tough going from one league to another, but Gagne settled in pretty well with the Rangers as a closer. Once he was a set up man for Papelbon, he sucked, completely sucked. Maybe it's his luck of being a closer. Maybe it's just the fact that in his mind, he knows that if he gets three outs, it's over. I don't know. But the Brewers did manage to do really well in the beginning of the season, and then did mediocre (or a little better than mediocre) for the rest of the season, which is why the Cubs won. The Reds are depending on rookies who have absolutely no experience in the majors. I heard that at least two of the rookies (one of them being Bruce) didn't do very well in Spring Training. So, if they don't do well, they're definitely not going anywhere above 4th place this season, as the Astros have a chance to do better than them, and possibly the Cardinals.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
611 days ago
Score 2+-
Wait til you see my picks, Romi
Permalink
Trecole696Red-Shirting
611 days ago
Score 1+-
The Reds aren't relying on rookies anywhere in their starting lineup besides at first base. Joey Votto, by the way, hit .320 with 4 hr's and 11 rbi in only 87 at-bats in September last year, so I feel pretty comfortable there. They are depending on rookies in their rotation though. I think this team could be a lot like the '07 Rockies.
Permalink
Trecole696Red-Shirting
612 days ago
Score 2+-
The Reds get better by having Joey Votto take over for Scott Hatteberg. They also get better by having Jay Bruce on the team as he will likely be up at some point in May. Brandon Phillips has another year under his belt which will help. They traded Josh Hamilton for Edison Volquez who should be pretty good. I am also looking forward to Baker working with Adam Dunn. I think Dunn is going to have a monster year. Also, the addition of Cordero solidifies there bullpen. Your probably right though Romiezzo in thinking the Brewers will finish higher, but I just think the Reds pitching may finally come together this year (Bailey, Cueto, Voloquez). The Brewers still have pitching questions of their own to answer and I'm not sold on Eric Gagne being the dominant closer he used to be.
Permalink | Reply
Trecole696Red-Shirting
612 days ago
Score 2+-
The Astros have terrible pitching. It will be very tough for them to finish high, even with all that offense.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
612 days ago
Score 1+-
The Yankees had terrible pitching last year. They ended up in second place. I already mentioned most of the Astros' offense: Towles (a rookie who will probably do really well, as we got a taste as to what he can do in 2007), Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada (yes, he can still do damage), Kaz Matsui... you see what I mean?
Permalink
Trecole696Red-Shirting
612 days ago
Score 2+-
And I will bet any sum of money that Fielder does not hit 20 more home runs than Dunn this year.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
612 days ago
Score 1+-
I meant to say 10 BTW; that was a typo. I'll bet a load that Fielder will have 10+ more homers than Dunn. Dunn has had 160+ strikeouts every season he's hit 40 or more home runs. Fielder had 40 less strikeouts than Dunn, which proves that he has better eye-hand coordination than Dunn. Expect another 50 home run season from Fielder...
Permalink
Trecole696Red-Shirting
611 days ago
Score 2+-
Again Romiezzo, not arguing that Milwaukee will "likely" finish ahead of Cinci, but that's who everyone is going with and I really like the young talent Cinci has so I decided to mix things up a bit.

In defense, the Reds have as good as offense as any team in the division. Keppinger hit .330 last year and he will take over at short. Encarnacion hasn't even broken out yet and he's already a proven run producer. Phillips is an all-star, and Votto is should go 20-80 in his rookie year. Dunn strikes out a ton, but is still one of the more feared hitters in the game and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he breaks out this year with a 50+ hr season. Remember, he's only 28 so he's just now getting to the age where hitters reach their peak. Griffey is another veteran presence and still very effective at the plate. They have Jay Bruce waiting in the wings if Griff goes down. I also like Corey Patterson reuniting with Baker. He should excel hitting in that ballpark at the top of that lineup. If Cueto, Bailey and Voloquez pitch up to their potential and help out Harang and Arroyo, the Reds will be tough. I also like Cinci's bullpen over both Milwaukee's and Chicago's.

The Brewers have a great offense, but their starting pitching was bad last year and didn't make any improvements. I don't think Hardy will hit 26 homers again, but I do expect Weeks and Hall to have better years. They're banking a lot on Gallardo, but he's going to be hurt to start the year. Capuano and Bush both had era's in the 5's last year and I don't expect either to do much better. And if Gagne gets hurt (very likely), their bullpen will go from average to far below average.

The 'Stos have an even worse pitching situation than the Brewers. They also have a terrible defense. They will score runs, but so will their opponents.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
611 days ago
Score 1+-
I remember the Astros losing very close games due to the fact that they couldn't score runs. They got rid of Everett, a very good defensive shortstop, and filled him in with someone who will produce a lot of runs: Miguel Tejada.


I wouldn't go too far with the reliance on top notch rookies for the Reds. Sure, they've got young talent, but they need a helluva lot more experience, which is exactly why two of them got sent to the minors. Dunn is 28, sure, and he's in his prime, but who else do they have in the heart of their lineup that's going to make him do very well. They've got Brandon Phillips and who else? Junior? I honestly think that he's not going to be racking up the numbers he has been since the return of his injury. It's that time for him to be going downhill. And besides Harang, I honestly don't think the Reds have any good starting pitching. Francisco Cordero is the only good pitcher in their bullpen, and he's on and off. His ERA jumped up really high from one point in time to another.

You made some good points, but I honestly think that the Reds won't finish higher than 4th this year. I'm just saying...
Permalink
Trecole696Red-Shirting
611 days ago
Score 0+-
That last line should read "the Stros"
Permalink | Reply
KelsdadAll-Star
611 days ago
Score 1+-
Chris Capuano is out for the season (Tommy John).
Permalink | Reply
Trecole696Red-Shirting
611 days ago
Score 1+-
that's right, forgot about that.
Permalink
CoreyisarealboyMajor Leaguer
611 days ago
Score 2+-
Though you guys will have to wait for my full preview, I'll throw you a few bones.

With Capuano out for the season, this basically gives Manny Parra a guaranteed spot in the rotation since he's the only other southpaw out of the starters. My guess is Bush and Villanueva will get stuck in long relief duty. If they go all righty, Bush gets it over Parra and Villanueva.

Jason Kendall will be batting ninth behind the pitcher for most of the games, as Ned Yost has said on several occasions. The point? Maximizing offensive potential. With Rickie Weeks also possessing home run power, it's more likely to have a man on with Kendall rather than a pitcher.

The relief pitching for Milwaukee has been pretty damn good so far this spring, at least for the guys that are going to be making the team. David Riske has a 2.25 ERA, Brian Shouse a 2.35 ERA, and...wait for it...Guillermo Mota currently has a 1.74 ERA in nine spring appearances.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
611 days ago
Score 6+-
Image:DustysDugoutDice.jpg
Permalink | Reply
CoreyisarealboyMajor Leaguer
611 days ago
Score 2+-
I just want to know if that's a commentary on the manager, the team or both.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
611 days ago
Score 2+-
As goes the manager, so goes the team. And in the process, their pitchers' arms go to the DL. But by cracky, those bases don't get clogged!
Permalink
Steel TownDraft Pick
611 days ago
Score 2+-
The Buccos are gonna steal the show this year. You heard it here first.
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
611 days ago
Score 1+-
"Steel" the show? :)
Permalink
Steel TownDraft Pick
611 days ago
Score 0+-
Capps isn't gonna get a contract from the Pirates this year. I forget who the new closer is, but I'll let you know later.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
611 days ago
Score 1+-
"At the start of the camp, closer Matt Capps and setup men Damaso Marte and John Grabow were the only ones guaranteed a spot on the Major League club". Source: http://pitts...amp;c_id=pit
Permalink
Steel TownDraft Pick
611 days ago
Score 1+-
Wow, your right. Several weeks ago all we heard about was how Capps wanted too much money, I guess he got a contract after all. Yet another signal that the Bucs want to actually change the attitude here and start winning.
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
611 days ago
Score 1+-
I can see Pittsburgh doing better. A lot of changes have been going on in the MLB, especially in the NL Central though. There is a lot of young talent on almost all (if not all) rosters. It's just that they don't seem to get it together, as well as the fact that most of the management of the six teams suck, no offense.
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
611 days ago
Score 0+-
Pirates have some good pitching and the hitting is looking better and LaRoche should do better out of the gate this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates do well.
Permalink | Reply
Niteowl049AAA-er
611 days ago
Score 3+-
The Astros pitching staff is Oswalt and pray for four days of rain.
Permalink | Reply
RomiezzoLegend
611 days ago
Score 1+-
Well, they got Wandy Rodriguez, who did excellent at home. 2.94 ERA, and a 1.105 WHIP. Not bad, eh? I'd say for someone who gets underestimated because he does horrible outside of Houston, with a 6.37 ERA.
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
611 days ago
Score 1+-
The fact that Woody Williams is probably in the rotation again this year tells me all I need to know about the Astros pitching.
Permalink | Reply
KelsdadAll-Star
611 days ago
Score 4+-
With almost no exceptions, the Reds rookies ARE almost ML ready, the fact they're in the minors now means nothing. (Neither Ryan Braun nor Hunter Pence started the season in the majors last year, and Evan Longoria was just sent down by Tampa).

They have two pitchers, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, who both have legitimate #1 stuff. Only Washington can make the claim they have two guys just about ready and have stud written all over them.

Bruce may have struggled, but remember he is just 20 years old and despite his success last year is still relatively inexperienced. Winning MilB player of the year was no fluke.

Joey Votto is not just a power guy, he is a good hitter and fielder.

That's the top four on the Reds prospect list and they are all pretty much ready. Bruce needs a few Triple A at bats, Bailey needs to work out some mechanical issues but if you gave me the choice I would take him over ANYONE in the minors right now, Votto is in the ML, and Cueto is in the same boat as Bruce, he's only 20 and just needs some innings.

The Reds fifth prospect is a guy named Drew Stubbs, who is a righthanded Adam Dunn, although Stubbs is a far better defensive player and is likely Cinci's CF of the future, which will move Bruce to RF.

If the Reds get any contribution this year from half these guys, and Junior and Encarnacion stay healthy, if they get a repeat performance from Phillips and Harang, and normal production from Dunn, the Reds will win the division, and do so easily.
Permalink | Reply
TrizzAll-American
611 days ago
Score 0+-
The Reds second place!!! (retracts vote)
Permalink | Reply
Patrickburke1980All-American
611 days ago
Score 2+-
up and down, pitching and hitting, the brewers look really good.
Permalink | Reply
Bobbyjim45Draft Pick
611 days ago
Score 1+-
I would love to see Dusty play Votto over Hatteberg. Votto is going to be an excellent player.
Permalink | Reply
Bobbyjim45Draft Pick
611 days ago
Score 1+-
cough(and he's on my fantasy team)cough
Permalink
Niteowl049AAA-er
611 days ago
Score 0+-
So far Votto is still on the team...haven't heard anything about him being sent down.
Permalink | Reply
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Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User Trecole696 | March 24, 2008 | March 2008 | MLB Opinions | National League Opinions | Albert Pujols Opinions | St. Louis Cardinals Opinions | Ken Griffey Jr. Opinions | Chicago Cubs Opinions | Kosuke Fukudome Opinions | Kerry Wood Opinions | Alfonso Soriano Opinions | Carlos Lee Opinions | Prince Fielder Opinions | Rick Ankiel Opinions | Adam Dunn Opinions | Jay Bruce Opinions

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