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Mmyers

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NHL Power Rankings and Playoff Index

by Mmyers
created January 22, 2008, last edited February 10, 2009
7
Vote

The table below shows ChanceBot.com 's Power Rankings and Playoff Index for the NHL as of 1/22/2008.

Power Rankings provide a calculation of relative team strength based on performance to date.

The strongest team is given a strength of 0.0 and all remaining team strengths are relative to this standard.

The difference between two teams' scores indicates the expected average goal differential in a series of neutral-ice games played between the two teams.

The Playoff Index for each team gives the probability (expressed as a percentage) that the team will make the playoffs.

These probabilities are calculated by simulating the remainder of the season while taking into account team strength, home-ice advantage, and historical trends.


Team Power Rating Playoff Index
Detroit 0.00 100.00
Ottawa -0.88 99.88
Dallas -0.90 89.71
Philadelphia -0.93 99.17
Vancouver -1.04 68.89
San Jose -1.09 86.27
Colorado -1.12 74.81
Pittsburgh -1.14 95.63
Calgary -1.15 67.51
Montreal -1.17 95.01
Minnesota -1.22 80.19
Columbus -1.24 31.31
Chicago -1.25 24.50
New Jersey -1.26 94.83
Anaheim -1.27 70.61
St. Louis -1.28 44.94
Nashville -1.32 22.93
Phoenix -1.33 32.69
Boston -1.44 69.74
Buffalo -1.49 33.82
Carolina -1.58 45.61
New York Rangers -1.59 28.43
Washington -1.60 47.88
Edmonton -1.63 5.58
New York Islanders -1.68 44.65
Los Angeles -1.72 0.05
Florida -1.80 15.86
Toronto -1.84 38.6
Tampa Bay -1.85 6.50
Atlanta -1.95 15.80
Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
JuTMSY4Legend
716 days ago
Score 1+-
I'm getting the feeling the Flyers schlacking of the Sens helped their ranking out a bit
Permalink | Reply
MmyersWaterboy
716 days ago
Score 1+-
Definitely. Their power score from that game was very close to the maximum allowed by the bot. (In order to prevent blowouts from skewing the ratings, there is a max.) Thanks for the vote.
Permalink
Falcon02520Legend
716 days ago
Score 3+-
MM... I created a table with the info you had; if I screwed anything up, let me know here and I'll fix it
Permalink | Reply
JuTMSY4Legend
716 days ago
Score 0+-
so Mark, how do you explain the disparity in power scores vs playoff percentage...

for example, the Atlantic leading devils (tied with the flyers, but leading by by tiebreaker)are a -1.26 and i the middle, but are almost a 95% lock to make the playoffs...

i thought strength of schedule was important...and they play in the toughest division in the NHL...plus everyone in the atlantic has at least 50 points...
Permalink | Reply
MmyersWaterboy
716 days ago
Score 1+-
Thanks for the question.

I think if you look at it by conference, it makes more sense. Yes, New Jersey is in the middle of the pack but the weakness of the SE Division tends to cluster the playoff odds in the other two divisions in the east.

Projected points for first place in the SE is 88.55 which would be fourth place in the Atlantic or Northeast. So there is a good chance the five non-division in the eastern playoffs will be from those two divisions. It looks like the SE will get one at most.

If you go to the divisions and playoffs pages on my site you'll see how some of this breaks out (although I just realized that I have some presentation issues on both of those (the numbers in those tables are average points, not average wins).

The projected points for the last playoff spot in the east is 87.20. As of now, the Devils are comfortably above that at 95.68.

BTW, the average power ratings for the divisions are as follows:

W-Central | 0.00 W-Northwest | -0.21 W-Pacific | -0.25 E-Atlantic | -0.30 E-Northeast | -0.35 E-Southeast | -0.74

If you have any more questions, let me know.
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
716 days ago
Score 0+-
oh, and sorry, the devils are now tied for 2nd...i thought the pens lost last night, not an OT loss...
Permalink
MmyersWaterboy
716 days ago
Score 0+-
Oh and when I say SE will get one at most I am talking about one out of the other five. Sorry for any confusion.
Permalink
MmyersWaterboy
716 days ago
Score 1+-
Let's try to get some line breaks on those division power rankings. W-Central | 0.00
W-Northwest | -0.21
W-Pacific | -0.25
E-Atlantic | -0.30
E-Northeast | -0.35
E-Southeast | -0.74
Permalink | Reply
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Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User Mmyers | January 22, 2008 | January 2008 | NHL Opinions

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