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Bt534

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Boston's Golden Child; Jon Papelbon

by Bt534
created August 05, 2008, last edited August 07, 2008
6
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In Boston, we love our athletes. We watch their every move and if they ‘pass our test’ then we have a tendency to give them a free ride for as long as they are here.

Prior to the “cheating” scandal Bill Belichick had secured the title of best football coach in the world\smartest human being alive and as a result coined the phrase ‘Bill Belichick status.’ Every gamble he took paid off and any media member who dared question him immediately lost credibility. (I can only imagine how much money Belichick must have made in lottery tickets alone.)

After the Red Sox won the 2007 World Series Jonathan Papelbon reached “Bill Belichick status!” Now that he has hit the first bump in the road in his career (5.79 ERA in first half of July) no one is willing to risk losing credibility by attacking a guy fans love! (Not that the Boston media picks favorites or anything.)

As of late Pap appears to have lost confidence in his once unhittable splitter leaving his fastball as his only weapon. He has thrown a considerably higher percentage of fastballs in the first half of July than he has in the past. (See Figure 1) He still gets the job done most of the time, but when it comes to Papelbon MOST of the time is not what Red Sox fans expect. The guy routinely enters games to chants of “it’s all over!” [FYI: Prior to 2004 Red Sox fans were more afraid of bad karma than earth quakes, hurricanes, car accidents, the boogie man and Psychotic ex-girlfriends combined!] 

I noticed that Pap had abandoned his splitter about a month and a half ago when he entered a game and began throwing only heat. First pitch: 97 mph on the outside corner (FILTHY) strike one. Second pitch: 96 mph up and away, swing and miss strike 2. (At this point I’m thinking; SIT DOWN BITCH, game over!!!) Third pitch: fast ball away, fouled off. Fourth pitch: fastball away, weak ground ball to second base, one out. The heaters kept coming for the duration of the outing and left me a little curious, where was the split? Recently, at a game verse the Twins, I told my buddy about my “no splitter theory” and he [predictably] told me I was crazy. Three outs, no hits and 20 fastballs later we were both left to wonder. My buddy wondered if my concerns were valid, while I wondered why Sox fans refused to admit that Pap has not been his usual dominating self.  

After much internal debate the following two questions helped me to come to an answer.

Question 1 : Who are the five most care-free players on the Red Sox?

My Answer: David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, Jonathan Papelbon and Dice-K (who made the list due to Manny’s unfortunate disdain for Red Sox management and adulthood)

I distinctly remember sox stars David Ortiz, Pedro and Mo Vaughn as fierce competitors on the field AND fun loving guys off it. In Boston it is a well known fact that David Ortiz is a fantastic chef. His barbeques are legendary. (I am trying as hard as I can to avoid making a Jose Conseco joke here.) Pedro Martinez was once duct taped to a dugout pole. (Fortunately a foul ball did not find its way towards him.) And not to be outdone, Mo Vaughn once flipped his car drunk driving home from a strip club in the middle of the night. (In hindsight that was probably more fun for me to read about then for him to be a part of.)

Never the less, these are real people Red Sox Nation can relate too. I would love to get a beer with any of these guys and I am not alone.

Jonathan Papelbon takes the ‘relaxed image’ to the extreme. How easy is it to imagine him towel whipping guys in the showers, giving Okajima atomic wedgies, switching Lugo’s glove with a butterfly net and a note that says “hope this helps you hang onto grounders”, and trying to get Manny Delcarmen to make a punk rock music video called “blame it on the rain” with him? (oh wait that actually happened!) He reminds everyone of a guy we knew in college and as a result fans can not help but to love the guy.

Question 2 : Who are the five most intense (throw back) players on the Red Sox?

My Answer: Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Veritek, Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett.

When I think of “old school” I think of my grandfather. I picture a hard-working, unselfish man who did everything possible to support his family. I know he must have pounding beers  with his buddies from time to time, but I just can not imagine it. My father never described that side of him to me and I was too young to see it. Similarly no matter how hard I try I can not picture Yaz grilling up some burgers on his Webber. I’m at least 85% sure that Ted Williams has never been duct taped to anything, and not only has Fisk does not ‘made it rain’ at a strip club at 3 am, but there is a pretty good chance that he would fight anyone who does. These guys were hardworking, dedicated, no-nonsense people who took their jobs seriously and respected the game. (Not exactly the type of guys you shoot the shit with.)

Older Red Sox fans especially love rooting for guys who “play the game the right way;” the way the old timers played it. Perhaps this is why Nomar was one of the most popular Sox in recent memory. He was machine-like in his mannerisms, repeating his routine in the batters box, on deck circle, and before the game everyday. He played the game the way coaches teach little leagues to play it. He always gave of the impression that he cared about the fans and as a result we cared about him, much like the fans of Ted Williams care about him to this day!  

Nomar was not the ONLY modern Red Sox play to hustle; he was a fan favorite because he was the most talented modern Red Sox player to do it all the time. If Darrin Lewis did not bust his balls in every inning that he played but instead played the game the way Manny did for example, he would have been coaching High school girls softball in his home town in no time.

Some will argue that anybody who dances around in his underwear, leotard and swimming goggles does not belong on the ‘intense list,’ while others will argue that anybody who has ever seen Papelbon’s “give me your lunch money before I shake you by your ankles” stare would have a hard time classifying him as “easy-going.” Either way, his military-like focus on the field, frat boy attitude off the field and superior talent to back it all up are quickly earning him a place among the most popular Red Sox ever.

A few points to consider about Papelbon:

1. Anyone who tries to explain to the New York media that he is a better closer then Mariano Rivera is not only confident but fearless. (Being fearless is a must for a great closer.)


2. The difference between a Jonathan Papelbon and a Manny Delcarmen has less to do with talent and more to do with attitude. Papelbon is the kind of guy who at age 19 could walk into a liquor store and confidently purchase 3 bottles of Vodka and a 6 pack of Mikes hard Lemonade (obviously for an attractive lady friend) and not get asked for his identification. Delcarmen is the kind of guy who could try to buy booze at age 19 but would probably get arrested (unless he had McLovin’s ID). Papelbon is a winner and winners do what they want!     

3. One of the reasons we remember guys like Ted Williams the way that we do is because the media scrutiny was not as intense when he played as it is today. If Charles Barkley had been born 30 years earlier we never would have learned of his gambling problems. Same goes for Michael Jordan and his adultery and Larry Bird and his daughter. (I hope they let me keep my Celtics season tickets after that last example.) Papelbon has used the extra attention to his advantage and as a result Red Sox nation feels like we know him.

Not every athlete knows how to handle the media. When young stars struggle in Boston the media has a tendency to vilify them after which they are never the same. Prime Example: Antoine Walker. (I was one of approximately seven Antoine supporters in Boston when he was being criticized for being too fat, or shooting too many three’s daily and it was ugly. )

My reactions to Papelbon’s struggle have followed a similar pattern to my reactions to Beli-gate. (Denial followed by anger and eventually “well everyone is doing it.”) When I first noticed that he was giving up more runs then normal I convinced myself that I was imagining things. After a few more subpar outings I resorted to throwing a cup across the room (not my proudest moment). These days, as with the Belichick situation, I am at the “well everyone goes through bad stretches” stage, and they do!    

In short, no one talks about Papelbon’s recent decline because we know that he will return to form. He clearly has the talent, we know he won’t lose confidence, he has the necessary attitude and he will not let the media drag him down!

This has not received any media scrutiny because so many other things have been going on with the Red Sox. Manny threw his usual mid-summer “John Henry stole my tricycle and I want it back” tantrum and this time managed to get himself traded. The middle relievers have proven to be better musicians then pitchers. Joba Chamberlain apparently has a dart board with Youk’s picture on it because he throws at his head ever chance he gets. And Tampa Bay has apparently hit puberty because their annual win totals have gone through a growth spurt.

With everything else going on perhaps it’s best to ignore Boston’s new golden child’s troubles, after all they might just go away.


Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
Bt534Waterboy
481 days ago
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(CLick on image to emlarge) I am not sure y it shrunk it to begin with.
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JuTMSY4Legend
481 days ago
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better?
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KelsdadAll-Star
481 days ago
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Who compiled the pitch chart data?
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JuTMSY4Legend
481 days ago
Score 1+-
The difference between a Jonathan Papelbon and a Manny Delcarmen has less to do with talent and more to do with attitude. Papelbon is the kind of guy who at age 19 could walk into a liquor store and confidently purchase 3 bottles of Vodka and a 6 pack of Mikes hard Lemonade (obviously for an attractive lady friend) and not get asked for his identification. Delcarmen is the kind of guy who could try to buy booze at age 19 but would probably get arrested (unless he had McLovin’s ID). Papelbon is a winner and winners do what they want! Or he's actually from the city of Boston (Roxbury Technically) and knows that most Boston liquor stores are hard asses who card anyone
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
481 days ago
Score 0+-
++++++++++
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Bt534Waterboy
481 days ago
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I compiled the Pitch Data chart on July 15. The numbers are valid as of then
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KelsdadAll-Star
481 days ago
Score 0+-
Thanks. Were you watching on TV?
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JuTMSY4Legend
481 days ago
Score 1+-
Red Sox fans: Reinforcing that that Papschmear guy is a douche since 2005
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Bt534Waterboy
481 days ago
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you mean where did i get the information? No, i didnt hear anyone on TV mention it because as i said (no one critisizes him!) but i noticed that he was throwing a lot of fastballs and looked up the actual numbers. Places like Baseball Reference have that kind of stuff
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KelsdadAll-Star
481 days ago
Score 0+-
Just curious as all, thanks.

The splitter isn't an easy pitch to throw, it requires daily work to remain effective. A splitter that doesn't split usually goes pretty far, so, yeah, maybe he is secretly hurt, hand, finger, wrist, etc. As a Yankee fan, I hope so.

Good work, man.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
481 days ago
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Or he could have been falling behind in the count, or not getting to the point in the count at which he/Varitek would like to use splitters.
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MegECass110AAA-er
481 days ago
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Awesome. You basically read my mind.

The whole concept of the save has been starting to irritate me...Paps is second in the league in saves, and his ERA is relatively low, but he hasn't been nearly as dominant as he was in the past. He had a perfect inning on Sunday (first one I've seen from him in a while), hopefully that trend can continue.

And if you look at K-Rod, he leads the league in saves and could set the ML record, and his ERA is 2.40 (Paps is 2.05). But he allows people to get on just about every time he pitches. Is he a great closer? Yeah. Would I rather have Joe Nathan as my closer? Absolutely.
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
481 days ago
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It's funny you mention that, the guy who invented the "Save" (they started keeping track in 1969) died within the last week. Without him Guys like Hoffman would have made a lot less mone!
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
481 days ago
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Isolating the first half of July creates an extremely small sample, particularly for a reliever. For Papelbon, it's 5 appearances, 4.2 innings, and 3 earned runs. He didn't allow more than 1 earned run in any of those appearances.


The 2nd half of July: 4.2 innings pitched, 0 earned runs. In total, he had a 2.89 ERA in July.


And he never ever said, insinuated, or implied that he was a better closer than Rivera. All he said was that he wanted to close the All-Star Game.
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Bt534Waterboy
480 days ago
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1. I am a HUGE Papelbon fan! I am not trying to put him down in any way. I am simply being objective.

2. In 5 of his last 6 outings he has pitched against either Oakland or Seattle. I think that has an affect on the result.

3. I specifically mentioned that he did get out of innings MOST OF THE TIME, but that it was with his fastball, which EVENTUALLY could hurt him.

4. He has not been falling behind in the count more then normal. He has been throwing a lot of early fastballs (which the %'s support) and that would lead me to believe he is getting ahead.

5. I specifically said I had no doubt that he would recover, so your point that he has pitched well as of late is one i have no problem agreeing with.

6. His splitter % for the month of july finished at around 6.5%. So he still is not throwing it.

7. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: the point of the article was only partially that he was SLIGHTLY struggling. The main point I was trying to get accross was that anyone who implied it immidiatly was told they were crazy and you have proved that to be correct. So thank you.


and as far as the whole rivera thing, when i heard that i took it to mean "i want to close the all star game because i am the best." So on that we will have to agree to disagree.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
480 days ago
Score 0+-
I didn't think you were putting Papelbon down, I just think it's weird to take 4.2 innings and make such a big deal out of it. That's not even the equivalent of one start.


Do you actually know he's getting ahead in the count? Or are you just assuming he is because he's throwing a lot of early fastballs. He also allowed 7 hits in that 4.2 inning stretch. Maybe batters made contact in at-bats BEFORE he could throw a splitter in an 0-2 or 1-2 count.


And if he still wasn't throwing the splitter in the 2nd half of July, yet he pitched much better in the 2nd half of July, doesn't that suggest that the frequency with which he throws a splitter doesn't have as much of a correlation with his success than you think it does?
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KelsdadAll-Star
480 days ago
Score 1+-
Bt,

Specifically to #4 in the above comment. After I read that, I went back and re-read the article again, and came up with this.

First, and just a minor point, your chart/percentages offer no support to WHEN he throws a fastball, and;

It is common for a pitcher to "learn" how to pitch at the ML level, this is especially true when his role changes between the minors and majors. This is Paplebon's fourth ML season, yet he has thrown only 209 career innings, the equivalent of one full ML season as a third or fourth starter.

Initially, he's relied on his fastball for two reasons, first, he's a kid, trying to strike out every hitter just like he did in high school or the minor leagues, second, his split or breaker aren't as fully developed as they would be if he had been a starter for three years and had pitched 600 innings.

So, looking at it now, maybe the changes are just a reflection of Paplebon maturing as a pitcher. The higher era could be nothing more than not throwing his other stuff in the right spot in the count. Another possibility for the higher era is he may be tipping the pitch, hitters probably haven't adjusted to his new pattern yet, at the same time he's getting hit more often. Certainly is alot easier to hit when you know what's coming.

Being hurt is still an option, but knowing how protective Francona is of his players, I doubt he would use him if even suspected something was wrong, even if Paplebon didn't tell anyone.

So I'm going to stick with the maturity line, just a normal progression all pitchers go through.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
480 days ago
Score 0+-
He has been used more often, and for longer than the Sox would have liked to use him. He does have a tendency to run out of gas if overly used (See: end of 2006). He could be nearing that point.
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Bt534Waterboy
480 days ago
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I agree that he has a tendancy to run out of gas a bit (see every year he has been in the majors first half vs second half)

I'd counter your point about his success by saying its been vs oakland and Seattle, and i am curious to see how he fares against better competition.

Also watch his next few appearences and see what your eyes tell you. (forget numbers) I clearly dont see the same domination that i have in the past. (Pap pitching ALMOST as well as he did in the past is still a top 3 reliever in baseball)

And while i agree that 4.2 innings is a short span, he wont be pitching 200 innings a year. 15 days is still 15 days.
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Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User Bt534 | August 5, 2008 | August 2008

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