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Billy Beane Is Smarter Than You….And I Can Prove It!
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as seen on: http://www.3rdstringsafety.com/
Because mlbtraderumors.com is awesome they are profiling a full trade profile for each current general manager. A student from Villanova University, Brendan Bianowicz, came up with a complete trade profile for our resident GM hero Billy Beane.
And as the title implies Mr. Beane has done a pretty damn good job managing the A’s with limited cash resources.
Here are some of Billy’s best moves:
7/31/199: Athletics Trade Billy Taylor to the Mets (GM Steve Phillips) for Jason Isringhausen and Greg McMichael.
Taylor appeared in 18 games for the Mets (13.3 innings) and posted a wonderful 8.10 ERA. Next year he was on The (Devil) Rays.
Izzy, who had struggled with the Mets (6.41 ERA in 39.3 innings), rejuvenated his career in Oakland posting a 2.13 ERA. He saved 67 games over the next two years for Oakland before moving on to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2002.
11/17/2000: Oakland trades Randy Velarde to the Rangers (Melvin) for Ryan Cullen and Aaron Harang.
Velarde was serviceable player (at best) for Oakland and was only with the Rangers for 78 games before being traded again. The Rangers gave up Aaron Harang in the deal and while Harang didn’t remain with the A’s he has become a very good starting pitcher. That’s Aaron Harang for 78 games of Rand Velarde.
1/8/2001: Athletics Trade Ben Grieve to the Devil Rays, (GM LaMar) Angel Berroa and A.J Hinch to the Royals (GM Baird) for Cory Lidle (from Tampa) and Johnny Damon and Mark Ellis (from K.C.)
This one looks really really lopsided; remember that we are blessed to have the power of hindsight.
In 2001 Ben Grieve was still a super prospect; he was the 2nd overall pick in the 1994 draft. In 1999 and 2000 Grieve had hit 28 and 27 homers. His SLG% was close to .500 (.487) and his .360 on base was respectable. Remember at the point he was still only 24 years old. Berrora, at the time, was a 23 year old infielder with a world of potential. In 2003, at the age of 25, Berrora was Rookie of the Year with the Royals (.287/.338/.451 with 17 HR and 21 SB.) It looked as if the Royals had the corner stone of their infield.
What couldn’t be predicted was that both Berroa and Grieve would totally flame out. Grieve finds himself out of the league and Berroa is quickly on that track.
In return Oakland got:
Two solid years out of Cory Lidle (R.I.P), one surprisingly mediocre year of Johnny Damon (and of course two first round picks from the Red Sox for losing him the following year.) and Mark Ellis whose been playing solid second base for Oakland ever since.
7/25/2001: Athletics Trade Todd Beiltz, Mario Encarnacion and Jose Ortiz to the Rockies (GM O’Dowd) for Jermaine Dye.
What’s that you say? You’ve never heard of any of the players traded for Dye? Well it’s for good reason, they all sucked. None lasted more than two years with Colorado and all have been out of baseball since 2002.
Dye on the other hand played great ball for the A’s for three and half seasons (including a monster line of .299/.367/.547 in 61 games after the trade in ‘01) before getting to expensive to afford.
3/28/2001: Athletics trade Miguel Cairo to the Cubs (GM Andy MacPail ) for Eric Hinske
12/7/2001: Athletics trade Eric Hinske and Justin Miller to Toronto (GM JP Ricciardi) for Billy Koch.
12/3/2002: Athletics trade Billy Koch, Neal Cotts and Daylon Holt to the White Sox (GM Kenny Williams) for Keith Foulke, Mark Johnson, Joe Valentine and cash.
An interesting series of moves by Beane, first he traded a career backup, Cairo, for Eric Hinske. Hinske never even put on an A’s uniform before being traded to Toronto (and Billy Beane disciple JP Ricciardi) for Billy Koch.
Hinske’s story is similar to Grieves and Berroa. He was a top prospect who had a great rookie year (.279/.365/.481) and won rookie of the year honors. Yet somehow Beane was accurately able to predict that he would never live up to his billing. Hinske never posted a year near his rookie season and has bounced around the league since.
Koch, 26 at the time of the trade, was a dominant closer for the Blue Jays, however he was coming off a down year (4.80 ERA) when picked up by Beane. Koch rejuvenated his career in Oakland posting a career high in saves (44) and innings (93) while sporting a slick a 3.27 ERA. And as only he can do Billy Beane rewarded Koch’s success with a ticket out the door.
Koch was traded to Chicago where he promptly sucked. Posting a 5.77 ERA in an injury plagued 53 games. Just over two years after the trade Koch’s career was over.
In return for Koch, Beane got Keith Foulke. Foulke pitched great for the A’s recording 43 saves with a 2.08 ERA. The next season (2004) Foulke moved onto Boston. I’m sure you can guess how the story ends. Foulke had a great 2004 before undergoing injury plagued years in 2005 and 2006 and leaving baseball until an attempted comeback with the A’s in 2008.
Billy Beane is clairvoyant. There’s no other explanation.
12/18/2004: Athletics trade Mark Mulder to the Cardinals ( GM Walt Jockety) for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton
12/14/2007: Athletics trade Dan Haren and Connor Robertson to the Diamondbacks (GM Josh Byrnes) for Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, Aaron Cunningham, Chris Carter, Brett Anderson and Greg Smith.
That’s a heall of a haul for Mark Mulder. Haren and Barton were stud prospects at the time. Haren become an ace in Oakland (and now Arizona) and while the jury is still out on Barton he still has a ton of potential.
Haren’s trade probably shocked and surprised A’s fans considering how good he was. However, he always had trouble in the second half of seasons. His hot start in Arizona is no surprise; let’s see if he can keep it up.
Haren’s trade this past off-season (along with Swishers) seemed to put the A’s into rebuilding mode. Billy Beane was rebuilding, he was reloading. Eveland and Smith are currently cornerstones of the A’s rotation. Gonzalez is struggling but is showing great tools (namely power) for the A’s. Cunningham, Carter and Anderson helped deepen an already deep farm system.
Mulder was great in 2005 for St. Louis (16 Wins, 3.64 ERA) but, much like Foulke and Koch, Mulder flamed out. He was awful in an injury plagued 2006 and has been injured ever since. He has yet to pitch in 2008.
1/3/2008: Athletics trade Nick Swisher to the White Sox ( GM Kenny Williams) Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos and Ryan Sweeny
The jury is still out on this trade. Oakland got a lot of raw arms whose stocks have dropped since the trade.
Swisher on the other hand has really struggled so far this season. He finds himself hitting .232/.346/.380. His lack of power has been the most surprising as many experts pegged him to hit 40 home runs at U.S. Cellular Field. Again it seems Beane sold a player at his peak value.
1/14/2008: Athletics trade Mark Kostay and cash to the Braves (GM Frank Wren) for Joey Devine, Jaime Richmond.
In return for an ancient Mark Kotsay the A’s got a closer in waiting Joey Devine. Devine was stellar, 3.80 ERA and a 1.045 WHIP.
I’m sure Devine will succeed Huston Street as closer and will be nasty. Two years later he’ll promptly be traded and break down.
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Of course Beane has faltered.
In 2003 he traded Harang (and other prospects) for a rental of Jose Guillen. Guillen faltered in Oakland hitting .265/.311/.459 in 45 games.
In 2003 he also traded Ted Lilly for Bobby Keilty. Keilty never developed into more than a platoon player while Lilly has a been a solid middle of the rotation starter.
In 2004 he traded Mark Teahen and Mike Wood for Octavio Dotel in a three way trade. Dotel was decent for Oakland before being moved again in 2005. Teahen hasn’t lived up to his billing as a top prospect but he’s been a solid hitter for K.C.
The biggest blunder to date on Beanes resume has been the Tim Hudson trade.
In 2004 Beane broke up the big three by trading both Mulder and Hudson. Hudson was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Juan Cruz, Dan Myer and Charles Thomas. None of these three players ever made an impact and Beane would have better off going the Zito route and taking the draft picks.
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All in all, If this doesn’t prove Beane is a brilliant baseball GM I don’t know what will. He has an uncanny ability to sell high on players (Hinske, Grieve, Berroa, Foulke, Koch and potentially Swisher)
Beane never saddles himself with bad contracts; instead he lets superstar (type A) free agents depart (Giambi, Tejada, Damon, Zito, Dye and Foulke) while netting him many first round picks.
Beane might have an ego and many people may not agree with his theory of SABER Metric Analysis but it’s pretty hard to argue with his results.
as seen on: http://www.3rdstringsafety.com/ [1]
