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Bball3345

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Acta Goes Against "The Book"

by Bball3345
created May 05, 2008, last edited February 10, 2009
6
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During Saturday’s Pirates-Nationals game, pitcher Matt Chico came to the plate with a runner on first (Paul Lo Duca) and one out. The score was 2-1 Nationals in the bottom of the second inning. Chico fouled off the first pitch swinging. The Pirates announcers were absolutely shocked that Chico was not bunting the runner up to second base. They could not imagine why anyone would even question making the call to bunt.


However, Manny Acta was displaying his knowledge of the game, instead of relying on “the book.” In order to show why this was a smart move by Acta, we will ironically turn to a book called, The Book, written by Tom Tango, amongst others. This book uses statistical tools to reevaluate “the book.” Gathering the rule from The Book, it states “With a pitcher at the plate with one out and a runner on first, only the worst-hitting pitchers should bunt, and even then, only about half the time.” Chico has a career batting average of.167, but this is with only 60 at bats. So, it would not have been a terrible move to bunt him, but swinging away was probably the more attractive option.


To break the rule down, the Run Expectancy for when a pitcher sacrifices in that situation is .326. On the other hand, when an average-hitting pitcher swings away, the RE is .354. With one of the worst-hitting pitchers swinging away the RE is .318, but rises to .325 if you account for the infielders being in. In other words, whether one of the worst-hitting pitchers bunts or swings, the outcome is about the same. Since Chico is better than the worst hitting pitchers, it would be better, on average, to have him swinging in this situation.


What was the outcome in real life? Chico showed bunt on the next couple pitches, taking them for balls. This kept the infield charging. On the fourth pitch, he sent a sharp grounder past Adam LaRoche at first base, placing runners on the corners with still only one out (a RE over 1.00). The Nationals left the inning up 5-1 and went on to a 9-8 victory. Kudos to Acta for going against “the book” and relying on The Book.

Cross-posted at my blog.

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Niteowl049AAA-er
553 days ago
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Chico is hitting better than he is pitching this season. Last I knew he was still trying to catch up with Zito for most losses in NL.
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KelsdadAll-Star
553 days ago
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As I mentioned here, most announcers don't understand the game well enough to make a legitmate argument to second guessing on field strategy as it is. I, for one, am not shocked the Pirates announcers were surprised, since they likely had no clue to what was happening in front of them.

The situation referred to clearly did not call for a sacrifice, for several reasons.

  • Batter/pitcher matchup: The pitcher in this situation was Paul Maholm, a soft tossing lefty. The batter, Matt Chico, is also a lefty. Pitchers usually don't take batting practice, therefore they don't often see alot of breaking stuff. It is much easier for a bad hitter to bunt a fastball than it is anything else. So, with a junkballer on the mound, the success rate for a sacrifice actually goes down.
  • The batter: Chico is considered a good hitting pitcher. As Tim mentioned, his career average is only .167, but with a runner on first it jumps to .333 (3-9). His career spray chart shows he pulls the ball on the ground and goes the opposite way in the air. A sure sign of a bad hitter, but the sign of a good hitting pitcher. Chico, however, is not a good bunter, so in both situations, swinging away is a better option.
  • The runner: The runner on first was Paul LoDuca, the catcher. LoDuca is considered a good runner for a catcher, however in the big picture is average at best. LoDuca is also recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery and was playing in only his 14th game of the season. Under normal game situations, it would take a perfect bunt to get LoDuca to second without a play. The last thing Acta wanted in this situation was a poor bunt by Chico resulting in a play at second where LoDuca would be required to slide, an unecessary situation for a player coming off an injury.
  • The situation: It was the second inning. The Nationals were up 2-1. Maholm had allowed hits to five of the first eight hitters. As a manager, you don't want to sacrifice an out against a pitcher you are pounding the crap out of. LaRoche was also playing in, even a decently struck pitch would get by him. And the hit was not "sharply" struck, it was hit slow enough as to allow an injured runner to reach third on the play.

So what you have is a lefty swinging, pull hitting pitcher against a junkballing lefty (easier to pull), who has failed to record an out against six of the eight previous hitters he has faced, against a defense set up to allow for hitting in the hole.

Looking at the situation, it would have been a shock if Chico did bunt. Acta did in fact go by, and relied on, "the book", as he should have.

He's likely never heard of the other one.
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Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User Bball3345 | May 5, 2008 | May 2008 | MLB Opinions | Washington Nationals Opinions | Matt Chico Opinions | Manny Acta Opinions | Paul Lo Duca Opinions

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