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About the Author

Davis21wylie
I'm a 23-year-old Georgia Tech grad who lives and dies with the Yellow Jackets, Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics. I'll also catch the odd Braves game now and then.

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2009 Major League Baseball Predictions

by Davis21wylie
created April 01, 2009, last edited September 30, 2009
17
Vote
Hey everybody, this is going to be short and sweet (unlike my typical monstrous previews) because I have to devote most of my blogging time to the site that's actually paying me, but I thought I should keep the streak going and, for the 4th straight year, record my surely-wrong projected MLB standings for posterity. As always, these were generated using computer-projected stats for every player, so it's not like I'm biased against any team or anything (Die, Yankees, Die!!!)... And this means that if your fave team looks bad, it's the cold hard numbers talking and you can feel free to write it off as such -- sometimes they get it right, sometimes they get it wrong, and there's always something to disagree with. Anyway, here are the projections:


Team Div Won Lost WPct
New York Yankees AL East 105.1 56.9 0.649
Boston Red Sox (WC) AL East 101.1 60.9 0.624
Tampa Bay Rays AL East 95.8 66.2 0.591
Toronto Blue Jays AL East 70.5 91.5 0.435
Baltimore Orioles AL East 69.5 92.5 0.429
Team Div Won Lost WPct
Cleveland Indians AL Central 88.7 73.3 0.548
Detroit Tigers AL Central 81.1 80.9 0.501
Minnesota Twins AL Central 80.2 81.8 0.495
Kansas City Royals AL Central 71.2 90.8 0.439
Chicago White Sox AL Central 69.9 92.1 0.432
Team Div Won Lost WPct
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim AL West 90.5 71.5 0.559
Oakland Athletics AL West 80.1 81.9 0.494
Seattle Mariners AL West 76.1 85.9 0.470
Texas Rangers AL West 66.1 95.9 0.408
Team Div Won Lost WPct
New York Mets NL East 92.7 69.3 0.572
Philadelphia Phillies (WC) NL East 89.8 72.2 0.554
Atlanta Braves NL East 88.8 73.2 0.548
Washington Nationals NL East 67.7 94.3 0.418
Florida Marlins NL East 67.4 94.6 0.416
Team Div Won Lost WPct
Chicago Cubs NL Central 97.3 64.7 0.601
St. Louis Cardinals NL Central 86.3 75.7 0.533
Milwaukee Brewers NL Central 82.6 79.4 0.510
Cincinnati Reds NL Central 76.5 85.5 0.472
Houston Astros NL Central 69.9 92.1 0.432
Pittsburgh Pirates NL Central 64.2 97.8 0.396
Team Div Won Lost WPct
Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 91.1 70.9 0.562
Arizona Diamondbacks NL West 85.8 76.2 0.530
San Francisco Giants NL West 77.6 84.4 0.479
Colorado Rockies NL West 77.0 85.0 0.475
San Diego Padres NL West 69.3 92.7 0.428

ALDS:
Yankees def. Indians
Red Sox def. Angels
ALCS:
Yankees def. Red Sox

NLDS:
Cubs def. Phillies
Mets def. Dodgers
NLCS:
Cubs def. Mets

World Series:
Cubs def. Yankees

NL MVP: Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Mets
NL Rookie: Cameron Maybin, Marlins

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore, Indians
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, Yankees
AL Rookie: Matt Wieters, Orioles

Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 1+-
And yes, the Plexiglas Principle hits the Rays this year. They'll have their day(s) in the sun very soon, though...
Permalink | Reply
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 1+-
The Mets won 89 games last year...basically they added K-Rod and JJ Putz and still have an enigma in left field and they only win 3 more games...

Again, pressure's on the mets here...if they didn't reach the level expected last year (92 wins) then the bar is only higher this year...And I think Putz himself (who'll be the closer by June) is worth more than 3 wins based on the 2008 Mets epic meltdowns

Also - The Cubs win the World Series? What's the posting date for this article?
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 3+-
Third time's the charm, Justin. I figured if the Phils could do it, anyone could!
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 1+-
Billy Goats and mini-Willy Penns everywhere!
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 0+-
If the Phils could do it, so could the Pirates. (snicker) Cubs... HA!!!
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 3+-
yeah! I can breath again. I was holding my breath hoping you'd pump some semblance of a forecast out and voila!

++D21Dub

I will have my (truly) monstrous preview and predictions refined and ready for publishing in a few days. And yes, while none of my teams have decimal place wins, the expected results of my professioanl guesses are quite different than these... (and GOD knows we'll both be wrong anyway).

If it's say...12,000 words or more (and very few graphics or charts) should I cut it into two parts (AL & NL) or just slap it all together anyway? Such a tough decision!
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 2+-
Sounds epic. As a veteran of these things, though, I find that graphics and charts sort of break up the monotony of black text on a white background. We don't like to admit it, but the 'net just ain't made for 10,000+ word screeds! Then again, there's never been anything monotonous about your writing style, so there's a good chance it doesn't even matter for you...



And this reminds me, I have an additional prediction to make: Manny's preview will call for more wins by the Rays than the Red Sox! (Going out on a limb here, I know). Neither of us take heed of the "Royals are this year's Rays" chatter, though, and have egg on our face when K.C. wins 95 games and loses in the World Series.

On second thought... Nah.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 0+-
Here's a tidbit - I didn't pick the Rays to win the world series. Or even the AL East. But they will win more games than the red Sox. That's not a prediction, just a fact to be. I made some VERY specific and somewhat bold predictions across the board...

Most people will just scan to their team of favor but if people don't read it because there's too many words and not enough pictures, then I say "Mission Accomplished!".

Besides, considering my 2008 Rays preview was close to 12,000 words (also remember that I never finished part 3 or it might have been 20k), this will seem like Dick and Jane next to War and Peace.

It's all about re-reading it in November... (or teasing you all season long when the opportunities arise)
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 1+-
Homerism aside, I think if Beckett and Ortiz are healthy and closer to their old selves than last year, we're a better team than Tampa. And if not, they're going to do what they did last year. But even with the injuries/ineffectiveness/etc., we still came within 2 runs of beating you guys in the ALCS. That fact alone should scare Rays fans.
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 1+-
Both Rays fans.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score -2+-
Yes, Rawb... I'm slapping both knees at that one too. Your jokes are so timeless. No matter how much time goes by, they never get funny.

No matter how much the Red Sox play like last year, every other team in the division DEFINITELY got better. Hell, the Rays got better just for the experince alone - plus one more year of development with the young talent. And no way in hell the Blue Jays only win 71 games... that's unpossible!

The Red Sox are sinking! The Red Sox are sinking! Alert the bandwagon! Save the pink hats and red footed onesies first!!!
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 1+-
Will the Angels ever beat the Red Sox in a playoff series?
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 0+-
Will the Red Sox ever beat the Yankees a second time?
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 3+-
Hey, fault NY for not giving us a chance... We've been waiting for them in the ALCS every year, but they just suck too much to get there. (And yes, I realize my prediction calls for just that. But the article is the space for measured, reasoned analysis... The comments are the place for unabashed homerism!!)
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 1+-
If they can make it to the LCS, we can beat them. Otherwise we'll have to wait.
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 3+-
Fair enough

Chase Utley, 2009 MVP...

and you can write that in Pen
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 3+-
Well, he did deserve the consideration more than Ryan Howard did last year...
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 1+-
Everything I've heard is his hip feels fine (according to him). If he can get off to the torrid pace he was at last year in April and May and stay healthy (no torn labrums and/or freak broken wrists) I'd say he's got a real big shot at it...
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score -5+-
"If"???

There's a lot of "if"s flying around.

If Sidney Ponson throws ten no-hitters this year, the Royals won't suck as bad.

If Derek Jeter moves to centerfield he won't have so many errors at short.

If Prince Fielder loses 100 lbs his triples will increase...

If...?

If you grow a set... make the bold prediction and stick it in our faces later, otherwise it's just "If I won the Lottery" talk.
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 2+-
Fair enough

Chase Utley, 2009 MVP...

and you can write that in Pen
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 3+-
Fair enough


Chase Utley, 2009 MVP...


and you can write that in Pen
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score -3+-
Yes, RAWB. I read the comment RAWB. (And then twice more again, thank you RAWB.) Then I read the next comment he made where he backed off with the "If he can". I'm not an idiot RAWB. I can read RAWB. I can follow an arc of logic without making it into a leap, RAWB. Please try to do the same, RAWB.

Sorry, I was finding a creative segue in order to shove a Sidney Ponson blows and Derek Jeter sucks and Prince Fielder is fat joke into the conversation. For fack's sake....

Why are so many of YOUR comments nitpicking about my comments needlessly? Do you think you're going to "wake me up" to your eye of the needle way of thinking? Are you going to "convert" me into someone like you?

PLEASE stop smelling my farts in hopes of finding shit.
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 2+-
Sorry for hurting your feelings.
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 3+-
large_phillies-world-series-trophy.JPG
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 1+-
hey wait...is that Chase Utley up there?

here's a statement without "if": The Phillies are the World "Fucking" Champions of Major League Baseball

If the Rays can make it to the World Series again, they might win it...
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score -3+-
Sure thing, RAWB. Whatever you say. You keep sniffing, I'm not wasting any more calories pretending to help you get over me. I only end up smelling like vinegar and water dealing with you. You keep on having your last word and your hilarious insights. Welcome to my ignore button.
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 2+-
p1_pedro_trophy_all.jpg
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 1+-
610x.jpg
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score -1+-
Nice prediction about the past, JuT... Ummm, is that an MVP trophy he's hoisting? No it isn't... PREdictions not POSTdictions.

IF the Phillies ever win another World Series it WON'T be in 2009. How about that?

Have fun fluffing each other's skirts, children. I'm done here -it's a useless waste of comments attempting to converse with narrow minded morons with slanted personal agendas.

I'm sorry I helped encourage the pollution of your article with my mere presence, D21Dub...
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 1+-
you mean "Cole Hamels Award" right?
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 5+-
Look, for once could you guys not pollute my article with your fucking bullshit feud? Everybody's tired of this shit. Every time both of you guys show up on the same thread, it eventually devolves into this same juvenile pissing contest. Enough is enough. If you can't comment without stoking the flames of this personal vendetta you have going with each other, then either shut the fuck up or go find somewhere else to argue.

Starting right now, I'm going to just delete any new comments that involve the Manny-vs-Rawb/Justin feud.
Permalink | Reply
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 2+-
"high road" in 5...4...
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 1+-
I was talking about baseball until Manny starting talking about me, but whatever.
Permalink
JuTMSY4Legend
235 days ago
Score 1+-
and there it is... man, you really can't make this stuff up...
Permalink
SSreportersLegend
235 days ago
Score 1+-
AhJeezNotThisShitAgain1.jpg
Permalink
SSreportersLegend
235 days ago
Score 1+-
I'm no baseball aficionado, but surely these simulations should recognize that nearly every year there's a 100 loss team. See: Seattle Mariners 2008
Permalink | Reply
SSreportersLegend
235 days ago
Score 0+-
It was in 2000 that no team finished with 100 losses (basically .400). It was also the only year in MLB that no team finished above .600 either.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 1+-
You better look again. All the way back to 2007...
Permalink
SSreportersLegend
235 days ago
Score 0+-
And on that note I'll get my coat and walk out of this thread.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 0+-
Parity = Hilarity I don't see the Mariners losing 100 games this season. But I am predicting 3 other teams to do so.
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #1
235 days ago
Score 3+-
Since the comments are the place for homerism...
  • David Wright or Carlos Beltran will win the MVP (probably Wright, since the stuff Beltran does somehow flies under the radar).
  • Johan Santana will win 21 games and the Cy Young Award.
  • J.J. Putz will win Comeback Player of the Year.
  • The Mets will win 102 games and the World Series.


Too much?
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 2+-
I actually don't think any of that is too far-fetched. Then again, I've been high on the Mets for 3 years now, and look where that's gotten them... Proceed with caution.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
235 days ago
Score 1+-
Damn you, Anon Damn you to Hell! (You'll see why in a few days)
Permalink
Tmil42AAA-er
235 days ago
Score 3+-
It shouldn't be too far-fetched. After all, I'm a pretty reasonable guy.
Permalink
Tmil42AAA-er
235 days ago
Score 1+-
Except for the times I forget to sign in, of course.
Permalink
False ProphetAll-Star
235 days ago
Score 1+-
Davis - care to elaborate on the Twins prediction? I'm going to take a guess and say that according to your formula, the 2008 twins overachieved by a significant margin? Because otherwise, I'm not exactly sure how having a healthy bullpen + liriano for a full season + crede = 8 game regression under any metric
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
235 days ago
Score 0+-
Really significant. They "should" have won 80 games last year based on their raw numbers, but because of unusually good clutch hitting they managed to score 54 more runs than they would have been expected, and their pitchers scattered hits to save an extra 40 runs vs. expected (sadly, neither is really a repeatable feat). They could win as many as 85 if things break their way again, but most likely they're going to see a big regression offensively, and Liriano '09 is simply not going to be Liriano '06. In other words, 80 wins in 2009 would actually represent the status quo when you compare to their legitimate (luck-independent) performance last season.
Permalink
False ProphetAll-Star
235 days ago
Score 0+-
ahh, makes sense then...
Permalink
Jay100Soccer Kid
235 days ago
Score 0+-
Im just happy someone said the Jays will win more then 71 games. I think the AL east is gonna beat eachother and the orioles so bad that the wild card might not come out of it...But hell 3 out of the five teams they might beat the piss out of everyone else and whoever comes out of there alive are the world champions.
Permalink | Reply
False ProphetAll-Star
235 days ago
Score 2+-
oh and btw, I didn't know you wrote for basketball reference. That's pretty sweet davis
Permalink | Reply
Anonymous Fanatic #2
231 days ago
Score 1+-
YES GO CUBBIES WE NEED THIS
Permalink | Reply
Anonymous Fanatic #3
229 days ago
Score 0+-
Great picks, I pretty much agree with them except I have the Cardinals winning the NL Central. I’m looking forward to this year’s season, should be another good one. I made a top ten list of my projections for the regular season results: http://www.t...gular+season. I think my picks are solid, if you don’t agree you can actually change the order by voting.
Permalink | Reply
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Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User Davis21wylie | April 1, 2009 | April 2009 | MLB Opinions | Baseball Opinions | Major League Baseball Opinions | American League Opinions | New York Yankees Opinions | Minnesota Twins Opinions | Chicago White Sox Opinions | Kansas City Royals Opinions | Cleveland Indians Opinions | Detroit Tigers Opinions | Seattle Mariners Opinions | Texas Rangers Opinions | Los Angeles Angels Opinions | Boston Red Sox Opinions | Tampa Bay Rays Opinions | Baltimore Orioles Opinions | World Series Opinions | Oakland Athletics Opinions | 2009 MLB Preview | National League Opinions | Atlanta Braves Opinions | New York Mets Opinions | Philadelphia Phillies Opinions | Florida Marlins Opinions | Washington Nationals Opinions | St. Louis Cardinals Opinions | Chicago Cubs Opinions | Milwaukee Brewers Opinions | Houston Astros Opinions | Pittsburgh Pirates Opinions | Cincinnati Reds Opinions | San Diego Padres Opinions | Los Angeles Dodgers Opinions | Arizona Diamondbacks Opinions | San Francisco Giants Opinions | Colorado Rockies Opinions

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