All outs are NOT created equal - the Strikeout rebuttal.
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by user Manny Stiles
You "moneyball" kids are funny. Stats say stats are the most statistically important statistical part of baseball.
Baseball is the most wonderful, unique game in the world (at least to me).
And NO, this doesn't need to be a showdown, because I will end the argument now.
| The Strikeout Debate |
| Award Race: August 28 |
| Why Strikeouts Do Matter |
| All outs are NOT created equal - the Strikeout rebuttal. |
| Why Strikeouts Do Matter: Going Deeper |
Baseball is played on dirt and grass, not on a calculator or spreadsheet
My rebuttal to...this... Strikeout pitchers DO NOT tend to be 'control pitchers', Strikeouts are NOT paramount to a pitcher's success. GOOD to GREAT pitchers LEARN control, regardless of their K ratios. And GREAT pitchers just get guys out. Period.
It's great that you took the last three years' stats to devise your argument, since strikeouts/at bat are higher than ever...
Here, let's look at active career K/BB ratios coming into the season and you tell me if power pitchers are the common theme amongst true 'control pitchers'...
Oh yeah, There's a bunch of knuckleballers that struck out guys in voluminous amounts, too. NO ONE will ever confuse a knuckleballer for a 'control pitcher'.
My point was great pitchers get strikeouts on pitches that aren't strikes and they get groundouts/pop ups on pitches that ARE strikes (see Greg Maddux #13 on the all-time K list - would you call him a 'strikeout pitcher'?). That's what makes them GREAT pitchers, not 'strikeout pitchers'. But they also get double play groundouts when they need them too.
Take a look at this list career K's/9. Sure the First 6-7 guys were all badass pitchers in every category, but then the list starts to go DOWNHILL from there... Hideo Nomo? Dan Plesac? Eric (Ker) Plunk? Would you take ANY of those guys over a sinkerball pitcher like Brandon Webb that gets 3 ground balls to every flyball?
No One has EVER struck out all 27 in a MLB game
So what happens when a strikeout pitcher, usually a guy that throws some strikes (obviously) DOESN'T strike out a batter?
Pitches thrown hard do seem to get hit A LONG WAY! (I've given up Home Runs that still haven't landed)
If you want to stick to a good argument try WHIP/9, since baserunners are more important for a pitcher to 'control' ERA, affects the scores of games and who wins/loses more than strikeouts. But even WHIP/9 has some holes as a statistical analysis tool. it doesn't take into account what the baserunners do. Do they distract the pitcher? Do they execute the hit and run well? Do they go 1st to 3rd, take extra bases on throws or score on a groundball to the left side? (Where's the webpage with these stats, Beanecounters?)
Your argument that strikeout pitchers make it easier for fielders is FLAT WRONG.
I have pesonal life experience to prove this.
Check out how many UNearned runs pitchers with high K/9 end up with. Granted it has alot to do with your team, but have you noticed a movement with the Statheads in baseball to put better fielders on the diamond, regardless of how much they strike out as batters? They still make more putouts than strikeouts. Give away less outs and your team will win more often than lose, guaranteed.
When I was a pitcher, I struck out a LOT of batters and had high pitch counts because you can't just throw strikes to strike batters out, you have to get them to chase pitches as well.
But do you know what happened during these high pitch count at-bats? The fielders fell into the lull of waiting for me to strikeout EVERY batter, then when the ball does get put into play, they were caught off guard, or the ball was hit so hard, they couldn't field it cleanly... errors galore. When my buddy who threw puss pitched (for the same team/fielders) the fielders KNEW they had to make plays, so they were ready to make plays. I led my league in Unearned runs every year.
Keep in mind this simple baseball adage that sums up the entire game
I believe Warren Spahn is credited with this, but it's probably older than him...Great Hitting is timing, Great Pitching is disrupting timing.
(My favorite pitch ever is the 3-2 changeup.)
That's my argument about K's... they're 'sexy' (the cliche of 2006), fans love 'em, no one puts FC's up instead of K's inside the stadium, but they're just 1/27th of a 9 inning victory (most of the time)
What out is most effective?
As far as what is the MOST effective out... I would argue it is the Infield Fly rule, no one reaches base, no one can advance. Doesn't get any cleaner than that, my friends.
Second - Foul Pop Out. There is NO way a batter can EVER reach base on a caught foul ball. Even if the fielder drops it... just a foul ball.
Third - Fan interference - Fan reaches ino the field of play, automatic out and no one can advance (a call that gets blown more than any other - Jeffrey Maier, Steve Bartman) Oh, yeah the Diamondbacks LOST a game on a fan interfence the other day.
Then there's runner's interference, runner getting hit by a batted ball, a pickoff (requires NO pitch!), how's about caught stealing? that's a good one! If a runner runs into or passes another runner on the basepaths, etc..
A line out double/triple play (gets TWO or THREE outs in ONE play, amazing!) to an infielder, ground ball double play on and on...
I feel safe saying, these types of outs matter more than the strikeout.
Yes, strikeouts get batters out. But they aren't as important to a pitcher's success as you think... how many bases have been stolen on a 3rd strike? How many guys reach base on a 3rd strike wild pitch?
Strikeouts require more pitches, not just all fastballs either, so they wear out pitcher's arms faster as well. (Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Pedro Martinez, on and on) So I ask you are strikeouts REALLY worth more?
Tommy John was somewhat a strikeout pitcher before his infamous surgery, yet he went on to powder puff his way to a pretty lengthy career by NOT relying on the strikeout... Jamie Moyer is a pretty soft tosser, Frank Tanana was a pretty effective change of pace pitcher...Al Leiter, Kenny Rogers on and on.. successs can be had without the Strikeout (unless your name is Russ Ortiz, hee hee).
I'm not suggesting a pitcher is ever going to record 20 pop outs in a game or throw a 27 pitch perfect game, but pound-for-pound, there are BETTER ways to see how good a pitcher is than by looking at strikeouts. Otherwise, it would be the Nolan Ryan Award, not the Cy Young Award (Funny how Nolan Ryan never won the Cy, maybe it's because baseball writers used to know baseball first, journalism second and they kept the K in perspective)
To sum it up, it's more important to throw strikes than strikeouts.
Sometimes I wonder if some of you ever played the game of baseball/softball/wiffle ball/tee ball (other than on a video console, where the things that happen in real life don't happen).
Date
Wed 08/30/06, 7:26 am EST
