Alex Holowczak vs. Davis21wylie NHL Playoff Predictions: Round Two
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by users Davis21wylie and Alex Holowczak
Introduction
Neil says: Welcome back, hockey fans! In case you missed it last time, Alex Holowczak and I are having a little challenge to decide who really knows hockey best. Here's how it works: Alex is making his picks based on his intuition; mine are based on a statistical method called the Pythagorean Formula. For every correct series winner picked, we get one point, and if we pick the right number of games, it's worth another bonus point. In the first round, we each picked seven of the eight series correctly, and got two in the right number of games, resulting in a tie at 9 points apiece. Now, we grow our playoff beards longer, and press onward into the second round! Who will win AGM's version of the Stanley Cup? Only time will tell...
Round One Standings --------------------- Alex 9 Pts Neil 9 Pts
Before the picks, though, I'll unveil my NHL Power Rankings, updated to include data from the first round. Like last time, using the Pythagorean Formula I derived a "true winning percentage" for every team in the NHL in 2006-07. I then adjusted for each team's strength of schedule, and -- voilà! -- Power rankings! Here are the current numbers:
Armed with these "true winning percentages," I can use them to construct the probability of any team beating any other team, using something called the log5 formula. Using that formula and some combinatorics, I can also derive the probability that either team in a series matchup will win 4 games first, as well as the most likely number of games in which that outcome will occur. Math is awesome, isn't it?
So, here we go. I'm pleased to present our predictions and probabilities for Round Two of the 2007 NHL Playoffs...
Conference Semifinals
Alex says: This was a lot harder than the First Round. The matchups are more even on paper, and there are a lot of close run contests. This could be the round I deviate from Davis21wylie.
Western Conference
Detroit Red Wings v San Jose Sharks
Alex says: The Wings struggled past the Flames, whereas the Sharks strolled past the Predators. As a Wings fan I will go for them, but I can see San Jose being a tough opponent. They have two good goalies in Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala, but Dominik Hasek is a match for them on his own. The Wings have the better defense by far too, and should do well against Jonathan Cheechoo and Patrick Marleau. I would still rather have Todd Bertuzzi, Pavel Datsyuk, Robert Lang and Henrik Zetterberg as well as a better defense.
Decision: Red Wings in 6.
Neil says: Boy, the Red Wings probably wish they were facing Dallas here instead of San Jose. The Sharks are big and physical, and boast a group of forwards few teams can match -- Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Bill Guerin, Jonathan Cheechoo, etc. Detroit believes that they are one of those teams, however, thanks to the deadly trio of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Todd Bertuzzi, as well as Nicklas Lidstrom (why is this guy not mentioned in MVP talks?) and a top-flight defence corps that can hold their own against San Jose's bruising offensive attack. Up front, I'm going to say that this will be an amazing series (maybe the best we'll see all playoffs long), but I think Detroit will prevail in the end, thanks to their superior D and general talent edge. Whoever wins, though, this one is going to be a lot of fun to watch play out.
Decision: Red Wings in 7.
Anaheim Ducks v Vancouver Canucks
Alex says: The Ducks have a strong team with Teemu Selanne leading them. They have a super Defense in Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger. Jean-Sebastien Giguere is a good goalie too. The Canucks have the two Sedins as well as Roberto Luongo, who was inspired in the playoffs. They too have a strong D, but it isn’t as good as the Ducks. I saw the Stars beating them before, and I think they may benefit from their game 7 experience. Defense often comes out on top in playoffs.
Decision: Canucks in 7.
Neil says: Aha! We differ! Face it, Vancouver was lucky to survive the Stars in Round One -- they were a Mike Modano crossbar away from going to overtime in Game 7 vs. Dallas, and if it hadn't been for Roberto Luongo's heroics, they wouldn't have even gotten that far. Meanwhile, in their first-round matchup, Anaheim methodically dismantled a Minnesota team that was fairly well-regarded going into the series. Make no mistake, this Canucks team is a solid group, and Luongo could steal a game here or there, but they aren't really good enough to give Chris Pronger and the Ducks a serious scare in this series. You have to go with Anaheim here.
Decision: Ducks in 5.
Eastern Conference
Buffalo Sabres v New York Rangers
Alex says: The Number 1 seeds dominated the Isles, as did the Rangers over the Thrashers. This could very well be an equalish contest. I rate Lundqvist above Miller, but I think the Sabres have better offense. The Rangers have the better defense. It will be interesting to see who prevails, but I have to go with the Sabres based on their season performances. I think the Rangers could push them close though.
Decision: Sabres in 6.
Neil says: Had this matchup come on the heels of the regular season, New York would have looked completely overmatched against their upstate rivals... but their 4-game demolition of Atlanta should give pause to anyone expecting the Rangers to lie down and play dead in round two. This series should be a study in contrast: the super-deep Sabres' forwards love to blaze up and down the ice and create goals by the bushel, while New York (despite the presence of offensive savants Jaromir Jagr and, to a lesser degree, Michael Nylander) plays a tight-checking style that dares the opponent to beat Henrik Lundqvist. The cliché is that defense wins championships -- and certainly the Broadway Blueshirts have the edge in that department -- but the plain truth is that Buffalo's offense is too good to discount, even against a hot goalie like The King. NY will make it closer than you'd think, but I think the Sabres will ultimately edge their cross-state foes.
Decision: Sabres in 7.
New Jersey Devils v Ottawa Senators
Alex says: The Devils have three top players in Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez and Martin Brodeur, but I rate Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza above them. Ray Emery is a good goalie too, and they were more impressive in Round 1 than the Devils. I think the Senators have better depth, and I think that could be an important part of their performance.
Decision: Senators in 6.
Neil says: This is one of those Déjà Vu series, a rematch of the 2003 Eastern Conference Finals, complete with a few of the key names and faces (Martin Brodeur, Daniel Alfredsson, Wade Redden, etc.) still intact. That year, of course, New Jersey topped the higher-seeded Sens in seven games en route to a Stanley Cup championship, and history may very well repeat itself in '07 -- but not in the way the Devils would like. You see, thanks to the fact that Ottawa lost the Northeast to Buffalo and had fewer regular season points than NJ, the Devils are seeded higher than the Senators and will have home-ice in this matchup. But the more telling numbers say that Ottawa is far and away a better team than New Jersey: their goal differential (as measured by the Pythagorean Formula, the single best predictor of future success) vastly outpaces New Jersey's, and they have played a far more difficult schedule than the Devils to boot. Add it up, and it looks like Ottawa will be the ones knocking off their higher-seeded opponents this time around... maybe en route to a Stanley Cup of their own.
Decision: Senators in 6.
Well, those are our picks. As always, we hope you enjoyed reading them, and be sure to stay tuned for more updates on our challenge. Until next time, enjoy the action on ice!
See also:
- 2006-07 Leaders in Goals Created
- 2006-07 Behindthenet/Davis21wylie Player Rankings (sorted by team)
- 2006-07 Behindthenet/Davis21wylie Player Rankings (sorted by rating)
