Alex Holowczak vs. Davis21wylie NHL Playoff Predictions: Round One
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by users Davis21wylie and Alex Holowczak
Introduction
Alex says: This is a challenge between myself and Davis21wylie, my knowledge against his formulae and statistics and mathematics (sound familiar?). I have a good history of NHL Knowledge, just yesterday I won the ArmchairGM Fantasy Hockey League after a 10-4 win in the Final. Just look at my team:
- Philippe Boucher
- Michael Cammalleri
- Zdeno Chara
- Jean-Sebastien Giguere
- Jaromir Jagr
- Vincent Lecavalier
- Bryan McCabe
- Evgeni Nabokov
- Shane O'Brien
- Alexander Ovechkin
- Teemu Selanne
- Alexander Semin
- Eric Staal
- Thomas Vanek
- Ryan Whitney
Not bad for a 10 team League! Every player played a role, but my success revolved around two great goalies, Giguere having his best season in his career certainly helped. Also, huge points scorers on my team were useful - players that broke out this year like Semin, Boucher, Vanek and Whitney certainly helped. I picked each of them up early in the season with Free Agency - the rest of the League was a bit asleep. I also had Erik Cole and Alexei Yashin before they got injured and I replaced them. Even O'Brien, offensively the worst, was one of the biggest checkers in the League, contributing useful points. Lecavalier was insane, and won lots of faceoffs to help there too. I traded Jere Lehtinen and a few others in a classic Playstation trick - trade two or three of my okay players for one star, i.e. Jaromir Jagr. I then picked up Thomas Vanek and Evgeni Nabokov in Free Agency (I traded Henrik Lundqvist as trade weight - not bad considering his bad start to the season.
So I have a good history of knowing what's going on in the NHL, and predicting who will do well, so hopefully my win in the ArmchairGM League (that included Mr Davis21wylie) will stand me in good stead for the forthcoming challenge.
I gain most of my knowledge for the forthcoming predictions by watching the wonderful NHL.com highlights on YouTube - an example that all sports should follow. I also based it upon NHL '06, comparing players ability. I did look at NHL.com only for a brief look at the statistics, i.e. points and +- for the sake of making the argument. I didn't go into the depths that Davis21wylie will no doubt plunge. NHL.com was most useful for the spellings of a lot of these people, the NHL's foreign legion contributing to laughable spelling errors. I made every effort to spell the names correctly, knowing the annoyance of having my name spelt incorrectly...
Still, enjoy reading our predictions. Remember what I said about links in articles being useful for Hall of Fame voting? Bear that in mind!
Neil says: What he said. The formula I'll be using for my ratings should be familiar to most of you by now: it's the Pythagorean Win Expectancy formula I have used for football and baseball, except this time I've applied it to hockey -- and it still works! In fact, I'll let Marc Foster and Chris Apple of SI.com introduce the method for me, since they tested it out a while ago...
"Bill James, the Dean of Sabermetrics, has a simple tool to measure if a team over- or under-achieved for a given season based on the total runs scored and allowed. Ideally, a team that scores 800 runs and allows 800 runs should finish with a winning percentage at exactly .500. But what about teams who score 850 and allow 700? James came up with the following equation to handle this:
Pythagorean Winning Percentage = (RF^2)/((RF^2) + (RA^2))
RF = runs scored; RA = runs allowed.
Conveniently, the same equation works just as well for hockey. We can substitute runs for goals to nearly the same effect, giving us:
Pythagorean Winning Percentage = (GF^2)/((GF^2) + (GA^2))
GF = goals scored; GA = goals allowed.
There is one small difference, however. Depending upon the era, adjustments need to be made to the exponential factor. In the early days of hockey (prior to 1942), when scoring was at a premium and the best goalies recorded shutouts nearly every other game, the factor is 1.63. In the Original Six era (1942-67), the final factor used is 1.92. In the Era of Expansion (from 1967 to present), 2.03 minimizes the total error, but is close enough to 2.0 to use the latter for everyday use."
Neat, huh? Using the Pythagorean Formula, I derived a "true winning percentage" for every team in the NHL in 2006-07. I then adjusted for each team's strength of schedule, and voilà! Power rankings! Here are the final numbers:
I should note that the NHL's (stupid) imbalanced schedule would present a problem here, except for the fact that SOS accounts for both opponents' winning % and opponents' opponents' W%, so teams in weak divisions can't inflate their rating by playing a bunch of horrible teams.
Armed with our "true winning percentages," we can now use them to construct the probability of any team beating any other team, using something called the log5 formula. Not to belabor the details, but the log5 formula goes like this:
A - A * B
WPct = -----------------
A + B - 2 * A * B
... where A is team A's winning percentage and B is team B's winning percentage. Since the home-ice advantage for the NHL in 2006-07 was roughly 4.5%, we can incorporate that information into log5 thusly:
A * (1 - B) * H
WPct = -------------------------------------------
(A * (1 - B) * H) + ((1 - A) * B * (1 - H))
... where H is how often the league's teams win on home ice. Using these single-game probabilities, we can calculate each team's odds of winning a 7-game series as well. Mercifully, I'll spare you the mechanics of it, especially since this site can go through the calculations for you, but suffice to say that the end result is the probability that either team in a series matchup will win 4 games first, as well as the most likely number of games in which that outcome will occur. Math is awesome, isn't it?
So, without further ado, here are our predictions and probabilities for Round One of the 2007 NHL Playoffs...
Western Conference
Detroit Red Wings v Calgary Flames
Alex says: I can’t help but think my beloved Wings got the better of this – the stumbling Flames took too long to secure their place at the Avs expense this past week. The Flames look out of form, whereas Todd Bertuzzi’s addition to the Wings squad has helped them clear of the Nashville Predators – who gained no less than Peter Forsberg – to claim the Central division. They missed out on the Presidents’, but they should sprint past the Flames over the next fortnight. The Wings have fallen to teams in form in the past at the first hurdle, but I can’t see it this time. Jarome Iginla, Miikka Kiprusoff and Alex Tanguay are good enough to steal one game, but a side with the likes of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Dominik Hasek, Nicklas Lidstrom and now Todd Bertuzzi should really ease through this series.
Decision: Red Wings in 5.
Neil says: Yeah, I gotta go with Detroit in this series, although it's a closer matchup than you might expect from a 1-vs.-8 showdown. In the end, though, Detroit simply has too much offensive firepower for Calgary's defense to handle, despite Miikka Kiprusoff's best efforts. Pavel Datsyuk and (pending health) Henrik Zetterberg are due for huge playoff performances, while Todd Bertuzzi's addition toughened up the Wings a lil' bit, which will definitely come in handy in the postseason. You have to take Detroit in this series.
Decision: Red Wings in 5.
Anaheim Ducks v Minnesota Wild
Alex says: Teemu Selanne is one of my favourite NHL players, and I’m delighted he’s refound his early career form. They have the best defensive line in the NHL bar none in Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. My only concern is the fitness of Jean-Sebastien Giguere. When he’s played he’s been phenomenal, but Ilya Bryzgalov has needed to fill in a lot. I think like the Red Wings, the Anaheim Goalies have benefited from the defense in front of them. As for the Wild – Marian Gaborik’s been on form lately, and Pavol Demitra and Brian Rolston are good players, but none have the class that the Anaheim players I mentioned have. I see the Ducks winning easily. Niklas Backstrom has been excellent, and I can see the Wild being good defensively, but I can’t see their offense getting on top of Pronger and Niedermayer too often.
Decision: Ducks in 6.
Neil says: Another close call for a 2-vs.-7 series, mainly because the Wild are an awesome defensive club. However, Minny has got some issues: their offense, never the best during the regular season (although they were missing Gaborik for some time), will have to go through Pronger, Niedermayer, and Co. -- never a fun proposition. Oh, and the Wild also have a potential controversy in goal, since Niklas Backstrom hasn't played a postseason game, and Manny Fernandez proved himself in the "Second Season" several years ago; a few slip-ups by the former, and Jacques Lemaire might be tempted to pencil Fernandez in as starter. But those are minor subplots, really -- the major one is that Anaheim is too balanced and well-rounded to lose at this stage in the game. Count on a Wild series, but ultimately go with the Ducks. Quack!
Decision: Ducks in 7.
Vancouver Canucks v Dallas Stars
Alex says: The Canucks have benefited from the breakout year of the Sedin brothers. Markus Naslund is a great player to have with the two young guns, and they could be a constant offensive threat. Sami Salo and Mathias Ohlund have always been good in defense, and Kevin Bieksa has stepped up this season. Roberto Luongo must be feeling the 76 games he played this season – although admittedly he was excellent in each and every one of them. He has the ability to carry the Canucks. It will be interesting to see how he does against Marty Turco, who seems to have competition from his backup, who has had a career year. The Dallas offense has not the stars that the Canucks have. Mike Ribeiro and Ladislav Nagy have been good, and now Mike Modano is playing well again they have a great playmaker at the heart of it. The same applies to Brendan Morrow. They also have the experience of Eric Lindros to call upon, as well as the fresh talent of Jussi Jokinen. The defense is good too, with Sergei Zubov, Philippe Boucher and Darryl Sydor on form this season. They are the better team on paper.
Decision: Stars in 6.
Neil says: Like Alex said, on paper, Dallas is the better team in this matchup, as their D is absolutely stellar, and they can match up favorably with Vancouver offensively. But, let's face it, this series will come down to two guys: Marty Turco and Roberto Luongo... Luongo has been nothing short of amazing all season long, and seems to have the ability to single-handedly carry a team, a huge advantage for team to possess in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Turco has a checkered playoff past, and as a result, he will be under intense scrutiny by the media throughout this series. Can he finally silence the doubters? In a word, yes. I think Luongo is great, but I think Dallas' superior depth will give Turco the support he needs to prevail in this matchup, provided Dallas can close it out at home in Game Six.
Decision: Stars in 6.
Nashville Predators v San Jose Sharks
Alex says: The Predators have been contenders this season. Steve Sullivan has been as good as ever, and Paul Kariya, David Legwand and Jean-Pierre Dumont have been superb too. Peter Forsberg was a huge player to gain for a charge at this season’s playoffs. Their defense is solid, Shea Weber and Kimmo Timonen are ably backed up by the likes of Marek Zidlicky. Tomas Vokoun or Chris Mason? I don’t know who will emerge as Number 1, but it makes no difference as they are both excellent. San Jose has the same problem, Vesa Toskala or Evgeni Nabokov? Nabokov appears to have emerged lately, but again both are brilliant. The Sharks lines are excellent too, two great centres in Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, and good wingers in Jonathan Cheechoo, Milan Michalek and Bill Guerin. Matthew Carle leads the defense. This is a difficult one to call, the teams are very evenly matched.
Decision: Sharks in 7.
Neil says: Nashville has worked all season for the chance to avenge their first-round loss to San Jose a year ago, even going so far as to acquire proven Cup winner and all-around dynamo Peter Forsberg at midseason, just to ensure a happier result this spring. But because they allowed Detroit to take the Central, they have the misfortune of drawing a tough San Jose team again in Round 1. Some teams have all the bad luck, right? The Sharks are a terrific team at both ends, they're led by maybe a two-time MVP of the league (Joe Thornton), and even though the Preds have home-ice, San Jose will edge them out in this matchup unless they can extend it to a seventh game at home. Sadly, it looks like Nashville's season is ending prematurely again.
Decision: Sharks in 6.
Eastern Conference
Buffalo Sabres v New York Islanders
Alex says: The Sabres won the Presidents’ and have nobody to fear. Daniel Briere has developed into a great player, and has Austria’s best ever player outside him in Thomas Vanek. Chris Drury and Dainius Zubrus have been good, and Derek Roy has come from nowhere to be a top offensive producer. Maxim Afinogenov has been injured, but averaged more than 1 point per game. Brian Campbell and Teppo Numminen are stars on the defense too. Drew Stafford has been in great form lately too. Ryan Miller has been good in goal, but he is arguably the Sabres biggest weakness should they face a good offense. The Islanders sneaked in on the last day with a win over Number 2 seeds the Devils. Ryan Smyth was a big player to gain this season, and along with Jason Blake, Miroslav Satan and a player I like Alexei Yashin, they have a good offense (not to mention Mike Sillinger and Viktor Kozlov. On defense, Marc-Andre Bergeron and Tom Poti are good offensively, but have a dodgy +-. Wide Wade Dubielewicz at Number 2 to Rick DiPietro, the goaltending is good. But DiPietro is injured, for an unknown length of time, which could kill the Isles.
Decision: Sabres in 5.
Neil says: New York barely got into the playoffs with a great escape on Sunday vs. New Jersey, but that was the easy part... Now they'll face Buffalo, a team that has been gunning for the top slot in the NHL all season thanks to an unbelievable offense and a good-enough D. While the Isles could have won on any given night with Rick DiPietro, he's now injured -- and it will be a very tall order to take four games against the swift, deep Sabres with Wade Dubielewicz in net. No way does Buffalo lose this series.
Decision: Sabres in 5.
New Jersey Devils v Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex says: Martin Brodeur is the best goalie in the NHL, and he’ll need to be. The defense is ably led by Brian Rafalski, but after him any Paul Martin, there’s not a lot there. Patrik Elias, Zach Parise and Scott Gomez are all good players, and Jamie Langenbrunner and Brian Gionta can provide assistance, but the side lacks depth. Dan Boyle and Filip Kuba have been inspired on the Lightning defense, and with two 100 point scorers in Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier, the Lightning could find easy pickings against the Devils defense. Brad Richards and Vaclav Prospal will also add offensive threat. But Prospal has a hugely negative +-. Defensively, the Lightning struggle. Since they got rid of Nikolai Khabibulin, they have poor goalies in Johan Holmqvist and Marc Denis. The strengths are the Devils D and the Lightning offense, and the D normally comes out on top in playoff matches. The weaker Devils offense should find it easier against the Lightning.
Decision: Devils in 5.
Neil says: Tampa does have a dynamic offense, don't they? With St. Louis, Lecavalier, Vinny Prospal, and offensive D-man Dan Boyle, the Lightning are certainly a dangerous team in their opponent's end... It's just too bad that they have a habit of endangering themselves in their own end. Let's face it, Tampa's not a good defensive team, a shortcoming compounded by the fact that their goaltending has been bad all season. What's more, they're facing one of the NHL's best defensive teams, and definitely the best goalie in hockey. So there goes the Bolts' main strength, their offense. Bottom line is, Tampa is overhyped and overrated, so even with some key Devils nicked up, this series shouldn't last long. Go with Jersey.
Decision: Devils in 5.
Atlanta Thrashers v New York Rangers
Alex says: Marian Hossa has been inspired for Atlanta this year, and a former Wing Vyacheslav Kozlov has been up there too along with the ever brilliant Ilya Kovalchuk. Keith Tkachuk adds offensive grit and power. Defensively, Kari Lehtonen has been decent but frail at times, and Alexei Zhitnik is the star on an otherwise suspect defense. Suspect defenses aren’t what you want when you’re facing Jaromir Jagr. Michael Nylander, Martin Straka and another former Wing, Brendan Shanahan contribute offensively. Sean Avery is a jack of all trades, and whilst a master at none, he’s not far off. Marek Malik has a brilliant +- at 32, and has been a favourite in Madison Square Garden ever since the between the legs penalty shot. The strong D is backed up by Henrik Lundqvist, who had an eye problem last year in the playoffs, but you’d fancy him over Lehtonen. I think the Rangers will win the series, as their defense puts them on top.
Decision: Rangers in 6.
Neil says: As a fairly big Thrashers fan, the following paragraph is hard to type. But... Atlanta just flat-out ain't that good, at least not by the standards of the other teams in the playoffs. They're not bad or anything, but they really aren't on par with the other top seeds -- or the Rangers, for that matter. NY boasts a solid D that can shut down Atlanta's top forwards, plus a very good goalie in King Lundqvist; meanwhile, Jagr and Co. will be able to score on Kari Lehtonen, especially on the power play (let's just say Atlanta has some special teams issues). I do think the two teams are somewhat evenly-matched, but Atlanta is too inconsistent to prevail in a seven-game affair, even with home-ice on their side. I'm taking New York.
Decision: Rangers in 6.
Ottawa Senators v Pittsburgh Penguins
Alex says: Since losing Dominik Hasek, Ray Emery has stepped into the breach well, backed up by Swiss Martin Gerber. But then, their D boasts Joe Corvo, Wade Redden and Tom Preissing. And with Dany Heatley scoring 100 points, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson on the ice, the side look formidable on paper. Mike Fisher and Mike Comrie have been useful too. Conversely, Pittsburgh is a one line team. Sidney Crosby has been the best player in the NHL this season, but Evgeni Malkin, Mark Recchi, Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney make up a great first line. Jordan Staal has been good too. Their goalies are a bit weak, as Marc-Andre Fleury and Jocelyn Thibault have both been susceptible at times. Ottawa are deeper and have better goalkeeping, so I go with them.
Decision: Senators in 5.
Neil says: Those wacky Senators! Always a vogue pick to go deep into the playoffs, Ottawa has never quite delivered on their promise in the postseason, flaming out early on too many occasions to mention. Still, you gotta play the percentages, and they really look to favor the balanced Sens in this matchup. Yeah, Sid the Kid rocks, and Malkin is great, too (on offense, at least)... But Ottawa has some serious goods of their own -- Daniel Alfredsson, Dany Heatley, Wade Redden, Jason Spezza, Tom Preissing (my favorite player!), etc. In the end, Pittsburgh may be the darlings of the New NHL, but 2007 is Ottawa's turn to shine in the playoffs. Look for them to topple the Pens en route to (maybe) a Cup title.
Decision: Senators in 5.
Well, those are our picks. We hope you enjoyed reading them, and be sure to stay tuned for updates on our challenge. Until next time, enjoy the Coolest Game on Earth!
See also:
- 2006-07 Leaders in Goals Created
- 2006-07 Behindthenet/Davis21wylie Player Rankings (sorted by team)
- 2006-07 Behindthenet/Davis21wylie Player Rankings (sorted by rating)
