Albert Pujols: Hall of Fame Credentials
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
An earlier article by another user called Is Pujols Already HOF-Worthy? argued Albert Pujols has done enough to earn a spot in Cooperstown. According to them, even if Pujols were to retire today, a plaque should be placed in the Hall of Fame for him.
Baseball Prospectus developed an interesting way to guage a player's career, known as JAWS. It uses the combination of a player's peak years, which in this case we will be using five consecutive seasons and the player's career value. WARP, another BP stat, is used. WARP stands for Wins Above Replacement Player and accounts for every aspect of the game(i.e. hitting, defense, baserunning). The formula for the JAWS score is (Career WARP + Peak WARP)/2.
First is the average line for a Hall of Fame first baseman. The next row is Albert Pujols with 2006 projected to 162 games.
| POS | # | BRAR | BRAA | FRAA | WARP | PEAK | JAWS |
| 1B | 18 | 717 | 465 | 2 | 98.2 | 43.1 | 70.7 |
| 1B | AP | 469 | 369 | 33 | 65.9 | 55.5 | 60.7 |
It looks as though he would be a borderline Hall of Famer if voted on today; however, Pujols looks like a surefire Hall of Famer when his name actually appears on the ballot. BRAR stands for Batting Runs Above Replacement and shows if a player was good for a long time. Clearly, Pujols does not have the longevity yet to match the average first baseman's numbers. BRAA, or Batting Runs Above Average, are accumulated through big seasons, as opposed to a long career. For this reason, Pujols should pass the average BRAA mark within a couple seasons. Pujols is without a doubt a superior fielder to most Hall of Fame first baseman, and most firstbaggers in general. As for career WARP, Pujols lags behind by 32.3, but this should take no more than three or four years for Pujols to surmount. Pujols Peak value already stands above the average at first base. His impressive beginning to his career means Pujols' Peak Score likely will not improve much, but his career value will surpass the 100 mark with ease.
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Date
Wed 07/12/06, 12:16 pm EST
