A Giant Signing? Zito vs. Schmidt

by user Madmooch

According to reports, The San Francisco Giants have signed Barry Zito for $126 million over 7 years (18 million per year). Earlier this winter, they let the original Ace of their staff, Jason Schmidt walk for $47mm over 3 years ($15.67 million/year). Besides the obvious long-term implications of signing a pitcher, here is why they overpaid:

In 2006:                INN    GS  W   L    K   BB    ERA   WHIP 
Schmidt, Jason     	213.3  32  11  9   180  80    3.586 1.261 
Zito, Barry             221.0  34  16  10  151  99    3.828 1.403

Notice the Strikeouts vs walks and ERA vs Whip. This is no coincidence. Take a look at the three year average:

3-year Average:  INN    GS  W   L  K     BB   ERA   WHIP 
Schmidt, Jason   201.7  30  16  6  208   69   3.258 1.131 
Zito, Barry      224.3  35  13 12  160   86   3.851 1.257 

In fact, Schmidt's stats (besides an injury-plagued 2005) have been steadily improving, while Zito's have been declining steadily over the last 3 years. So was he worth it? I say no.

Davis21wylieMVP

1067 days ago

Score 2

Based on this handy chart, the Giants are paying Zito the going rate for about 5.0 wins above replacement per year, with a 0.5-WARP attrition rate per year. If it takes approximately 10 VORP to produce 1 WARP, then Zito will have to put up around 50 VORP per season in the first several years (and not have his attrition rate drop by more than 5 VORP per season after that) to be worth the money. Zito was at 49.9 VORP last year (Schmidt was at 49.4), so it doesn't look too bad at first... But Zito was only at 41.1 in 2005, and 32.5 in 2004. Given his falling K-rate (meaning he's putting the ball into the hands of his defense more than ever), he may not have another 50+ VORP season left in him. By contrast, the 3-year, $47 million deal handed by LA to Schmidt expects him to only put up 40 VORP per season -- a standard he topped in 2006, 2004 (62.1 VORP), and 2003 (76.0 VORP, 2nd in the bigs). Schmidt is clearly a much better bargain than Zito.

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

1067 days ago

Score 0

A train is heading east from Atlantic City at 3000 miles an second slower than the speed of light, another train is heading west from San Francisco at the speed of light. If the guy in the caboose of the SanFran train turns on a flashlight and aims it east at the same time the conductor turns on a flashlight and aims it west, what will the conductor's VORP be if he gets Tommy John surgery and a little botox action done? How long 'til will we have VURP stats for all sports? (Value Under Roided Player)

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Davis21wylieMVP

1066 days ago

Score 0

Depends; is the conductor a ROOGY or a LOOGY? And, as we all know, TINSTAAP, so we'd probably want to know his DIPS, FIP, ERA+, VORP, WARP, RAA, PECOTA, EQA, and WHIP, too, for good measure. In fact, why don't you just put it all in your TPS report, ASAP -- but don't forget the cover sheet, for God's sake...

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KelsdadAll-Star

1066 days ago

Score 0

The Giants are dipshits. Offered Bonds 16 million knowing full well he's going to get suspended and may not play ever again, and let Jason Schmidt go, to the freakin" DODGERS of all teams, and paid a guy 126 million, which was like what, 50 million more than Schmidt was asking for, and isnt that good to begin with? Lucky they're in the same division as Arizona and Colorado or they would finish last..and by alot.

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TartanVarsity Captain

1066 days ago

Score 0

I like the signing. Zito's numbers will improve in the NL without a doubt, they don't lose any young guys, just a little money. And there is tons of that floating around MLB these days

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Baumandj

1066 days ago

Score 0

It's too bad that Barry Zito has to go play with the ego maniac Bonds.....he will probably lose a few games for him with his poor fielding on his old broken down knees.

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