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300?

14
Vote

by The Professor

Mr. Bonds hit his 755th home run a couple nights ago, tying him with Hank Aaron for the all time lead. He will finish this season with around 770. That's what the mark will be for A-Rod, who became the youngest player to hit 500 homers. So you see, that number is attainable.

On the other hand, Tom Glavine got his 300th win the other night. This number may be farther away from being seen again than any other number in baseball. The closest people to it are Randy Johnson at 284, but he's going to try and comeback after his 2nd back surgery at 42 years old. Mike Mussina at 245 is a grinder and a Yankee, but what happens when his contract is up at the end of the season? Are you throwing 10 million at an aging guy again? With the current swirl around the YES network being up for sale, and the rumors of "The Boss'" health in decline, the Yankees could be also. David Wells has 235 wins, but he's a coronary waiting to happen. You can't carry that weight and get another 65. 225 sees Jamie Moyer who spends too much time on the DL. Curt Schilling is at 213, but he came up in 1986. Do the math. Pedro Martinez is in the 200 club by 6, and he has no chance of getting a sniff of 300.

Cal Ripken's 2,632 consecutive games, Rickey Henderson's 1,406 stolen bases, and Pete Rose's 4,256 hits are astronomical numbers. Even Barry's 73 homers in a season is mind blowing, but fresh in our collective memory. Baseball is a numbers game, and these numbers may be imaginable but only if you're a fan. 300 wins has been placed into a new group of numbers - the numbers that are set in stone as we watch these things happen. The one caveat to 300 wins is that most team's starters are only going 6 innings an outing and bullpens are the soft underbelly of the team. Long gone are the days of complete games and dominate closers going one inning.

Professor's Note and Poll: This article was written by my partner in crime, Whitey. The link below is a poll of some of the "unattainable" numbers in baseball. Feel free to add your own with the "Other" answer.


THE POLL IS HERE

Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
InsanMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 3+-
Finish at 770? You're kidding right? Maybe if he plays the enxt season as well will he finish at 770. There's no way Bonds is hitting 770 with less than 2 months left...
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
850 days ago
Score 0+-
I'm not sure he can get a contract, but he could DH for a year, maybe 2. www.whiteyandprofessor.com
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BigPPupMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 0+-
He will retire with 780
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InsanMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 1+-
So I should look forward to Barry in the MLB for another 3 years.
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RomiezzoLegend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Probably Insan. He's gonna want to come back and get 3000 hits (he'll probably get that next year), and then try for 800 homers. Why couldn't Barry Bonds just go brain numb so he won't be able to read numbers in his head?
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DNLLegend
850 days ago
Score 2+-
I think Jeter has a decent chance at Rose's record. He's 33 and can easily do 10 years of 200+ hits
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KelsdadAll-Star
850 days ago
Score 1+-
The most amazing thing about Glavine? In 21 years in the majors he has never been on the DL. Not once. For a pitcher, that is unbelievable! No blisters, no broken nails, no jammed fingers on a comebacker, no sprained ankle landing in the other pitcher's plant hole, nothing. No one will ever win 300 again, I doubt anyone could reach Rose, a selfish prick could break Rickey's record, after all, he set it, but to play that long and never have a stint on the DL is remarkable.
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JuTMSY4Legend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Randy Johnson could hit 300...other than that...we'd have to start looking at some of the league's youngest phenoms...and hope Cole Hamels anyone?
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JuTMSY4Legend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
and please note the could kelsdad...he'd either have to pitcher really well next season or grind through 2 decent seasons...craig biggio style...
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InsanMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Johnson is too old. And Hamels pitches for the Phillies, so a lot of ND's there in the upcoming years. But when he's traded to another team in 3 years, he'll start winning games again ;-)
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JuTMSY4Legend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Actually...prior to this season the phils were developing a nice pen...last year Gordon was very good...and the year before we had a Madson, Geary, Wagner 7-8-9...which, if you look at the stats, was very very good...seriously... Of course, if we could only locate that Madson and Geary now...hmm...
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InsanMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 0+-
They are on the ever growing list of awesome guys the Phillies trade because they are too cheap to pay them.
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JuTMSY4Legend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Gordon, Geary and Madson are currently still phillies Wagner left via FA...and he's a rat...ask pat burrell...
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InsanMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Well, then they will be on that list in the future.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Johan Santana is 28 years old. It is definitely possible for him to pitch 15 more years. He has 89 wins. If he did pitch 15 more years, and averaged 15 wins a season, do you know how many wins he'd have? 314. Now let's say he pitched the next 5 years averaging 18 wins a season (he's a free agent after '08, he'll probably be going to a good team). In those 5 years, he'll add 90 wins to his total, which means that if he pitches 10 more years he'll only have to average 12 wins a season to reach 300. I'm not predicting Santana will win 300, I'm just saying it's possible.

Tom Glavine pitched in "this era" of relievers and incomplete games. He's got 56 career complete games in 21 seasons. Glavine's also averaged 6.52 innings per start in his career.

300 wins takes a long, consistent, and healthy career. It requires a good bullpen behind the starter, and a good offense supporting him. Nobody in the near future will win 300 games, but I think 20 or 30 years from now, we will have another 300 game winner.
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InsanMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 1+-
28 years old and 89 wins is not good. Sabathia has a better shot, 27 years old, 95 wins. But that's assuming he doesn't go Bartolo Colon on us.
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JuTMSY4Legend
850 days ago
Score 1+-
Sabathia is the name i've heard most frequently when talking about possibilities...
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 0+-
I was just using Santana as an example, I didn't mean to say he was the best candidate to reach 300. My point was that it is still possible.
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Silencer76AAA-er
850 days ago
Score 0+-
the problem is that no one knows if Johnson WILL pitch again after this latest round of back surgery. Barring that, would Arizona want to pay him the reported 10 mil in an 08 option?
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KelsdadAll-Star
850 days ago
Score 1+-
I get your reference Justin, and you're spot on. Randy's thisclose, but without some kind of divine intervention, he won't get there.
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JuTMSY4Legend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
I know nothing about back surgery, and less how it effects pitching (other than its bad)...but trying to return at age 43 (or however old he is) has got to be difficult... He's got the best shot for the foreseeable future...beyond that, like i said, you gotta look at a few guys like santana or Sabathia...or go really young...
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Silencer76AAA-er
850 days ago
Score 2+-
Zambrano is 26 and has 78 wins to his credit, figure he will pick up at least another handful this season, would put him in the low 80s, and he doesn't turn 27 until next June.
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InsanMajor Leaguer
850 days ago
Score 1+-
Him and Sabathia are huge question marks because of their health. And I'm not talking DL health, I'm talking 23 cheeseburgers a day health.
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
850 days ago
Score 1+-
2 Words: El Guapo. :P
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JuTMSY4Legend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Bartolo Colon anyone?
Permalink
RomiezzoLegend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
There's all this talk about who's gonna make it to 300. You guys need to know that young pitchers with ___ wins doesn't mean they're gonna get there. There's a reason why only less than 25 have achieved this feat. You're talking about Sabathia, Hamels, Zambrano, Johan Santana, but you haven't even seen them pitch at 30+ yet. They might be good now, but they could turn into a Kevin Brown later on in their career. I'm just saying: don't be so quick to judge pithers...
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JuTMSY4Legend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
But that was my point...there are no 30-something pitchers out there who have a shot...(none i can really think of)...so you gotta look at the young ones... I'm pretty sure Kelsdad, Insan and myself agree on that...if anyone is gonna do it, its gonna be a solid 15 to 20 years till we see it...
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RomiezzoLegend
850 days ago
Score 0+-
If Randy Johnson wants to be a Roger Clemens wannabe, then he'll get 300. It's over for him, IMO. He doesn't have much stuff left, and he's getting hammered. He should be remembered as one of the greatest pitchers to ever play the game. 3rd in strikeouts, 250+ wins... he just wasn't healthy near the end of his career, that's all...
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Silencer76AAA-er
850 days ago
Score 0+-
Agreed Romiezzo. I am not judging pitchers at all, just kicking out a name to match the rest. I don't know if any of them will hit 300, I commented in another thread that I don't think Santana or Peavy would get there mainly due to the way statistics have looked for them. I think these names were bandied about as they are the best of the younger pitchers in the league right now. You can't talk about Lincecum or pitchers like that as they have no track record to speak of.
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Yakob878MVP
850 days ago
Score 0+-
he will be close to 800 20 or so off and i think will play as dh in the al if he wants 800 if not he will retire as a giant
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Yakob878MVP
850 days ago
Score 0+-
also he is close to other milestones suchas the all time Rbi record
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Anonymous Fanatic #2
850 days ago
Score 0+-
300 wins by year:

(1888,1890,1890,1891,1892,1900,1901,1912,1915,1920,1924,1941, 1961,1963,1982,1983,1985,1985,1986,1990,2003,2004,2007)

When you look at the entire time period 1888 thru 2007, 1980 thru 1990 seems more of an aberration than normal, 6 of 23 occurred in that time period. 5 occurred in 1888-1892, which leaves only 12 over the other 105 years, so by that metric we shouldn't expect another for at least 9 years.
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