2008 New York Yankees: Offense
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by JasonComack
Is it ever to early to start thinking about next year?
Maybe I am just a complete lunatic but I am already salivating for the upcoming baseball off season.
For the New York Yankees this is a huge off season. Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez all need new contracts. Bobby Abreu has a option for next year so he's in flux as well. Meanwhile this team needs to shed some of the dead weight it's been carrying. (Carl Pavano, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi, Kei Igawa)
So without further ado let's breakdown the 2008 Yankees.
Let's start with what we know for sure, and it isn't much.
LOCKS: Offense
C 1B 2B: Robinson Cano 3B SS: Derek Jeter LF: CF: Melky Cabrera RF: DH: Hideki Matsui
Jeter, Cano, Melky and Matsui are probably the only locks on offense.
Jeter: Jeter is the face of the franchise and while his defense is starting to tale off you figure he is entrenched at short stop at least for two more years with a possible position switch looming in the future.
Cano: Cano is a guy who I've bashed in this forum. I don't regret my thoughts of trading Cano if he could have netted us a superstar like Mark Teixeira. However Cano really came on. I think I lit a fire under him. His defense and plate discipline have improved immensely and in turn so has his overall game. He's going to be the number three hitter sooner rather than later.
Melky: Melky is set in stone at center and I really like that. Anthony compared him to Bernie Williams and that might end up being more accurate than I thought.
Matsui: Matsui is still a solid hitter and his final offensive numbers will show that. He's more of a number five or six hitter at this point of his career than a top of the order hitter but I can live with it. The problem with him is his health and ability to play the outfield. He simply is a better hitter playing DH. After every game he puts two huge bags of ice on his knees. He isn't be a trade candidate because of his no trade clause and his immense marketing value.
NEAR LOCKS
C: Jorge Posada 1B: 2B: Robinson Cano 3B: SS: Derek Jeter LF: Johnny Damon CF: Melky Cabrera RF: DH: Hideki Matsui
Posoda: Jorge is almost a sure thing to return. He has said he will explore the free agent market, and I can't blame him. With the lack of catcher depth league wide and the absurd season Jorge has had the offers from other teams will be plentiful. At the end of the day I think the Yankees realize he's far too valuable to lose.
Prediction: 3 years 36 million
Damon: Damon is a near lock to stay. He really came on offensively and defensively towards the end of the season. The only thing preventing him from being a lock is his trade value. He's inexpensive compared to the other big name outfielders on the market (Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones). With the logjam at DH someone has to go (out of Damon, Giambi and Matsui.) Damon certainly would bring back more talent than Giambi would.
Prediction: Starting in Left Field.
PENCIL IT IN
C: Jorge Posada 1B: Andy Phillips 2B: Robinson Cano 3B: Alex Rodriguez SS: Derek Jeter LF: Johnny Damon CF: Melky Cabrera RF: Bobby Abreu DH: Hideki Matsui
A-Rod: My certainty of A-Rods return has varied from "he's retiring in pinstripes" to "enjoy the A-Rod era while we can". A-Rod has asserted himself as the best player in baseball. Ridiculous offense combined with his gold glove caliber defense. At the moment I think it's a pretty solid bet A-Rod comes back. He's indispensable. Plus I just don't think any other team (besides maybe the Red Sox) is going to pony up the money it's going to take to sign him. His return also affects the situation at first base. If A-Rod returns we can go with Philips/Mientkiewicz at first. Andy Phillips played well enough to deserve an everyday spot but if the Yankees lose A-Rod a big slugging first baseman may need to be acquired to fill the void.
Prediction: Extension (in the original trade the Rangers agreed to pay 67$ million of A-Rods remaining contract from 04-10. So that's roughly 9.5 million a year, meaning from 08-10 the Rangers would owe the Yankees roughly 28.5 million dollars.) 6 years 180 million.
Phillips: See Above.
Prediction: Starting at first.
Abreu: Abreu has a $16M club option ($2M buyout). So the question is, is a one year commitment to Abreu at 14 million worth it. The answer is obviously yes. The real question becomes if we "Sheffield" Abreu or not (meaning picking up his option and than trading him.) I think most teams in this league would be thrilled to have Abreu in right field for just 14 million next year. He could bring back an Humberto Sanchez sized prospect in a trade. But, if we trade him who do we play in right? I'm dead set against signing Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones. I don't think Brett Gardner, Bronson Sardinha or Shelley Duncan are capable of replacing him.
Prediction: Option exercised; Starting in Right Field.
QUESTION MARKS
Giambi: Giambi needs to go this off season. He CAN NOT be our everyday first basemen. He has two years remaining on his deal, only one guaranteed. 08:$21M, 09:$22M club option ($5M buyout). So in essence he has one year and 26 million left. He has to have some trade value if the Yankees agreed to pick up a size able portion of his contract. If the Yankees pick up say, 11 million, I think there would be a market for his services. The Angels, A's, Orioles, or Rangers could all be possible destinations.
Prediction: Traded to the Angels.
BENCH
I think theres a decent shot Shelley Duncan sticks. He should spend the off season working on his defense in LF, RF and 1B. Wilson Betemit has been solid, nothing spectacular but he's certainly an upgrade over Miguel Cairo. He should see more playing time next year possibly at 1B. If A-Rod leaves he could be an in house candidate to replace him. Jose Molina is important to resign, and I think he will.
So looking at my predictions the lineup looks, well, exactly like our current one. So is that a bad thing? This team is raking. I don't think anyone is in line for a sudden massive drop off in production plus we have longterm commitments to most of these players. In terms of offense I think the 2009 off season will be more eventful.
However what the Yankees must do this off season is acquire young position players in our minor league system. Our pitching depth in our minor leauge system is still fantastic even with the recent call ups. Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez, Andrew Brackman and Delin Bentaces just to name a few.
We however don't have many positional prospects in high regard. Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata are raking at high single A but both are clearly 3-4 years away from making an impact. Brett Gardner and Bronson Sardhina are the most likely candidates to contribute right away but neither are elite prospects. Not to mention the lack of an heir apparent to Jorge.
It's going to be an interesting off season. That's it for now back with a pitching breakdown tomorrow.
