2007 WAC Preview
| 7
|
by Cornfed78
Courtesy of CFN
1. Hawaii Predicted record: 12-0 Conf. record: 8-0 Best Offensive Player: QB Colt Brennan, Sr. Best Defensive Player: NT Michael Lafaele, Sr. Offense: Everything worked last year as Colt Brennan and the offense exploded for a nation-leading 559 yards and 46.86 points per game. While Brennan is back, after flirting with the idea of turning pro early, along with star receivers Davone Bess, Jason Rivers and Ryan Grice-Mullen, the line isn't remotely as good as last year's and the running game will desperately miss Nate Ilaoa. David Farmer has to add the run to the run and shoot, or else Brennan won't be nearly as effective. Even so, expect video game numbers out of the nation's best passing attack. Defense: With defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville gone, Greg McMackin will change the D from a 3-4 to a 4-3, even though the one weak spot, at least early on, is experience on the line. The linebackers will be excellent with good depth behind top tacklers Adam Leonard and Solomon Elimimian, and they won't have to do as much compared to last year with a more conservative, though not that much, overall defensive approach. Three starters return to a secondary that needs to be far tighter and far more clutch in big situations.
2. Boise State Predicted record: 10-2 Conf. record: 7-1 Best Offensive Player: RB Ian Johnson, Jr. Best Defensive Player: S Marty Tadman, Sr. Offense: As the Fiesta Bowl showed, there isn't a more creative offensive coaching staff in the country, but the attack, led by a Heisman caliber back in Ian Johnson working behind a tremendous line, could look positively vanilla (by Boise State standards) early on. Ryan Clady leads a dominant front five with four starters returning, and they'll need to be even stronger in pass protection with the quarterback situation unsettled. Taylor Tharp is a good, accurate passer, while Bush Hamdan is a big-armed runner who'll throw it all over the place. The receiving corps has potential, but the top four pass catchers have to be replaced. Even so, look for several different formations and several different looks from game to game. Defense: As expected, the defense was the best in the WAC last year and should be fantastic again with seven starters returning. Stopping the run will be goal one, and it can be with a fantastic returning pass defense. The secondary will be great with safety Marty Tadman and the corner tandem of Orlando Scandrick and Kyle Wilson returning, while the linebacking corps, even with the loss of Korey Hall, will be a strength with Derrell Acrey expected to step up and star, with veterans Kyle Gingg and David Shields keeping the run defense strong. Mike Williams and Nick Schlekeway form a good end tandem, but the tackles will be the team's biggest question mark outside of the quarterback situation.
T3. Fresno State Predicted record: 6-6 Conf. record: 5-3 Best Offensive Player: TE Bear Pascoe, Jr. Best Defensive Player: DE Tyler Clutts, Sr. Offense: New offensive coordinator Jim McElwain will pump some life into a stagnant passing game with a wide-open attack featuring some funky, multi-receiver formations while not running quite as much. Call it playing to the strengths, as the receiving corps is lightning fast, but untested, while Tom Brandstater, who struggled mightily last year, is still a talent who appears ready to make a big jump and become a major player. The running game will suffer without Dwayne Wright, but Lonyae Wright and Clifton Smith should be decent. The line is the strength of the team with four starters returning to a group that allowed just 12 sacks. Defense: After a tremendous 2005 season when the defense dominated, last year was a step back, especially in the secondary. Enough overall experience returns to be better, but the line has to do more to get into the backfield and the corners have to pick off more passes after taking away just three. There's plenty of speed and athleticism in the linebacking corps to swarm to the ball, and there's size and pass rushing ability from the front four, but there have to be more big plays and more takeaways.
T3. Nevada Predicted record: 7-5 Conf. record: 5-3 Best Offensive Player: C Dominic Green, Jr. Best Defensive Player: LB Ezra Butler, Sr. Offense: The offense is going to be a work in progress and should be far better midseason than it will be to start. The biggest question marks are on the offensive line, particularly at tackle, after Charles Manu moved to guard and Dominic Green move to center. The receiving corps is big, faster than last year, and should make more big plays with big-armed Nick Graziano taking over at quarterback. The running backs need Brandon Fragger to be healthy to add a speed option along with Luke Lippencott. The Pistol offense will likely use a little more fullback this year, and will try to push the passing game deeper. Defense: There will be some new defensive coaches taking over with coordinator Ken Wilson keeping the 3-4 scheme to take advantage of the great linebackers. Ezra Butler, Jeremy Engstrom, and Joshua Mauga are as good as any trio in the WAC, and will be the team's strength. The line is solid, helped by the emergence of nose tackle Matt Hines as a top all-around playmaker. The secondary is fine, but nothing special; the better WAC passing games won't have a problem against it.
T3. San Jose State Predicted record: 6-6 Conf. record: 5-3 Best Offensive Player: QB Adam Tafralis, Sr. Best Defensive Player: LB Matt Castelo, Sr. Offense: The offense wasn't always explosive, but it was steady, didn't give the ball away, kept the chains moving, and got the job done. Expect more of the same if the offensive line can quickly replace three starters and the new recruits for the receiving corps can play right away. The passing game loses the top three targets and 141 of 181 catches, so ultra-efficient QB Adam Tafralis has to be even better. Yonus Davis leads a small, quick, veteran group of running backs that can take it the distance with a little bit of room. Defense: The Spartan defense took a giant leap forward giving up yards, but not a whole bunch of points allowing fewer than 24 in ten of the final 11 games. Seven starters are back from the ball-hawking crew led by tackling machine Matt Castelo at middle linebacker and corners Dwight Lowery and Christopher Owens. The defensive front has to do a better overall job, and it will now that it's experienced after cutting its teeth last season. Jarron Gilbert and Justin Cole will be pass rushing terrors. Expect this group to give up plenty of yards, but also come up with more than its share of takeaways.
6. New Mexico State Predicted record: 5-8 Conf. record: 3-5 Best Offensive Player: QB Chase Holbrook, Jr. Best Defensive Player: FS Derrick Richardson, Jr. Offense: So that's how it's supposed to work? With Chase Holbrook at the helm, the Aggies finished third in the nation in total offense averaging 475 yards a game, 15th in scoring averaging 31 points a game, and second in passing averaging 399 yards per game. Those numbers might seem pedestrian this year if everyone stays healthy. Nine starters return including the top seven pass catchers, starting running back Jeremiah Williams, four linemen, and of course, Holbrook, who'll be one of the nation's statistical leaders all year long if the line, which found the right combination late last year, gives him just a little more time. Defense: Big plays, big plays, big plays. The call has gone out from defensive coordinator Woody Widenhofer for the defense to use all its experience, with eight returning starters (with safety Gerald Gurrier moving to receiver) to find a way to force more turnovers, come up with more stops on third downs, and most importantly, generate a pass rush. The Aggies came up with a mere 15 sacks and 55 tackles for loss last year, and those numbers need to double to give the beleaguered secondary any shot of being better. There isn't a whole bunch of talent from top to bottom, so everyone will have to be ultra-aggressive and more consistent.
7. Idaho Predicted record: 3-9 Conf. record: 2-6 Best Offensive Player: RB Jayson Bird, Jr. Best Defensive Player: CB Stanley Franks, Sr. Offense: Same idea, different implementation. The new coaching staff will go with a one-back set using four and five-wide formations, sort of like the old coaching staff did, but there will be an even bigger emphasis on tough running. That's a good thing with the strength in the running back corps with four good players, led by junior Jayson Bird, to carry the offense early on. The quarterback situation will be settled this fall with the likely winner being 6-5 redshirt freshman Nathan Enderle, but the receiving corps is going to be a work in progress well into the season. The starting five up front should be fine due to its experience, but it's nothing special. Defense: There's experience and all-star talent to work with, so why was the Vandal defense so miserable last season? The line. The front four has to find tackles that can stop the run, and ends that can get into the backfield. If that happens, there could be a night-and-day improvement as the coaching staff looks to attack, attack, and attack some more. With MLB JoArtis Ratti back and healthy, he should combine with David Vobora to create the WAC's most dangerous linebacking duo. Corner Stanley Franks is an interception machine, and safety Shiloh Keo is an undersized hitter. Now everything has to start working around those four.
8. Louisiana Tech Predicted record: 2-10 Conf. record: 1-7 Best Offensive Player: RB Patrick Jackson, Jr. Best Defensive Player: LB Brannon Jackson, Sr. Offense: It's not like the offense was awful last year, but it wasn't consistent and it didn't do enough to keep in all the shootouts created by its defense. Enough talent returns to look for more overall production, especially in the running game where Patrick Jackson should shine behind a big, veteran offensive line that can block, but can't pass protect. The quarterback situation will be worth watching with Zac Champion likely to get the job to start the season, but will be pushed by Michael Mosley and Ross Jenkins for time. Defense: 2006 was expected to be a year of transition, but yeesh. The D was the worst in America allowing 483 yards and close to 42 points per game, and it was simply awful from start to finish. Step one for the new coaching staff is to find a way to get into the backfield after the Bulldogs finished dead last in sacks and tackles for loss, and it'll alternated between a 3-4 and a 4-3 to try to get some production. The linebacking corps should be decent, the secondary can fly, and the defensive line is full of decent-sized veterans. Now there has to be come semblance of production.
9. Utah State Predicted record: 0-12 Conf. record: 0-8 Best Offensive Player: WR/PR Kevin Robinson, Sr. Best Defensive Player: DE Ben Calderwood, Jr. Offense: The offense did next to nothing last season scoring fewer than 14 points seven times and finishing averaging 10.83 points and 254 yards per game. The offensive line isn't bad and the starting receivers, led by Kevin Robinson, are solid, but the quarterback situation isn't settled with Riley Nelson out on a church mission, and there's no experience whatsoever at running back after Marcus Cross transferred. Basically, the attack needs to find one thing it can do well. Defense: If experience counts for anything, the Aggies should be far better with 11 returning starters and a ton of veteran backups ready to fill in. Now the defense has to stop someone after getting ripped apart by just about everyone. How bad did things get? The Aggies allowed an average of 48.8 points per game over the final five games. Ben Calderwood leads an undersized line that has to do more to get into the backfield. The corners are way too small, the linebackers are way too small, and the tackles are way too small. If the overall team quickness isn't accounting for big plays, there will be problems.
Team That'll Surprise:New Mexico State – The offense will simply bomb the weaker teams into submission. The Aggie defense couldn’t stop you and your grandma’s knitting circle from scoring, but when you have an attack that’ll roll for close to 500 yards per game, little things like stopping the opposition don’t tend to matter. There are just enough cream-puffs (SE Louisiana? Arkansas Pine-Bluff?!) to keep the Aggies in the hunt for a bowl game.
Team That'll Disappoint: Boise State – When you’ve lost one game or less in four of the last five years, dropping two would qualify as a disappointment, especially if it means the Broncos don’t win the WAC again. After the Fiesta Bowl, everyone will expect that every time out, and it’s not going to happen. Ho hum, the team that’s rebuilding a bit on both sides might slip into a disastrous abyss … and go 10-2.
Offensive Player of the Year- QB Colt Brennan, Sr. Hawaii – He could throw for 5,000 yards and 45 touchdown passes and some will be disappointed he didn’t break 6,000 and sixty. The stats could overshadow his leadership if the Warriors win the WAC title.
Defensive Player of the Year- LB Ezra Butler, Sr. Nevada – Being the WAC’s best defensive player is sort of like being the winner of a Don Imus look-alike contest, but Butler really is good. He’s a terror in the backfield with a league-leading 17.5 tackles for loss last season, and he’s the type of veteran leader who can make the Wolf Pack defense shine in the offensive-mad conference.
5 Big-Time Players Who Deserve a Bigger Spotlight: 1. WR Chris Williams, Jr. New Mexico State 2. WR Davone Bess, Jr. Hawaii 3. DE Ben Calderwood, Jr. Utah State 4. LB Matt Castelo, Sr, San Jose State 5. LB David Vobora, Sr. Idaho
Coach on the Hot Seat: Brent Guy, Utah State- After going 4-19 in his first two seasons, and likely needing to pull off a big upset to come up with a victory this year, Guy’s team at least has to show signs of being ultra-competitive to be around for year four.
5 Non-Conference Games the WAC opponents had better take, very, very seriously: 1. Kansas State at Fresno State, Nov. 24 2. San Jose State at Arizona State, Sept. 1 3. New Mexico State at New Mexico, Sept. 8 4. Nevada at Northwestern, Sept. 1 5. Fresno State at Texas A&M, Sept. 8
5 Best Pro Prospects: 1. QB Colt Brennan, Sr. Hawaii 2. CB Dwight Lowery, Sr. San Jose State 3. WR Davone Bess, Jr. Hawaii 4. OL Jeff Cavender, Sr. Boise State 5. QB Chase Holbrook, Jr. New Mexico State
5 Biggest Shoes to Fill: 1. Taylor Tharp or Bush Hamdan for Jared Zabransky, QB Boise State 2. Josh Bean for Korey Hall, LB Boise State 3. B.J. Batts, Jayson Rego and Kealoha Pilares for Nate Ilaoa, RB Hawaii 4. Nick Graziano for Jeff Rowe, QB Nevada 5. Lonyae Miller or Clifton Smith for Dwayne Wright, RB Fresno State
5 Bold Predictions 1. Hawaii and New Mexico State will wage a war for the ages. October 27th. Make sure you’re schedule is clear to watch two of the nation’s best offenses (if not the top two) put on a show. The Warriors won 49-30 last year with the two combining for 956 yards of total offense. Expect 100 points and well over 1,000 yards. 2. Boise State will slip a bit before roaring back in 2008. Fine, so a slip for Boise State still might mean a double-digit win season, but the team will play more like 2005 (when it went 9-4) than 2006. Next year, the program will be back to BCS challenging form. 3. No one will keep Hawaii to under forty points. Sound crazy? Only Alabama, Boise State and Oregon State were able to do it last year, and even those games were tight until the end. The offense rolled for over sixty in four games and should do that in at least six. 4. Utah State won’t win. At least, the Aggies won’t be favored. The easiest game on the slate is at Idaho. The second easiest is against Louisiana Tech. The team will be far better than last season when it struggled to do anything offensively, but it still won’t be enough to turn the woebegone program around. 5. Fresno State won’t pull off any big upsets, but San Jose State will. The Bulldogs will have their chances against Texas A&M and Oregon in early September, but they won’t have enough run defense to come away with wins. However, the Spartans will beat either Arizona State, Kansas State, or Stanford (if that’s actually an upset).
What Will Happen: The focus and attention will be off Boise State after an early loss at Washington. Then things will quickly change as Chris Petersen’s club rolls through the WAC schedule, including an emotionally-charged battle at Fresno State, only to lose at Hawaii to close things out. - Hawaii won’t lose. As long as Colt Brennan stays healthy, the Warriors will be this year’s dangerous WAC threat for the BCS. The toughest non-conference game is against Washington at home. The toughest road date is at Nevada. - The loser of the San Jose State – Fresno State game on October 20th will be eliminated from a bowl game. - Hawaii, Boise State, and Nevada will go bowling.
