2007 NASCAR Preview
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by user Phoenix Superfan
After a brief hiatus the Phoenix Superfan returns to armchairgm with his long awaited, NASCAR PREVIEW!!! Here is a look at some of the biggest storylines, going into today’s Daytona 500, plus a preview of 10 Top Drivers, and hints about fantasy picks. If I get a good response I will continue previewing all 43 'drivers and all 23 Nextel Cup Tracks, hopefully finishing all before the next race at California. That means if you want more NASCAR knowledge vote for this article. If I get at least 15 votes I will finish the preview. Tell your friends!!!
Quick Picks for today's Daytona 500 for yahoo users A- List - Jeff Gordon B-List - Casey Mears, Scott Riggs C-List - Mike Wallace
The Phoenix Superfan’s NASCAR Preview 2007
Introduction
I don’t know about anyone else but I am tired of the national publications (i.e. Sports Illustrated, ESPN the Magazine) and their half assed NASCAR preview. Seriously, NASCAR is one of the most exciting and popular sports in the United States and what do you get for a NASCAR preview? Five pages if you are lucky. So, without further adieu The Phoenix Superfan would like to present the most comprehensive NASCAR preview anywhere in the world. Or at least anywhere on armchairgm. We will leave no stone unturned, every track, every driver, every storyline, and of course plenty of fantasy tips. So flick your ignition switches, shift into gear, and let’s get going.
Quick Reference Important Dates NASCAR 2007
- 2/10/2007 – Budweiser Shootout at Daytona International Speedway
- 2/18/2007 – Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway
- 3/25/2007 – Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway Car of Tomorrow makes debut
- 5/19/2007 – Nextel All-Star Challenge at Lowe’s Motor Speedway
- 5/27/2007 – Coca-Cola 600 at Lowe’s Motor Speedway
- 7/7/2007 – Pepsi 400 at Dayton International Speedway
- 7/29/2007 – Allstate 400 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
- 8/25/200 – Sharpie 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway
- 9/8/2007 – Chevy Rock and Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway, end of regular season
- 9/16/2007 – Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway, Chase for The Nextel Cup begins
- 10/7/2007 – UAW-Ford 500 at Talladega Superspeedway
- 11/18/2007 – Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Nextel Cup Champion crowned
The Story Lines
What’s up with the Points System?
The biggest changes this year have to do with the points system. First and foremost the Chase for the Nextel Cup field has been expanded from 10-12 drivers. I don’t think this is a change that should have been made. 10 are enough drivers. By adding two drivers all you are doing is diluting the playoff field. These guys are likely to be more than 500 points behind and have no business winning the championship. Under the old system any driver within 400 points of the leader also qualified for The Chase. NASCAR eliminated this qualifier as its excuse for expanding the field. Quite a copout considering that this scenario never came close to coming into play. In fact, 2002 when 12 drivers were within 400 points of the leader with 10 races to go, is the only time it would have come into play in the modern era. The truth is it’s all about money and NASCAR is really making sure that it’s most marketable stars get into The Chase. For instance, Tony Stewart would have been saved last year, and Jeff Gordon in 2005. Not only is NASCAR going to let undeserving drivers into The Chase, but possibly even seed them ahead of the leaders, (we’ll get to that in a minute).
The 2nd major change is in regards to increasing the value of victories, something that both fans and drivers have clamored for, for years. Unfortunately, NASCAR screwed this one up as well. The first thing they did was add five additional points to a victory, making it worth 15 points more than 2nd place. That’s nice but I would have liked to see them add more like 20 points to a victory. The second adjustment is where they really bungled things up. In previous years at the beginning of The Chase each of the top 10 drivers had their points reset. The 1st place driver started The Chase with 5050 points and they decreased in increments of five all the way until the 10th place driver who started The Chase with 5000 points. There was nothing that needed to be changed about this except that maybe the top drivers deserved a little bit more separation from the bottom drivers. NASCAR went in the other direction instead. Now all 12 Chase Drivers will start on a level playing field at 5000 points, further penalizing the top drivers. Each Chase Driver will then be awarded 10 bonus points per regular season victory and they will start The Chase with those point totals. Here is why I don’t like this idea. Last season under this scenario Kasey Kahne who barely snuck into The Chase in 10th place and was over 400 points behind then point’s leader Matt Kenseth would have actually jumped all the way over Kenseth into first place due to having five victories as opposed to Kenseth’s four. I am all for giving more weight to victories but this just doesn’t make sense. One of NASCAR’s greatest strengths opposed to other sports is its willingness to listen to its fan and make changes to the rules accordingly, and even on the fly if necessary. The flip side of this is that fans can be fickle and a prone to knee-jerk reactions. To me this is a classic example of that. This one just wasn’t thought all the way through.
If The Superfan was Brian France
I would have left The Chase at 10 drivers adding only a provision that the defending champ automatically qualifies even if he is out of the top 10. It seems that winning a title should at least be worth that, plus it would have served the purpose of saving Stewart last year. In addition I am sure most fans want to see the champion defend his title. Doing away with the 400 point rule was a good idea since it wasn’t really irrelevant anyway. As far as victories I would have added 20 points to the value of a victory to make them more valuable. I would have only tweaked the point’s standings at the beginning of The Chase to have the 1st place driver start with 5100 points and decrease in 10 point increments, thus adding more weight to regular season standings. I also would have added a 25 point bonus for winning the pole. As big a part of the race weekend as qualifying is there should be some points on the line. Sure winning the pole gets a nice little paycheck, a good shot at five bonus points for leading a lap and first choice of pit selection but that just isn’t enough. Some drivers (Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart most notably) admittedly don’t take qualifying that seriously preferring to spend extra time working on race trim. If 25 points were on the line they would have to change their thinking.
What about the broadcasting changes?
First and foremost NBC will no longer be broadcasting NASCAR. I will wait a few moments for the applause to die down…………………………………………………. The regular season will begin on FOX with the Daytona 500 on 2/18/07 and they will continue to broadcast all regular season races through 6/3/07. TNT will pick up for a six race span beginning 6/10/07 at Pocono and ending at Chicagoland on 7/15/07. ESPN will make its return to NASCAR broadcasting races beginning with The Brickyard 400 on 7/29/07 and ending with Richmond on 9/8/07. All 10 Chase Races will be seen on ABC. The Gatorade Duels and The Nextel All-Star Challenge will be shown on the SPEED Channel. Every Busch Series race will be broadcast on the ESPN family of networks.
When the season switches to the ESPN/ABC portion of the schedule all eyes will be on popular former driver Rusty Wallace as he debuts calling NASCAR. Wallace, always a motor mouth in garage to begin with proved his mettle as a broadcaster calling IRL races last season, but it will be interesting to see what he has to say about some of his former on track rivals. On a sad note longtime, award winning analyst, and 1973 Winston Cup Champion Benny Parsons (one of the few bright spots on NBC’s broadcasts) recently passed away from lung cancer.
If The Superfan was Brian France
Hard to argue with anything here, although it usually is when you are talking about a nine figure TV contract. Good riddance to NBC, the lamest, lame duck in the history of sports broadcasting. Getting back on ESPN is a big deal too, after all, you can’t be a real sport if you’re not on ESPN, just ask the NHL.
What is the latest on Dale Jr. and DEI?
The longer it takes for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to hammer out a contract with DEI the more speculation will increase the he is planning to leave the team founded by his father, and frankly speaking, it might not be far from the truth. The relationship between Theresa Earnhardt, his step-mother and owner of the company, and Junior has always been frosty at best. Perhaps he is tired of her continuing to make money off of his name, which she actually owns the rights to, and wants to see what he can do on his own. He would certainly have a better chance of winning a championship elsewhere. DEI has been essentially a one car team for the past few years. Michael Waltrip was no longer competitive by the time he left, and promising former Busch Series Champion Martin Truex Jr. has struggled in DEI’s equipment. At this point I don’t think the world really knows how good of a driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. can be as he has literally been carrying his cars on his back the last few seasons. Another aspect that makes Junior’s leaving DEI all the more real is the fact that Budweiser’s contract with DEI runs out at the end of the year as well. The sponsor would of course follow Junior to whatever team he went to which essentially means if he wants out, he holds all of the cards. Junior’s sister Kelley Earnhardt Elledge, who handles his business affairs, recently said on Sirius Satellite Radio that negotiations continue with DEI and have been ongoing for about four months and that she expects a contract extension to be announced mid-year. What else can she really say at this point though? If she even hinted that Junior had the slightest inkling about leaving DEI the media circus around the story would be unreal.
If The Superfan was Dale Earnhardt Jr.
This one is easy, ditch DEI! Theresa Earnhardt is nothing but a diva who thinks that she is far smarter and more important than she really is. If Junior left, DEI would literally go out of business, but evidently “The Black Widow” doesn’t realize that as evidenced in her recent comments in the Wall Street Journal.
"Right now, the ball's in his court to decide on whether he wants to be a NASCAR driver or whether he wants to be a public personality."
Excuse me? By all accounts Junior is more focused on driving the race car then at any point in his career. Does she not realize that most of the checks she’s cashing come from all of the public appearances and TV commercials that I am sure Junior doesn’t love making? Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the kind of guy that would rather spend the day drinking Budweiser, playing video games with his buddies, and working on his truck than making TV commercials with Jay-Z. Today being a public personality is part of being a NASCAR Driver and she should know that better than anyone. After all, Dale Earnhardt Sr. was the pioneer among NASCAR pitchmen. Elledge says that neither her not Junior has had a chance to discuss the comment, which was made over a month ago. Makes you wonder how closely they could really be discussing a contract.
What is the Car of Tommorrow?
The Car of Tommorrow or COT finally becomes the Car of Today at least on a part time basis this season. The car, which is scheduled to make its debut at Bristol in March was designed with three goals in mind, improved safety, performance, and cost efficiency. In terms of improved safety, always the number one goal, the car gives a larger and more reinforced cockpit, moves the driver closer to the center of the car, and also features a 360 degree steel containment tunnel for the driveshaft. The main performance improvement is that the traditional rear spoiler has been replaced by an adjustable rear wing system. This will improve aerodynamics and promote an increase in passing. Its adjustability also allows teams to change rear down force during the course of the race. An adjustable front splitter has also been added to allow teams to adjust front down force. These changes are expected to create more of the old-school style slingshot passing which has been lost in recent years. These adjustability features also make the new car more cost efficient as teams will no longer be required to build track specific cars, thus reducing the total number of cars which need to be produced. NASCAR will also be providing teams with specific blueprints for the body and chassis of the cars to improve efficiency. The new cars also look more like production cars then the cars currently being used, and allow for a more brand identifying features such as front nose, grill, and window panels. The COT is slated for a total of 16 events in 2007, 13 at ovals less than 1.5 miles, the two road courses, and the fall race at Talladega.
If The Superfan was Brian France
I would give myself a big pat on the back for the COT. I don’t think it is coincidental that NASCAR is introducing the COT the same year that Toyota enters the series. It is yet another example of NASCAR flexing its muscle and showing why it continues to get stronger than other racing series, and that they understand the importance of maintaining cost efficiency. For all the doomsday theorists who predict that Toyota will outspend the other manufacturers I point to the COT. Not only that but anytime you can improve safety and make the race more exciting at the same time you have a win, win situation. The COT is further proof that as with the HANS Device and the SAFER Barriers safety is at the forefront of NASCAR.
What Does Toyota joining NASCAR really mean?
That it has moved into the 21st century, other than that, not much. It’s a global economy; I’m posting this on the World Wide Web, for people to read all over the world. The NFL is playing regular season games in England. Is it really that earth shattering that a foreign automaker is joining NASCAR? The irony is that the Camry is the only car model running in the 2007 Nextel Cup Series that is actually assembled in the US. Not only that but any idiot knows that Dodge is owned by Daimler Chrysler which is a German Company. Other than this arcane automobile racism the main concern regarding Toyota in NASCAR is that they would drive up the cost of doing business in an already increasingly expensive sport. This isn’t unfounded as Toyota has spent lavishly in Formula One, although not with much success. In the IRL on the other hand Toyota outspent Ford, Chevrolet, and even Honda to the point that every car run in the IRL was a Toyota last season, not exactly exciting for fans. The difference is that Formula One is an arrogant racing series that prides itself on having the most expensive and sophisticated equipment out there. They saw a team spending $400 million to fund a race team and looked at it as a status symbol. Now that their races have become boring and uncompetitive they are scaling back on technology. The IRL was to say the least fledgling after the IRL/CART split up and is right now on firmer ground than at any other time since the split. Their races are very competitive and they have marketable young stars in Danica Patrick and Marco Andretti. Was Toyota really bad for the IRL? The difference with NASCAR is that the organization is strong enough and has the sense enough to put the proper cost restraints in place to keep all manufacturers competitive.
If The Superfan was Brian France
I would welcome Toyota with open arms. There is a sentiment that NASCAR has reached its crescendo in popularity in the US which means there is only one place to go, and that is the rest of the world. NASCAR has already gone from a small southern circuit to a national phenomenon. With the addition of foreign automakers and recognizable foreign drivers such as Juan-Pablo Montoya could races outside the US be on the horizon? Hiring popular veteran drivers like Dale Jarrett and Michael Waltrip was a smart move for Toyota and should soften up even their hardest critics.
Other stories to keep an eye on
A lot has been made of 72-year-old James Hylton’s attempt to qualify for the Daytona 500 and kudos to him if he makes it. It’s an outside shot and his times haven’t been that good in practice but if he merely makes the field it is more than a quarter of a million dollar payday.
NASCAR has recently announced changes in the format for the Nextel All-Star Challenge and honestly the real news would be if they would leave this thing alone for once. The race will now be broken up into four, 20 lap segments. There is an optional pit stop after the 1st, a 10 minute break to work on the car after the 2nd, and a mandatory pit stop after the 3rd. Ok, whatever. There will no longer be a point in the race where the field is inverted after a segment as has been the case in years past. It seems to me that this takes away much of the strategy and uniqueness of the race. Also, now the top two finishers in the Nextel Open will move on to the main event instead of just the winner. I don’t really like this because it eliminates the last lap beating and banging that this event is famous for. I also don’t understand why you are trying to let me more people into the all-star race if they didn’t deserve to be there in the first place. There will also continue to be a driver voted into the all-star race by fans. Although, they may as well call it Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s pick because whoever he endorses on his website wins the vote every year. I know that an all-star event is supposed to be as much about the fans as possible but having Kerry Earnhardt in the Nextel All-Star Challenge takes away from the integrity of the word all-star.
Defending Indianapolis 500 and IRL points champion Sam Hornish Jr. ran in last year’s final two Busch Series Races. He didn’t fare well, crashing out of both events, but this season he intends to run as many Busch Races as he can while still running a full IRL schedule. There has been speculation that Hornish would make the jump to NASCAR ever since he signed to drive for Roger Penske’s IRL team three years ago. After finally getting his elusive Indy 500 victory last year there is little left for the three time IRL champ to accomplish in open wheeled racing. Hornish is the most accomplished American born open wheeled racer of his generation, so it is safe to say that he has bigger plans than just running a few Busch Races. At just 27 years old he is still in the prime of his career and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a Nextel Cup car before 2007 lets out. Another name to keep an eye out for is another former Indy 500 Champion, Jaques Villeneuve. After several years of battling with inferior equipment in Formula One he has recently signed a contract to drive stock cars for Jack Roush.
Speaking of Jack Roush he has announced a partnership with Boston Red Sox owner John Henry that will result in Henry owning between 25 and 50 percent of the race team. Roush, who has been one of the most outspoken critics of Toyota, has said that he needed the additional money brought in by the partnership to compete with the Japanese automaker’s cash machine. Interesting, considering that Roush is the owner most associated with driving up the cost of doing business in NASCAR to begin with. Needless to say, it’s not so fun when the Panama hat is on the other foot, or something to that effect anyway. Roush’s chief rival Rick Hendrick of Hendrick Motorsports deemed the move as unnecessary.
NASCAR will switch to unleaded racing fuel for the first time beginning with the second race of the season at California. The fuel was used in both the Busch and Truck Series last season with minimal incident. Some teams did report a slight increase in engine wear however. This could be an issue for some teams at California, a track notoriously hard on engines due to hanging RPM’s. This means that the cars carry so much speed that the engine is nearly redlining (roughly 9 to 10,000 rpm’s) the entire race, even going into the corners. California’s vast two mile outlay and long 500 mile distance have most engine departments walking a fine line as it is. You have to wonder if this is the best place to introduce the new fuel at. Why not bring in the new fuel along with the COT at Bristol which is much friendlier on engines? You just know that someone is going to get caught in “The Big One” at Daytona, lose an engine at Fontana, and their season is going to be over early.
The Drivers
Warm up laps
In this section I am going to break down the top 43 drivers in Nextel Cup. This is also where we will begin to delve into the fantasy aspect of things. Before I begin, a bit of an explanation about how the drivers are going to be grouped. First each driver will have a corresponding number preceding his name. This number is a representation of where I feel the driver ranks in pure skill level. This is not necessarily where I feel they will finish in the final points as that is also strongly impacted by equipment. Later in this preview I will also evaluate the strength of race teams and manufactures which are the other aspects which impact the final point standings. The drivers will be separated into three groups, an A List, a B List, and a C List. These lists are the exact lists which are used in the Yahoo.com fantasy NASCAR league, the recommended league of The Superfan.
The A-List
These drivers are the best of the best as established by Yahoo, based on past performance and 2007 expectations. There are a total of 10 A-List drivers. Each week two drivers are selected from you’re A-list before qualifying. After qualifying one of the two drivers is chosen to start and earn points for you that week. Last season 19 out of 36 race winners came off of the A-list.
While everyone likes to have the race winner on their team keep in mind that sometimes it is smarter to go with a safe pick then to try and hit a home run. It is very important to get a top 10 finish out of you’re A-list driver every week if possible. Keep in mind that most of the drivers on this list are going to have good finishes, so the DNF’s hurt you much more than the wins help you here. In other words, just because you have an inkling that a Biffle or a Kahne is primed for a victory doesn’t necessarily mean that he is a better pick than a more consistent driver like Johnson or Stewart. After all, 5th place is only 10 points less then 1st but 30th is 60 points less.
1 - Jimmie Johnson – 2006 Ranking – 1st
Assuming I had written this preview before, I most likely would have had Jeff Gordon in the number one spot just about every year since 1997. Last year, I probably would have had to go with Tony Stewart. This year however, the number one driver is pretty clear and it really isn’t even close. Gordon and Stewart are still more, well rounded drivers, but you can’t ignore Johnson’s consistency and domination in the Chase Era. The defending series champion is one of only three drivers to qualify for The Chase all three years and has finishes of 2nd, 5th, and 1st. In five full years in NASCAR’s top series Johnson has never finished lower than 5th in points and has a series high 23 victories over that period. Gordon and Stewart are tied for 2nd with 17 apiece.
While he finally got critics off of his back last year by winning his 1st championship that criticism was really unwarranted to begin with. It’s not like he had ever choked a championship away, it just hadn’t been his year yet. For the most part he had always come from behind to make it close at the end. He had always been strong down the stretch, for instance winning four of the final six races in 2004. In the end the fact that it was considered disappointing that a driver who had only four full seasons under his belt coming into last season hadn’t yet won a championship just speaks to his potential.
Johnson had one of the strongest seasons in recent memory last year winning both the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 in addition to the point’s title. He proved his clutch, reeling off five consecutive top two finishes to seal up the championship after getting wrecked on the last lap at Talladega by then teammate, Brian Vickers.
Johnson continued his evolution as a driver in 2006 picking up the first two restrictor plate victories of his career. Previously criticized as impatient in these events it seems as if he finally figured out the line between pushing too hard and pushing just hard enough. His versatility is proven by the fact that his other three wins came at the 1.5 mile cookie cutter in Las Vegas, the flat 2.5 mile oval in Indianapolis, and the .5 mile paper clip in Martinsville. It is rare to see a driver score wins at such a mixed bag of tracks in the same season. With the exception of the two road courses he is a threat to win every week and with Gordon’s tutelage he is getting better at those as well.
2007 looks like it should be another banner year for Johnson. Certain drivers have struggled the year after running deep into The Chase, (see Stewart, Greg Biffle, and Carl Edwards last year) but Johnson has seemed to be almost immune from any of the ills the effect other drivers. Unexplainably, he has even continued to excel at tracks where his teammate Gordon has struggled with set-up problems. A clear cut favorite to repeat as champion Johnson will be the 1st pick in most fantasy drafts and 2nd to Stewart in the rest of them.
Best tracks – Although he finished 2nd to Kasey Kahne in both races last year, Lowes Motor Speedway is still his house. He has nine top 10’s in 10 career starts at Martinsville, and two victories including last year’s fall race. He has never won in five starts at Chicagoland but has finished in the top 10 each time and has an unreal average finish of 3.6 there.
Worst tracks - No real weaknesses but I wouldn’t waste a fantasy pick on him at either road course. Also sometimes he struggles at some of the smaller, higher banked tracks like Richmond and Bristol.
2 – Jeff Gordon – 2006 Ranking – 6th
You really can’t go wrong either way whether you pick Gordon or Stewart at number two. I give Gordon the nod based more than anything on experience. The most accomplished driver of his generation, his next win will tie him with Dale Earnhardt, at 76. Gordon is a four-time champion but hasn’t won one since 2001, the longest drought of his career. After embarrassingly missing The Chase in 2005 Gordon made the playoffs in 2006 under first year crew chief Steve Letarte, but the season can still be considered a disappointment. While most drivers would be happy with a 6th place point’s finish it was not up to Gordon’s lofty standards, and he had only two wins, his lowest total since 1994.
Some say that Gordon’s days of winning championships are over, but that assessment is quite a bit unfair. Especially, if you consider that he would have won the 2004 title under the old points system. There is no doubt that Gordon hasn’t been his old self the past few years, but you have to give him a mulligan since his crew chief situation has been in flux. With Letarte beginning his second year on top of the pit box this will be a telling year as far as whether or not Johnson has really passed up his mentor as NASCAR’s best driver. The days of Jeff Gordon winning double digit races, as was commonplace in the late 90’s, is likely over, but so are the days of anybody winning double digit races in a Nextel Cup Season.
The past two years, Gordon has been uncharacteristically inconsistent, it seems he is capable of being the best or the worst car on the track in any given week. While he still knows how to drive a car as well as anyone else this will be a pivotal year. Whether or not Gordon returns to championship form in 2007 likely hinges on how well he is able to adapt to the COT. He will also become a father for the first time late in the season, so it will be interesting to see if this affects him on the track at all. As a fantasy pick I can see him going as high as number two and as low as number five. Stewart and Kenseth are probably safer picks, but Gordon has the biggest upside potential.
Best Tracks – Infineon Raceway – NASCAR’s all-time leader in road course victories still knows the quickest way around this tracks which twists and turns its way through California’s wine country, where he has five career victories. Gordon has never failed to finish a race in 28 career starts at Martinsville and has won there a career best seven times.
Worst tracks – Gordon has really struggled with set-ups at the Lowes Motor Speedway the last few years which is surprising considering that he has four career wins there including his first career victory in 1994. His struggles are even more surprising considering teammate Jimmy Johnson has dominated the track over the same stretch. Gordon has eight career DNF’s at Lowes, more than any other track. Phoenix, Texas, and Homestead-Miami are the only tracks on the circuit on which he has failed to record a victory.
3 – Tony Stewart – 2006 Ranking – 11th
After winning The Nextel Cup Championship in dominating fashion in 2005, Stewart failed to even make it into The Chase last year. Forced to settle for the 11th place consolation prize, he finished outside the top 10 in points for the first time in his eight-year-career.
His fall in the standings can be traced directly to a shoulder injury suffered in a May crash at Lowes. Including a 42nd place finish in that race Stewart finished outside the top 25 in four of the next six events which essentially cost him his spot in The Chase. Strangely enough, he finished 1st and 3rd in the other two races during that span, and at two of the most physically demanding tracks, Daytona and Pocono. Stewart further proved his toughness when he was shown in the garage swinging a sledge hammer to trying to fix his own car, despite the shoulder injury, after a crash at Michigan.
The injury aside Stewart was every bit as good in 2006 as he was in 2005. He matched his previous season’s victory total with five, and only had two fewer top 10s than in his championship season. If he had made The Chase, Stewart certainly would have been in contention for another title as he won three out of the 10 Chase Races.
Assuming that he stays healthy Stewart is a lock for a top five points finish in 2007. A more patient and better conditioned driver than in past years he has finally taken the step from prodigy to champion. With the momentum he carries into the year he is probably co-favorite along with Johnson to win the Nextel Cup.
The thing that sticks out to me the most is that all three of his late season victories, Kansas, Atlanta, and Texas came at the kind of 1.5 mile ovals which dominate the Nextel Cup Schedule. It seems like each year there is one driver who is just a little better than everyone else on these types of tracks, (see Newman 2003, Biffle 2005, Kahne 2006). If the end of last year is a prelude to Stewart being that driver this year then the rest of the field may as well pack up its haulers and go home. Stewart will probably go 1st or 2nd in most fantasy drafts, but I give Johnson the nod based on the strength of his race team.
Best tracks – Stewart has dominated the road course at Watkins Glen the last few years which is no surprise given his open wheeled back ground. Also not surprisingly he boasts an average finish of 8.4 at his home track in Indianapolis including a win and five top 10’s in eight career starts.
Worst tracks – another driver with few weaknesses Stewart has struggled somewhat at Bristol and California. There aren’t any at tracks at which he has more than three career DNF’s.
4 – Matt Kenseth – 2006 Ranking – 2nd
Kenseth (along with Johnson) enters the season as one of only two drivers with a chance to qualify for a 4th consecutive Chase (Mark Martin will only run a part time schedule). With Martin’s departure from Roush Racing, Kenseth becomes “the guy” on NASCAR’s largest team. Despite winning a championship in 2003, a feat never accomplished by Martin, Kenseth has always been able to toil in the shadows of the popular veteran. How the shy Wisconsinite will handle the added pressures of being the face of the organization remains to be seen.
In 2006, Kenseth rode a summer hot streak all the way to the points lead and held a slim advantage over Johnson heading into The Chase. Unfortunately, for fans of the 17 team this is when the wheels fell off. Kenseth never could get things going once The Chase started, and battled ill handling racecars throughout. To make things worse there was trouble between Kenseth and longtime crew chief Robbie Reiser culminating in Kenseth openly questioning whether or not his cars were good enough to compete with Johnson’s to the media.
Reiser and Kenseth have been best friends since their days battling it out on the short tracks of Wisconsin so it is hard to imagine them not getting this worked out, but this could be Reiser’s last year as crew chief on the 17 car anyway. Reiser has long been rumored to be in line for a promotion within Roush Racing, a move which many are surprised hasn’t come already.
There may not be a better driver in the series today than Kenseth at getting good finishes regardless of circumstances. Despite his late season struggles he finished outside of the top 15 only once in 10 Chase Races. Even with inferior cars this ability alone should be enough to have Kenseth in the top 12 come Richmond.
After placing all five cars in The Chase in 2005 Roush as a whole struggled in 2006. I fully expect them to have all of their equipment problems solved this year which could lead to a second point’s championship for Kenseth. A safe fantasy pick, he should go in the top five in all leagues, only how he will fare in the COT remains a question mark.
Best tracks – Kenseth, like most Roush drivers is usually strong at 1.5 mile tracks. His best venues are Las Vegas and Michigan each of which he has notched two wins at. Kenneth also has two wins at Bristol and nine top 10s in 14 starts there.
Worst tracks – the man who drives the DeWalt car has never been much of a road coarse racer and it shows as he only has three top 10s in 14 career road course starts, none of them coming at Infineon. He has also had his struggles at Kansas and Homestead-Miami which is relatively surprising given their similarity to Las Vegas.
5 – Kasey Kahne – 2006 Ranking – 8th
When he came screaming into the series in 2004 with top three finishes in three of his first four career races, fans everywhere were hailing the young driver as the second coming of Jeff Gordon. Kahne came back down to earth that rookie season, eventually finishing 13th in points, but he did score an impressive 13 top five finishes. He failed to make it to victory lane, but if you listen to most experts it wasn’t a matter of if but when. He finally picked up that elusive 1st victory at Richmond in 2005, but regressed otherwise. It was a classic sophomore slump as he fell to 23rd in points and had only eight top 10 finishes.
In 2006, Kahne finally had the breakout year that everyone had predicted, with a series leading six wins. He also made his first appearance in The Chase, eventually finishing 8th in the final standings. He also proved that he could perform under pressure with a win at California and a 3rd place finish at Richmond in the last two races before The Chase, propelling him into the postseason. Four finishes of 33rd or worse over the last 10 races doomed his title chances.
That, however, is pretty much a summation of his season. Kahne’s greatest asset, which is his aggressiveness, is also his biggest enemy, as he continues to wreck way too many race cars (a criticism of Gordon early in his career). Kahne had six DNF’s in 2006. That’s down from nine in 2005 but still far too many to seriously contend for a championship (Johnson had just one). He also continues to struggle on the road courses and restrictor plate tracks, although he was 2nd in the fall race at Talladega.
If you took a gamble on Kahne as a fantasy pick last year he paid off for you in a big way. He is just as big of a gamble this year and probably even more so as you will need to use a higher pick on him. Keep in mind that all six of his wins last year came on tracks of 1.5 miles or larger and drivers who have dominated those tracks recently have tended to struggle the following year (see Biffle last year). On the other hand you can argue that Kahne is the most talented of the bunch and this is the year where he takes another step forward.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I don’t expect Kahne to win six times on the cookie cutters next year, but I don’t expect him to take a big step back in the standings either. The bottom line is he just has too much talent not to succeed. He is just 26-years-old so his best days are likely ahead of him, and he will still probably continue to make too many mistakes and have some bad finishes. Otherwise, as long as he continues to improve on his weaker tracks the good should outweigh the bad.
I have Kahne ranked at number five on raw talent but he probably shouldn’t go that high in fantasy drafts. Evernham Motorsports is the strongest Dodge team but they still don’t rank up there with the Hendrick’s, Roush’s, or even Gibbs’s of the world which puts him at a slight disadvantage equipment wise. I also wouldn’t want to start him on road courses or restrictor plate tracks until he proves himself further. You would think he would be a decent road racer given his open-wheeled background but his results have been atrocious.
In Yahoo league’s Kahne is a guy you want to use judiciously and study the stats carefully on. He is generally either really good or really bad at a given track, which means he can make or break your whole season. One last thing to keep in mind is that four of his seven career victories have come from the pole so get him in your line-up if he is on it!
Best tracks – You can almost list half the tracks on the circuit such as the way Kahne’s statistics go, but his best have been at Michigan and California. Expect that trend continue as they are sister tracks. He probably wishes that Nextel Cup still went to Darlington twice a year as he has fashioned an average finish of 10.5 at the egg-shaped speedway. He also won both races last year at Lowe’s.
Worst tracks – Again you can list almost half of the tracks here, but the road courses are of particular concern. Kahne has an average finish of 34.3 at Infineon! Stay away from him at restrictor plate tracks as well as he has only one top 10 in 12 career starts at Daytona and Talladega. Bristol and Dover have not been kind to him either. Expect this to continue as well since they are sister tracks of sorts.
6 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 2006 Ranking – 5th
After a brutal 2005 season where, finished 19th in points, Junior bounced back and made The Chase in 2006. Finishing fifth in the final standings, it was his 3rd top five point’s finish in the last three years. A good deal of his success can be attributed to the return of Tony Eury Jr. as crew chief.
In 2005, due to a difference of opinions between him and Earnhardt Jr., Eury left the 8 team to go work with Michael Waltrip. It was a failed experiment as Junior endured the worst season of his career with Pete Rondeau as his crew chief. Rondeau didn’t even last the season and was replaced midway through the year by interim crew chief, DEI technical director Steve Hmiel. Waltrip didn’t fare much better, and when he left DEI to form his own races team it was an easy decision Earnhardt and Eury to iron out their differences. If the two can continue to get along in 2007 then the results should continue to improve.
The biggest obstacle between Junior and a championship is his equipment. DEI cars have always excelled on the restrictor plate tracks and continue to do so, but at other tracks the horsepower just isn’t quite there. Another disadvantage is that with Waltrip gone he is pretty much a one man team. Talented youngster Martin Truex Jr. remains in their stable, but he lacks experience, and his results have been spotty at best.
Criticized early in his career as a driver who could only win in DEI’s dominant restrictor plate cars, he has turned the table and it is now Earnhardt carrying the cars instead of vice versa. Although he did muscle out a victory at Richmond (his only win of the season) on most weekends his cars just weren’t capable of running with the leaders. He instead, relied on consistency, with 17 top 10 finishes and just 3 DNF’s.
From a talent standpoint there is no doubt that the acorn didn’t fall far from the family tree. He is more focused as a driver than ever before, which is amazing considering that he is literally expected to carry the weight of an entire sport on his shoulders. On the other hand his equipment seems to be going in the opposite direction. Eury is undoubtedly a talented crew chief, but the organization as a whole seems to be on the decline. Perhaps too much of their focus is on the restrictor plate races, and not enough on the other 32 races on the schedule.
From a fantasy standpoint Junior is worth a pick somewhere between 5 and 10, but in almost every league there will be an overzealous Junior fan, who takes him too soon (he went 2nd overall in my serpentine draft last year). In Yahoo leagues he is another guy to really peg for particular tracks before the year starts.
Best tracks – obviously Daytona and Talladega, seven of his 17 career victories have come at these tracks. You used to just pencil him in at either of these places, but keep in mind he hasn’t won a restrictor plate race since the fall of 2004, at Talladega. His average career finish in 15 career races at Richmond is 9.9 and he has three wins and zero DNF’s there. He is always strong at Bristol too, as he puts it, “my daddy taught me how to get around that place.” If you use him at a 1.5 mile track, make sure it is Atlanta.
Worst tracks – Any of the 1.5 mile tracks or just any tracks in general where horsepower is at a premium usually give Junior trouble. I have seen him have some particularly brutal days at California where he has 3 DNF’s in 10 career starts. As you might have guessed, the road courses aren’t among his favorite.
7 – Greg Biffle – 2006 Ranking – 13th
After winning six races and finishing second in points in his breakout 2005 season, Biffle regressed to just two wins and 13th in points in 2006. A lot of Biffle’s 2006 struggles can be linked to the struggles of Roush Racing as a whole. After placing all five of its cars in The Chase in 2005 they seemed a step behind in 2006, only getting two cars in.
Biffle particularly dominated the 1.5 mile tracks in 2005 and it looked like he might continue those ways when he led 168 laps at California in the second race of the season. Unfortunately, with just 22 laps remaining in that race his engine blew up and he finished 42. His early season struggles continued as he finished 30th or worse in five of the first nine races, and he was 23rd in points following a crash at Talladega.
Just when it seemed like his season might be over before it really got started Biffle got hot and ran off a string of seven consecutive top 10’s including a win at Darlington. He actually got as high a 9th in points, but back to back finishes of 33rd and 38th at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen ended his chances of making The Chase.
Biffle’s up and down season didn’t let up there either. He finished 32nd or lower in five of the final seven races of the year, including yet another engine failure at Lowe’s. On the upside the other two were a 5th at Atlanta and a season ending victory at Homestead-Miami.
Biffle fell off in almost every category last year, and was especially hurt by DNF’s of which he had six, compared with one in 2005. Some of this can be attributed to his aggressiveness. No other driver consistently drives his car harder into the corners than Biffle who is known for bouncing his car off the wall without even lifting off the gas. This kind of driving will of course increase the chance of accidents, but is also the main reason he is so good on the circuit’s fastest tracks. Three of his DNF’s on the other hand were engine failures, and that number is unacceptable for a team of Roush’s status.
Biffle could be a great value pick in fantasy this year. He is unlikely to go in the top 5 in your draft, but is very likely to finish there in points. Especially when you consider that former Mark Martin crew chief Pat Tryson (he made The Chase all three years with Martin) will now be the man sitting on top of his pit box. I have to think that some of his late season struggles had to do with him experimenting with different set-ups more than anything. Remember, this is exactly what he did after missing the post season in 2004, then came out of the gate on fire the following year. Another thing to keep in mind is that season ending win in South Florida. In 2004, he also won the season finale and carried that momentum with him into the following year.
Best tracks – anywhere you go fast. Generally speaking the faster the track the closer you will see Biffle to the front. He has won the last three races in a row at Homestead-Miami so he is pretty much a no brainer pick there. He has two wins at Michigan and an average finish of 9.6 in eight career races there. That blown engine last year hurts his average at California, but I wouldn’t think twice about picking him there especially since it is a sister track to Michigan. He has also won the past two races at Darlington, somewhat surprising considering that it is a finesse track.
Worst tracks – despite the fact that his first career victory came there (on a fuel mileage gamble) Daytona has not been kind to Biffle. In fact, that win is his only top ten in eight career starts there. Talladega has been even worse, where he has an average finish of 26 and no top tens. As with most drivers he struggles with the road courses, but even more so than most. He has just one top 10 in eight career road course races and a 35.2 average finish at Watkins Glen.
11 – Kevin Harvick – 2006 Ranking – 4th
After Back to back 14th place point’s finishes and just one win in 2004 and 2005 combined Harvick was rumored to already have one foot out the door at Richard Childress Racing. The race team was a shell of its former self, and its top driver appeared disgruntled and frustrated. Few ever doubted Harvick's talent, but his temperament was always a questions mark. His team was struggling, and many openly wondered if it was time for a change. Perhaps the pressure had gotten to be too much. After all, after Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death he was unexpectedly put into the unenviable position of replacing a legend. To top things off, when he won in his 3rd career start at Atlanta the expectations became unreal. Between 2002 and 2005 Harvick had just three wins and one top 10 points finish. With results like that his departure from RCR seemed inevitable. Just when it seemed things couldn’t get any worse something magical happened. They started winning again.
Harvick stumbled out of the gate in 2006 and after finishing 39th at Atlanta he was 23rd in points after four races. There were whispers of here we go again until the following week at Bristol when he finally got on track with a 2nd place finish. It was the first of four consecutive top 10’s punctuated with a win at Phoenix. That win brought him up to 8th in the standings and he wouldn’t fall out of the top 10 for the rest of the year. He even led in points after winning the 1st race in The Chase at New Hampshire and eventually finished the year 4th.
The 4th place finish was a career high for Harvick who had a career best in almost every category. His five wins actually doubled up his career total to 10, and he had 20 top 10’s. He also did a good job of taking care of his equipment with only 1 DNF. Harvick actually always does a good job of staying out of trouble as he has just 6 DNF’s in the last 4 years which is 142 races!
Heading into 2007 the outlook on Harvick is good. The success of teammate Jeff Burton in 2006 serves as proof that RCR as a whole seems to have gotten back on track. In my mind he is still just a step below the best drivers which makes a championship unlikely. Another run into The Chase on the other hand seems like a good bet. He will probably go in the bottom half of the top 10 in most fantasy drafts, if he is still available after number 10 gobble him up. In Yahoo leagues keep an eye on Harvick on the flatter tracks as those are the ones on which he seems to excel.
Best tracks – Flat tracks such as Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Indianapolis. He has wins at all three including a sweep of Phoenix last year. He won the Brickyard 400 in 2003 and has an average finish of 7.8 in six career races there. Bristol is another strong track for Harvick, surprising considering its high banking, where he has a win and 8 top 10’s out of 12 starts. He is also a pretty good road racer, especially at Watkins Glen where he has been in the top ten 4 out of 6 times. He has also won twice at Chicagoland but not in the last five years.
Worst tracks – Nothing particularly sticks out. Ironically, Atlanta where he picked up that famous 1st win hasn’t been good to him since. He has an average finish there of 25.2 and a career high 3 DNF’s at the venue. The very un-Biffle-like Harvick also has had his struggles at California and Darlington.
12 - Carl Edwards – 2006 Ranking – 12th
At the beginning of 2006, much like Kahne the year before, Edwards was penciled in as NASCAR’s next superstar. Edwards, finished off the 2005 season, his first full year in the Nextel Cup Series, on a huge hot streak. Four straight top 10’s to end the year, including back to back wins at Atlanta and Texas landed him 3rd in the final standings. Once again, like Kahne the previous year, he would find himself mired in the dreaded sophomore slump in 2006. He failed to record any victories and fell nine spots to 12th in points. Does that mean that Edwards is looking for a bounce back in 2007 as Kahne did in 2006? Well, if you think Biffle is going to have a good year then I would say it’s likely.
Greg Biffle?!?!? Let me explain. These guys have a lot more in common than just being on the same race team. In they words of Ricky Bobby, they want to go fast! These guys have so much in common that in 2005 they actually tied with both driver having exactly 6498 points (Biffle was 2nd and Edwards 3rd by virtue of having six wins compared to four). When put into that perspective, their respective struggles make perfect sense. Especially, when you consider that Kenseth and Martin, the two Roush drivers to make The Chase, are more of the conservative, grind out a top 10 kind of drivers.
Edwards and Biffle on the other hand have absolutely no fear. It is the reason, when they win, and when they lose. I will never forget the fall race at Talladega in 2005. The Big One hits, but just when everything is starting to settle down and most of the cars have stopped Edwards goes charging wide open into the eye of the wreck causing significantly more damage than was necessary. That is the true meaning of a never lift mentality.
As for 2007, I can see a rebound for Edwards as long as Roush gets its 1.5 mile program back on track. I would be surprised if he gets anywhere near 3rd in points, but then again he has been surprising me for a while. Who saw it coming when he drove a nearly unsponsored car, which had been performing poorly for Jeff Burton, to a top 10 in his first career start at Michigan?
In fantasy drafts, Edwards is a late 2nd to early 3rd round pick. He is very low risk here and should outperform that position. Any earlier than that is a bit of a gamble. Now that there will be 12 drivers in The Chase he should make it this year, and could make some noise. He has traditionally been strong at most of those tracks. He also 10 top 10’s in the final 15 races of last year. If you don’t draft him then he may be a guy you consider trading for late in the year. One piece of advice, I would ignore Edwards if you already have Kahne or Biffle as your team will be wildly inconsistent.
Best tracks – anywhere you like Biffle. He has truly impressive averages at California (4.4), Lowes (6.0), Homestead-Miami (8.7), and Michigan (8.6). He swept Atlanta in 2005 and has four top 10’s in five starts there. He has also been above average on flat tracks including a win at Pocono.
Worst tracks – His average finish at Daytona is a bloated 31.8 and he has two DNF’s out of four races there. Short tracks Richmond and Martinsville have given him trouble as well. Edwards is a below average road racer.
15 - Jeff Burton – 2006 Ranking – 7th
Was there a more improbable comeback story in NASCAR last year than Burton? Once, one of the circuits most successful drivers, it seemed that the sport had passed him by. After all, he had already been fired by Roush. If he couldn’t win there, where could he win? To make matters worse, Carl Edwards had driven his old car, the 99, to four victories and a 3rd place points finish. His new team, RCR was in its most downtrodden state since the days when Richard Childress drove the cars himself. RCR had failed to place a car in either of the first two Chases, and the rumors around the garage were that they just didn’t have the resources to play with the big boys anymore.
Burton finished in the top five in points every year from 1997-2000, and accumulated 15 victories during those seasons. However, it seemed that Burton had little to look forward to coming into 2006. He was coming off of back to back 18th place point’s finishes, and hadn’t won a race since 2001. Burton however, knew something that the rest of us didn’t.
When he won the pole for the season opening Daytona 500, the sentiment was that it would be the highlight of his season. When he suggested that they had even better cars waiting in the garage many doubted his optimism. When he failed to capitalize on his pole position, finishing 32nd in The 500, it looked like it would be another rough year for the popular veteran.
He scored top 10’s in each of the next two races, followed by three finishes of 25th or worse which left him 21st in points. The following week at Texas, his season would begin to turn around. A 6th place finish there was the first of 11 in the next 14 races. By mid-summer he would be all the way up to 3rd in the standings. He continued to run well with the exception of a blown engine at Michigan, and entered The Chase eighth in points.
Regardless of how well he did in The Chase, just making it meant that the season would be a success. The only thing missing was that elusive victory. That victory would come sooner rather than later when he came home with a win at Dover in the third race of The Chase. That victory would actually catapult him all the way into the point’s lead which he would hold onto for four more weeks. Just when it looked like a magical season might result in a championship, Burton’s title hopes were dashed by a blown engine and subsequent 42nd place finish at Martinsville. He would wind up seventh on the final ranking, a disappointment no doubt, but a success nevertheless.
Burton came out of nowhere last year, and was definitely a guy who factored into a lot of fantasy championships. Undrafted, in many leagues, if you were lucky enough to grab him off the waiver wire you got a top 10 driver for free. In yahoo leagues he was money nearly every week on the B-list. This year Yahoo has him ranked up to the A-list and I’ll bet money that I don’t use him all year. In serpentine drafts he is a safe pick who takes care of his equipment. I think he is a safe bet for a top 15 point’s finish but that may be about all you get out of him.
Best tracks – the flat tracks are his favorites. He has four career wins at New Hampshire, two at Phoenix. He is decent on most of the 1.5 mile tracks, but I would ignore his multiple wins at Las Vegas, Darlington, and Lowe’s as they all came more than five years ago.
Worst tracks – no particular weakness sticks out but he is below average on road courses, restrictor plates, and short tracks. He has eight combined DNF’s at Daytona and Talladega.
The B-List
The B-list this year contains 18 drivers, and is strong with talent. There are a few drivers on the B-list who are sure to be moving up to the A-list next year, and even I few that maybe should have already. The B-list is important because every week half of your team is going to be comprised of B-list drivers. Unlike the A-list, each week you have to select four drivers before qualifying, and then two to start for the week.
Keep in mind that you are only allowed to start each driver nine times each season in Yahoo leagues, or essentially 25% of the races. On the A-list, since you are only starting one driver each week and every driver on the list is a stud the limit rarely comes into play. On the B-list however, managing starts is key. Essentially each year you are going to have about six drivers off of the B-List who really step up and separate themselves from the pack. Last year, they were Earnhardt Jr., Harvick, Burton, Kahne, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. That means that you had a total of 54 starts allowed between the six. However, with starting two B-list drivers each week that requires a total of 72 starts for the season.
The difference of 18 starts is the key. First and foremost, to maximize your point potential you want to make sure that you are using each of your top six the maximum amount of times. In my league last year I used all six of the aforementioned drivers the maximum amount of times. Of course you also have to be judicious to make sure that you don’t run out of them too quickly either. This is where the strategy comes in.
Before the season starts you will want to first identify who you feel are going to be your top six B-list drivers. Let’s say for instance that your top six is Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray, and Juan-Pablo Montoya. Cross each of those guys off and assume that they will make the max starts. After that, look at the remainder of the list and start looking for good match-ups.
For instance, the first race of the season is the Daytona 500. Out of the remaining B-list drivers I see that Brian Vickers is a decent restrictor plate driver. I pencil him in on my B-list for the Daytona 500 and repeat this process for each of the 36 races. What this does is give me one B-list sleeper pick in each race.
From that point the rest of your season is easy as all you will have to do from then on out is decide which three of your top six you want to put on your B-list each week in addition to your sleeper. All you will have to do in order to manage your starts from there is just make sure you are using your sleeper pick about every other week to cover the 18 start differential.
One final note, don’t be married to your original top six as it is unlikely you are going to guess them all right. For instance, if you were to tell me you had Burton in your top six at the beginning of last then you are either a liar of a relative. I would say to maybe revaluate your top six every three to five races. By mid-season they should be pretty evident though, this isn’t brain surgery by any means.
