2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Shortstop
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
In five days, the Halls of Cooperstown may include additional plaques, as writers will vote on the 2007 Class. I will evaluate each eligible player in the days leading up to the results. There are four candidates at shortstop: Cal Ripken Jr., Alan Trammell, Dave Concepcion, and Tony Fernandez.
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: First Base |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Third Base |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Shortstop |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Outfield/DH |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Pitchers (and Wrap-up) |
This article will evaluate players similar to this previous article. Also, check out Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot for another perspective of this year's ballot.
As weak as the third base candidates were, the shortstops are strong. All four of these players actually deserve to be on the Hall of Fame ballot.
JAWS
First, each player will be evaluated by their JAWS score, which was created by Jay Jaffe at BaseballProspectus.com. The JAWS score uses the WARP(wins above replacement player) stat by adding the player's seven best seasons and their career WARP total, then dividing by two([PEAK + Career]/2).
Cal Ripken
Career: 169.2 Peak: 89.1 JAWS: 129.2
Without any doubt, Cal Ripken Jr. belongs in Cooperstown. Six of his seasons are Hall-of-Fame caliber, two more are arguably so, and his 1991 season was one of the greatest of all-time. Like most elite players, Ripken started young, entering the league at 20 and having an All-Star season at 21. He reeled off one of the greatest four-year streaks from the age of 22 to 25. After a down year in 1987, Ripken again went on a four year tear, culminating with the amazing 1991 season. The next season, at the age of 31, Ripken began his decline, but remained a very solid player until retiring after the 2001 season. His Peak score rivals some very good players' Career score.
Alan Trammell
Career: 123.4 Peak: 70.8 JAWS: 97.1
Trammell's career closely resembles a bell curve, even more than most players. He hit the majors at the age of 19 in '77 and struggled his first season. The next two years of his career were below-average performances, but he took a step up to an All-Star level in 1980. After three years, Trammell again boosted his level to that of a Hall-of-Famer. From the age of 25 to 29, four of Trammell's five seasons were elite years. The best of this run was the final year in 1987, which contained Trammell's only seasons with an OBP above .400 and a SLG above .500. The following three years, Trammell returned to a solid All-Star level, before slowly fading to uselessnes by the age of 38.
Dave Concepcion
Career: 109.8 Peak: 66.6 JAWS: 88.2
Concepcion's first three seasons were anything but indicative of a future Hall-of-Famer. They were not even near average performances. After missing nearly half of 1973, Concepcion turned in a surprising career year. His bat rarely reached that level ever again for the rest of his career, mostly staying around average, but his glovework kept him among the most valuable players in the league from 1974-1982. From the age of 35 to 40, Concepcion had totally lost his ability to hit, his defense was declining, and he was doing nothing more than just hanging around.
Tony Fernandez
Career: 105.4 Peak: 63.6 JAWS: 84.5
Fernandez began his career in the majors in 1983 at the age of 21, but didn't receive a full-time job until 1985. He flourished as soon as he was given the starting job, posting outstanding seasons from 1985 to 1991. Outside of this seven-year bubble, Fernandez was average at best. Oddly, his batting spiked to a new level in 1998 and 1999 while playing for the Toronto Blue Jays. Fernandez was 36 years old at the time.
Hall of Fame Scores
Black Ink measures the number of times a player led the league in a category. Gray Ink measures a player's frequency in the top ten. HOF Standards provides a value to a player's career. HOF Monitor measures how likely it is that player will be voted in.
Further explanations can be found here: Baseball Reference explanation]
Cal Ripken Jr.
Black Ink: 19
Gray Ink: 116
HOF Standards: 58.3
HOF Monitor: 236.0
Ripken ranks 25th all-time in HOF Monitor, so there is no doubt he will be elected to the Hall. Ripken won two MVPs and finished third once. In addition, Ripken won two All-Star MVPs and the Rookie of the Year award.
Alan Trammel
Black Ink: 0
Gray Ink: 48
HOF Standards: 40.4
HOF Monitor: 118.5
Trammell's HOF Monitor is the only one of these four stats that point toward him being chosen for the Hall. He rarely appeared on the leaderboard and never won an MVP, except for the time he won the World Series MVP in 1984. Trammell did finish second to George Bell for MVP in 1987.
Dave Concepcion
Black Ink: 0
Gray Ink: 25
HOF Standards: 29.1
HOF Monitor: 106.5
Concepcion never led the league in a category, but he did show up in the Top Ten in multiple categories, such as singles, doubles, triples, and stolen bases. His best finish in the MVP voting was fourth, besides his All-Star MVP victory.
Tony Fernandez
Black Ink: 3
Gray Ink: 51
HOF Standards: 31.5
HOF Monitor: 74.0
Fernandez led the league one time for each triples and singles. His best showing in the MVP race was eighth.
Verdict
Ripken: In: No doubt about it.
Trammell: In: Borderline call, but his peak had some impressive seasons and his glove was strong.
Concepcion: Out: His bat was average at best, his glove was outstanding, and his peak wasn't great enough to land him in the Hall.
Fernandez: Out: His bat was stronger than Concepcion's, but his glove was a tad less valuable. He didn't have enough great seasons.
