2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Pitchers (and Wrap-up)
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by user Timothy Moreland (Bball3345)
Today, the Halls of Cooperstown may include additional plaques, as writers will vote on the 2007 Class. There are eight candidates at pitcher: Bert Blyleven, Tommy John, Bret Saberhagen, Orel Hershiser, Jack Morris, Bobby Witt, Goose Gossage, and Lee Smith.
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: First Base |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Third Base |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Shortstop |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Outfield/DH |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Pitchers (and Wrap-up) |
This article will evaluate players similar to this previous article. Also, check out Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot for another perspective of this year's ballot.
JAWS
First, each player will be evaluated by their JAWS score, which was created by Jay Jaffe at BaseballProspectus.com. The JAWS score uses the WARP(wins above replacement player) stat by adding the player's seven best seasons and their career WARP total, then dividing by two([PEAK + Career]/2).
Goose Gossage
Career: 87.9 Peak: 55.2 JAWS: 71.6
1975 and 1977 were tremendous seasons for Gossage. In between these two seasons, the White Sox tried to convert Goose to a starter, which flopped when compared to his success in the bullpen. He had a few other strong seasons, but faded quickly a few years after hitting 30-years-old. Somehow, he managed to hang around for about 8 years after he had become expendable.
Lee Smith
Career: 82.3 Peak: 46.5 JAWS: 64.4
Smith was a strikeout machine from the bullpen, which usually made up for any control issues. 1983, despite 10 losses, was his best season. He never really had any truly elite seasons.
Bert Blyleven
Career: 131.0 Peak: 63.0 JAWS: 97.0
Blyleven's 1973 season ranks among the all-time great seasons. He pitched over 300 innings with a 2.52 ERA, won 20 games, and threw 25 complete games with 9 shutouts. His follow-up in 1974 was extremely strong as well. Blyleven pitched effectively through his mid-30's before fading into his 40's.
Bret Saberhagen
Career: 85.6 Peak: 57.8 JAWS: 71.7
Saberhagen threw three elite seasons and two other notably strong ones, but had a few years in which he missed considerable time. 1989 was the best of his years, in which he won 23 games with a 2.16 ERA. Saberhagen succeeded more on his control than his dominance.
Jack Morris
Career: 78.5 Peak: 48.4 JAWS: 63.5
Jack Morris was a very good pitcher in his prime years, from the age of 28 to 32. Outside of these years he was merely good, at best. His career ERA was 3.90.
Tommy John
Career: 103.4 Peak: 45.8 JAWS: 74.6
Tommy John pitched for a long, long time, posting many above average years. He was never really an elite pitcher (1979 was the closest he came), but he did have a surgery named after him.
Orel Hershiser
Career: 85.5 Peak: 55.4 JAWS: 70.5
Hershiser peaked early and sustained it for three outstanding seasons. 1988, a season in which he went 23-8 with a 2.26 ERA, was Hershiser's best. Hershiser's strength was in not allowing the home run ball.
Bobby Witt
Career: 43.5 Peak: 31.6 JAWS: 37.6
Witt never resembled a Hall-of-Famer throughout his career. His best season was 1990 when he recorded a 3.36 ERA in 222.0 innings. He began his career as a tremendous strikeout pitcher with huge control issues. Later on, he cut down on his walks, but his strikeouts fell as well and he became more hittable. Witt never put it all together.
Hall of Fame Scores
Black Ink measures the number of times a player led the league in a category. Gray Ink measures a player's frequency in the top ten. HOF Standards provides a value to a player's career. HOF Monitor measures how likely it is that player will be voted in.
Further explanations can be found here: Baseball Reference explanation
Goose Gossage
Black Ink: 9
Gray Ink: 41
HOF Standards: 19.0
HOF Monitor: 126.0
Gossage led the league in Saves on three different occasions and that was the only time he led the league in any category. He never won a Cy Young award, but finished in the top six five times and even finished third in the MVP voting in 1980. In 1978, he won the Rolaids Relief award.
Lee Smith
Black Ink: 12
Gray Ink: 48
HOF Standards: 13.0
HOF Monitor: 135.0
Smith led the league in saves four times and finished second four times as well. His best finish in the Cy Young voting was second place, but he did win three Rolaids Relief awards.
Bert Blyleven
Black Ink: 16
Gray Ink: 239
HOF Standards: 50.0
HOF Monitor: 120.5
Blyleven did not lead the league very often, but he appeared in the top ten at a frequent rate. Three times, Bert led the league in shutouts, twice in innings, once in strikeouts, and once in WHIP. He never won a Cy Young award, but he finished in the top four three times.
Bret Saberhagen
Black Ink: 20
Gray Ink: 124
HOF Standards: 32.0
HOF Monitor: 70.5
Saberhagen led the league in wins once, WHIP twice, and ERA once. As well, he won two Cy Youngs and finished third on one occasion. He did not make the All-Star game in either of his Cy Young seasons.
Jack Morris
Black Ink: 20
Gray Ink: 193
HOF Standards: 39.0
HOF Monitor: 122.5
Morris led the league in wild pitches six times and ranks eighth all-time. Twice he led the league in wins and once in strikeouts. Morris finished in the top five in Cy Young voting five times, but never brought home the trophy.
Tommy John
Black Ink: 8
Gray Ink: 137
HOF Standards: 44.0
HOF Monitor: 111.0
Tommy John led the league in WHIP once and shutouts three times. He almost won the Cy Young, but settled for runner-up twice in his career.
Orel Hershiser
Black Ink: 20
Gray Ink: 129
HOF Standards: 34.0
HOF Monitor: 90.5
Hershiser won 23 games in 1988 to lead the league. He also led the league in innings three times and complete games once. Hershiser finished in the top five in Cy Young voting three times, not including his victory in 1988. Hershiser also won the NLCS MVP, WS MVP, and ALCS MVP.
Bobby Witt
Black Ink: 0
Gray Ink: 33
HOF Standards: 11.0
HOF Monitor: 7.0
Unless you count allowing the most walks in the league, which Witt did three times, most earned runs allowed, he did once, or most wild pitches, he did twice, Witt never led the league in any meaningful category. As well, he never appeared on a Cy Young ballot.
Verdict
Goose Gossage: In: The best reliever not yet in.
Lee Smith: In: #2 in saves, but is a closer call than Gossage, based on performance.
Bert Blyleven: In: He deserves to be in the Hall, period. This isn't the first-time I have written this on Armchair, but I still stand by it.
Bret Saberhagen: Out: 1989 was an awesome year, but he's not a Hall-of-Famer.
Jack Morris: Out: His peak years and his career value lag behind the other candidates.
Tommy John: Out: Long career, but never dominated.
Orel Hershiser: Out: Closer to a flash-in-the-pan than a Hall-of-Famer
Bobby Witt: Out: No...
My Final Ballot
