2007 MLB HOF Ballot: First Base
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
In seven days, the Halls of Cooperstown may include additional plaques, as writers will vote on the 2007 Class. I will evaluate each eligible player in the days leading up to the results. There are four candidates at first base: Mark McGwire, Don Mattingly, Steve Garvey, and Wally Joyner.
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: First Base |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Third Base |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Shortstop |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Outfield/DH |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Pitchers (and Wrap-up) |
This article will evaluate players similar to this previous article. Also, check out Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot for another perspective of this year's ballot.
JAWS
First, each player will be evaluated by their JAWS score, which was created by Jay Jaffe at BaseballProspectus.com. The JAWS score uses the WARP(wins above replacement player) stat by adding the player's seven best seasons and their career WARP total, then dividing by two([PEAK + Career]/2).
Mark McGwire
Career: 109.3 Peak: 68.4 JAWS: 88.9
Big Mac comes out favorably by this measurement. Of the four, only McGwire breaks 100 in career value and his peak sticks out well above Garvey and Joyner. Outside of '98, McGwire had two other WARP seasons of 10+: 1990 and 1992. Had McGwire not missed considerable time in 1993, 1994, and 1997, his career total would likely have been closer to 130.
Don Mattingly
Career: 89.0 Peak: 64.8 JAWS: 76.9
For Mattingly, 1984-1986 and arguably 1987 were all Hall-of-Fame seasons. In 1988, at the age of 27, Mattingly began his early decline. By the age of 34, Mattingly was out of baseball. The Yankees' first baseman peaked high and early, but did not have great longevity.
Steve Garvey
Career: 84.0 Peak: 54.0 JAWS: 69.0
Garvey played until he was 38, but failed to have a truly clear-cut Hall-of-Fame season. His glove was well above average, but his bat was fairly weak for a first baseman. After Garvey hit his thirties, he was nothing more than an average player.
Wally Joyner
Career: 82.4 Peak: 52.9 JAWS: 67.7
Joyner definitely did not have any Hall-of-Fame caliber campaigns. His '87 and '91 seasons were solid, but not elite by any measure.
Hall of Fame Scores
Black Ink measures the number of times a player led the league in a category. Gray Ink measures a player's frequency in the top ten. HOF Standards provides a value to a player's career. HOF Monitor measures how likely it is that player will be voted in.
Further explanations can be found here: Baseball Reference explanation
Mark McGwire
Black Ink: 36
Gray Ink: 110
HOF Standards: 42.0
HOF Monitor: 169.5
While never winning an MVP, McGwire led the league in multiple categories, multiple times. Most famously, McGwire held the All-Time Home Run record for three seasons.
Don Mattingly
Black Ink: 23
Gray Ink: 111
HOF Standards: 34.1
HOF Monitor: 133.5
Mattingly won a batting title in 1984 and an MVP the next season. He also led the league in doubles, OPS, RBIs, SLG, and hits, among others, at least once.
Steve Garvey
Black Ink: 12
Gray Ink: 142
HOF Standards: 31.5
HOF Monitor: 130.5
Garvey has led the league in games played six times and hits twice. As well, he won the 1974 MVP.
Wally Joyner
Black Ink: 0
Gray Ink: 16
HOF Standards: 24.9
HOF Monitor: 27.5
Unless you want to count sacrifice flies, Joyner has never led the league in anything.
Verdict
McGwire: In: Without a failed steroid test, McGwire's career stats place him in the Hall of Fame.
Mattingly: Out: He faded too soon to have a serious argument for the Hall.
Garvey: Out: He was a very good player, but never dominated like a Hall of Famer should
Joyner: Out: See Garvey
