2007 BBall's NL West Preview
| 11
|
by user Timothy Moreland (Bball3345)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Rotation ---------------------------- 1. Brandon Webb: Cy Young contender. Extreme groundball pitcher. 2. Randy Johnson: Struggled w/ mechanics last season when men reached base. Dominant at times, but risky. 3. Livan Hernandez: ERA will likely hover around 5.00. Very hittable. 4. Doug Davis: Average across the board. 5. Juan Cruz: Good strikeout pitcher. Struggles w/ command. Expect ERA in high-4.00s. CL Jose Valverde: Dominant stuff. Struggles with control. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Chris Snyder: Average catcher. Little power. Better glove than backup, Montero. 1B Conor Jackson: Decent on-base skills. Bat would be an asset anywhere but first. Average glove. 2B Orlando Hudson: Best defensive second baseman in the league. Best overall player in the infield. 3B Chad Tracy: Ordinary power. Still possibility of a breakout. SS Stephen Drew: High offensive upside. Weak defender. Good power for a SS. LF Eric Byrnes: Nice glove. 20-homer power. Needs to get on base more. CF Chris Young: 20/20 written all over him. Best upside on this team, by far. Slick fielder. RF Carlos Quentin: Power not impressive. Gets on base effectively. Tremendous glove in right field. -------------------------
Conclusion: Young lineup with average power around the field. Chris Young, and maybe Tracy, are the only players with a shot at 30 HRs. No one in this lineup will drive in 100 runs. Defensively, they are strong around the diamond, with the only potential weaknesses being at shortstop and third base. With Valverde being a slight dissapointment, the Dbacks bullpen does not have a shut-down closer. Just like last season, the Diamondbacks head into the year with only one dominant starter. Bottom line, this staff has one stud, a former star with potential #2 stuff, and three guys who belong at the back-end of a rotation.
Projection: 87-75 2nd in the NL West
Colorado Rockies
Rotation ---------------------------- 1. Jeff Francis: Does not have the talent, nor environment to keep his ERA near 4.00 again. 2. Aaron Cook: Lacks dominant stuff. Low walk rate. Keeps the ball on the ground. Best probability of success. 3. Byung Kim: Most dominating in terms of strikeout ability. ERA under 5.00. 4. Rodrigo Lopez: ERA around 5.00. Has been declining for a few years. Had bad luck last season (.333 BABIP). 5. Josh Fogg: Probably should not be in the majors, as a starter anyways. Far too hittable. CL Brian Fuentes: Strikeout machine. Decent control. Keeps the ball in the park. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Chris Iannetta: A young, talented catcher w/ great upside. Average defense. Solid bat for a catcher 1B Todd Helton: Has lost most of his power. Still has a smooth glove. Strong on-base skills remain. 2B Kaz Matsui: Could be replaced w/ a minor leaguer and no one would notice. Jamey Carroll should be starting here. 3B Garrett Atkins: Passed Helton as best overall player on the team. In his prime. SS Troy Tulowitzki: Liability on defense. His bat should make up for most of the loss. Not a huge upside. LF Matt Holliday: Best hitter on the team. 30-homer potential. Should rank near the top of the league in BA. CF Willy Taveras: Outstanding defense. Barely average with the bat. Best speed on the team. RF Brad Hawpe: A notch below Atkins, Holliday, Helton, and Iannetta with the bat. Glovework is an asset -------------------------
Conclusion: There is a big weakness at 2B with Matsui. Jamey Carroll would be better suited to start. Atkins, Holliday, and Helton provide a strong middle of the lineup. Atkins and Holliday could both hit 30 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .400 OBP. Success will depend on youngsters Tulowitzki and Iannetta coming through. Francis, Cook, and Kim are all middle-of-the-rotation starters. With ERA's below 5.00 in Coors, Francis and Cook were valuable players last season. I would expect all of the starters to finish with ERAs right around 5.00 this season, with the exception of Fogg, who will probably be closer to 6.00 than 5.00. All five of the starters are 30-years-old or younger, so none of them should see a huge decline. Fuentes has the stuff to be a good, if not elite, closer. Fuentes, Ramirez, and Corpas give the Rockies three good relievers. The rest of the bullpen lacks a strong arm. If the starters fail to go deep into games, this bullpen could easily cost them games.
Projection: 75-87 5th in the NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Rotation ---------------------------- 1. Jason Schmidt: May not be an ace anymore. Best stuff on this staff. 2. Derek Lowe: Extreme groundball pitcher. No strikeout ability. 3. Brad Penny: Great control. Just enough dominance to be a very effective pitcher. 4. Randy Wolf: Hole in the rotation. ERA will likely be in the high-4.00s. Allows too many HRs. 5. Chad Billingsley: Serious control problems. Should have a mid-4.00s ERA. CL Takashi Saito: 37-year-old sophomore. Blew away major leaguers last season. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Russell Martin: Average bat, even for a catcher. Tremendous defense. High upside. 1B Nomar Garciaparra: 500 at bats is a stretch. Not good defensively at first. 2B Jeff Kent: Only hitter well above average. Little power left, but gets on base. 3B Wilson Betemit: Looks to be a flop. Weakest bat outside of Pierre. Nothing positive on defense. SS Rafael Furcal: Awesome on defense. Good bat for a shortstop. Best player on the team. LF Luis Gonzalez: Don't expect 50+ home runs (or 20 for that matter). No longer provides much to his team. CF Juan Pierre: Best wheels on the team. RF Andre Ethier: Not a huge upside. Fairly good speed. Decent on-base skills. -------------------------
Conclusion: All below average defensively, except for Furcal and Martin. The lineup lacks any power. Furcal, Garciaparra, and Kent are all average or above at their positions. Matt Kemp will fill in nicely when Luis Gonzalez shows his age. Kemp, Andy LaRoche, and Olmedo Saenz are all strong bats off the bench. The rotation is very strong 1-3, but then falls off a little. All of them are major-league quality pitchers. The bullpen features an outstanding closer/set-up punch with Saito/Broxton. The rest of the bullpen is weak.
Projection: 81-81 3rd in the NL West
San Diego Padres
Rotation ---------------------------- 1. Jake Peavy: Dissapointing 2006 season. Best pitcher in the NL. Will be the 2007 Cy Young. 2. Chris Young: Has tremendous stuff. Home run ball may sting him a bit. Expect ERA in the high 3.00s. 3. Greg Maddux: Control as good as ever. One of the best #3 starters around. 4. David Wells: ERA around 4.00 as he continues into his mid-40s. Pinpoint control. 5. Clay Hensley: Hittable. Keeps the ball in the park. CL Trevor Hoffman: Step down in dominance last season. Great control. Approaching 40-years-old. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Josh Bard: Average glovework. No power. Not a bad OBP. 1B Adrian Gonzalez: Could have a slightly more potent bat at first. Superb fielder. 2B Marcus Giles: Glove has turned into a positive. Power has declined since 2003. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff: Powerful bat. Huge upside. Defense is a plus. SS Khalil Greene: Overrated defensively. Still has potential in his bat. Good power for a SS. LF Termel Sledge: Deserves to be in the starting lineup. CF Mike Cameron: In his mid-30's. Still very fast. RF Brian Giles: Will bounce back from "down" year. Best offensive player in the division outside of Bonds. Terrible defense. -------------------------
Conclusion: The lineup contains a bunch of average bats without any holes. The Padres will field an extremely well-balanced lineup. Their success is likely dependent on either a bounceback from Brian Giles or on Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez meeting their potential. Russell Branyan, Todd Walker, and Jose Cruz Jr. are all starting-quality players that will come off the bench. Besides Brian Giles, they are solid defensively. The rotation is solid from top to bottom. Peavy should compete for the Cy Young with Brandon Webb while the Padres duke it out with the DBacks for the division title. Hoffman is still one of the better closers in the league. Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith are two of the top setup guys in the NL.
Projection: 90-72 1st in the NL West
San Francisco Giants
Rotation ---------------------------- 1 Barry Zito: Dominance has fallen for a few years. Control issues at times. Expect ERA in the high-3.00s/ low 4.00s. 2 Matt Cain: Best stuff in the rotation. Extreme flyball pitcher. 3 Matt Morris: Pinpoint control. Does not blow hitters away. Will improve on last season. 4 Noah Lowry: Similar to a younger Matt Morris. 5 Jonathan Sanchez: Suitable #5 starter. Potential to blow ball by hitters. Young. CL Armando Benitez: Lacks dominance of a true closer. ----------------------------
Lineup ------------------------- C Ben Molina: Weak defense. Weaker bat. Lacks power and on-base skills. 1B Rich Aurilia: Bat might pass at SS, but not at 1B. OPS will not reach .800 again. 2B Ray Durham: One of the worst gloves in the league. Still, may be best player on the team. 3B Pedro Feliz: Worst hitter on the team. Defense is his only asset, and he is merely average at it. SS Omar Vizquel: Formerly superb defense is gone. No power. Gets on base enough to be effective. LF Barry Bonds: If he plays, still one of the most valuable players in the league. Nothing left in his legs. CF Dave Roberts: One of the fastest players in the MLB. Still just an average player. RF Randy Winn: Decent on base skills. Value wrapped up in his excellent glovework. -------------------------
Conclusion: Besides Randy Winn, nothing going on defensively. Not a single player below 32-years-old in the starting lineup. If Bonds does not play regularly, this team has no power threat. Ryan Klesko and Aurilia will combine for decent production at 1B. If Durham goes down with an injury, this team is done for. Zito/Cain is a good duo of #2 starters with #1 potential. Tim Lincecum deserves a spot in the rotation as soon as he is ready. The rotation lacks a true ace. Kevin Correia and Vinnie Chulk are good setup men. The bullpen only goes three deep with any confidence.
Projection: 78-84 4th in the NL West
