2007 BBall's MLB Busts
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by user Timothy Moreland (Bball3345)
Here are the players who are going to fail to meet expectations and/or decline substantially from last season.
--------------------------- 1. Jeremy Sowers 2. Gary Sheffield 3. Anibal Sanchez 4. Chuck James 5. Brian Roberts ---------------------------
Jeremy Sowers
Reasons for Optimism: In 14 starts last season, Sowers recorded a 3.57 ERA and went 7-4. Not bad for a 23-year-old. He also walked only 20 batters in 88.3 innings.
Reasons for Concern: Sowers also struck out only 35 batters in those 88.3 innings. The list of successful pitchers with that low of a strikeout rate is not very long. Sowers has become less and less dominant each level he moves too. His ERA can only go up from here.
Gary Sheffield
Reasons for Optimism: Sheffield should be healed from last season's injuries, which limited him to 39 games. He will also be playing DH, a much less demanding position than the outfield. Last season, Sheffield still managed to hit .298, one point above his career average.
Reasons for Concern: 38-year-olds tend to decline quickly, especially ones with potential lingering injuries. His line of .298/.355/.450 was the worst for Sheffield since, well, a very very long time. If healthy, Sheffield will hit well enough to justify a starting spot; however, that is a big "if." The future Hall-of-Famer's days of All-Star games and sheer dominance at the plate are over.
Anibal Sanchez
Reasons for Optimism: Sanchez was flat-out effective last season. His 2.83 ERA and 10-3 record were future-ace-potential numbers, especially for a 22-year-old.
Reasons for Concern: Sancez's batting average on balls in play(BABIP) was a miniscule .243, which points to luck being on his side. This number will trend back toward .290-.300 in 2007. Sanchez does not have major control problems, but he doesn't exactly have pinpoint control. In his future, Sanchez could be an All-Star pitcher, but 2007's regression to the mean will push his ERA over 4.00.
Chuck James
Reasons for Optimism: In 124.7 major league innings, James has a 3.68 ERA, with an 11-4 record. James has had impressive ERAs throughtout the minors, which was a quick trip for him. He went from Rookie ball to the Majors in two years.
Reasons for Concern: James' three peripheral stats were not especially strong. His HR rate was high, his control, which he has had issues with in the past, was iffy, and his strikeout rate was barely high enough. James was also helped by a low BABIP of .250. If James' pitches like he did last year, and his BABIP regresses, then we are looking at a pitcher with an ERA closer to 5.00 than 4.00.
Brian Roberts
Reasons for Optimism: In 2005, Roberts was one of the most valuable players in the league. He slugged .515, with 45 doubles and 18 HRs, and had a stellar .387 OBP. At 29-years-old, Roberts is in the prime of his career.
Reasons for Concern: In 2006, Roberts' line dropped down to a solid, but not spectacular .286/.347/.410. The question is, was the true Roberts the 2006 version or the 2005 version? The power does not seem to be real. 2005 was Roberts' only season with an Isolated Power number above average. Also, his BABIP was much higher than normal for Roberts in 2005. 2005 was a fluke, and the future looks to be a further decline, rather than a rebound to 2005. Those expecting 2007 to be a bounceback season for Roberts will be highly dissapointed.
