2007 American League Preview
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by user Davis21wylie
See also: 2007 National League Preview
Ah, yeah... Can you smell it? The freshly cut grass of the outfield, the dirt of the basepaths -- spring training is just around the corner. And that can only mean one thing: it's time to get back to my roots. Has it been a year on the Armchair already? I can hardly believe it myself! Well, just like last year, I have projected numbers for each of the 2007 season's MLB regulars, running them through the statistical blender to project standings. In fact, this time around I even share the raw numbers that make up the team W-L projections. (Note that these numbers are heavily regressed to the mean, so player and team performances will vary more -- for better or for worse -- in real life than they do in my projections).
Anyway, without further ado, I present my AL picks. Enjoy...
American League
Projected Standings
AL East
1. New York Yankees (Projected: 95-67)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
97-65, Finished 1st in AL Eastern Division Scored 930 runs, Allowed 767 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 95-67 Managed by Joe Torre Ballpark: Yankee Stadium II Attendance: 4,248,067 (1st out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 95/Pitching - 96 (over 100 favors batters) Postseason: Lost AL Division Series (3-1) to Detroit Tigers 2007 Projected Record: 95-67 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 5.69 (1st) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.78 (4th)
Offense & Fielding: This just in: The Bombers can... well, bomb. Say what you will about their characteristically creaky, high-priced vets, but this is once again the most dynamic offense in the majors, by a wide margin. Sure, Johnny The Traitor is going to decline, and what's up with using Doug Mientkiewicz at first anyway? (There simply aren't enough slick plays afield to make up for his declining offensive skillset, even in a platoon.) But these other guys are 1927 Yankees-style scary, from Abreu, Giambi, Cano, and A-Rod to everybody's favorite shortstop/demigod. If there's a weakness, it's depth, as Melky Cabrera is just about the only reserve they'd be comfortable playing in the event of a long-term injury to one of the starters. Defensively, the Yanks are solid, especially if Rodriguez bounces back to his previous Gold-Glove form.
The Last Word: As crazy as it sounds, 1,000 runs might not be out of the question with this bunch...
Pitching: There are two schools of thought on Chien-Ming Wang: One says that he simply puts the ball in play too much to maintain the 3.63 ERA he posted in '06; the other says that he's such a severe ground-ball pitcher that he can maintain that performance. Which school will be in session this year? Probably a combination of both -- his grounders keep gopher-balls to a minimum, but you've got to hope & pray that they find gloves as often as they did last year... Look for an ERA hovering around 4.00. As for these other guys: Mike Mussina + Andy Pettitte = The makings of a solid rotation. Kei Igawa's expected level of production is pretty much an unknown, though... much the same as that legendary paragon of work ethic, Carl Pavano. Meh, they're just keeping spots warm for Philip Hughes anyway. Bullpen-wise, they've got Mo Rivera -- 'nuff said. Also, expect Kyle Farnsworth to be good again; just don't expect Scott Proctor to put up a 3.52 ERA again.
The Last Word: Pitching will be the weakness of this team, but it's all relative. All in all, there really isn't much to complain about when it comes to this staff.
Projected 2007 Stats:
2007 Outlook: Exchange Pettitte for the departed Randy Johnson, and what have you got? Another Division Championship-caliber squad, apparently. The offense will be just as devastating as it was a year ago, and, believe it or not, the pitching will probably be more consistent as well. Of course, none of it will mean a thing to NY fans if the team flops again in the postseason. By the way, is this season Joe Torre's final reckoning? In the final year of his contract, maybe he'll finally learn how to manage his bullpen... But I digress. At any rate, mark these guys down as 2007 AL East Champs.
2. Boston Red Sox (Projected: 94-68)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 86-76, Finished 3rd in AL Eastern Division Scored 820 runs, Allowed 825 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 81-81 Managed by Terry Francona Ballpark: Fenway Park II Attendance: 2,930,588 (4th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 102/Pitching - 101 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 94-68 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 5.46 (2nd) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.59 (2nd)
Offense & Fielding: So, was this offense disappointing enough for you in 2006? After three straight years with at least 900 runs, the Sox lineup regressed to a mere 820 after two key cogs, Jason Varitek and Coco Crisp, got injured and ineffective. The good news for Red Sox Nation is that both should be better in 2007 with improved health. Moreover, the team added fragile-but-effective J.D. Drew to replace Trot Nixon in RF, and picked up Julio Lugo to play short, an immense offensive improvement over Alex Gonzalez. Oh, yeah, and there are these two Dominican guys in the lineup... I forget their names, but word is that they're pretty good ballplayers. New starting 2B Dustin Pedroia is a Marcus Giles clone -- 2003-2005 Marcus Giles, that is. Expect an OPS near .800 in 2007, then more where that came from down the road. One question with the Drew acquisition, though: Whither Wily Mo? Defensively, the BoSox had steady gloves but lacked range last year, facts that probably won't improve with Lugo succeeding Gonzalez at SS.
The Last Word: Pending health, Boston's attack will almost certainly get untracked again, which is bad news for their AL East foes.
Pitching: Who is Daisuke Matsuzaka? Truly an international man of mystery, Dice-K is the guy that no one can quite figure out... Some say he'll immediately be a Cy Young-caliber hurler; others insist he'll evoke horrible memories of fat toads! And just what the hell is a gyroball anyway? Cutting through the fog, I say Matsuzaka makes an instant (positive) impact on the Sox rotation... although the Cy talk might be pushing it. Speaking of unknown quantities, what can the Sox expect out of erstwhile ace Josh Beckett in 2007? Wildly successful in Florida, Beckett was a 5.01 ERA-toting flop in his first year at the Hub, allowing a staggering 1.58 HR/9 innings. The good news: he'll almost certainly progress to the mean this year, meaning no 5.00+ ERA or 30+ HRA. The bad news: his falling K-rate means he's probably not the bona fide ace Boston thought they were getting in the first place. And where do I even begin when forecasting Jonathan Papelbon's conversion to the starting rotation? At least you know what you'll get out of Curt Schilling, though, and Tim Wakefield can probably keep doing his thing until he's 50. Meanwhile, the bullpen is stocked with young and/or quasi-effective arms... although Francona will definitely need to sort out the situation at closer, lest Globe reporters start their 2003 "sky is falling" routine again. And is Joel Pineiro really the answer? Um...
The Last Word: Boston has a potentially strong rotation, although not one without question marks. Meanwhile, the situation at closer must be resolved, and soon.
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Yes, the Sox slipped to third in the East last year after a late-season swoon, but don't think for a second that this team isn't going to contend for a World Series again in 2007. The Matsuzaka addition should solidify the staff, which was a real weakness last season, and improved health (knock on wood, J.D. Drew) should propel the offense back to its 2003-05 levels. Assuming the bullpen pecking order is sorted out, Boston should at least return to the postseason in 2007.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (Projected: 80-82)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 87-75, Finished 2nd in AL Eastern Division Scored 809 runs, Allowed 754 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 86-76 Managed by John Gibbons Ballpark: Rogers Centre Attendance: 2,302,212 (8th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 103/Pitching - 103 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 80-82 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.90 (7th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.96 (8th)
Offense & Fielding: As was the case last year, the Jays will rely heavily on heart of their order to produce runs, since the bottom of the lineup is stocked with guys only around for their D (or, in Royce Clayton's case, for no apparent reason whatsoever). Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Frank Thomas, Troy Glaus, and Lyle Overbay comprise one of the strongest 2-6 lineups in the game, but the overall offense will be dragged down by the glovemen and Reed Johnson, who's sure to regress to the mean (or did you think he was a legit .319 hitter?). It could be worse, though -- at least Russ Adams has been relieved of starting 2B duties, which is probably worth a win by itself. Also, the Blue Jays are one of the slickest-fielding teams in the AL, especially in the outfield.
The Last Word: This isn't the worst offense in the world. It's not the best, either.
Pitching: In Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett (assuming the latter's health), the Jays have two of the most dominant starting pitchers in the American League, but the rest of this rotation is pretty shaky. The state of newcomer John Thomson's shoulder is anything but a sure thing, Gustavo Chacin is nothing special even when his elbow isn't bothering him, Tomo Ohka is an injury-prone soft-tosser, Shaun Marcum has potential he just can't seem to tap into, and Josh Towers was probably the worst pitcher in the AL last year. At least closer B.J. Ryan is a rock in the bullpen, and Jason Frasor and Jeremy Accardo are solid options; sinkerballer Brandon League could also exceed expectations. But there are a lot of marginal arms in the mix as well.
The Last Word: Another case of being okay, but not really all that good. Aside from Halladay and Ryan, there are no guarantees here.
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Last year's 87-75, second-place finish may have represented serious progress for the franchise... if the Red Sox hadn't been hit with a downright Biblical series of injuries down the stretch, that is. In reality, Toronto is still merely the third-best team in the East, and a distant third at that. While the offense is solid enough, the rotation is full of question marks, and they don't really have any consistent relievers to form a bridge to Ryan. Unless either New York or Boston falters, don't expect more than third place from the Jays.
4. Baltimore Orioles (Projected: 70-92)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 70-92, Finished 4th in AL Eastern Division Scored 768 runs, Allowed 899 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 69-93 Managed by Sam Perlozzo Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards Attendance: 2,153,139 (10th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 99/Pitching - 99 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 70-92 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.84 (11th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.56 (13th)
Offense & Fielding: Despite the presence of stalwart SS Miguel Tejada and gifted RF prospect Nick Markakis, the Orioles sport a generally powerless, speed-oriented offense that was well below average last season and should be well below average again in 2007. At the plate, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, Brian Roberts, and Kevin Millar all wish they could reclaim their form of several years ago, while Jay Gibbons simply wishes he could stay healthy for a full season. Meanwhile, O's fans wish Corey Patterson were more patient and could hit lefthanders, and they really wish the team had more depth. If wishes were horses... Defensively, Baltimore is mediocre, despite quality play from Tejada, Patterson, and C Ramon Hernandez.
The Last Word: A .424 slugging percentage simply isn't going to cut it -- especially in this division.
Pitching: Aside from Erik Bedard, who broke out in a big way last season and is a legit front-line starter, this rotation is nothing if not underwhelming. Kris Benson's skills are heading south in a hurry, Daniel Cabrera has no control whatsoever, and Jaret Wright has a well-documented history of mediocrity. At least youngster Adam Loewen shows promise, and Hayden Penn isn't as bad as his ERA would suggest. Closer Chris Ray pitched well last season, but a second-half drop in K-rate makes him a prime candidate to go all Dan Kolb on everybody, except without the grounders (and many more HR). With that said, though, the O's bullpen isn't really horrible, boasting serviceable arms like Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, and Scott Williamson.
The Last Word: This rotation is long on "potential", but way short on results. But hey, at least the bullpen (especially middle relief) has been improved since last season, so I guess that's something...
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: After taking other teams' sloppy seconds in the free agent market, the Orioles look only marginally better than they did last season. In a division that features the two biggest spenders in baseball, and maybe the best third fiddle in any division (Toronto), Baltimore's lot will once again be to fend off Tampa for 4th place, and pray that the pitchers come around someday.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Projected: 70-92)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 61-101, Finished 5th in AL Eastern Division Scored 689 runs, Allowed 856 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 65-97 Managed by Joe Maddon Ballpark: Tropicana Field Attendance: 1,368,950 (14th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 102/Pitching - 102 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 70-92 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.83 (12th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.55 (12th)
Offense & Fielding: Theoretically, Tampa's offense shouldn't be that bad. After all, the core of their lineup features a number of the brightest prospects in the American League: Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, Jonny Gomes, Jorge Cantu, etc... Trouble is, aside from Crawford, none of them have ever actually delivered on their promise: Cantu was a shell of himself after breaking his foot last season, Baldelli can't stay healthy to save his life, the volatile Young was suspended 50 games last year for tossing his bat at an umpire, Upton has regressed since his impressive 2004 (and is a terrible fielder), and Gomes is much too steeped in the Three True Outcomes to be taken seriously a regular. So in the face of such uncertainty last year, the Rays resorted to small-ball tactics... and scored 4.25 runs per game, last in the AL by a mile. Sadly, 2007 will probably hold more of the same, even after adding solid Japanese 3B Akinori Iwamura in the offseason, because too many things have to happen for this offense to get respectable. Will they improve? Sure -- there's nowhere to go but up, right? But in the final analysis, this O has way too many question marks to even be average. Oh, and defensively, Tampa is abominable.
The Last Word: C'mon, Rocco, we just want a full season. You, too, Delmon -- but for other reasons...
Pitching: When healthy, southpaw Scott Kazmir is a bona fide stud, but shoulder inflammation slowed him in the second half of 2006. They'd better hope he's over that ailment in 2007, because other than James Shields, who's actually still young and promising, the rest of this rotation is pure AAAA material. Casey Fossum, Jae Seo, J.P. Howell, Edwin Jackson, and Jason Hammel? What, was Aaron Small not available? The bullpen is similarly execrable, as Seth McClung's ERA threatens to balloon north of 6.00 every time he takes the mound. At least middle relief contains some mediocre arms (in case you didn't notice, "mediocre" is compliment on this staff): neither Dan Miceli, Tim Corcoran, Ruddy Lugo, nor Brian Stokes is horrible per se, so that's something, I guess. And when former Japanese All-Star Shinji Mori comes back from his torn labrum at midseason, they'll... still be horrible. Sorry.
The Last Word: Seriously, have you ever seen this many worthless hurlers in one place at the same time?
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Not good. Again. The offense has more holes than Windows XP security, and the pitching staff is a veritable Superfund site. So expect fewer than 70 wins. Again.
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (Projected: 90-72)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 78-84, Finished 4th in AL Central Division Scored 870 runs, Allowed 782 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 89-73 Managed by Eric Wedge Ballpark: Jacobs Field Attendance: 1,997,995 (11th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 97/Pitching - 98 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 90-72 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 5.36 (3rd) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.74 (3rd)
Offense & Fielding: Not much to find fault with here -- these guys can put up runs with the best of them. Grady Sizemore is totally awesome, and we probably haven't even seen his best work yet -- what if he learns to hit LHPs? DH Travis Hafner was maybe the best hitter in the AL last year (not that anybody noticed), and Victor Martinez provides insane production for a catcher. Tribe fans hope SS Jhonny Peralta will bounce back from a disappointing 2006, and that getting 2B Josh Barfield was worth giving up The Kouz, but at least Casey Blake, Jason Michaels, David Dellucci, and erstwhile Dirt Dog Trot Nixon should be solid (if unspectacular) options in the OF. 3B Andy Marte took a step backward last year, but he's still a grade A prospect. Defensively, Cleveland isn't very good, finishing second-to-last in AL fielding percentage and fifth-to-last in defensive efficiency.
The Last Word: They're not the Yankees, sure, and they may not even be able to match the Red Sox in scoring this year, but they're still a formidable group of hitters.
Pitching: The Indians also boast more than a few quality arms, starting with crooked-capped southpaw C.C. Sabathia, who could be primed for a career year. Fellow lefties Cliff Lee (weakness: gopheritis) and Jeremy Sowers (weakness: Cornejo-esque K rate) don't fare quite as well as Sabathia, but they're still innings-munchers with above-average potential. RHP Jake Westbrook rounds out the rotation leaders, and while he's too extreme-flyballish for some tastes, he scarfs down innings and might just post a mid-3s ERA. 5th starter Paul Byrd is a soft-tosser whose ERA could just as easily be under 4.00 or over 5.00. The bullpen, led by closer Joe Borowski, looks to be vastly improved over last season's disaster area.
The Last Word: The bullpen (and their 23 blown saves and 4.66 ERA) was practically the only thing holding these guys back last season. The bullpen's largely fixed now. You do the math...
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Since 1950, only six teams have underperformed their pythagorean expectation by as many games as the 2006 Indians, and Cleveland had more wins than any of them. In other words, by the power vested in me by the plexiglas principle, I now pronounce the Cleveland Indians... the 2007 AL Central Champs.
2. Detroit Tigers (Projected: 82-80)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 95-67, Finished 2nd in AL Central Division *Won AL Pennant* Scored 822 runs, Allowed 675 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 95-67 Managed by Jim Leyland Ballpark: Comerica Park Attendance: 2,595,937 (5th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 99/Pitching - 99 (over 100 favors batters) Postseason: Lost World Series (4-1) to St. Louis Cardinals Won AL Championship Series (4-0) over Oakland Athletics Won AL Division Series (3-1) over New York Yankees 2007 Projected Record: 82-80 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 5.04 (4th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.99 (9th)
Offense & Fielding: Aside from the addition of Gary Sheffield, the Tigers' lineup looks basically intact from last season's World Series team. That group largely relied on power and contact hitting over patience at the plate, but they still managed to score 5.07 RPG, good for 5th in the AL. Jim Leyland would no doubt like for them to be more disciplined, however, and Sheffield will definitely help them in that area (count on a walk rate upwards of 12%). Meanwhile, expect some Granderson growth as he approaches his prime, and continued production from studs Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez. In short, this offense should be just fine looking ahead to 2007. The Tigers also enjoy one of the finest defenses in baseball -- when their pitchers aren't busy throwing the ball into the outfield, that is.
The Last Word: With everybody back, expect Detroit to flat-out bomb again.
Pitching: 1st-place pitching carried Detroit to the Series last year, so naturally they'll be just as lights-out this year, right? Um... Okay, so Jeremy Bonderman is a stud, that we can agree on. But behind him there are some serious regression risks: Justin Verlander benefitted from a low BABIP and high strand rate (his 4.24 2nd-half ERA is more indicative of his skills than his full-season 3.63). Kenny Rogers is a 42-year-old finesse pitcher whose doom has been imminent for years -- eventually, age + luck has to catch up to him, right? Similarly, beware Nate Robertson's 5-10, 4.50 2nd half as his high 2006 strand rate comes back to haunt him. Mike Maroth is filler material at best, Zach Miner's control is shaky and his ERA as a starter was 5.31, closer Todd Jones' success depends completely on his grounders finding gloves, Wil Ledezma's ERA fluctuates more than the price of oil, Fernando Rodney is even wilder than Miner, and Joel Zumaya is even wilder than Rodney. Now, do I think all of these guys are going to implode? No, but I don't think people should be as high on Detroit's pitching as they are -- there are simply too many decline risks here.
The Last Word: Could they finish first in ERA again? Absolutely. Could they slip to 8th again? Absolutely.
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Detroit is still one of the best teams in the AL, but they may have peaked with last season's brilliance. Moreover, don't be surprised if they suffer from the dreaded World Series Hangover.
3. Minnesota Twins (Projected: 81-81)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 96-66, Finished 1st in AL Central Division Scored 801 runs, Allowed 683 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 93-69 Managed by Ron Gardenhire Ballpark: Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome Attendance: 2,285,018 (9th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 98/Pitching - 98 (over 100 favors batters) Postseason: Lost AL Division Series (3-0) to Oakland Athletics 2007 Projected Record: 81-81 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.78 (13th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.78 (5th)
Offense & Fielding: Despite posting the best batting average in the American League, the Twins were vanilla average on offense last year, checking in with only 4.94 RPG. Furthermore, they put up that ordinary total even as Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Mike Cuddyer, the cornerstones of the lineup, were having career years that they may never be able to repeat. Meanwhile, the rest of this lineup is pretty punchless -- Minny slugged a below-average .425 a year ago, just 5 points higher than the Devil Rays. Rondell White proved last year that he's miles away from even being a passable hitter, ditto Nick Punto, ditto Jason Kubel (DH? Are they insane?), and ditto Jason Bartlett, whose SLG projects to be south of .400. Don't worry, though, the bench also contains similar mediocrities (like Jason Tyner and Jeff Cirillo), just in case one of the mediocre starters goes down. And, just like the hitters, the Twins' defense (other than Torii Hunter) is rather unexceptional, making the routine plays but lacking the range to do anything more. All in all, pretty uninspired stuff.
The Last Word: Despite the (well-deserved) hype surrounding Mauer and Morneau, this is a downright pedestrian offense.
Pitching: At least the staff is something to get excited about. It all starts with Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball, Joe Nathan, the best closer in baseball, and Juan Rincon, the best setup man in baseball. And if Francisco Liriano were healthy and Brad Radke were still playing, this would be the best pitching staff in baseball... But, sadly, the former is not healthy, and the latter retired this offseason. And without them, the Twins must turn to a number of arms that could go either way. Prospects Boof Bonser and Matt Garza are solid enough, but sinkerballer Carlos Silva looked awful last year, and newcomer Ramon Ortiz is all but washed-up. At least the middle-relief corps is quality, led by Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek.
The Last Word: Without Liriano, they won't be the best, but they'll still be among the elite when it's all said and done.
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: It took a resilient bunch to overcome a 10½-game deficit at the beginning of August last season, but it will take even more fortitude to stage a return trip to the postseason in a division that is once again shaping up to be baseball's very best. Without several key starters, and with an offense that has nowhere to go but down (.319 team BABIP and .296 with RISP will be hard to repeat), they may be facing even longer division odds today than they did on August 6, 2006.
4. Chicago White Sox (Projected: 78-84)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 90-72, Finished 3rd in AL Central Division Scored 868 runs, Allowed 794 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 88-74 Managed by Ozzie Guillen Ballpark: U.S. Cellular Field Attendance: 2,957,414 (3rd out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 103/Pitching - 102 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 78-84 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.95 (6th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.16 (10th)
Offense & Fielding: Who knew that this offense would explode last season? After riding their pitching & defense to a World Championship in 2005, everyone expected the 2006 Fighting Guillens to stick with the girl they took to the dance... But, remarkably, the Pale Hose instead turned into an offensive juggernaut, trailing only the Yankees and Indians in run scoring (and they were behind the latter by merely 2 runs). The arrival of vintage Jim Thome greatly helped the Paul Konerko-led core, as did a surprisingly monstrous season by Jermaine Dye. In fact, when all was said and done, they had become a much more intimidating lineup than the small-ball-obsessed 2005 version of the team. But how much of that momentum will be carried over to 2007? At 36, Thome is a good candidate to regress to the mean this season, and I wouldn't count on a repeat performance from Dye, either. Konerko is extremely consistent, but the supporting cast is hit-or-miss: Tadahito Iguchi is a quality (if aging) performer, but Juan Uribe was awful last year, and the CF contingent of Darin Erstad and Scott Podsednik is all hype and no substance. Oh, and Ozzie is promising more emphasis on small-ball this season. All signs point to a decline. Defensively, the ChiSox are quite good, thanks in part to Joe Crede at third and Brian Anderson in center.
The Last Word: Hope you enjoyed all those dingers last year, Sox fans...
Pitching: Who knew that this staff would implode last season? After sporting the best pitching corps in the 2005 American League, it was widely assumed that Chicago would carry that trend over into 2006... But, once again, things didn't exactly go as expected for this team last year: instead of having one of the AL's best staffs, the Sox had one of its most inconsistent, especially from July on. The culprit wasn't even the injury bug -- Chicago pitchers just dramatically lost effectiveness in the second half of the season. Four-fifths of that erratic rotation return for 2007 (Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Javier Vazquez), but they should at least prove more capable this season than they were a year ago. However, Freddy Garcia was dealt in the offseason, and the fifth starter could be anybody: Gavin Floyd, John Danks, knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, etc. At least the bullpen shows promise -- if Bobby Jenks rediscovers his control and Mike MacDougal/Matt Thornton prove their respective 2006's weren't flukes, that is. All in all, there's still some upside here, but a plethora of question marks as well.
The Last Word: All but a handful of the key arms from the WS team are gone. Judging from the performances of the guys that stuck around, this might not be a bad thing...
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Who knows what to expect out of this team anymore? If the staff improves, this could be a 90-plus-win team again... But if not (and if the offense regresses), they could easily become afterthoughts in the toughest division race in baseball. Whatever happens, though, it's sure to be Ozzie-tastic! Let's call a Wild Card their ceiling, just to be safe.
5. Kansas City Royals (Projected: 70-92)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 62-100, Finished 5th in AL Central Division Scored 757 runs, Allowed 971 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 63-99 Managed by Buddy Bell Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium Attendance: 1,372,638 (13th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 107/Pitching - 106 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 70-92 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.90 (8th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.61 (14th)
Offense & Fielding: I know it sounds weird, but the Royals offense isn't really all that bad. David DeJesus is kind of underrated (in a way that only a Kansas City Royal can be), Mark Teahen was actually very good last season and projects for even more growth in '07, Mike Sweeney can still (theoretically) mash when healthy, new 1B Ryan Shealy seems like a solid enough hitter... Oh, and there's also some rookie named Alex Gordon on the roster -- who totally looks like the second coming of George Brett! Okay, so maybe that's pushing it, but he will definitely contend for ROY honors this year, unlike that other rookie I touted similarly last year who turned out to be a complete and utter disappointment. In fact, the core mentioned above is so good that KC should be almost average offensively, despite the continued, unwarranted presence of Angel Berroa in the lineup. Defensively, the Royals are pretty terrible (I'm looking at you, Emil Brown and Angel Berroa), although Teahen, DeJesus, and Mark Grudzielanek do their best to prove otherwise.
The Last Word: Hey, at least you won't be able to blame these guys when they lose 100 games again...
Pitching: Ugh, where to begin? For starters, this was the worst staff in baseball last year -- by, like, a half a run. So, recognizing the godforsaken state of the club's pitching, Royals management obviously made it their mission this offseason to drastically improve the staff, finally stopping the team from being a national laughingstock... Oh, wait. They didn't do that at all. They signed Gil Meche for $55 million. But, hey, at least Odalis Perez, Luke Hudson, Brian Bannister, and Zach Greinke couldn't possibly be as bad as Mark Redman, Runelvys Hernandez, Scott Elarton, and Jeremy Affeldt were last year... right? And, who knows, maybe closer Octavio Dotel still has something left in the tank after Tommy John surgery... Hey, it could happen! Aw, let's be honest: there isn't enough beer in the state of Missouri to make the Royals' pitching look good.
The Last Word: Some of the starters have to break the 5.00-ERA barrier, right? Right? Hello?
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: As usual, the Royals stink. Despite notions that John Schuerholz would have taught Dayton Moore a thing or two during the latter's stay with the Braves, that Meche deal was an absolute joke, and the pitching staff is still flat-out abysmal. Sure, the offense should be improved, but what difference does that make when you're giving up six runs per game? They'll definitely flirt with 100 losses again.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels de Los Angeles (Projected: 88-74)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 89-73, Finished 2nd in AL Western Division Scored 766 runs, Allowed 732 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 84-78 Managed by Mike Scioscia Ballpark: Angel Stadium Attendance: 3,406,790 (2nd out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 95/Pitching - 96 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 88-74 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.89 (9th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.44 (1st)
Offense & Fielding: If the Angels return to the postseason in 2007, it won't be because of their offense. Last year's Halos ranked 11th in the American League in run scoring, thanks to decidedly below-average on-base and slugging percentages; in fact, they were even below average in batting average -- one of the stats that manager Mike Scoscia emphasizes the most. Moreover, according to linear weights, L.A.'s steal-happy attack only created about 8 net runs through their pilfered bases, even though the SB is the cornerstone of their offensive philosophy. But despite these struggles, don't expect a change in mindset from this crew; they love to swing early and often, and run all around the basepaths, Sabermetrics be damned. Which means the offense won't be significantly better this season, even with top prospect Howie Kendrick at second base full-time. Sure, Vlad the Impaler continues to be an unmitigated beast, Chone Figgins could still be a (relatively) nifty player, and newcomer Gary Matthews Jr. might still feel the invigorating effects of steroid use, but... Garret Anderson is totally spent, Juan Rivera will be out until midseason with a broken leg, Orlando Cabrera is primed for a massive decline (witness his 2nd half last year), and the rest of these guys are all but worthless with the lumber (Shea Hillenbrand? That's so 2002). Look for a well-below-average offense... again. Defensively, L.A. was a decent team last year, but they're about to get a lot worse, with Jose Molina no longer starting and Adam Kennedy in St. Louis. Matthews' defense is all flash and no substance, by the way.
The Last Word: How much this offense struggles is dependent on how much Matthews and Cabrera retain their value from last season, and whether Anderson can stay above replacement level until Rivera returns.
Pitching: If the Angels return to the postseason in 2007, it will definitely be because of their pitching. Even with Bartolo Colon sidelined to begin the season (which might not be a bad thing after his performance last year), the Halos boast what is easily the best staff in the AL. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are poised for big seasons, and the Jered Weaver/Ervin Santana duo is perhaps the most talented young pair of pitchers in the game today. The bullpen is equally money, thanks to all-world closer Francisco Rodriguez, as well as solid relievers Scot Shields, Justin Speier, and Hector Carrasco.
The Last Word: As shaky as Anaheim's hitters are, that's how sturdy their pitching projects to be. Look for the best team ERA in the league.
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: While the Angels' lineup isn't going to scare many teams, their pitching staff remains among baseball's elite -- and it will carry them to the crown in a weak AL West division. It remains to be seen if this group can replicate the magic of 2002, however, as they are 3-9 in the playoffs since their World Series championship, and have missed the postseason on two other occasions. But at least they'll get a chance to improve those numbers this fall.
2. Oakland Athletics (Projected: 81-81)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 93-69, Finished 1st in AL Western Division Scored 771 runs, Allowed 727 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 85-77 Managed by Ken Macha (2007 Manager: Bob Geren) Attendance: 1,976,625 (12th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 96/Pitching - 97 (over 100 favors batters) Postseason: Lost AL Championship Series (4-0) to Detroit Tigers Won AL Division Series (3-0) over Minnesota Twins 2007 Projected Record: 81-81 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.87 (10th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.90 (6th)
Offense & Fielding: Even though they got a huge (if unexpected) season out of Frank Thomas last year, the A's still ranked just 9th in the AL in runs. In fact, aside from 2005 (when they were 6th), Oakland hasn't ranked higher than 8th in run scoring since Jason Giambi was winning MVPs for the club in the early 2000s. And now that Thomas has departed for the financially-greener pastures of Toronto, the A's will rely on aging ex-catcher Mike Piazza to fill Thomas' role from a year ago, albeit at a decidedly un-Moneyball price. While Thomas was paid only $500,000 for his monster performance, Piazza will be given $8.5M in 2007 -- a steep fee for an old slugger who's no guarantee to even come close to Thomas' 2006 output. And, worse yet, surrounding Piazza is a collection of decent-but-not-great hitters: Milton Bradley, Jason Kendall, Nick Swisher, Eric Chavez, Mark Kotsay, Mark Ellis, and brittle SS Bobby Crosby. So it'll be the same old tune for Oakland in 2007: rely on pitching and defense, and hope that the offense provides enough punch to take a division in which 90-95 wins is almost always enough to ensure a playoff berth. Given that philosophy, it's a good thing that the A's are solid defensively, with Chavez and Ellis standing out above all the rest.
The Last Word: Not a lot of downside here -- unless Piazza acts his age and/or Crosby decides to get injured again -- but not much upside, either. We've seen the best of Eric Chavez (and probably Nick Swisher, too), and it's, well, good but not great. And they're the best hitters on the team. Look for another below-average year at the plate for Billy Beane's bunch.
Pitching: Assuming that Rich Harden has overcome his elbow problems, the Oakland staff should be an above-average one even after the loss of Barry Zito. Harden is the staff ace, and he certainly has the stuff to be a truly special hurler for many years, but he has never had an injury-free season. New manager Bob Geren insists that Harden is over his injuries, though, and that he's ready to take over for Zito at the front of the rotation. #2 starter Dan Haren is another very talented RHP who looks ready to have a breakout campaign in 2007, while Joe Blanton, Esteban Loaiza, and Brad Halsey are solid-enough starters in a world where Gil Meche pulls down $55 million contracts. One problem area is that there isn't a lot of depth in this rotation, unless youngsters Jason Windsor and Shane Komine show that they're ready for MLB. The bullpen, led by dominating closer Huston Street, is a quality group, though. Justin Duchscherer and Kiko Calero are especially effective in the setup role, and they will be helped by the addition of LOOGY Alan Embree. Chad Gaudin is another option in long relief.
The Last Word: Zito's departure will certainly hurt this group, but they've got the depth necessary to cover the loss with only a minimal loss of productivity. It won't be the pitching staff's fault when they fall out of the playoffs...
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Every other year, it seems the Angels and A's alternate the AL West crown, and this year should be no different. Oakland sustained heavy personnel losses this winter, and simply do not have the resources to hold off Los Angeles again in 2007. The good news for A's fans is that they still have maybe the best GM in the game, and the pitching staff is still a strength. But there just aren't enough pieces here for a return trip to the playoffs.
3. Seattle Mariners (Projected: 78-84)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 78-84, Finished 4th in AL Western Division Scored 756 runs, Allowed 792 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 78-84 Managed by Mike Hargrove Ballpark: Safeco Field Attendance: 2,481,165 (6th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 94/Pitching - 95 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 78-84 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.72 (14th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 4.92 (7th)
Offense & Fielding: For a lineup with so many alleged big names (Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, Raul Ibanez, Jose Vidro, Jose Guillen), the Mariners sure have a crappy offense... Last year, because they utterly refused to walk or show any semblance of patience (their 404 free passes taken easily ranked last in the AL), the M's posted the second-worst on-base percentage in the league, ahead of only Tampa Bay -- which in turn led to 756 runs... ahead of only (you guessed it) Tampa Bay. While Ichiro (.370 OBP) continued to play at an All-Star level, no one else in the lineup posted an OBP higher than .353, and many were below .320. Vidro and Guillen were added this offseason, but neither truly solves Seattle's problems: Vidro is a shell of his former self and will not be able to provide the kind of production expected out of a DH; Guillen is coming off of elbow surgery that ruined his 2006 season, and he was never much of an on-base threat to begin with. In other words, unless Beltre suddenly channels his 2004 season (not likely -- it's not a contract year), this lineup is going to be one of, if not the, worst offenses in the American League. At least Seattle's defense is decent, thanks to Ichiro and Beltre.
The Last Word: Talk a walk! Seriously!
Pitching: After an average pitching performance in 2006, Seattle "lost" Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro from their rotation. Talk about addition by subtraction... As mediocre as they are, newcomers Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez should easily be able to cover the lost starters -- especially when their rotation-mates will include the solid-enough duo of Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver, to go along with überprospect Felix Hernandez (who could finally realize his potential in '07). The bullpen's loss of Rafael Soriano could prove more troubling, but closer J.J. Putz is way better than his name would indicate, and he will be joined by a number of competent arms in a surprisingly quality relief corps. If Hernandez ever becomes the bona fide stud we've been waiting for, this pitching staff won't be all that bad.
The Last Word: Hey, King Felix, anytime you're ready...
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Seattle will rise or fall -- well, fall mostly -- on the "strength" of their offense. Even though this projects to be one of the weakest divisions in baseball, the Mariners simply do not have the consistency or the patience to be a contending team. But, hey, at least Adam Jones (not Pacman, BTW) looks like a good prospect to replace Ichiro when he bolts town after the season...
4. Texas Rangers (Projected: 77-85)
2006 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
2006: 80-82, Finished 3rd in AL Western Division Scored 835 runs, Allowed 784 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 86-76 Managed by Buck Showalter (2007 Manager: Ron Washington) Ballpark: Ameriquest Field Attendance: 2,388,757 (7th out of 14) Park Factor: Batting - 104/Pitching - 103 (over 100 favors batters) 2007 Projected Record: 77-85 Projected Runs Scored/Game: 4.97 (5th) Projected Runs Allowed/Game: 5.24 (11th)
Offense & Fielding: As usual, Texas' problems do not trace back to its offense. Equipped with good hitters like Mark Teixeira, Michael Young, and the bounce-back kids (Brad Wilkerson and Hank Blalock), Texas will once again have no problem scoring runs, despite new manager Ron Washington's promise to "manufacture runs" more often (You ranked 4th in the AL in scoring, Ron. If it ain't broke, why are you trying to fix it?). In fact, even some of the lesser-known names in the lineup are quality: 2B Ian Kinsler will only continue to grow as a hitter, RF Nelson Cruz still has some untapped power, and newcomer Frank Catalanotto continues to be solid as a rock. With such a strong nucleus at the plate, they'll definitely finish in the Top 5 in runs again. Which is good, because aside from Teixeira and Young, the Rangers are not a particularly good defensive team, with Blalock being the biggest liability.
The Last Word: Manufacture this: Other than the Yankees, Texas is the only team to finish in the Top 5 in runs in each of the last six seasons...
Pitching: Now we're getting closer to finding the problem. Texas ranked 8th in Runs Allowed last year, and they've only ranked higher than 7th once since 1996. Ameriquest Field is a big part of the problem, but, then again, so is the organization's ongoing commitment to the employment of unexceptional starters like Chan Ho Park, Ryan Drese, Joaquin Benoit, R.A. Dickey, Colby Lewis, John Koronka, and, most recently, Vicente Padilla, Robinson Tejada, Josh Rupe, Edison Volquez, and Brandon McCarthy. Is it any surprise that mediocre pitchers + an extreme hitter's park = team ERAs worse than the league average? At least ace Kevin Millwood is solid, but even he had Arlington-itis last year (5.38 home ERA). And, other than Akinori Otsuka, who knows what to make of this bullpen? It was a strength last year, but many of those performances look like flukes (or did you really think Rick Bauer was a 3.55 ERA pitcher?), and the respective statuses of new closer Eric Gagne (who hasn't seriously pitched since 2004) and Frank Francisco (who hasn't seriously pitched since 2004) are truly mysteries at this point. A decline is in the cards for this staff, and they weren't really that great to begin with.
The Last Word: There are simply too many question marks and/or second-rate pitchers here for this staff to be anything but substandard.
Projected 2007 Stats:
Outlook: Washington says he wants to make this a pitching-and-defense team. In fairness, we all say crazy things from time to time. While the team is clearly trying to ditch their all-hit, no-pitch image, it will be much easier said than done, especially in this park. The Rangers' success will depend almost entirely on the pitching staff, but there aren't many reasons for optimism in that area, despite a surprisingly average (that's a compliment) performance last year. With Oakland likely to decline, the AL West is certainly ripe for the taking, but there are too many "ifs" involved for Texas to be the team to take advantage.
