2006-07 NBA Capsules: Southwest

by user Davis21wylie

Each team's capsule contains the key info about their chances in the 2006-07 season. The depth charts feature projected Player Efficiency Ratings, John Hollinger's all-in-one method of player evaluation. More info on PER is available here, but suffice to say that anything above 20.00 means you're doing very well, 15.00 is average, and anything under 10.00 means you're clinging to a spot in the league. Projections were created using Basketball-Reference's Similarity Scores. Defensive grades reflect man-to-man ability and awareness in a team context. Any other questions about the statistical methods in the preview are addressed here.

1. San Antonio Spurs (Projected: 54-28)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

63-19, Finished 1st in NBA Southwest Division

Scored 7837 points, Allowed 7278 points
Expected W-L: 61-21
Coached by Gregg Popovich (63-19)

Pace Factor: 88.5 (23rd out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 107.5 (10th out of 30)
Defense - 99.5 (1st out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .570 (1st out of 30)

Playoffs:
Lost West Conf Semis (4-3) to Dallas Mavericks
Won West Conf 1st Rd (4-2) over Sacramento Kings

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Tony Parker		19.0	 B
SG  Manu Ginobili	21.5	 A
SF  Bruce Bowen		10.0	 A
PF  Tim Duncan		23.0	 A
C   Francisco Elson	11.0	 B
-------------------------------------
PG2 Jacque Vaughn	 9.0	 C
SG2 Michael Finley	13.0	 B
SF2 Brent Barry		13.5	 B
PF2 Robert Horry	12.0	 B
C2  Jackie Butler	15.5	 B
BN  Beno Udrih		15.0	 D
BN  Matt Bonner		13.0	 D
BN  Nick Van Exel	12.0	 C
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 106.4 (14th)
Proj. DRtg: 101.5 (1st)

Point Guard: Simply put, Tony Parker took his game to new heights last season. His offensive output improved markedly because he finally began to play to his strengths -- he stopped taking ill-advised threes, and started using his quickness to get to the basket off the dribble more than ever before. Parker's defense has gotten much better than when he first entered the league as well, and he is no longer a liability at that end. He is still not a great distributor and turns the ball over too much, but Parker can now say that he is a bona fide top-10 NBA PG. Jacque Vaughn was signed to provide a steady backup to Parker; Vaughn can run an offense, but that's just about the extent of his skills. Beno Udrih is also on the bench, and this might be a make-or-break season for the third-year guard. Udrih has a nice offensive game, but he's inconsistent and lacks the defensive abilities to mesh with Popovich's system.

Shooting Guard: Bone-headed fouls late in Game 7 aside, Manu Ginobili is one of the most dangerous perimeter players in the game. He can do it all at both ends, pestering opponents into turnovers on defense, while simultaneously devastating them on offense with his daring drives, deadly shooting, and generally outstanding all-around skills. In other words, Ginobili might just be the NBA's most complete player. His minutes have been limited by San Antonio's depth, but Ginobili is usually at the center of the action when it matters most -- the 4th quarter. Michael Finley will back up Ginobili, and his game has fallen on hard times over the past two seasons. While he can still defend, score a little, and provide a legitimate 3-point threat, Finley is not the same guy that was a key cog for so many years in Dallas. Versatile reserve Barry may also fit into the SG situation.

Small Forward: If it seems like Bruce Bowen's been around forever, then that's just another testament to the unparalleled defensive ability that Bowen brings to the Spurs. The book on Bowen never changes: on offense, his only responsibility is to stand in the corners and launch 3-pointers with surprising accuracy (.462 from the left corner last season, .400 from the right), and on defense he's an all-around pest that can guard anybody -- although he seemed a bit slow last season when asked to check small guards. Because of his D, the Spurs are almost always better with Bowen on the floor than without him, but he does turn 35 this season, and when his defense goes, his career will soon follow. Brent Barry is the backup, and he's a useful piece that plays smart and can stretch defenses with his shooting. Journeyman Eric Williams was picked up in a summer trade, but he looked all but finished last year in Toronto.

Power Forward: What if you had a "down" year and were still one of the 10 most valuable players in the league? That's the situation Tim Duncan faced last year, when plantar fasciitis slowed him all season, limiting him to "only" second-team All-NBA honors. Was the lessened production a sign of decline for TD? Not quite. In the playoffs, he was back to his old MVP self, averaging 25.8 points and 10.5 boards per game, meaning that a healthy age-30 Duncan (and he should be healthy this season) is as dominant as he was at 25. "Big Shot" Robert Horry, on the other hand, seems to be in the twilight of his career after another "meh" regular season and a surprisingly invisible playoff performance. Sooner or later, Horry will probably be passed on the depth chart by Matt Bonner, a tremendous shooter who spent last season in Toronto.

Center: Exit Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic, enter Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler. Elson is an athletic defensive specialist who can alter shots in the paint and deny opponents post-up opportunities, but he is a disappointing rebounder and has no offensive game. Butler has more promise, having played pretty well for the Knicks (and in the CBA before that). Butler has no game outside of the paint, but he's a strong post scorer and a solid rebounder, and he has some defensive upside as well. Fabricio Oberto is also in the mix, and he's an okay defender and rebounder who didn't show a lot on offense as a rookie. Whichever one wins the starting job, Elson and Butler should be able to match the output of Nesterovic and Mohammed, and for a much more reasonable price.

Outlook: People seem to forget that the Spurs held a three-point lead with 32 seconds left in Game 7 against Dallas, before Ginobili's foul allowed Dirk Nowitzki to send the game into overtime; and had San Antonio survived, they would have likely held a parade this past June, not Miami. In other words, the Spurs are still loaded, they're probably still the best team in the NBA, and they've got to be considered the favorites to win it all once again, despite their early exit last season. They are getting older, but if Duncan is healthy all season, consider them first among equals in this division -- and the entire league.

2. Dallas Mavericks (Projected: 54-28)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

60-22, Finished 2nd in NBA Southwest Division

Scored 8130 points, Allowed 7632 points
Expected W-L: 58-24
Coached by Avery Johnson (60-22)

Pace Factor: 87.8 (27th out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 112.1 (1st out of 30)
Defense - 104.7 (10th out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .562 (3rd out of 30)

Playoffs:
Lost NBA Finals (4-2) to Miami Heat
Won West Conf Finals (4-2) over Phoenix Suns
Won West Conf Semis (4-3) over San Antonio Spurs
Won West Conf 1st Rd (4-0) over Memphis Grizzlies

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Jason Terry		16.0	 C
SG  Jerry Stackhouse	13.5	 C
SF  Josh Howard		17.5	 B
PF  Dirk Nowitzki	24.5	 D
C   DeSagana Diop	12.0	 B
-------------------------------------
PG2 Devin Harris	16.0	 B
SG2 Greg Buckner	12.0	 C
SF2 Devean George	11.5	 B
PF2 Austin Croshere	13.0	 C
C2  Erick Dampier	13.0	 B
BN  Anthony Johnson	13.0	 C
BN  Maurice Ager	13.0	 D
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 109.7 (2nd)
Proj. DRtg: 104.9 (10th)

Point Guard: Jason Terry is by no means a traditional point guard, but he's definitely the straw (along with Nowitzki and Howard) that stirs Dallas' drink. Terry is an outstanding shooter that can drain jumpers from literally anywhere on the floor, and his ballhandling skills are tremendous as well (despite his usage, he very rarely turns the ball over). He is merely an average defender, and he doesn't distribute the ball all that much, but Dallas re-signed Terry because they know how valuable his scoring and shooting can be. Devin Harris will once again be the backup, as Dallas felt that he was not quite ready to take over as the full-time starter at the point. He will see more minutes in 2006-07, however, especially after his work in the playoffs, and his speed and driving ability bring another dimension to the Mavs' offense. Anthony Johnson came over in the Daniels trade, and he's a steady hand that is coming off the two best seasons of his career.

Shooting Guard: After two seasons as Dallas' sixth man, Jerry Stackhouse will be penciled in as the starter at SG. Stackhouse is a tough and savvy scorer who loves to attack the basket, but his jumper is suspect and the rest of his game is average at best. Terry could also see minutes here, especially if Harris shows enough development to take over at the point; Terry is probably better suited to the 2 anyway. Dallas also signed Greg Buckner in the offseason, and he's a soild (but probably overrated) defensive specialist who can pass and shoot a little as well. Rookie Maurice Ager will be brought along slowly, but he could be a quality scorer someday.

Small Forward: Josh Howard was inked to a big extension earlier this month, but he will likely prove to be well worth it. Howard is a good defender and a jack-of-all-trades on offense -- he can score on drives or jumpers (particularly from downtown), he's a very good ballhandler, and he can rebound, too. If Howard continues to develop, there will be very few weaknesses in his game. Behind Howard is ex-Laker Devean George, a strong defender and decent rebounder who never really developed on offense. Former T-Wolves washout Ndudi Ebi is also on the roster.

Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki became a legit MVP candidate last season, and there's no reason to think that he can't perform at the same level for the next several years. He's probably the scariest offensive weapon in the NBA, because nobody can guard him -- he'll shoot over smaller defenders, or drive right around lumbering 7-footers. Basically, defense is Dirk's only weakness, but it's a small price to pay for one of the very best (and most unique) offensive players in league history. New acquisition Austin Croshere is sort of a poor man's Nowitzki; despite his 6-10 frame he can shoot the lights out and has some nice finesse skills, but he doesn't post up, rebound, or defend all that much. He's also coming off a season that is, at age 31, likely unrepeatable. His contract does offer cap relief after this season, though, something that neither Marquis Daniels nor Keith Van Horn (both departed) could provide.

Center: Remember when the Mavericks couldn't find a halfway-decent center not named "Shawn Bradley"? Well, that's changed... sort of. DeSagana Diop finally tapped into his potential last season, playing good defense and rebounding while not completely embarrassing himself on offense. Diop isn't the greatest center around, but at least he's a bargain at $2 million. Erick Dampier, on the other hand, is anything but a bargain (he'll "earn" $8.6 million in 2006-07), but he's a nice defender and rebounder, and he has a lot more offensive ability than Diop. Those two will likely share the minutes again this season, comprising an above-average center corps. Additionally, project Didier Ilunga-Mbenga has an outside chance at seeing more than the 240 minutes he logged in '06, and he showed some potential last year.

Outlook: Was 2005-06 Dallas' peak? On the one hand, they came within a whisker of winning it all last season, and they added a number of battle-tested veterans over the offseason. On the other hand, they were lucky to get past San Antonio and Phoenix en route to the Finals, and it's not clear whether or not the offseason moves actually improved the roster. Of course, the core is still intact, and as long as Nowitzki is surrounded by as talented a group as this, Dallas will definitely be championship contenders.

3. Memphis Grizzlies (Projected: 49-33)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

49-33, Finished 3rd in NBA Southwest Division

Scored 7558 points, Allowed 7255 points
Expected W-L: 52-30
Coached by Mike Fratello (49-33)

Pace Factor: 86.4 (30th out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 105.6 (18th out of 30)
Defense - 101.9 (2nd out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .529 (6th out of 30)

Playoffs:
Lost West Conf 1st Rd (4-0) to Dallas Mavericks

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Damon Stoudamire	13.5	 C
SG  Eddie Jones		13.5	 B
SF  Mike Miller		16.5	 C
PF  Pau Gasol		23.0	 B
C   Stromile Swift	14.0	 C
-------------------------------------
PG2 Chucky Atkins	13.0	 D
SG2 Dahntay Jones	10.0	 B
SF2 Rudy Gay		14.0	 C
PF2 Hakim Warrick	11.5	 D
C2  Jake Tsakalidis	14.5	 C
BN  Brian Cardinal	12.5	 B
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 106.5 (13th)
Proj. DRtg: 103.5 (2nd)

Point Guard: The Grizzlies' starting PG spot is now the sole province of Damon Stoudamire, but it remains to be seen if this is actually a good thing for Memphis. Stoudamire was injured for most of last season, and he wasn't overly effective when he did play, bringing to the table little more than his rebounding and 3-point shooting acumen. Chucky Atkins manned the Grizzlies job in Stoudamire's stead last season after the latter went down with a season-ending knee injury, but he's no better than the man he replaced. Because of the dearth of talent in front of him, rookie Kyle Lowry has a good chance to see action at the point this season, and he was a steal with the 24th pick -- seeing as how he might have been the third-best PG available in the draft.

Shooting Guard: Aging Eddie Jones will be the starter (for now, at least), but he is increasingly becoming a one-way player -- and that way ain't offense. Dahntay Jones (no relation) sits behind Eddie, but he's another defensive specialist who is even worse offensively than EJ. If push comes to shove (i.e., Eddie Jones continues to decline), Gay could fit into the mix here, although the team would like to keep him at SF.

Small Forward: After spending a year as a top-flight reserve (he won the Sixth Man Award last season), Mike Miller will start again for Memphis. Miller is a terrific shooter and a solid rebounder for a perimeter player, and he should be a welcome addition to this lineup, playoff woes aside (career numbers: 9.0/3.0/1.7 on 40% shooting). Backup Rudy Gay is the team's top draft pick and an outstanding prospect at both ends. If Gay makes a quick transition to the NBA, the team may either move Miller to SG or assign him the 6th man role again. Brian Cardinal is still around as well, and while he's a decent player (assuming last year's awful performance was a fluke), he can't seem to stay healthy for any period of time.

Power Forward: The worst news any NBA team received this offseason was the discovery that Pau Gasol, one of the top players in the entire NBA, would be sidelined until January with a broken foot he sustained while playing for Spain at the World Championships. When he does play, Gasol is a terror that can dominate in a variety of ways, but it is as yet unknown how the injury will ultimately affect his playing style and/or durability. For now, either Swift or Hakim Warrick will start; Warrick is a quality scorer and rebounder who lacks polish in other areas, while Swift is an experienced hand who does his best work at PF. Lawrence Roberts might also see playing time in Gasol's absence, and he showed some potential as a rookie.

Center: Stromile Swift is slated to be the starter here, though he may ultimately shift over to PF, at least until Gasol returns. Swift was viewed as a disappointment in Houston last year, but it may have been a case of his confidence being shattered by a combination of a poor start and the pressure of a new team. Whatever the cause for his off year, Swift should be his old self again with his old team, and that means he'll once again be a fearsome athlete that can score around the basket. Jake Tsakalidis came on late last season and could start again if Swift changes positions. He's a massive guy that can finish inside, but the key to his breakout last season was his much-improved rebounding -- a level which may or may not be retained this year.

Outlook: Memphis could go either way, depending on how well the rest of the team holds down the fort until Gasol comes back. The record I project is for a full season of Gasol (I can't program partial seasons), so expect less wins -- maybe in the 39-45 range, and that's if everything goes right during the pre-January period. If things go poorly, though, it may be in Memphis' best interest to start taking the team in a different direction, as this Grizz squad that has made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons may have peaked last year -- a season that, once again, ended with a first-round exit.

4. Houston Rockets (Projected: 41-41)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

34-48, Finished 5th in Southwest Division

Scored 7387 points, Allowed 7517 points
Expected W-L: 36-46
Coached by Jeff Van Gundy (34-48)

Pace Factor: 88.0 (25th out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 101.6 (29th out of 30)
Defense - 103.3 (8th out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .484 (20th out of 30)

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Rafer Alston	13.5	 D
SG  Bonzi Wells		14.5	 C
SF  Tracy McGrady	21.5	 C
PF  Juwan Howard	12.5	 C
C   Yao Ming		24.0	 B
-------------------------------------
PG2 Luther Head		13.0	 B
SG2 Vassilis Spanoulis	12.5	 C
SF2 Shane Battier	13.5	 A
PF2 Chuck Hayes		16.5	 A
C2  Dikembe Mutombo	12.5	 B
BN  Kirk Snyder		13.5	 C
BN  Scott Padgett	12.5	 D
BN  Ryan Bowen		 7.0	 B
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 104.0 (26th)
Proj. DRtg: 103.9 (7th)

Point Guard: The Rafer Alston-for-Mike James deal... um, didn't really pan out all that well. On top of the Rockets' injury woes last year, Alston had one of the worst seasons of his career at Houston's helm -- while at the same time James had a career-best campaign in Toronto. It's not that Alston can't distribute the ball (just the opposite, he's one of the top passers in the game), but the rest of his game is wildly inconsistent, and he's a downright bad defender. He will need to play more like he did two years ago in Toronto if Houston is to succeed in 06-07. Luther Head will be the backup, and while he was not exactly a world-beater during his rookie season, he did improve steadily as the year went on, and he is already a solid defensive player. John Lucas III lit up the Las Vegas summer league, and he might crack the rotation as well.

Shooting Guard: Bonzi Wells was the big free-agent haul of the offseason for Houston, and he came at a bargain-bin price (just $2 million/year). Wells is maybe the best rebounding guard around, and he can score well in the post (though this may not be that great of an attribute with Yao around), but he's sorely lacking a jumper, so he might not be the best fit here. Still, you can't argue with the price, and he'll be a big improvement over David Wesley. Behind Wells is Greek national-teamer Vassilis Spanoulis, a quality player who can also play PG. Bob Sura and Casey Jacobsen will also compete for a roster spot; the former used to be a solid player but has no durability, while the latter is an overrated shooter who was never really worth a damn.

Small Forward: When healthy, Tracy McGrady is still one of the 10 best players in basketball. No joke. What has been a joke, however, are T-Mac's injury issues, culminating with a chronic back problem that limited him to 47 games a year ago. The bottom line is this: the Rockets seriously need McGrady to be close to 100% to mount another playoff charge. End of story. But just in case that doesn't happen, Shane Battier was acquired in a draft-day trade with Memphis. Battier is a virtuoso on defense who can also contribute meaningfully on offense, but the question will always be whether or not he can match the collective production of Stromile Swift and Rudy Gay, the players Houston gave up to snag Battier. Kirk Snyder is in the mix as well, and he showed some real potential last year while on the Hornets. Ryan Bowen is an energy guy who should never have even come close to getting 661 minutes.

Power Forward: This is a wide-open position battle if there ever was one. Juwan Howard is the incumbent, but his career as an effective player has been over for at least two years. Undersized but equally underrated Chuck Hayes didn't see many minutes last year, but he was downright awesome when he did play, rebounding the hell out of the ball while simultaneously playing out of his mind on defense. Who knows if he can keep it up over an entire season, but what do the Rockets have to lose by finding out, especially when the alternative is Howard? Shooters Steve Novak and Scott Padgett are also around, and they're good for when Yao commands a double-team in the post.

Center: Yao Ming has developed into maybe the best center in basketball over the past several seasons, but that's only good if he can stay on the floor. Yao missed 25 games last year with a broken foot and various toe problems, and he's never played more than 2700 minutes in a season, even when healthy. Obviously Yao seems over the injuries now, but he plays basketball literally all year round, and at 7'5", that's gotta take a toll. But let's assume he's at or near 100% -- that gives Houston one of the most valuable players in the entire NBA, and he's just now entering his prime. Dikembe Mutombo will return for a 16th season, at the age of 40. He's still worth the playing time, though, because he can still rebound and finish off dunks and lay-ups inside, and who knows how many shots are altered by his very presence in the lane on defense.

Outlook: Houston is another team that could go either way. One thing's for sure, though: they'll be better than last year's 34-48 record. But how much better? 50 wins seems remotely possible, and they should pick up a few more than my 41-win projection simply by virtue of Memphis losing Pau Gasol. But are they among the elite again? Are they of championship caliber? Despite the offseason move for Battier, I don't see them as a legit contender even if Yao/McGrady are at full strength again, if not simply because their offense is still lacking.

5. New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets (Projected: 30-52)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

38-44, Finished 4th in Southwest Division

Scored 7611 points, Allowed 7842 points
Expected W-L: 33-49
Coached by Byron Scott (38-44)

Pace Factor: 89.0 (21st out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 103.4 (26th out of 30)
Defense - 107.1 (20th out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .496 (16th out of 30)

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Chris Paul		19.5	 C
SG  Desmond Mason	13.5	 C
SF  Peja Stojakovic	18.0	 D
PF  David West		17.5	 D
C   Tyson Chandler	13.5	 A
-------------------------------------
PG2 Bobby Jackson	13.5	 B
SG2 Rasual Butler	11.0	 C
SF2 Linton Johnson	10.0	 D
PF2 Cedric Simmons	11.5	 B
C2  Hilton Armstrong	10.5	 B
BN  Jannero Pargo	10.5	 B
BN  Brandon Bass	10.0	 C
BN  Marc Jackson	12.5	 D
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 102.3 (30th)
Proj. DRtg: 106.2 (17th)

Point Guard: Chris Paul was maybe the greatest rookie PG ever last season, which is damned high praise when you think of the performances that Magic Johnson, Steve Francis, Allen Iverson, and others had in their debut seasons. He is very good in virtually every phase of the game, whether it be passing, shooting, ballhandling, or even rebounding, and he should be a solid defender, too, with a bit more experience. That said, don't be surprised if he suffers the dreaded "sophomore slump" this year. Not his fault, but his rookie season was so unbelievable that some regression is to be expected. Bobby Jackson was picked up over the summer, and he'll be in a familiar role, that of a shoot-first sixth man. Word to the wise, though: Jackson slipped last year, and he'll be 33 this season, meaning that his days as an awesome weapon off the bench may be over. Still, he's a quality offensive player that can still defend well. Retread Jannero Pargo may also stick around as the third PG.

Shooting Guard: Desmond Mason had the season from hell last year, but he'll probably progress toward the mean in 2006-07. When at his best, Mason is a high-flier who excels in the open court and can also defend, but his shot was so errant last year that he simply couldn't drive past people like he could in the past. Maybe his stroke will return to him this year. Maybe. Athletic Rasual Butler is the backup, and his 2-point shooting has been his downfall in recent years. If one of those two can get their stuff together, the Hornets could have something at SG, but the odds of that are the same as the odds that a team would get outscored by almost 250 points but still almost make the playoffs... oh, wait.

Small Forward: Former All-Star Peja Stojakovic joins the team, but is he really that much more than a glorified 3-point specialist at this point? Okay, so that was a little harsh; Peja can score a little from inside the arc, but he is a pretty one-dimensional player. At least he fills New Orleans' need for a shooter, but you'd think they could have found an option for cheaper than $11 million... Linton Johnson will be the backup, lest Butler shift over from the 2. Johnson is a fine rebounder, but doesn't do a whole lot else. Scooter McFadgon has an awesome name.

Power Forward: David West is legit. The 3rd-year player became New Orleans' top scoring option last year, notching exactly 20.0 points/40 minutes, and he was remarkably consistent in his production throughout the season. West finally seems to be over the injuries that plagued him in 2004-05, and he's in a contract year, so don't expect any letting up. Either Cedric Simmons or Brandon Bass will back West up, but both are raw. Bass didn't show much as a rookie last year, but Simmons has some potential -- if he could only learn to rebound.

Center: Tyson Chandler comes over from Chicago, and with him you just know you'll be getting a stellar rebounder and defensive player. What you'll get on offense, though, is anybody's guess. Last year, Chandler undid all of the offensive strides he had made over the previous three years, first reverting into a veritable turnover machine, and then compounding that problem by never looking for his shot. You have to think that he'll bounce back, but, then again... If he doesn't, rookie Hilton Armstrong will see more minutes; he's basically Tyson Chandler, Jr. -- a defensive presence with no offensive skills whatsoever.

Outlook: Why do I rank the Hornets fifth? Because they played way over their heads last season, with their best player being a rookie point guard who may experience a sophomore slump in 06-07. They may have added Peja and some young talent over the offseason, but this was morally a 33-win team last year, and I don't see them being much better than that this year.