2006-07 NBA Capsules: Southeast

by user Davis21wylie

Each team's capsule contains the key info about their chances in the 2006-07 season. The depth charts feature projected Player Efficiency Ratings, John Hollinger's all-in-one method of player evaluation. More info on PER is available here, but suffice to say that anything above 20.00 means you're doing very well, 15.00 is average, and anything under 10.00 means you're clinging to a spot in the league. Projections were created using Basketball-Reference's Similarity Scores. Defensive grades reflect man-to-man ability and awareness in a team context. Any other questions about the statistical methods in the preview are addressed here.

1. Miami Heat (Projected: 52-30)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

52-30, Finished 1st in NBA Southeast Division
**NBA Champions**

Scored 8191 points, Allowed 7874 points
Expected W-L: 52-30
Coached by Stan Van Gundy (11-10), and Pat Riley (41-20)

Pace Factor: 91.6 (12th out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 108.9 (7th out of 30)
Defense - 104.2 (9th out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .530 (5th out of 30)

Playoffs:
Won NBA Finals (4-2) over Dallas Mavericks
Won East Conf Finals (4-2) over Detroit Pistons
Won East Conf Semis (4-1) over New Jersey Nets
Won East Conf 1st Rd (4-2) over Chicago Bulls

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Jason Williams	14.5	 C
SG  Dwyane Wade		25.5	 B
SF  James Posey		10.5	 B
PF  Udonis Haslem	14.0	 B
C   Shaquille O'Neal	22.5	 C
-------------------------------------
PG2 Gary Payton		12.0	 C
SG2 Jason Kapono	10.5	 D
SF2 Antoine Walker	15.0	 C
PF2 Wayne Simien	12.0	 D
C2  Alonzo Mourning	15.5	 A
BN  Antonio Burks	 9.0	 B
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 108.7 (3rd)
Proj. DRtg: 104.7 (8th)

Point Guard: Quietly, Jason Williams has matured into one of the NBA's best offensive point guards over the past several seasons. Williams has severely curtailed the turnovers that so plagued him early in his career, and remains a very good passer who loves to create easy looks for teammates. His shooting has also steadily improved, to the point that he was one of the top shooting PG's in the league last year. His defense is still a mess, but that was to be expected. What was not expected was the torn patella tendon that Williams suffered at the end of the regular season; he had surgery to repair it on July 31, but is still in rehab and may be out until December. While Williams is gone, old standby Gary Payton will start. Payton had (by far) the worst season of his illustrious career in 2006, but he can still offer some vestiges of the defense, leadership, and playmaking that made him one of the greatest PG's ever in his prime. Antonio Burks may also see minutes with Williams out; he's cat-quick, but small and unpolished.

Shooting Guard: There's really nothing to say about Dwyane Wade that hasn't already been said a million times. You could make a case (especially in light of his Finals performance) that he's the NBA's best player, he's only 25, and the only weakness in his game during the regular season -- 3-point shooting (17.1%) -- was deadly during the playoffs (37.8%). If Miami is a top seed again (and, really, why wouldn't they be?), and Cleveland doesn't set the world on fire, you can mark it down: Wade will be the MVP. Behind Wade is Jason Kapono, a tremendous outside shooter who hurts the team with every other aspect of his game.

Small Forward: Together, James Posey and Antoine Walker make up an above-average contingent at the 3. Admittedly, Walker is easily the better player of the two, but once again he'll be coming off of the bench to provide scoring as Miami's sixth man. Even in something of an off year, Walker gave the Heat a lot of versatility, providing scoring, 3-point shooting, and a little playmaking. He is an underrated defender as well, and hopefully his rebounding will, well, rebound from last year's dismal effort. Posey is a terrific rebounder, a quality (if overrated) defender, and a deadly 3-point bomber; he'll be asked to play that role again alongside the other Heat starters. Dorell Wright may also be in the picture after playing well in the D-League and the Orlando summer league.

Power Forward: Udonis Haslem is penciled in as the starter at the 4. Haslem is athletic, and he has decent skills in a number of areas -- defense, rebounding, hitting 15-foot jumpers, finishing inside, and even passing out of the post. He's not a scorer, but the Heat aren't asking that of him. Haslem is simply a rock-solid player, the kind that wins games -- and, last season, championships. Second-year man Wayne Simien will be the backup. Simien can grab offensive rebounds and score a little, but he's also a turnover machine at this stage.

Center: So Shaquille O'Neal deferred to Dwyane Wade in the playoffs. So he let the kid have the glory, for the good of the team. So he's not even the biggest star on the team anymore. So what? Shaq is still the best big man in the East, and -- when healthy and motivated -- he also remains the only player in the game that no defender can stop on a consistent basis. His role in the offense has been reduced in recent years for age/health reasons, but don't kid yourself when it comes to Shaq: the Diesel will be at cruising speed again this season. Backup Alonzo Mourning was another inspirational story last season; just two years after coming back from kidney disease, Mourning once again ranked among the very best centers in basketball. He can still rebound, finish his chances inside, swat an insane number of shots, and, most importantly, provide unmatched intensity. Journeyman Michael Doleac will once again be the 3rd-stringer, and could see more minutes, given the frailty of the two stars in front of him. Pending health, though, this is easily the best group of centers in the NBA.

Outlook: Can the Heat repeat? One could argue that they caught lightning in a bottle last season, since their aging stars stayed healthy and productive throughout the playoffs. On the other hand, we have not yet seen the best of Dwyane Wade, which is a proposition sure to give opposing head coaches nightmares for years. It is exceptionally hard to repeat, though, and I'm not sure the Heat are deep enough to handle another long journey into the playoffs.

2. Washington Wizards (Projected: 43-39)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

42-40, Finished 2nd in NBA Southeast Division

Scored 8336 points, Allowed 8184 points
Expected W-L: 46-36
Coached by Eddie Jordan (42-40)

Pace Factor: 92.3 (7th out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 109.2 (6th out of 30)
Defense - 107.5 (23rd out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .497 (14th out of 30)

Playoffs:
Lost East Conf 1st Rd (4-2) to Cleveland Cavaliers

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Gilbert Arenas	21.0	 D
SG  DeShawn Stevenson	12.0	 C
SF  Caron Butler	17.5	 C
PF  Antawn Jamison	17.0	 C
C   Brendan Haywood	15.0	 B
-------------------------------------
PG2 Donell Taylor	10.5	 C
SG2 Antonio Daniels	15.0	 C
SF2 Jarvis Hayes	12.0	 C
PF2 Darius Songaila	13.5	 C
C2  Etan Thomas		13.5	 C
BN  Michael Ruffin	 8.5	 C
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 107.6 (6th)
Proj. DRtg: 106.8 (21st)

Point Guard: Just when you thought you'd seen all that Gilbert Arenas had to offer (with Larry Hughes departing, he seemed sure to decline from his 04-05 form), he went and had an even better season in 2005-06. Arenas scored an unbelievable 29.3 points per game last year, all while maintaining an outstanding 58.1 TS% and a decent turnover ratio despite the high usage. The net result, of course, is one of the best offensive players in the entire NBA, and we're certainly not foolish enough to expect a decline from him this season. One area in which Arenas could stand to improve, however, is his defense, as his travails at that end were a big reason Washington was so bad defensively. Donell Taylor will be Arenas' backup; like most youngsters, he needs to improve his shooting and cut down on turnovers. Daniels will likely see time at the point as well.

Shooting Guard: Last year, the Wizards had issues at shooting guard. And this year? Sadly, not much has changed. Over the offseason, GM Ernie Grunfeld signed DeShawn Stevenson to fill the position, but Stevenson is an overrated defender and an all-around ne'er-do-well on offense. Jarvis Hayes is his primary competition, but Hayes is not an appreciably better player, except in the fact that he can shoot threes and score a little bit more than Stevenson. Hayes also has injury problems, having missed 89 games over the past two seasons. Antonio Daniels was lights-out two years ago, but struggled last year, particularly early in the season. He's still the Wizards' best option at SG because he can actually shoot and play with efficiency, but instead they'll swing him between the backup roles here and at point guard.

Small Forward: Caron Butler exceeded all expectations last year, and there's no reason to think that he can't perform at a high level again. Butler is first and foremost a dynamite scorer, but he's decent in other phases of the game as well. His defensive abilities may be overstated, though. Hayes can play here as well, thus relieving the logjam at SG. Young Andray Blatche could also earn time here and at PF; Blatche has a lot of potential, but must get stronger and show more willingness to venture into the paint.

Power Forward: Undersized Antawn Jamison is capable of fantastic scoring efforts both close to the basket and outside the paint, and he rarely commits a turnover, making him a highly efficient player. He has also been the model of consistent offensive production throughout his career, but his defense is not great, and he was merely an average rebounding power forward last season -- in one of his best rebounding years. So while Jamison is a good player, as long as they play him at the 4 the Wizards are going to struggle in rebounding and interior defense. Free-agent acquisition Darius Songaila will battle Michael Ruffin for the backup job. Songaila is a hustling type who can shoot off of pick-and-pops and score a little, while Ruffin is a rebounding specialist who never takes a shot. Neither gives Washington the tough, prototype PF they need, however.

Center: Brendan Haywood needs to play more like he did in 2004-05 if Washington is to contend in the East. Haywood has always been a good defender, but he was not an effective offensive player last year because he did not capitalize as often on his chances inside -- whether by committing turnovers or missing a number of the jump-hooks that went in during his banner 2005 season. Behind Haywood is Etan Thomas, a high-energy guy who can rebound, defend, and finish adequately despite being undersized. Journeyman Calvin Booth is still hanging around on an NBA roster by virtue of his size and shot-blocking ability.

Outlook: Washington is a decent team... but they may have reached their ceiling over the past two seasons. The team needs defense badly (especially inside), they're undersized, and they don't grab defensive rebounds. Jamison is not to blame for these problems per se, but the way they use him is; putting Arenas, Daniels, Butler, Jamison, and Haywood on the floor together will invariably give you offense, but it is also essentially a group of four perimeter players and one 7-footer (who has been labelled "soft" at times during his career). They can (and likely will) make the playoffs, but until they change the makeup of the team itself, they can't truly expect more than a handful of playoff games before elimination.

3. Orlando Magic (Projected: 39-43)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

36-46, Finished 3rd in NBA Southeast Division

Scored 7784 points, Allowed 7872 points
Expected W-L: 38-44
Coached by Brian Hill (36-46)

Pace Factor: 88.4 (24th out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 106.3 (14th out of 30)
Defense - 107.5 (22nd out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .479 (23rd out of 30)

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Jameer Nelson	18.0	 D
SG  J.J. Redick		12.0	 F
SF  Hedo Turkoglu	14.5	 C
PF  Dwight Howard	20.5	 C
C   Darko Milicic	15.0	 B
-------------------------------------
PG2 Carlos Arroyo	13.5	 C
SG2 Keith Bogans	12.5	 C
SF2 Trevor Ariza	13.0	 A
PF2 Pat Garrity		10.0	 D
C2  Tony Battie		12.5	 C
BN  Grant Hill		18.0	 C
BN  Keyon Dooling	13.0	 B
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 106.1 (15th)
Proj. DRtg: 106.8 (22nd)

Point Guard: In Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo, Orlando features two very solid point guards, albeit with two differing styles. Nelson is a sharp-shooting, scoring point who really came on late in the season after being handed the starting PG job. He's a solid rebounder as well, but must improve his passing and cut down on his turnovers. Arroyo is a more traditional point guard, emphasizing passing over scoring, but he needs to bolster his shooting stroke to the point that it keeps defenses honest. Neither is very good defensively. Travis Diener will be the third PG, and he's a very good (but one-dimensional) shooter.

Shooting Guard: Love him or hate him, J.J. Redick will get a chance to show if he can compete at the NBA level right out of the gate. Redick is a tremendous shooter, of course, but the rest of his game is suspect. His true height (based on wingspan and athleticism in addition to stature) is only 6'3" -- short for a SG -- making his defense a big concern. Plus, it remains to be seen if Redick can become an NBA-quality scorer rather than a mere shooting specialist, and his offseason back injury isn't helping matters. Behind Redick are Keith Bogans and Keyon Dooling, a couple of journeymen. Bogans has shown flashes of an all-around game, but he desperately needs a jump shot. Dooling is another player who can't shoot, and that fact alone means he'll never justify his 10th-overall selection in the 2000 draft.

Small Forward: To his credit, Hedo Turkoglu has made himself into a pretty good player since arriving in Orlando two years ago. While it's true that he'll never attack the basket as much as he should, he can flat-out shoot, and he'll surprise with other aspects of his well-rounded game. Speaking of which, if he could ever stay healthy, Grant Hill might possess the ultimate well-rounded game. Hill still has a lot of the skills that once made him great in Detroit, and he can score on anyone. But should the seemingly-inevitable Hill injury occur, Trevor Ariza will man the backup role. After coming over from the Knicks last season, Ariza played quite well for Orlando; he's a versatile, athletic forward who does his best work on defense.

Power Forward: If the fact that Dwight Howard is only 20 years old doesn't scare you, you're obviously too young to be reading this preview in the first place. Let's start with the basics: Howard is a burgeoning low-post scorer and a truly dominant rebounder, having posted the 4th-best rebound rate in the entire league last year. He finishes extremely well around the hoop, and is an intimidating dunker when he gets the ball down low. His freakish athleticism should give him continued improvement on defense (especially shot-blocking), and he got better on offense as the year went along. Memo to Eastern Conference big men: Be afraid... be very afraid. Also at PF are Pat Garrity, an otherwise-worthless shooting specialist, and Bo Outlaw, an energy/locker-room guy who's nearing the end of an underrated career.

Center: Howard may end up lining up at center, but for now I'll list he and Darko Milicic at the positions they played last year. Milicic almost wasted away on Detroit's bench, but upon being liberated by Orlando, he immediately started to cash in on the potential everybody saw in him three years ago. Milicic showed good hands and finishing ability on drives, plus some surprisingly good ballhandling and passing skills, and ultimately re-affirmed himself as a prospect. His shot-blocking and defensive potential may actually be his best assets, though, and a full season of the improving Milicic will certainly be welcomed by this defense-challenged Orlando squad. Stalwart backup Tony Battie is also well-regarded on defense, though he slipped quite a bit last season. Battie can rebound as well, but adds nothing on offense.

Outlook: The expectations have been raised for this young Orlando team, but there are still questions, namely on defense. Specifically, Orlando needs to force more turnovers and foul less; the latter will take care of itself as Howard and Milicic mature defensively, but the former will be harder to pull off, especially if Redick is starting. If Howard gets dominant, Hill stays healthy, and the kids develop, Orlando could make a run at the playoffs, but they are more likely a year away from serious postseason talk. When this team does eventually gel for a playoff run, however, they will be dangerous. Have patience, Magic fans.

4. Charlotte Bobcats (Projected: 37-45)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

26-56, Finished 4th in Southeast Division

Scored 7943 points, Allowed 8271 points
Expected W-L: 30-52
Coached by Bernie Bickerstaff (26-56)

Pace Factor: 93.4 (3rd out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 102.4 (27th out of 30)
Defense - 106.9 (18th out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .452 (27th out of 30)

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Raymond Felton	16.0	 C
SG  Adam Morrison	16.5	 F
SF  Gerald Wallace	18.5	 C
PF  Emeka Okafor	16.0	 A
C   Primoz Brezec	15.0	 F
-------------------------------------
PG2 Brevin Knight	17.5	 D
SG2 Matt Carroll	14.5	 C
SF2 Bernard Robinson	12.5	 C
PF2 Sean May		16.0	 D
C2  Jake Voskhul	10.5	 C
BN  Othella Harrington	12.0	 B
BN  Walter Herrmann	12.0	 D
BN  Alan Anderson	11.0	 B
BN  Melvin Ely		14.0	 B
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 105.0 (24th)
Proj. DRtg: 106.5 (20th)

Point Guard: Although his performance paled in comparison to fellow rookie PG Chris Paul's, Raymond Felton's first year should be considered a general success. Felton's shooting was as shaky as advertised, but he did show that he can distribute the ball, run an offense, and score enough to be a legitimate starting PG. Moreover, Felton surged late in the season, so it's not unreasonable to expect a big leap in performance for his second year. Underrated Brevin Knight will share time with Felton. Knight followed his career-year 2004-05 with another solid campaign in '06, maintaining his status as one of the best passers and ballhandlers in the league. Knight has defensive issues and can't shoot, but his role doesn't require him to do a lot of either.

Shooting Guard: Adam Morrison will finally make his pro debut this fall, and while he won't be the Larry Bird clone that many expect, he won't be a flop by any means. If you can remember Glenn Robinson, the Big Dog's career should give us a pretty good idea of how Morrison will fare. He's big, he can shoot, he can play either the 2 or the 3, and he can score in bunches. He will struggle defensively, though, especially early on. Backing up Morrison are Alan Anderson and Matt Carroll, a pair of underrated guards. Carroll is a fine shooter and scorer, while Anderson's chief value comes on defense.

Small Forward: After years of either bench-warming or merely tantalizing with his talent, Gerald Wallace exploded last season, turning into one of the most improved players in the NBA. Wallace still lacks a jump shot, but it just doesn't seem to matter -- his athleticism and length allow him to get to the basket any time he wants to. Wallace is also a good rebounder and a decent defender, making him one of the game's best (and most underappreciated) all-around performers. Behind Wallace are former Spanish-league star Walter Herrmann and Bernard Robinson. Herrmann is athletic and sports a diverse (if raw) game; Robinson is a decent rebounder and defender.

Power Forward: A healthy Emeka Okafor would be a big addition to Charlotte's frontcourt. When 100%, Okafor is an outstanding rebounder and defender who can block shots and score in the paint, but he is coming off an ankle injury that forced him to miss 56 games last season. If Okafor is still slowed by the injury, Sean May can -- and must -- pick up the slack. As a rookie May was also hindered by an injury (to his knee), but he was fairly effective when he did play. If both of these guys can come back, Charlotte will be much-improved over last season. But in case they can't, Othella Harrington was signed this offseason. Harrington is a solid inside player on offense, and a decent defender despite a lack of size.

Center: Primoz Brezec was an expansion draftee of surprising merit two seasons ago, and he continued to play well last year... on offense, at least. Despite being 7'1", Brezec likes to shoot jumpers -- and he makes enough to be an asset. He's also a solid scorer, and he never commits a turnover, but he doesn't rebound or defend at all. Backup Jake Voskuhl is the quintessential end-of-the-bench center, a guy whose best "skill" is his size.

Outlook: Charlotte is not yet ready for prime time, but they do have a decent collection of young talent (when healthy). Morrison will help this offense, especially several years down the road, and a healthy Okafor will provide defensive support. Right now, it's not enough to even think about the playoffs, but in a few years the Bobcats could be a solid team.

5. Atlanta Hawks (Projected: 36-46)

2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:

26-56, Finished 4th in Southeast Division

Scored 7972 points, Allowed 8362 points
Expected W-L: 28-54
Coached by Mike Woodson (26-56)

Pace Factor: 90.5 (17th out of 30)
League Pace Factor - 90.6

Rating: Offense - 106.7 (11th out of 30)
Defense - 111.3 (27th out of 30)
League Rating - 106.2

RPI: .451 (28th out of 30)

    The Rotation    Proj PER 	Def
-------------------------------------
PG  Speedy Claxton	16.0	 B
SG  Joe Johnson		17.0	 B
SF  Josh Childress	15.0	 D
PF  Marvin Williams	15.0	 D
C   Zaza Pachulia	16.0	 D
-------------------------------------
PG2 Tyronn Lue		13.5	 D
SG2 Salim Stoudamire	13.0	 D
SF2 Josh Smith		17.5	 C
PF2 Lorenzen Wright	12.5	 B
C2  Shelden Williams	14.0	 B
BN  Royal Ivey		 9.0	 C
-------------------------------------
Proj. ORtg: 107.0 (10th)
Proj. DRtg: 108.7 (26th)

Point Guard: Speedy Claxton finally gives the Hawks a legitimate starting point guard. Sort of. Claxton is a good passer and scorer, and he can push the ball, something that the pace-deficient Hawks wanted to do a year ago but couldn't. Claxton is also a solid defender who is adept at stealing the ball. He has injury issues, though -- he has played 70+ games only once in his 5 NBA seasons. He also fails to alleviate the Hawks' shooting and turnover issues. Behind Claxton is Tyronn Lue, last year's starter. Lue has played surprisingly well ever since landing in Atlanta via a midseason trade two years ago. He is a good shooter, but doesn't do enough playmaking or defending to be a long-term answer at PG. Royal Ivey will be the third-stringer, and even after re-making himself into a jump-shooter last season, he's fairly worthless.

Shooting Guard: Well, despite the protestations of some people, it turns out that the Joe Johnson signing was fairly astute. Johnson was a workhorse, playing more minutes in 2006 than anyone not named "LeBron James", and he used that court time to do almost everything for the fledgling Hawks: scoring, passing, shooting, defense, etc. With Al Harrington gone, Johnson should be the Hawks' MVP again in 2007. Salim Stoudamire will be the backup, and he had a solid rookie season, scoring often and shooting well (despite struggling with the adjustment to the NBA's longer 3-point line).

Small Forward: One of the Hawks' two dynamic young Joshes, either Josh Childress or Josh Smith, will get the starting nod here. Childress was one of the highest-percentage shooters in the league last year, and is a solid passer and rebounder as well. Smith is one of the most exciting players in the NBA, a former slam-dunk contest winner who can sky over just about any defender. Smith needs to work on his shooting, but he's also a good rebounder and a devastating shot-blocker. Marvin Williams could see minutes here as well, should he not be ready to play PF.

Power Forward: Marvin Williams struggled with consistency all throughout his rookie season, but he was making strides by the end of the year, and he played extremely well in the Rocky Mountain Revue this summer. Williams is already a solid rebounder, and could become a dominant scorer in the near future, but needs to improve his shooting, first and foremost. Should Williams have to move back to the 3, Lorenzen Wright can play power forward. Wright has had an up-and-down career, but he rebounds well and plays tough defense. Physical Esteban Batista could also fit in somewhere after rebounding well at the 2006 South American Championships for his native Uruguay.

Center: There are worse options that a team could have at center than Zaza Pachulia. Just 22, Pachulia has developed steadily in three NBA seasons, and can do a little bit of everything for Atlanta -- rebounding (particularly at the offensive end), scoring, and even passing. Pachulia is not a good defensive player, though, and could stand to block more shots. Shot-blocking won't be a problem for top draftee Shelden Williams; nicknamed "The Landlord," Williams is a physical inside presence with a long wingspan, and he should be able to contribute immediately. Shelden Williams and Wright could eventually swap at the 4 and the 5.

Outlook: The Hawks are actually moving in the right direction. The defense will be bolstered by the additions of Wright and Shelden Williams, and the offense is not in that bad a shape. But each of the bottom three teams in this division have improved similarly, and none were starting from the depths that the Hawks found themselves in two seasons ago. Will the Hawks be better in 2006-07? Absolutely. But will they contend for a playoff spot? Probably not.