2006-07 NBA Capsules: Central
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by user Davis21wylie
| 2006-07 NBA Capsules | |
| Atlantic | |
| Central | |
| Southeast | |
| Southwest | |
| Northwest | |
| Pacific | |
| The Playoffs | |
| 101 Reasons... | |
| Rookies Most Likely To... | |
Each team's capsule contains the key info about their chances in the 2006-07 season. The depth charts feature projected Player Efficiency Ratings, John Hollinger's all-in-one method of player evaluation. More info on PER is available here, but suffice to say that anything above 20.00 means you're doing very well, 15.00 is average, and anything under 10.00 means you're clinging to a spot in the league. Projections were created using Basketball-Reference's Similarity Scores. Defensive grades reflect man-to-man ability and awareness in a team context. Any other questions about the statistical methods in the preview are addressed here.
1. Detroit Pistons (Projected: 51-31)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
64-18, Finished 1st in NBA Central Division Scored 7941 points, Allowed 7394 points Expected W-L: 60-22 Coached by Flip Saunders (64-18) Pace Factor: 86.8 (29th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 110.9 (4th out of 30) Defense - 103.1 (5th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .565 (2nd out of 30) Playoffs: Lost East Conf Finals (4-2) to Miami Heat Won East Conf Semis (4-3) over Cleveland Cavaliers Won East Conf 1st Rd (4-1) over Milwaukee Bucks
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Chauncey Billups 18.0 A
SG Rip Hamilton 17.5 B
SF Tayshaun Prince 16.0 A
PF Rasheed Wallace 16.5 A
C Nazr Mohammed 15.0 D
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PG2 Lindsey Hunter 10.0 A
SG2 Flip Murray 12.0 D
SF2 Carlos Delfino 11.0 D
PF2 Jason Maxiell 10.0 C
C2 Antonio McDyess 14.0 D
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Proj. ORtg: 107.3 (7th)
Proj. DRtg: 103.7 (3rd)Point Guard: Chauncey Billups is coming off of an all-world season in which he established himself as perhaps the best two-way guard in the game. He's a terrific defender who can orchestrate the offense, distribute the ball, and shoot the lights out, all while keeping turnovers to a minimum. Billups was an All-NBA second-team selection last year, and should be Detroit's MVP this year as well. Lindsey Hunter will once again serve as Billups' understudy; the hard-nosed backup is a very good defensive player who can run the offense and pass, but he contributes little else on offense because his shooting has gone to hell in recent years. With the last pick of the draft, Detroit added Iowa State's Will Blalock, and he'll fill the 3rd PG role.
Shooting Guard: Richard Hamilton had one of his better years in 2006, scoring a career-high 20.1 ppg on a reasonably good 55.3 TS%. Defensively, Hamilton has made major strides as well, holding opposing players to below-average performances at the 2 and the 3 last season. Ronald "Flip" Murray joins the team as the backup SG. Murray is an explosive scorer, but plays with an appalling lack of efficiency. Also, he is not a good defender (no matter how much Joe Dumars wants to believe otherwise), which makes him a questionable fit on a Detroit team known for its toughness at that end.
Small Forward: Tayshaun Prince should be hailed someday as the new prototype for wing players everywhere. Blessed with an unbelievable wingspan, Prince is a defensive dynamo that constantly harrasses opposing SF's into turnovers and bad shots. On offense, he could stand to be more consistent, but Prince is talented and perfectly capable of repeating his pretty-good 2004-05 performance at that end. If he does, Prince could easily be one of the league's overall most valuable players. Ronald Dupree and Argentine Carlos Delfino will battle for the right to back up Prince. Delfino has performed poorly at both ends over his career thus far, and needs to show a lot more if he wants to be the primary backup. Dupree is back after spending a year in Minnesota, but he's just a mediocre offensive player who's okay on defense -- which, however, may be enough to grab the backup role from Delfino.
Power Forward: Rasheed Wallace has settled into his role nicely in Detroit. Not being asked to be the No. 1 option has allowed Wallace to dabble in a little bit of everything at both ends of the floor -- whether it be long-range shooting (he hit a career-high 155 treys in '06), shot-blocking (he averages around 2 blocks per 40 minutes), scoring (17.4 Pts/40), or rebounding (he'll provide 7-8 boards per game). He'll have to keep up (or even improve upon) that versatile production this season, however, in the absence of the departed Ben Wallace. Untested big men Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson will each see action behind Wallace. Maxiell has some scoring touch, but doesn't rebound; Johnson is big and quick but extremely raw.
Center: Nazr Mohammed will try to replace Ben Wallace at center. While not nearly as valuable as Wallace was, Mohammed is an underrated (if maddeningly inconsistent) offensive player who can score some, rebounds well, avoids turnovers, and makes the most of his chances around the hoop. On defense, he's, um, a work in progress. Detroit will feel the repercussions of Wallace's departure hardest in this area, because Mohammed was not even a marginal defender in San Antonio -- under another great defensive scheme. Therefore, it will be of particular interest to see how Mohammed integrates himself into Detroit's D this season. Antonio McDyess returns as Detroit's Sixth Man extraordinaire. McDyess doesn't have much left in the tank on defense, but he can score, rebound, and generally play with efficiency on offense. Dale Davis is an insurance policy that can still rebound.
Outlook: Losing Ben Wallace hurts, as did the team's underachieving playoff performance a year ago. But these are still the Detroit Pistons, a group of battle-tested veterans that have won before and expect to win again. Rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated, and I expect them to take the Central again, albeit with more resistance from the rest of the division.
2. Chicago Bulls (Projected: 50-32)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
Scored 8020 points, Allowed 7968 points Expected W-L: 43-39 Coached by Scott Skiles (41-41) Pace Factor: 92.9 (5th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 104.2 (22nd out of 30) Defense - 103.2 (6th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .497 (15th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost East Conf 1st Rd (4-2) to Miami Heat
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Kirk Hinrich 17.5 B
SG Ben Gordon 16.5 C
SF Andres Nocioni 15.5 D
PF P.J. Brown 13.0 C
C Ben Wallace 15.0 A
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PG2 Chris Duhon 13.0 B
SG2 Adrian Griffin 11.0 A
SF2 Luol Deng 18.0 B
PF2 Tyrus Thomas 14.0 C
C2 Mike Sweetney 15.0 C
BN Viktor Khryapa 13.5 D
BN Malik Allen 12.5 B
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Proj. ORtg: 107.0 (9th)
Proj. DRtg: 103.8 (6th)Point Guard: "Captain" Kirk Hinrich has already endeared himself to Chi-Town fans with his blue-collar, hustling style, but he's more than just an energy guy. Hinrich is a good scorer with an improving shooting stroke, and he's one of the top defensive PG's in the league. If his projection is any indicator, he should take a big step forward on offense this season. Backup Chris Duhon is another outstanding defender, and he might even be a better distributor than Hinrich. His offense improved markedly last year, and he could become starter-quality if he continues to get better at that end.
Shooting Guard: There were rumors over the summer that Ben Gordon was on his way out of Chicago, but he will return to the Bulls for a third season. Gordon is a dynamic scorer, and maybe the best 3-point shooter in the game. He is one-dimensional, however, and needs to diversify his game (83% of his shots were jumpers). The good news is that after a slow start, Gordon was playing better and attacking the basket more than ever by the end of the season. Cagey vet Adrian Griffin and rookie Thabo Sefolosha will vie for the backup spot. Griffin is an outstanding defender who doesn't add much offense; Sefolosha is a versatile prospect with an equally unpolished offensive game.
Small Forward: Andres Nocioni could start here, or return to the 4, where he spent more time last season. Nocioni blossomed offensively last year, shooting the lights out, scoring much more than he did as a rookie, and improving his rebounding as well. But while Nocioni is a competitor who hustles on defense, he simply isn't very good at playing D without fouling. If Nocioni displaces Brown at the 4, Luol Deng will start at SF. In fact, you could make a case that Deng is already the Bulls' best all-around player -- he does a lot of the same things that Nocioni does on offense (except for the shooting), all while providing much better defense. Deng is athletic and versatile, a very good defender, and his offense should improve even more in his third year. Ex-Blazer Viktor Khryapa was acquired to provide depth here, but the former 1st-rounder was nothing if not mediocre in Portland.
Power Forward: P.J. Brown came over from New Orleans in the Tyson Chandler deal. Brown is an aging tough guy who still has value, especially if he can bounce back from last year's substandard offensive output. When in his element, Brown can rebound, mix it up inside, and be valuable while not demanding the ball -- an underrated talent on a team with scorers like Deng and Gordon. It remains to be seen, however, if last year's decline was the beginning of the end for Brown, who will be 37 this season. Tyrus Thomas was taken with the 4th overall pick in this past June's NBA Draft. Thomas is an athletic freak with tremendous upside, and he has surprisingly well-developed skills for such a young, athletic player. That said, it remains to be seen how much of a contribution he will make as a rookie. Malik Allen will return to Chicago's frontcourt, and he's a decent reserve who can score some.
Center: It took 4 years and $60 million, but the Bulls nabbed Ben Wallace, the top free agent in a weak class. Wallace will make Chicago's D even scarier (they were already a Top-10 team a year ago), and will add rebounding to a team that was middle-of-the-road in that department. But is he that much of an improvement over Tyson Chandler? Maybe, maybe not. At any rate, Wallace will add leadership to a Chicago team that relied on young starters last season, and will make this team tougher and more phsyical. The underrated Mike Sweetney will be Wallace's backup. The book on Sweetney hasn't changed much since he came into the league -- he's a fine offensive player, but a poor defender.
Outlook: The biggest boon to Chicago may not be the Wallace signing at all, but rather the continued offensive development of their young stars. If they play their cards right, the Bulls could be among the better teams in the East, and even push Detroit for the division crown. The Wallace deal was an interesting decision that may end up hurting the team down the road, but for now it will make them a serious contender.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (Projected: 45-37)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
50-32, Finished 2nd in NBA Central Division Scored 8002 points, Allowed 7819 points Expected W-L: 48-34 Coached by Mike Brown (50-32) Pace Factor: 89.8 (19th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 108.0 (9th out of 30) Defense - 105.3 (14th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .527 (7th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost East Conf Semis (4-3) to Detroit Pistons Won East Conf 1st Rd (4-2) over Washington Wizards
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Eric Snow 9.5 B
SG Larry Hughes 16.0 D
SF LeBron James 25.5 B
PF Drew Gooden 16.0 D
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas 17.0 B
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PG2 Damon Jones 10.5 D
SG2 Shannon Brown 12.5 C
SF2 Ira Newble 7.0 B
PF2 Donyell Marshall 13.5 D
C2 Anderson Varejao 15.5 A
BN David Wesley 10.0 C
BN Sasha Pavlovic 8.0 C
BN Scot Pollard 11.5 C
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Proj. ORtg: 106.9 (11th)
Proj. DRtg: 105.4 (13th)Point Guard: The Cavs have, um, point guard issues. Eric Snow is a tough customer who can defend, run an offense, and pass the ball extremely well. But he can't score to save his life, almost never shoots, and when he does, there's basically a 60% (or better) chance that points are not going to result. At the other end of the spectrum is Damon Jones, a terrific shooter that adds practically nothing else, at either end (he's a truly abysmal defender, too). David Wesley was acquired over the summer, but, ironically, he's kind of a worst-of-both-worlds mix between the two PG's they already had -- he can shoot, defend a little, and pass, but does nothing at a high level anymore. The only good news is that the job description for a PG in the Cavs' system is basically "stay the hell out of LeBron's way". Mission accomplished.
Shooting Guard: Larry Hughes had a worst-case-scenario type of year in 2005-06, giving back all of the progress he had made in Washington. He missed 46 games with a broken finger, and was (justifiably) distracted upon his return with the news that his brother Justin had died. All of which is to say that Hughes should bounce back this year, returning to the form that netted him a 5-year, $60-million deal with Cleveland in the first place; when healthy, Hughes is a terror that can score, rebound, and attack the basket at will. Backing him up will be either rookie Shannon Brown, a good athlete with an okay-ish college statistical profile, and Aleksandar Pavlovic, a former first-round pick who has been a total bust on offense, but showed some defensive potential last year.
Small Forward: It's LeBron James' world, and we're all just living in it. Arguably the real MVP a year ago, LBJ has been better, sooner, than any of us could have imagined. At just 22 years old, he's already the NBA's best player, and could do things over the next few years that will have us rethinking this whole "Jordan is the GOAT" thing. He can score, he can drive, he can pass, he can shoot, he's improving on defense, and did I mention that's he's only 22? LeBron. Is. The. Man. Ira Newble is the backup, and Cleveland has an infatuation with him for reasons I'm still not clear on. An alleged defensive specialist, Newble didn't defend all that well when he was healthy two years ago, all while adding his trademark brutal offensive performance. Now, he's 32, and... ugh. This is not a player that helps you go to the next level. The less he sees of the floor, the better.
Power Forward: Although he wanted "Nene Money", Drew Gooden was eventually re-signed to a sane 3-year, $23-million deal. Gooden is a great rebounder and all-around offensive player, but struggles on defense. Still, he's one of the better PF's in the East. Picking up Donyell Marshall in the summer of 2005 seemed like a good idea at the time, but Marshall was a disappointment. He didn't hit nearly enough shots, and didn't do anything of note besides shoot threes (at a clip of 8 per 40 minutes). He will have to bounce back from 2006 if Cleveland wants to reach new heights this season.
Center: Zydrunas Ilgauskas is one of the best centers in the game, hands down, and he's coming off maybe the best year of his career. Ilguaskas can dominate at both ends, providing an elite low-post scoring option while largely shutting down the opponent's top big man. He is on the wrong side of 30, but has overcome early-career foot injuries to play (basically) a full schedule in each of the last four seasons. In other words, he's earned the right to be considered durable until proven fragile. Behind him is Anderson Varejao, whose Sideshow Bob-style hair belies a great basketball player. Varejao is a tremendous rebounder and defender, a Dennis Rodman-esque player who can be a serious contributor without even scoring -- a gift that comes in even handier on a team with LeBron James. Scot Pollard was signed to a 1-year deal over the summer, and he'll provide frontcourt depth and rebounding.
Outlook: The hype surrounding Cleveland this preseason is palpable. After last year's near-miss against Detroit, they've shown that they have the ability to become a truly elite team, but they're probably still a point guard and a few depth players away from joining the Miamis and Dallases of the world. Still, they'll go as far as LeBron can carry them, and if last year was indication, Cleveland fans should prepare for a season that extends well into May.
4. Indiana Pacers (Projected: 45-37)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
41-41, Finished 3rd in NBA Central Division Scored 7699 points, Allowed 7544 points Expected W-L: 47-35 Coached by Rick Carlisle (41-41) Pace Factor: 89.7 (20th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 104.3 (21st out of 30) Defense - 102.5 (4th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .494 (18th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost East Conf 1st Rd (4-2) to New Jersey Nets
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Jamaal Tinsley 14.0 B
SG Stephen Jackson 15.0 C
SF Al Harrington 16.5 D
PF Jermaine O'Neal 20.0 B
C Jeff Foster 13.5 B
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PG2 S. Jasikevicius 14.0 B
SG2 Marquis Daniels 15.0 B
SF2 Danny Granger 15.0 C
PF2 Maceo Baston 16.0 D
C2 David Harrison 12.5 D
BN Darrell Armstrong 8.5 C
BN Orien Greene 10.0 A
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Proj. ORtg: 105.0 (23rd)
Proj. DRtg: 103.7 (5th)Point Guard: Jamaal Tinsley is generally regarded as one of the league's best all-around point guards, but he was an all-around disappointment last season. He was limited to just 42 games, and hasn't played 70 or more in four years. When healthy, Tinsley has great speed and passing skills, and is one of the best rebounding and defensive PG's around, but he must get back to making threes and getting to the line frequently to be an effective player. If he isn't, Indiana really hopes that Sarunas Jasikevicius will be. The Lithuanian guard is a great shooter and passer, but needs to be more consistent. He started last year strong, but faded late, so conditioning could be an issue as well. Backing up those two are Darrell Armstrong and Orien Greene. Greene is a tough defender, but is clueless on offense; Armstrong is a good locker-room influence who has next to nothing left in the tank.
Shooting Guard: It is unknown how much Stephen Jackson's recent arrest will impact his future with the team, but if he does play the whole season, you know what you'll be getting. Jackson is a very good scorer, a player that can attack the rim or score from long distance. He's also a pretty good rebounder, even though he slipped in that phase of the game a year ago. He's also a character problem waiting to happen, as evidenced by his frequent legal troubles. Should Jackson be legally indisposed, newly-acquired Marquis Daniels can step in capably. Daniels is a true Renaissance man who can do a little bit of everything on court, but is not spectacular in any one area. Prospects James White and Jimmie "Snap" Hunter could also see time if Jackson's second-half trial interferes with his play.
Small Forward: After spending all summer trying to work a sign-and-trade with Atlanta, Indiana finally got their man, Al Harrington. Why they were so anxious to lavish nearly $9 million/year on him is unclear, though: Harrington is a good scorer who can rebound, but he's ultimately not worth that much money, especially when you figure in the fact that he's not a good defender. The Harrington pick-up makes even less sense when one considers that the Pacers already had a perfectly good small forward on hand -- Danny Granger. If Chris Paul didn't exist, Granger would gotten a lot more Rookie of the Year ink; as it stands, he simply showed off a versatile game that's sure to improve in his second year. Granger alone would have sufficed, but since Indy picked up Harrington as well, they will sport one of the best SF duos in the NBA.
Power Forward: Weird run-ins with the law aside, Jermaine O'Neal remains the premier power forward in the Eastern Conference. He can score at will in the low post, rebound, swat shots, and generally terrorize opponents at both ends. The struggle for O'Neal is staying on the floor; he missed 31 games last season, and 38 the year before. His durability is particularly important, because when O'Neal plays, the Pacers always have a chance to win. Backup Maceo Baston was a nice addition to the team, as he has been playing well in Europe for a number of years.
Center: The underrated Jeff Foster will once again headline a center-by-committee approach by the Pacers. Foster is one of the game's great rebounders, and he's tremendously efficient when he does choose to shoot, but he simply doesn't provide much scoring punch. David Harrison, on the other hand, can score in the post but is tremendously inefficient in doing so, and doesn't do much other than that.
Outlook: Hey, this season can't possibly go as badly as last season, right? If it does, Rick Carlisle will be out of a job before the season is over, and the franchise will likely begin rebuilding. This team still has the talent to (perhaps) be a home-court team in the first round of the playoffs, but they could just as easily drop out of the playoff picture entirely. Just about the only thing that's been predictable about the Indiana teams of recent vintage has been their unpredictability.
5. Milwaukee Bucks (Projected: 43-39)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
40-42, Finished 5th in Central Division Scored 8020 points, Allowed 8105 points Expected W-L: 38-44 Coached by Terry Stotts (40-42) Pace Factor: 91.2 (13th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 106.1 (15th out of 30) Defense - 107.6 (24th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .495 (17th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost East Conf 1st Rd (4-1) to Detroit Pistons
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Maurice Williams 15.0 D
SG Michael Redd 17.0 C
SF Bobby Simmons 14.5 B
PF Charlie Villanueva 16.0 D
C Andrew Bogut 16.5 C
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PG2 Steve Blake 13.5 D
SG2 Charlie Bell 14.0 B
SF2 Ruben Patterson 14.0 C
PF2 Brian Skinner 12.0 C
C2 Dan Gadzuric 16.5 D
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Proj. ORtg: 107.7 (5th)
Proj. DRtg: 107.1 (25th)Point Guard: After dealing away T.J. Ford, Milwaukee will go with Mo Williams at the point. Williams is a better overall offensive player than Ford anyway, but is not in Ford's league as a playmaker. He can score, though, and is a decent starting point guard. Charlie Bell was a revelation last season, and is the team's best two-way guard. He can also shoot and handle the ball, but just like Williams, he lacks Ford's court vision. One player who can pass on Ford's level is Steve Blake, who was picked up over the offseason in the Magloire trade. Blake can shoot the ball as well, but is an awful defender.
Shooting Guard: Michael Redd remains one of the top guards in the NBA, and he is coming off of his best season yet. Redd is a deadly-accurate shooter and a good ballhandler, but his best asset is his scoring ability, which he unleashed in full force last year. Bell will also figure in behind Redd, since he's more of a 2-guard trapped in a point guard's body. The Redd/Bell combo at SG should be among the NBA's best shooting guard tandems.
Small Forward: Bobby Simmons is certainly a nice enough player, capable of great versatility, but his output in 2006 was probably not what the Bucks had in mind when they issued him a 5-year, $47-million contract in August of 2005. Simmons simply didn't score that much, his rebounding continued a four-year downward trend, and his turnover problems of 2003-04 resurfaced. While he's a solid all-around player who can play good defense, one has to wonder whether his great contract year of 2004-05 was a fluke. Ruben Patterson was acquired in a straight-up trade with Denver for Joe Smith. While Patterson's rep as a top defensive stopper is probably a bit outdated, he's a decent offensive contributor that can score with efficiency and rebound.
Power Forward: Depending on how Ford pans out for Toronto, Charlie Villanueva could be a steal for Milwaukee. Much-maligned at the draft, Villaneuva responded as a rookie by being a damn good offensive player, particularly when it came to scoring. Moreover, he should be able to improve further in that area during his second season. Defensively, he needs work, and he could stand to be a more aggressive rebounder, though. Brian Skinner also joined the team in the Magloire deal; he is a rebounding specialist who doesn't do much on offense and is undersized on defense.
Center: Last year, Andrew Bogut turned in a rookie campaign worthy of the 1st overall pick in the draft. He didn't score a lot, but was efficient when he did, and he was able to contribute in other ways, specifically his passing and rebounding. He, like Villaneuva, is another young member of Milwaukee's frontcourt that should benefit from a second year of NBA experience. Behind Bogut is the high-energy Dan Gadzuric, an underrated player who can score, rebound, and is getting better at handling the ball in the post. While Bogut has defensive potential, though, Gadzuric is essentially a lost cause at that end, a fact that keeps him from getting more playing time. Veteran benchwarmer Ha Seung-Jin was also acquired from Portland for depth, but this is one thin post corps behind Villaneuva, Bogut, and Gadzuric.
Outlook: The Bucks could be a team on the rise -- after all, they made the playoffs last year, and their young players should continue to improve... However, they outperformed their Expected W-L record (see: Plexiglas Principle), the jury is still out on their defense (and Terry Stotts' future as coach, for that matter), and they're playing in a brutal division. They could certainly return to the postseason, but it's far from a slam-dunk.
