2006-07 NBA Capsules: Atlantic
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by user Davis21wylie
| 2006-07 NBA Capsules | |
| Atlantic | |
| Central | |
| Southeast | |
| Southwest | |
| Northwest | |
| Pacific | |
| The Playoffs | |
| 101 Reasons... | |
| Rookies Most Likely To... | |
Each team's capsule contains the key info about their chances in the 2006-07 season. The depth charts feature projected Player Efficiency Ratings, John Hollinger's all-in-one method of player evaluation. More info on PER is available here, but suffice to say that anything above 20.00 means you're doing very well, 15.00 is average, and anything under 10.00 means you're clinging to a spot in the league. Projections were created using Basketball-Reference's Similarity Scores. Defensive grades reflect man-to-man ability and awareness in a team context. Any other questions about the statistical methods in the preview are addressed here.
1. New Jersey Nets (Projected: 46-36)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
49-33, Finished 1st in NBA Atlantic Division Scored 7691 points, Allowed 7579 points Expected W-L: 45-37 Coached by Lawrence Frank (49-33) Pace Factor: 89.8 (18th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 103.9 (24th out of 30) Defense - 102.3 (3rd out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .520 (9th out of 30) Playoffs: Lost East Conf Semis (4-1) to Miami Heat Won East Conf 1st Rd (4-2) over Indiana Pacers
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Jason Kidd 18.5 B
SG Vince Carter 21.0 C
SF Richard Jefferson 17.5 A
PF Jason Collins 8.0 A
C Nenad Krstic 15.5 C
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PG2 Marcus Williams 14.0 D
SG2 Eddie House 14.0 C
SF2 Bostjan Nachbar 10.0 C
PF2 Clifford Robinson 11.0 C
C2 Mikki Moore 11.0 D
BN Jay Williams 11.0 F
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Proj. ORtg: 105.5 (17th)
Proj. DRtg: 103.7 (4th)Point Guard: Jason Kidd continues to lead the Nets with his tremendous all-around game. Though he's not a great shooter (but not a bad one, either), Kidd is a fantastic passer, defender, rebounder, and leader. Quite simply, he is the engine that drives New Jersey. Behind Kidd is rookie Marcus Williams. A steal at the 22nd pick, Williams was the best PG available in the draft, and will immediately learn from the best. Also in the mix are Jeff McInnis and former Duke star Jay Williams. McInnis is your standard-fare replacement-level PG, though he has some offensive upside (career PER:13.4). Williams is trying to come back from a devastating car wreck suffered three years ago; he was a disappointment before the accident, but seems to have the inside track on the 3rd PG job here.
Shooting Guard: Vince Carter is still one of the NBA's best players, and showed last year that he can be as dominant as ever when motivated. Carter can opt out of his deal after this season, so it will be interesting to see if he plays harder than ever with the incentive of even more cash hanging over his head. The backup job will be fought over between 2nd-year man Antoine Wright and ex-Sun Eddie House. House is a dynamite scorer who could probably stand to rein in his offensive exuberance; Wright was an awful bust (PER: 0.66) last season after being taken with the 15th pick in the draft. Rookie Hassan Adams could also work his way into the equation, if he shows enough of a jump shot.
Small Forward: Richard Jefferson is simply an outstanding talent on the wing. RJ can score, shoot, pass, and -- most importantly -- defend, which takes a lot of pressure off of Carter. It could be argued that, even with Kidd and Carter present, Jefferson is New Jersey's Most Valuable Player. Bostjan Nachbar will serve as Jefferson's backup. A former 1st-rounder, Nachbar has never shown much ability at either end, and will be counted on only as a spot-up shooter.
Power Forward: Jason Collins and Krstic are basically interchangable at the 4 and 5 spots. Collins is an outstanding defensive player who plays with great energy, but he adds literally nothing on offense, and is a disappointing rebounder. Still, his D is a big reason that New Jersey has one of the best defenses in the league, and he'll continue to earn minutes as long as he keeps it up at that end. Clifford Robinson was brought back, and he can shoot and defend a little. Rookie Josh Boone may also figure into the PF situation at some point, but he's too raw to make an impact this year.
Center: Nenad Krstic is a burgeoning (and underrated) big man who has some shooting range and is developing a nice post-up game. He is an inconsistent defender and soft rebounder, but has time to work on both (he's only 23). Mikki Moore was brought in as the backup; he has decent offensive ability for an end-of-the-bench type, but was disappointing at both ends in Seattle last year.
Outlook: The Atlantic is weak, and the Nets are easily the best team in the division. Another big year out of Carter/Kidd/Jefferson, plus further development by Krstic, will make them a contender for the conference crown as well. However, the rest of the East is catching up, and they may not have more than one year left, especially if Carter jumps ship.
2. Boston Celtics (Projected: 37-45)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
33-49, Finished 3rd in NBA Atlantic Division Scored 8033 points, Allowed 8159 points Expected W-L: 37-45 Coached by Doc Rivers (33-49) Pace Factor: 92.2 (8th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 105.1 (19th out of 30) Defense - 106.9 (19th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .472 (25th out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Sebastian Telfair 14.5 C
SG Wally Szczerbiak 17.0 D
SF Paul Pierce 21.0 C
PF Al Jefferson 16.0 D
C Kendrick Perkins 15.0 C
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PG2 Delonte West 14.0 C
SG2 Tony Allen 13.5 A
SF2 Luke Jackson 10.0 D
PF2 Ryan Gomes 14.0 D
C2 Theo Ratliff 11.5 C
BN Brian Scalabrine 8.5 B
BN Michael Olowokandi 8.5 B
BN Rajon Rondo 13.5 C
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Proj. ORtg: 105.1 (20th)
Proj. DRtg: 106.5 (19th)Point Guard: Sebastian Telfair largely disappointed in Portland, but they may have been too hasty in dealing him to Boston: his top comps at age 20 last season were Mike Bibby, Tony Parker, and Isiah Thomas. That's not to say that Telfair will achieve similar stature, but he will be given every chance to do so this year in Beantown. Delonte West was the starter last season, and he's a team favorite. He can do a little bit of everything, and can play some SG too if the need arises. Rookie Rajon Rondo has looked very good in the summer and preseason, and is another athletic, all-around type. He, like Telfair, must improve his shooting.
Shooting Guard: '06 pick-up Wally Szczerbiak will either start here or swap with Pierce and start at the 3. Szczerbiak is an excellent shooter and scorer, but a defensive liability. Tony Allen is just the opposite: a great defender who isn't much of a scorer, although he is a good shooter. Undrafted rook Allan Ray will also compete to make the roster at SG.
Small Forward: Paul Pierce remains the Truth, even if the team around him seemed false last season. Pierce is truly an elite player, a veritable gift from God that can score, shoot, attack the rim, and even rebound. If there's a complaint, it's that he was not up to his usual standards on defense last year -- but, then again, who on the Celtics was? Luke Jackson was acquired to compete with Gerald Green for the backup spot. Jackson, a former college star, has not been given much of a look at the NBA level. Green turned in a pretty good effort in his rookie season, particularly down the stretch, but may struggle to find minutes on this roster if he doesn't improve defensively. Brian Scalabrine is a good defender and energy guy, but is completely overpaid as such ($2.5 million/year).
Power Forward: Al Jefferson is a young star in the making at the 4, a dynamite rebounder who is improving his scoring touch. The same can be said of Ryan Gomes, who had a nice first year in 2005-06 as well. Neither can defend a soul, though. Either the washed-up Brian Grant or rookie Leon Powe will grab the third spot here.
Center: Kendrick Perkins is an intriguing prospect who seems poised to make a big leap forward offensively. He is already a terrific shot-blocker and rebounder, so an improved post-up game could make him a very valuable player. If Perkins falters, Theo Ratliff is available; like Perkins, he can swat shots with the best, and he offers more offensively than Perkins at this point, but he doesn't rebound. Former flop Michael Olowokandi is also on the roster, but he might not even see the floor.
Outlook: Boston's offense took a tumble last year, and the team fell out of the playoffs. GM Danny Ainge made some decent moves in the offseason, nabbing Telfair (at the expense of Randy Foye, however) and drafting Rondo. But it just doesn't seem like enough, even in a weak division, to get back to the playoffs. If the youth develops, they've got a shot, but the more likely outcome is another sub-.500 year.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (Projected: 36-46)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
38-44, Finished 2nd in NBA Atlantic Division Scored 8147 points, Allowed 8307 points Expected W-L: 35-47 Coached by Maurice Cheeks (38-44) Pace Factor: 92.7 (6th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 106.3 (13th out of 30) Defense - 107.8 (25th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .485 (19th out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Allen Iverson 20.5 C
SG Kyle Korver 13.5 D
SF Andre Iguodala 15.5 A
PF Chris Webber 19.0 D
C Samuel Dalembert 14.5 C
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PG2 Kevin Ollie 9.0 C
SG2 Willie Green 9.0 D
SF2 Rodney Carney 10.5 B
PF2 Alan Henderson 12.0 D
C2 Steven Hunter 14.0 C
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Proj. ORtg: 105.1 (21st)
Proj. DRtg: 107.0 (24th)Point Guard: Despite rampant trade rumors over the summer, Allen Iverson will return to Philly for an 11th season. At the ripe old age of 30, A.I. enjoyed one of his best years in 2006, scoring 33 points per game, attacking the rim as much as ever, shooting a high (for him at least) percentage, and avoiding turnovers despite the huge usage. In short, he remains one of the most valuable players in the league. Backup Kevin Ollie is not quite as valuable as Iverson, but he's a decent defender who can distribute the ball, avoid mistakes, and provide leadership.
Shooting Guard: Kyle Korver is an all-world shooter, but he does little else, including on defense. Behind Korver is Willie Green, another very limited player who does nothing but score -- inefficiently, that is, taking away shots from Iverson. Louis Williams could see action at SG by default; he's a destitute man's Iverson who loves to beat his man off the dribble, but he has shooting, turnover, and defensive issues.
Small Forward: At last, a player worthy to patrol the Wachovia Center floor with Iverson: Andre Iguodala is an outstanding athlete with the potential to turn into one of the best all-around players in the NBA. He's already a very good defender, he attacks the basket at an alarming rate (21% of his FGA's were dunks), and he is a good rebounder for his position as well. If he adds a jumper, he could be a devastating complement to Iverson. Rookie Rodney Carney is another athletic specimen, but his offensive game was weak in college, aside from 3-point shooting. He could, however, develop into a Raja Bell type who shoots and defends well.
Power Forward: Chris Webber is a bad fit in Philly, given A.I.'s usage and Webber's tendency to coast on the periphery of plays, but he can still help the team with his all-around offensive skills. He is a joke defensively, though, and constantly needs help defenders to bail him out. Alan Henderson was picked up from Cleveland, and he generally stays out of the way on offense while rebounding reasonably well. Shavlik Randolph was surprisingly decent last year in limited playing time, and could see more minutes this season.
Center: Samuel Dalembert is an enigma -- he looked ready to make a big leap forward in 2003-04, but has stalled out over the last two seasons. He's still a high-efficency big man who rebounds well and blocks some shots, but he always leaves you wanting more. Steven Hunter is an underrated backup who provides athleticism, shot-blocking, and some offensive ability.
Outlook: Even though he wasn't moved this summer, the A.I. drama is far from over. The roster consists of Iverson, Iguodala, a fading Webber, and an uninspiring collection of role players, the sum of which is probably worth only 35 wins. It would be nice to see Iverson mount one last charge, but the Sixers just aren't good enough to allow him to do it. If they're tanking in January, look for heavy trade talks to surround The Answer once again.
4. Toronto Raptors (Projected: 34-48)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
27-55, Finished 4th in Atlantic Division Scored 8287 points, Allowed 8532 points Expected W-L: 33-49 Coached by Sam Mitchell (27-55) Pace Factor: 91.2 (14th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 109.6 (5th out of 30) Defense - 112.5 (28th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .454 (26th out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG T.J. Ford 14.5 C
SG Anthony Parker 14.0 C
SF Morris Peterson 14.5 B
PF Chris Bosh 20.5 C
C Rasho Nesterovic 11.0 B
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PG2 Jose Calderon 12.0 D
SG2 Fred Jones 11.5 B
SF2 Joey Graham 12.5 D
PF2 Andrea Bargnani 13.0 D
C2 Pape Sow 10.0 D
BN Kris Humphries 11.0 D
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Proj. ORtg: 107.1 (8th)
Proj. DRtg: 109.7 (28th)Point Guard: T.J. Ford was the headline pickup (along with Bargnani) of Toronto's off-season. He has all the speed in the world, can pass, and is even a surprisingly effective rebounder for a PG... but he has his disadvantages -- namely, shooting the ball and defending. If Ford gives off Steve Nash vibes, the Villaneuva trade will be a success; but if he plays like he has over his career so far, it will be a failure. Jose Calderon will back up Ford. As a rookie, he displayed great passing ability, but his jumper is lacking, and he needs to cut down on turnovers. Journeyman Darrick Martin returns as the Raps' 3rd PG.
Shooting Guard: One of the less-heralded but smartest moves by Toronto this summer was the signing of Anthony Parker, a former 1st-round pick who has been tearing up Euroleague for years. He is a good offensive option, and should mesh well with the Raptors' up-tempo scheme. Fred Jones was also acquired in the offseason; the former Pacer has not reached his potential offensively, but is a capable perimeter defender.
Small Forward: The oft-overlooked Morris Peterson remains entrenched as the starter at this position. Peterson is a good-enough scorer who can shoot and rebound a little. He's also a quality defender, although his effort at that end slipped last season. Joey Graham sits behind Mo Pete, and he's coming off a fairly poor rookie year. He showed decent shooting ability, but was plagued by turnovers, and he didn't rebound or defend nearly enough.
Power Forward: Chris Bosh is one of the best young big men in the game, an All-Star who does almost everything with aplomb. He could stand to hit the boards and defend harder, but he's 22 and has Kevin Garnett-esque potential. He is, by far, Toronto's best player. Top overall pick Andrea Bargnani will be the backup here by default. Bargnani is quite skilled, and almost certainly will pan out better than recent Euro flops like Nik Tskitishvili, but is more of a SF at this point, and hasn't got the strength yet to compete down low in the NBA. That said, he's a dynamic scorer, and should see plenty of minutes this season. Ex-first rounder Kris Humphries is in the Raptors' frontcourt as well. Other than rebounding well during his Utah days, Humphries seemingly did everything within his power to dispel the notion that he's a prospect.
Center: Rasho Nesterovic should improve this position considerably simply by not being Rafael Araujo. Nesterovic is a modest-at-best offensive player, but is a good defender. He's expensive, though -- he has $23 million left on the 3 remaining years of his contract. Pape Sow will be the backup, but in two seasons he has proven himself to be completely bereft of offensive ability. 6'9" Jorge Garbajosa will also get a shot after playing well in Euroleague and the World Championships, but he may be too undersized to stick.
Outlook: Toronto has vastly improved themselves since last season, thanks to the draft and several European signings. The big test of Bryan Colangelo's acumen, however, will be the Ford-Villanueva swap. However it turns out, though, the Raptors at least now have a clear plan, something they haven't had in at least 5 years.
5. New York Knicks (Projected: 30-52)
2005-06 Summary, courtesy of B-R.com:
23-59, Finished 5th in Atlantic Division Scored 7842 points, Allowed 8367 points Expected W-L: 24-58 Coached by Larry Brown (23-59) Pace Factor: 90.8 (16th out of 30) League Pace Factor - 90.6 Rating: Offense - 103.7 (25th out of 30) Defense - 111.3 (26th out of 30) League Rating - 106.2 RPI: .441 (30th out of 30)
The Rotation Proj PER Def
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PG Stephon Marbury 17.5 D
SG Jamal Crawford 15.5 D
SF Jared Jeffries 13.0 B
PF Channing Frye 17.0 C
C Eddy Curry 16.0 D
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PG2 Nate Robinson 15.5 C
SG2 Steve Francis 16.0 C
SF2 Quentin Richardson 12.5 D
PF2 David Lee 14.5 D
C2 Jerome James 9.0 C
BN Jalen Rose 13.0 D
BN Malik Rose 10.5 D
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Proj. ORtg: 105.2 (19th)
Proj. DRtg: 109.5 (27th)Point Guard: Stephon Marbury suffered through a disappointing season last year, posting his lowest PER since 1998... his second year. He wasn't awful, mind you, but he was clearly not the same player he had been -- he scored less, distributed less, couldn't create his own shot as often, and was not on the mark when he did shoot. At his best, Marbury is an elite PG that can create for others and himself, but only time will tell if he can return to that form. Tiny Nate Robinson is Marbury's backup, and he enjoyed a solid rookie year, scoring well as a sparkplug off the bench. He is not a playmaker, however, and must improve his passing if he wants to avoid being caught in a logjam at SG. Former Temple Owl Mardy Collins was drafted for depth. Collins is big, but lacks athleticism and offensive skill.
Shooting Guard: Jamal Crawford is once again the starter here, despite management's best attempts to replace him with bigger stars. Crawford is a solid player who can score and shoot a little from the arc, but he does not attack the rim enough and is a poor defender. Steve Francis is a classic tweener, and will get action at the 1 and 2. Francis was once a superstar, but his game (and commitment level) has wavered in recent years. That said, he couldn't possibly be as bad as he was after joining the Knicks last season, right? Right?
Small Forward: Despite their bizarre cap situation, New York used their MLE to ink former Wizard Jared Jeffries, if not simply to bolster their miserable defense. Defense, however, is just about Jeffries' only above-average skill -- he doesn't wow with rebounding or offensive contributions (only 10.0 pts/40 min. last year, and that was a good year). At least Jeffries is a character guy, which is more than you could say for most of the Knicks last season. Quentin Richardson and Jalen Rose, two more formerly well-regarded players whose reps are in free-fall, will also get a crack at starting. Richardson is often injured, but (we assume) he can still shoot threes and rebound. Rose is a scorer, plain and simple. Neither guy plays a lick of defense. Renaldo Balkman was drafted in the first round. That's all I'm saying at this point.
Power Forward: One of the lone bright spots in the 2005-06 New York season was the emergence of rookie Channing Frye. Frye is a superb scoring big man, and may have been the Knicks' best player last season. He must improve in other areas, however, particularly at the defensive end. David Lee was another productive rookie for NY last year; he proved himself to be a terrific athlete who can rebound and finish inside. Malik Rose will be back for another season, but there is little left in the tank at this point.
Center: Heart condition or not, Eddy Curry was one of the Knicks' best offensive options last season, scoring 21.0 pts/40 min on a nice 60.4 TS%. He, too, could stand to rebound and defend more aggressively, though. Isiah Thomas probably wishes that Jerome James was never born, but the team is stuck with him and his laughable deal.
Outlook: Isiah Thomas is now the coach, and he'll have to play the hand he's dealt himself. It's not a royal flush, either, but if he could manage the egos (including his own) and somehow sort out a rotation from the insane amount of redundancy on the roster, the Knicks could sniff 35-40 wins. The good money's on another disaster, though, and Thomas' own firing at the end of the year. What a mess.
