'07-'08 NBA Preview: The Works
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As promised, its NBA preview time. I'm gonna cover each division (* denotes playoff team) and pick the major individual awards, including a few sleepers for each one. Enjoy...
Atlantic Division
1. Boston Celtics*
2. New Jersey Nets*
3. Toronto Raptors*
4. New York Knicks
5. Philadelphia 76ers
Boston may not have much depth, but there's no one in this division who can legitimately and consistently cover Kevin Garnett except for maybe Chris Bosh. Expect KG to torch New Jersey so thoroughly that the Nets' advantages in other areas will become a moot point. Jersey has the potential to win this division, but I don't trust Richard Jefferson to be consistent or Jason Kidd to stay completely healthy with the wear and tear his 34-year-old body has taken. Toronto is still fairly young and will be a real danger to the division, but its exactly the reason they won't finish better than third. New York is still such a mess that if they had any less talent than they have, they'd be a mortal lock to finish last. If Zach Randolph couldn't stay out of trouble in Portland, Oregon, resisting the temptations of the Big Apple should be fun to watch. Philly probably won't win many games this year, but a star will be officially born this year. Andre Igoudala should have a breakout year.
Central Division
1. Chicago Bulls*
2. Cleveland Cavaliers*
3. Detroit Pistons*
4. Milwaukee Bucks
5. Indiana Pacers
Chicago has about as much talent as any team in the entire Eastern Conference. Luol Deng showed what he's made of in the '07 playoffs and has just scratched the surface. Expect a big season from him especially with solid guard play around him in Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich. If the Bulls can get even efficient offense out of Ben Wallace, watch out. Cleveland should take second in this division just from King James' brilliance. He still doesn't have much of a supporting cast (especially since the front office made a big fat 0 transactions this offseason), but this team made it to the Finals this past season with the same roster. Detroit is an intriguing squad; it's a much older team than you might realize with almost half of their roster having 8 or more seasons under their belt, including 12 years for 'Sheed, 11 years for key reserve Antonio McDyess and 10 years for Chauncey Billups. The other half of the roster is very raw and inexperienced, so the elder statesmen will have to carry the load. Milwaukee has the potential to make a huge leap, but that's a bit of a stretch; to make the huge leap, Michael Redd and Charlie Villanueva will have to stay healthy, Andrew Bogut will have to play like a #1 overall pick and they'll have to find an efficient bench. Indiana is a mess, but not a New York mess. Jermaine O'Neal is disgruntled, but still a good player. The problem lies in the cast of characters around him, all of which are talented but none of which have proven good enough to be a viable second option.
Southeast Division
1. Orlando Magic*
2. Washington Wizards*
3. Miami Heat
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Charlotte Bobcats
This division might be the most competitive in the entire league. Stop laughing, I'm serious. Each team has legitimate question marks that could lead to their undoing, but someone has to win this division. Orlando has one of the brightest young stars in the league, in Dwight Howard, who is a near lock to go for 20 and 10 every night. Rashard Lewis adds instant perimeter offense and J.J. Redick tore up the summer leagues and with the two previously mentioned players, Redick will have to do nothing but spot up and shoot. The problem with Orlando lies with their lack of a proven point guard. Jameer Nelson seems primed for a breakout season, but can he carry the load at point guard? Washington will be fun to watch, if nothing else, with the healthy return of NBA Live cover boy Gilbert Arenas. Add Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison to the mix and you have a lethal mix of offensive firepower. The problem with the Wiz lies in the rest of the roster. Who else is even remotely consistent on this roster. Miami seems like an odd pick for third in this division, and an even odder omission from the playoff hunt, but outside of Dwyane Wade, what do they have? Shaq will still have a few dominant performances, but the key word there is "few." Jason Williams is still a middle-of-the-road point guard and Smush Parker isn't exactly an upgrade to your roster. Udonis Haslem is still far from a world-beater and the rest of the roster is either young and raw or old and rickety. Atlanta still has no point guard and no center and far too many "tweener" type players. Joe Johnson will continue to play excellent basketball and the development of Josh Smith and Marvin Williams can elevate this team to playoff contention. Charlotte and Atlanta will vie for the cellar of the division because both teams are honestly a year or two away from legitimate playoff talks. The addition of Jason Richardson is nice and should allow Gerald Wallace to play more of an inside and mid-range role where he will be more comfortable. The loss of Brevin Knight will be missed unless Raymond Felton can become more efficient. Emeka Okafor is injury-prone, which would be a major negative if they want to compete with the likes of Orlando and Miami.
Southwest Division
1. Dallas Mavericks*
2. San Antonio Spurs*
3. Houston Rockets*
4. New Orleans Hornets
5. Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas is still the most talented team in the division. The jury is still out on whether or not their built to win anything in the playoffs. Dirk will have a big season again and Josh Howrad will continue to be an under-the-radar star. San Antonio will continue to do what they do: play efficient, team basketball and coast into the playoffs, where they're built to win. Houston's addition of Rick Adelman will be interesting to watch. The style Adelman will bring to this team will be great fun to watch with T-Mac and company. New Orleans is still a season or two away in the wild, wild west; Chris Paul could become the best point guard in the league by season's end if he stays healthy, and David West's relative anonymity should be over with soon. Memphis doesn't have much outside of Pau Gasol and Mike Miller. How well Mike Conley Jr.'s jump shot develops is something to watch for this season; with an efficient perimeter game, Conley could quickly become one of the league's best point guards.
Northwest Division
1. Denver Nuggets*
2. Utah Jazz*
3. Portland Trailblazers
4. Seattle Sonics
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver's overall talent should elevate them to the top of this division. 'Melo and AI are one of the best (if not the best) offensive duos in the league. With Marcus Camby and Nene on the interior, points and boards are hard to come by, especially if we see the playoff version of Nene for more than a few weeks of the season. Utah's deep playoff run might have been a bit of a fluke; Houston choked in the first round and Golden State was in match-up hell against them. The Spurs showed what the Jazz were really made of. Expect them to get a lower seed, but play very well throughout the season. Losing Greg Oden for the season won't be total devastation for the Blazers because of the huge amount of talent they have. Brandon Roy could become one of the league's best shooting guards in the next few years, especially if he keeps up the brilliance of his rookie year. Look for LaMarcus Aldridge to have a breakout year. Seattle had quite an offseason, losing their two best players and adding a franchise player through the draft, all while having new ownership trying to find a way to move the team from Seattle. Kevin Durant will get plenty of shots with the loss of Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen. Watch out for Chris Wilcox. Minnesota won't be much good, but watch the development of Al Jefferson. He was as hot as any big man in the league at the end of last year and he could make a quantum leap into the league's elite if he can build on that.
Pacific Division
1. Phoenix Suns*
2. Golden State Warriors*
3. Los Angeles Lakers*
4. Sacramento Kings
5. Los Angeles Clippers
Phoenix is by far the cream of the crop in this division. Nash and Stoudemire are the modern day Stockton-Malone and allowing Raja Bell to spot up for open threes is huge. Shawn Marion is the perfect fit for this style of play, and probably won't be traded since the Suns' window of opportunity is closing. Golden State is a bit of a risky pick for second in the division, since they're style of play will put up points, but is just as likely to allow even more points. Electing Stephen Jackson as team captain was one of the biggest, "So weird, you can't make it up," moments I can ever remember in the NBA. It's a move that will either work brilliantly or blow up like Jackson's temper. If Baron Davis can stay healthy (big IF), and if the Warriors can replace Jason Richardson, Oakland will be rockin' again come playoff time. The Lakers are going to be a dramatic saga all season with the Kobe Bryant trade rumors. With or without Black Mamba, the Lakers probably won't be much good. Lamar Odom is the model of frustrating inconsistency and the rest of their roster is either strictly role players or raw young talent that will need another season or two. Sacramento will need Mike Bibby to regain the form of 2002 and will need Ron Artest to not lose his mind for more than a few seconds a week. New coach Reggie Theus is a bit of a questionable hire, but only time will tell. Kevin Martin should become an even more steady scorer, even after last year's breakout season. The Clippers will be bad without Elton Brand...VERY bad.
Playoff Picture
Eastern Conference Finals - Boston over Chicago, 4-3. Boston's big three should be too much for Chi-town over a 7 game series, especially if the Celts can find a bench (which I believe they'll be able to). If the Bulls can find a way to acquire Kobe, all bets are off.
Western Conference Finals - Phoenix over San Antonio, 4-3. This is Phoenix's year. Amare will be a year better and the Suns probably should have won the series last year. The Spurs have never won back-to-back and that's a streak that will continue.
NBA Finals - Phoenix over Boston, 4-2. I repeat, this is Phoenix's year. Boston's defensive deficiencies will never be more apparent than in this series. Finally a ring for Nash and Boston's big three will have to wait another year. [Finals MVP: Steve Nash, Phoenix]
Regular Season Awards
MVP: Amare Stoudamire, Phoenix. Last year's First Team All-NBA selection wasn't a fluke. He showed flashes of a mid-range jumper last season, and if that develops more the combination of that with his athleticism and power will be unstoppable. [Sleeper: Dwight Howard, Orlando. He might start slow until Rashard Lewis and J.J. Redick hit their stride shooting from the perimeter, but when those two start shooting well, Howard's interior dominance will shine.]
Defensive Player of the Year: Ben Wallace, Chicago. Should bounce back after a relatively bad year by his standards. Maybe the headband does something for his game...[Sleeper: Tyson Chandler, New Orleans. Chandler has been a huge teas up until last year. If Chandler can build on last year, he could become an intimidating interior presence in this league, much like Marcus Camby.]
Rookie of the Year: Kevin Durant, Seattle. This is an easy pick. There aren't any particularly good on-ball defenders in his division and with the absence of any other legit offensive threat, Durant will get plenty of shots. [Sleeper: Al Horford, Atlanta. It's hard to consider the third overall pick as a sleeper for Rookie of the Year, but Durant will likely be such a runaway pick for the award that every other rookie will be considered a long shot. Horford is smart and strong, one of the few players in this draft that was physically ready to step onto an NBA court. Atlanta has a gaping hole in the post, a hole Horford could fill with great consistency.]
Most Improved Player: Rudy Gay, Memphis. Gay's talent is scary. This could very well be a monster second year for Gay and there will be plenty of opportunities in Marc Iavaroni's wide open, uptempo style. [Sleeper: Jarrett Jack, Portland. Jack could really distinguish himself as a solid presence at the point guard spot in Portland. Much of his improvement, from a statistical standpoint at least, would rely on the development of teammates like Roy, Aldridge and Frye, but Jack should be the starter from day one.
Coach of the Year: Mike D'Antoni, Phoenix. Phoenix should be the best team in the League, making D'Antoni a fairly easy choice for this award. [Sleeper: Mike Woodson, Atlanta. A bit of a homer pick on my part, but with the flashes of brilliance the Hawks have shown in the preseason, if Woodson can get them into the playoffs, he would have to be seriously considered for the award.]
